Category 3 Chan-hom: One of Shanghai's Strongest Typhoons on Record?

By: Jeff Masters , 12:29 AM GMT on July 10, 2015

Category 3 Typhoon Chan-hom is headed northwest at 14 mph towards China, and appears poised to make landfall as one of the strongest typhoons on record for a portion of the country unused to strong typhoons. Of particular concern is Chan-hom's storm surge, which has the potential to bring the highest water levels ever observed into Shanghai, China's most populous city, with 23 million people in the metro area. In their 5:45 am EDT Friday advisory, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) put Chan-hom's central pressure at 935 mb; in their 5 am EDT Friday advisory, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) rated Chan-hom's top winds at 125 mph. A storm of this magnitude is sure to pile up a large storm surge, particularly since Chan-hom is a very large typhoon with tropical-storm force winds that extended outwards up to 310 miles from the center. This storm surge will pile up throughout the Yellow Sea, from China to the Korean Peninsula. Since the Yellow Sea is shallow and enclosed on three sides, the potential exists for some of the highest water levels ever recorded along portions of the coast south of Shanghai, to the right of where the center makes landfall. Chan-hom is likely to weaken significantly as the storm approaches landfall, due to cooler waters, higher wind shear, and interaction with land. JTWC and JMA were forecasting on Friday morning (U.S. EDT) that Chan-hom would make landfall between 06 - 09 UTC Saturday (2 am - 4 am EDT, or 3 - 5 pm JST.) In their 5:45 am EDT Friday forecast, JMA predicted that Chan-hom would have a 950 mb pressure and sustained 10-minute average winds of 90 mph at landfall. In their 5 am EDT Friday forecast, JTWC predicted that Chan-hom would be a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds (1-minute average) at landfall. Even at this lowered intensity, Chan-hom would still be the strongest landfalling storm to hit within 200 miles of Shanghai in at least 35 years. On Friday morning, the typhoon was undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, where the inner eyewall collapses and is replaced by a larger-diameter outer eyewall. While this process weakens the peak winds near the center, it spreads the typhoon-strength winds over a larger area, increasing the size of the storm surge.


Figure 1. Typhoon Chan-hom as seen by radar on Okinawa at 7:45 pm EDT Thursday (08:45 JST Friday, July 10), 2015. At the time, Chan-hom was a Category 4 storm with 130 mph winds. Image credit: JMA.

Strong typhoons hitting near Shanghai: a rare occurrence
China gets hit by about nine tropical cyclones (tropical depression, tropical storms, or typhoons) each year (Chen, 2000), but these strikes occur primarily in the southern portion of the country. The Jiangsu Province where Shanghai lies received only seven landfalls in the 50-year period 1947 - 1999, so the region does not have a lot of typhoon experience. Since 1979, no typhoon with winds in excess of about 85 mph (75 mph winds using a 10-minute averaging time) has made landfall within about 200 miles of Shanghai (Figure 2.) Historically, the strongest typhoon to affect the city in the past century may be Typhoon Gloria of July 24 - 25, 1949, whose storm surge overwhelmed the city's flood walls and left much of Shanghai a flooded ruin, with over 250,000 people homeless (See David Longshore's Encyclopedia of Hurricanes, Typhoons, and Cyclones). Note that Typhoon Wanda of 1956 was at Category 3 strength when it hit the coast of China near where Chan-hom is predicted to strike. Wanda killed 2000 people in China. China has had four typhoons that have killed at least 37,000 people each--most recently in 1975, when torrential rains from what had been Super Typhoon Nina caused the Banqiao Dam to fail, killing 90,000 - 230,000 people.


Figure 2. Tracks of all typhoons with at least 75 mph winds (10-minute average winds as rated by the Japan Meteorological Agency) to pass within a 230-mile diameter circle (light shaded region) near Shanghai, China. Typhoon Winnie is labeled in white. Ten-minute average winds of 75 mph are roughly equivalent to 85 mph winds for the one-minute averaging time winds used for the U.S. Saffir-Simpson scale. All of the storms in this plot had sustained 10-minute average winds of 75 mph or less when they made landfall. Image credit: NOAA.

A historical analogue: Typhoon Winnie of 1997
The largest storm surge observed at the coast in Shanghai since 1921 was 5.9 feet (1.81 meters) during Typhoon Emma of 1956. However, Emma's maximum surge did not occur at high tide (the difference between low tide and high tide in Shanghai is about 7.2 feet or 2.2 meters, so it makes a big difference when the maximum storm surge arrives, relative to high tide.) The highest storm tide (water level) in Shanghai came during Typhoon Winnie of August 1997. Although Winnie was only a Category 1 storm with 85 mph winds when it made landfall, and the storm struck relatively far from Shanghai, about 180 miles to the south, the storm surge from Winnie was only 5.5" (14 cm) below the top of the 19.2-foot (5.86 meter) Suzhou Creek floodgate that protects downtown Shanghai on the Huangpu River, which flows through the center of town. This floodwall was rated to protect against a 1-in-200 year flood, and was overtopped by about one foot (30 cm) along a 8.5 mile (13.7 km) section inland from the downtown area, flooding over 400 homes (source: Flood probability analysis of the Huangpu barrier in Shanghai, M.S. thesis by Qian Ke.) According to EM-DAT, Winnie killed 240 people and did $2.7 billion (1997 dollars) in damage to China. The floodwall protecting downtown Shanghai has been raised by 3.4 feet (1.05 meters) since then, giving the city protection against a 1-in-1000 year flood. Thus, it will take a much stronger storm than Winnie to flood the city. Chan-hom is predicted to be a much stronger storm at landfall than Winnie was, and is forecast to hit closer to Shanghai. The newly raised floodwalls of Shanghai may see their highest water levels in history when Chan-hom makes landfall, depending upon whether or not the peak storm surge occurs near high tide.

Low tide in Shanghai is at 07:07 UTC Saturday, about the time that Chan-hom is forecast to make landfall. That is potentially good news for the coastal region near the landfall point. However, high tide is at 12:48 UTC Saturday, at a time when the center of Chan-hom is predicted to be over land but just south of the city, so the counter-clockwise circulation around the center will be pushing water into the city. Fortunately, this high tide is not a very high one--high tides late next week will be more than two feet higher than this. Though Chan-hom will be weakening as it approaches Shanghai during Saturday's high tide, JTWC is predicting the storm will still be at Category 1 strength. If Chan-hom follows the JTWC track and intensity forecast, it will be capable of pushing a record-size storm surge into the city during this 12:48 UTC Saturday high tide, potentially challenging the 1-in-200 year water levels observed during Typhoon Winnie of 1997. I've read several studies explaining how storm surge propagation in the Yellow Sea is extremely complicated, so I am unsure just how the great the risk is from this storm without seeing data from a sophisticated real-time storm surge model, though.


Figure 3. Typhoon Winnie as it passed just south of Okinawa on August 17, 1997, at 11:36 UTC. Note that the small inner eyewall of the typhoon had become completely surrounded by a concentric 230-mile diameter eyewall. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Why was Typhoon Winnie's storm surge so high?
If Typhoon Winnie was only a Category 1 storm, and its center crossed the coast relatively far away from Shanghai (180 miles), why did it bring such a large storm surge to the city? Well, Winnie was a freak. According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) 1997 Annual Tropical Cyclone Report, as Winnie moved toward Okinawa on August 16, 1997, a large outer rain band began to encircle the inner eyewall. By the time the typhoon passed over Okinawa, the rain band had become a complete, 230 mile (370 km) diameter concentric outer eyewall, possibly the largest ever observed (tied with 1960's Typhoon Carmen, which also had a 230-mile diameter outer eyewall.) Whenever an intense tropical cyclone forms concentric eyewalls, the peak winds of the inner eyewall fall significantly, but the hurricane-force winds of the storm spread out over a wider area that encompasses the outer eyewall, increasing the size of the storm surge. Winnie's strong winds were able to pile up a massive mound of water into the relatively shallow waters of the Yellow Sea off the coast of Shanghai. Since the Yellow Sea is enclosed on three sides, with the Korean Peninsula blocking the flow of water to the northeast, this extra water had nowhere to go except up onto land when the center of Winnie pushed inland.


Figure 4. The 22.6-foot (6.9 meter) Suzhou Creek floodgate that protects downtown Shanghai from storm surges coming up the Huangpu River, which flows through the center of town. This floodwall is rated to protect against a 1-in-1000 year flood. Image credit: Dorothy Tang.

Sea level rise and Shanghai
Sea levels have been rising globally by about 3.3 mm per year over the past few decades. According to a 2015 study, Sea level change and city safety—The Shanghai as an example, sea levels have been rising a bit slower in Shanghai--about 2 mm/year, but the land has been sinking at more than double that rate, due to compaction of soil and groundwater pumping to support intensive urban development. As a result, the relative rise of sea level in the city has been about 7 mm/year, which is a huge concern for a city whose average ground level is already below the average high tide level. The authors predicted that over the next twenty years, Shanghai will see the relative sea level rise by 10 - 16 cm (3.9 - 6.3 inches), which will make storm surges from typhoons like Chan-hom more dangerous. With sea level rise likely to accelerate due to increased melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, Shanghai will be increasingly hard-pressed to keep the ocean at bay this century using ever-higher flood walls. A new approach, called the Yangtze River Delta Project (YDRP), offers a more innovative way to manage Shanghai's increasing flood risk due to the steadily rising seas. The YRDP research group develops "soft" infrastructural strategies (as opposed to "hard" floodwalls) to respond to sea level rise and storm surge. For example, the team is studying the flood control techniques devised by Yu the Great (2200-2100 BCE, founder of China's Xia Dynasty), who created a system of irrigation canals that channeled river floodwaters into agricultural fields, building low earthen dikes to guide the water’s flow. Other studies undertaken by the research group include projects for the transformation of New York and New Jersey’s Upper Harbor and a land-building sediment diversion proposal for the Mississippi River Delta.

The new Japanese Himawari satellite has some spectacular imagery of Chan-hom (Sector 4 in Band 3=visible, and Sector 6 in Band 13=IR.)

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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Quoting 64. Ryan1000:

Wasn't Wanda of 1956 also a bad storm for the Shanghai area?

Either way, Chan-Hom is looking up to be a rather damaging storm for Shanghai. Hopefully their floodwall can keep them safe from the storm surge of this typhoon.
I'm not sure why WU has that listed as a hurricane but it should be Super Typhoon Wanda. It came ashore in Zhejiang province, the province south of Shanghai. Although it killed about 6,000 people in Zhejiang, it came ashore right at the most mountainous part of the coast. The typhoon rapidly weakened and was a tropical depression in less than a day after landfall. It seems the storm surge also rapidly weakened when it spread north, and there was only some minor flooding in Shanghai. The path of Chan-hom is somewhat similar to Wanda, and landfall may occur in nearly the same place. The big difference now is 56 million people live in the province compared to less than six million in 1956. No matter where the typhoon goes, there's going to be death and destruction on a much larger scale this time.
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Quoting 70. Misanthroptimist:


As I said, it's a bureaucratic process. There is no known reason to reject those two readings at this time.
Well, I tried.
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Quoting 61. nonblanche:



Having been in a dry slot for oh, most of the last two years, I figured everyone else has just gotten everything and is swimming in a sea of mud. :) Also because, beer.

I haven't seen a good hailstorm since, what was it? '81 or '82, Orange County CA. I mean we got some occasionally in PA, but that one left drifts of hail on the lawns. This was just awesome especially because the kiddos got to see it.

Yeah, I'll shut up now. :)
LOL. Beer. You even been to Empire, up by the Black Rock Desert? I got stuck there for a couple of hours in the early 80's. The gypsum plant was still operating then, and it was company town with about 400 people. The only gas station has a big sign that says "Welcome to Nowhere" so that gives you a pretty good idea of the amenities. There was a two hour dust storm that no one could drive through so there was a bunch of us stuck in the convenience store/bar/slot machine casino. There was lots of beer drunk that evening. The dust storm just suddenly died and five minutes later that worst hail storm I've ever seen commenced. It went on for 45 minutes with hail stones the size of silver dollars and covered the ground at least 1 foot deep. When the storm stopped, the setting sun broke through. It was the most amazing view of the Nevada desert I've ever seen. I have some slides stored away I'll have dig up. People who think the desert is bland and boring have never been in the right place at the right time.
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O Snap, LoL....

Weather Channel wants to attract Weather Underground fans with new show

The Weather Channel is looking to get its geek on.

The cable channel will soon announce the mid-August launch of a daily two-hour live show that taps into the resources and quirky spirit of Weather Underground, the website for meteorological enthusiasts obsessive enough to own personal forecast stations.

The Weather Co., the Weather Channel's parent, acquired Weather Underground in 2012, much to the chagrin of the site's fans who love its grass-roots approach to forecasting. They feared a corporate takeover of the San Francisco-based entity which grew through a network of devoted followers supplying data from across the country would make Weather Underground more commercial and less sophisticated. The site was founded by several University of Michigan students in 1993, taking their name from the left-wing radical organization formed in the late 1960s.

But the weather geeks who populate Weather Underground are the viewers the Weather Channel wants to attract with its new show.

The Weather Channel's president, David Clark, told The Times that the Weather Underground program would depart from standard coverage, providing meteorological news and discussion that "will be done in a fun, fast-moving, youthful kind of way." Unlike the channel's slick studio look seen through most of the day, the Weather Underground proceedings will take place in a casual clubhouse atmosphere with a few bar stools, easy chairs and memorabilia.

The program, airing from 3 to 5 p.m. Pacific time, will be hosted by Weather Channel meteorologist and storm chaser Mike Bettes and use the Weather Underground's roster of experts and bloggers. Some of the site's contributors who supply their local data will also be invited to participate.

"They have a network of geeks that may not have a degree in weather, but they love it, and that's good enough for us," said Nora Zimmett, a former CNN producer now in charge of live programming for the Weather Channel.

The channel was one of the most valuable assets in cable before the iPhone was invented.

- Nora Zimmett, a former CNN producer

The Weather Underground show is the channel's latest bid to prove its value in an age when temperatures and forecasts are available in an instant on the Internet and mobile devices. The Weather Co. also owns Weather.com, the most visited Internet site for forecast information.

"The channel was one of the most valuable assets in cable before the iPhone was invented," Zimmett noted.

The privately held company, a consortium of NBCUniversal and private equity groups Blackstone Group and Bain Capital, saw the relevance of its 33-year-old cable channel come into serious question last year during a standoff with DirecTV. The nation's largest subscription video service provider refused to meet demands by the Weather Co. for an increase in fees to carry the Weather Channel, on the grounds that its content was widely available elsewhere. The Weather Channel was off DirecTV for three months before two sides agreed to terms.

The Weather Channel has always touted its role in public safety, providing continuous national coverage of storms and extreme weather. Viewership, which typically averages around 200,000 during the day, rose 11% in the first quarter of 2015 from a year earlier, thanks to brutal winter conditions in much of the U.S. There are even advertisers such as State Farm, Duracell and Home Depot that are ready with spots to air in the channel's disaster coverage.

But getting viewers to feel passionate about the Weather Channel during fair weather is a challenge. It tried in recent years by adding some climate-related reality series that looked as if they could have aired on outlets such as A&E or Discovery, but cut back on that programming as part of its new deal with DirecTV.

"Brands that attempt to be Swiss Army knives that have something for everybody %u2014 are failing," he said. "We're in an on-demand world. People can choose the best of everything. It's better to do really well with a passionate audience than it is to be all things to all people, especially in cable."

Clark said the channel has started moving in that direction, adding a half-hour science-oriented show called "WX Geeks." More scientific explanations are being weaved into regular coverage during the day.


Derek Baine, a senior analyst for media research firm SNL Kagan, said the channel is taking a smart course. "News and information has become such a commodity that any channels in this area need to change focus and develop more original programming," he said.

The Weather Underground show will be a true test of whether the channel can become more specialized. The deal to buy Weather Underground got a harsh reception from fans on Twitter. Before putting the brand's name on a TV show, the Weather Co. had to show it was true to its word that it would keep Weather Underground management in place and not alter the tone of the site.

"If we had launched this show back then it would have been rejected by the Weather Underground community," Clark said. "We're going to have to earn the respect of that community. If we do, it's a big success for us."



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 69. AdamReith:

Sorry, I'm new here. You're being sarcastic, right?

Yes. :-)

It's kind of sad that my sarcasm could pass for an actual viewpoint, but I've heard variations of that very argument made many times. It seems you have, too.
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Quoting 70. Misanthroptimist:


As I said, it's a bureaucratic process. There is no known reason to reject those two readings at this time.

There isn't any viable reason to accept them either...
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Quoting 66. Misanthroptimist:


You're dead to me, pat. Dead to me.

No, thanks. Just had a Klondike bar. I'll make up for it by walking extra fast tomorrow.


Been dead here like 43 times and once in 79' in a 77 Ranchero, so you're in rare but comfortable company.

I'm gonna be off here with the Pluto encounter early next week.

Gro has family there I think. Or is it Ceres?

So there is dat.

: )

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Quoting 67. sar2401:

It would really help if you read about the WMO record assesment process. It's much more involved than just noting a station had a certain reading for a day or number of days, even if it came from a scientific station. This is an excerpt from that link:

The truth be told, world record extremes are mistakenly created all the time. For example a "fat finger" errors such as hand digitizing a 28.0°C as 82.0 would create a world record observation that every quality control system would say was invalid. Additionally, instrumentation problems can generate a report far in excess of the meteorological conditions. But sometimes a combination of fairly extreme meteorological conditions with minor instrumentation problems, such as calibration errors, can necessitate considerable detective work to determine whether a new world record observation was indeed valid or not. Since weather records are often used as indicators that the Earth's climate is changing and/or becoming more extreme, confirmation of new weather extreme records should be recognized as a high priority in the meteorology community.

As I said, it's a bureaucratic process. There is no known reason to reject those two readings at this time.
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Quoting 22. Misanthroptimist:


But what about the economy?! If we do anything to address AGW/CC the entire world economy will come crashing to a halt.
Sorry, I'm new here. You're being sarcastic, right?
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Quoting 57. Misanthroptimist:


You're devotion to the bureaucracy is touching. Let me try another example and see if it gets in there. Sometime next week GISS will release its GISTEMP figure for June. There's some chance it will be a record. If it is said to be a record, that will be accepted as true (even by you). That's true even though IPCC certainly won't endorse it in anything short of years, if they ever do. The reason is that we have confidence that GISS is staffed by scientists competent to make that claim and there is no evidence to refute the claim.

There is no evidence to indicate that the March readings in Antarctica were in error, nor is there any reason to suspect that the staff at the scientific research station where the temperature was measured weren't up to the task. Therefore, as far as can be known by you and me, there is no reason to reject the new record temperature. There is no reason to believe that the only thing holding up the posting of it as a new record is anything other than processing.

And with that I'm done with your snotty posts for the evening.


Oh boy another incessant rant filled with strawmen....
Let's get this straight, there's no evidence to refute nor accept this record, however, it's somehow still a record no matter what reexamination may reveal or what anyone else says, the WMO data is "old", anyone who's using it is "appealing to authority (bureaucracy)", and "their (WMO) decisions have absolutely no effect on reality whatsoever." Lol...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 39. Misanthroptimist:


The reading wasn't taken by some guy on how PWS. It was taken at a scientific research station, presumably by scientists. It's a rather mundane piece of data and so requires no special scrutiny. The fact that the WMO hasn't gotten around to updating their record books makes no difference to the fact that a new record was measured. If you have some evidence that th[os]e readings are[were] wrong, I'll be happy to reconsider my position. Until then, I'll consider this a bureaucratic problem rather than any real doubt about the science, just as I would any other piece of science.

It would really help if you read about the WMO record assesment process. It's much more involved than just noting a station had a certain reading for a day or number of days, even if it came from a scientific station. This is an excerpt from that link:

The truth be told, world record extremes are mistakenly created all the time. For example a "fat finger" errors such as hand digitizing a 28.0°C as 82.0 would create a world record observation that every quality control system would say was invalid. Additionally, instrumentation problems can generate a report far in excess of the meteorological conditions. But sometimes a combination of fairly extreme meteorological conditions with minor instrumentation problems, such as calibration errors, can necessitate considerable detective work to determine whether a new world record observation was indeed valid or not. Since weather records are often used as indicators that the Earth's climate is changing and/or becoming more extreme, confirmation of new weather extreme records should be recognized as a high priority in the meteorology community.
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Quoting 51. Patrap:

Godzilla vs Rodan ENSO Super Palooza Mucho Grande El Nino 2015



If it ain't a Rodan El Niño, it ain't an El Niño.
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Wasn't Wanda of 1956 also a bad storm for the Shanghai area?

Either way, Chan-Hom is looking up to be a rather damaging storm for Shanghai. Hopefully their floodwall can keep them safe from the storm surge of this typhoon.
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Quoting 60. StormTrackerScott:

While everyone is talking heat down in Antarctica temps are expected to fall to -110 over the next day.


ThEy call dat Winter down dere.

Plus warm is only relative to the observer

Vostok, Antarctica
Vostok | Change Station
Report Station


Elev 11447 ft 78.46 S, 106.87 E | Updated 2 hr ago

Blowing Snow

-85 F
Feels Like -85 F

Wind from South
Gusts mph
Today is forecast to be WARMER than yesterday.
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Quoting 55. sar2401:

Probably true up by Rye Patch. There hasn't been anywhere near as much rain in the I-80 corridor toward Lovelock. That area's not as heavily vegetated as in the Fallon area and there's a lot more exposed sandy soil. I've been caught in a couple up near Rye Patch and it turns day into night pretty fast.


Having been in a dry slot for oh, most of the last two years, I figured everyone else has just gotten everything and is swimming in a sea of mud. :) Also because, beer.

I haven't seen a good hailstorm since, what was it? '81 or '82, Orange County CA. I mean we got some occasionally in PA, but that one left drifts of hail on the lawns. This was just awesome especially because the kiddos got to see it.

Yeah, I'll shut up now. :)
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While everyone is talking heat down in Antarctica temps are expected to fall to -110 over the next day.
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Quoting 51. Patrap:

Godzilla vs Rodan ENSO Super Palooza Mucho Grande El Nino 2015




I bet you're loads of fun around a fire ant nest
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Quoting 6. Webberweather53:



It's beyond me why anyone would make a statement like this. The WMO gathers many of the best scientists from around the world to ensure for specific investigations to ensure that a prescribed record measurement was in fact "reality" & precisely to what extent, with some of their investigations becoming published in literature... As much as I get on Scott for making extravagant El Nino claims, this one blows all of his out of the water.


Claims that are coming true. I like to follow the Carl Shreck maps and is a really good indication on where we are headed. This WWB is on par with the one that set off the 1997 Super Nino. Also rapid cooling happen in the Banda Sea.



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Quoting 45. Webberweather53:



Apart from contorted ideological rants, what evidence have you presented that this record can be indeed confirmed by the WMO? Has it passed quality checks? What's the history of this station? Are there any local topographic features or incident weather features that would bias the observation? Trying to determine a new continental record "requires no special scrutiny" Lmao, pure gold.

You're devotion to the bureaucracy is touching. Let me try another example and see if it gets in there. Sometime next week GISS will release its GISTEMP figure for June. There's some chance it will be a record. If it is said to be a record, that will be accepted as true (even by you). That's true even though IPCC certainly won't endorse it in anything short of years, if they ever do. The reason is that we have confidence that GISS is staffed by scientists competent to make that claim and there is no evidence to refute the claim.

There is no evidence to indicate that the March readings in Antarctica were in error, nor is there any reason to suspect that the staff at the scientific research station where the temperature was measured weren't up to the task. Therefore, as far as can be known by you and me, there is no reason to reject the new record temperature. There is no reason to believe that the only thing holding up the posting of it as a new record is anything other than processing.

And with that I'm done with your snotty posts for the evening.
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Quoting 3. nonblanche:

Dust Storm Warning
Statement as of 5:34 PM PDT on July 09, 2015

...Dust Storm Warning in effect until 7 PM PDT this evening...

The National Weather Service in Reno has issued a dust Storm
Warning...which is in effect until 7 PM PDT this evening.

* Timing: through 7 PM this evening.

* Winds: wind gusts to 45 mph from thunderstorm outflows.

* Visibility: less than 1/4 mile and down to less than 50 yards at
times from Toulon to Rye Patch Reservoir including Lovelock.

* Impacts: reduced visibility in blowing dust will create
hazardous driving conditions on Interstate 80. Visibility will
deteriorate in a very short distance. This is a life threatening
situation if you are traveling along Interstate 80.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A dangerous dust storm is occurring. Widespread blowing dust is
expected in the warned area with visibilities less than 100 feet.
Travelers encountering this dust storm should slow down or
safely pull off to the side of the Road...and turn on their
headlights.


Dust storm warning? Seriously? Go home EAS, you're drunk.
Probably true up by Rye Patch. There hasn't been anywhere near as much rain in the I-80 corridor toward Lovelock. That area's not as heavily vegetated as in the Fallon area and there's a lot more exposed sandy soil. I've been caught in a couple up near Rye Patch and it turns day into night pretty fast.
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Quoting 51. Patrap:

Godzilla vs Rodan ENSO Super Palooza Mucho Grande El Nino 2012





Apparently we are naming El-Nino's now.
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How identify an El Niño?

July 10th 2015.



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Quoting 45. Webberweather53:



Apart from contorted ideological rants, what evidence have you presented that this record can be indeed confirmed by the WMO? Has it passed quality checks? What's the history of this station? Are there any local topographic features or incident weather features that would bias the observation? Trying to determine a new continental record "requires no special scrutiny" Lmao, pure gold.


Good evening Webber. What is your take on this ENSO any changes upward with nearly all models over 2C on the July run. Any changes on the 850 winds with the WWB being incorporated the last 2 weeks?
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Godzilla vs Rodan ENSO Super Palooza Mucho Grande El Nino 2015

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
hey guys

hey Scott I'm passing on NOAA's message on to you

STOP OBSESSING ABOUT THE EL NINO!!!!

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Quoting 4. tampabaymatt:



Yikes. Just got clobbered by this line of storms. Didn't see that coming. Tons of thunder and lightning.


It was bad here too.
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Quoting 43. centex:

Maybe they could put CAT # inside the storms.


Good idea, i already think about this, but it's cool to be in expectation and have a surprise when you click in the storm and see them intensities...
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Quoting 43. centex:

Maybe they could put CAT # inside the storms.
maybe someday its will happern
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
Quoting 39. Misanthroptimist:


The reading wasn't taken by some guy on how PWS. It was taken at a scientific research station, presumably by scientists. It's a rather mundane piece of data and so requires no special scrutiny. The fact that the WMO hasn't gotten around to updating their record books makes no difference to the fact that a new record was measured. If you have some evidence that th[os]e readings are[were] wrong, I'll be happy to reconsider my position. Until then, I'll consider this a bureaucratic problem rather than any real doubt about the science, just as I would any other piece of science.



Apart from contorted ideological rants, what evidence have you presented that this record can be indeed confirmed by the WMO? Has it passed quality checks? What's the history of this station? Are there any local topographic features or incident weather features that would bias the observation? Trying to determine a new continental record "requires no special scrutiny" Lmao, pure gold.
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Typhoon Chan-hom WINDS 130 MPH!! AT 10PM ON july 9 2015
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Quoting 31. hurricanes2018:



wow!!
Maybe they could put CAT # inside the storms.
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Yesterday was Jurassic El-Nino and now today NOAA says its Bruce Lee after we were told to stop obsessing.

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 5h5 hours ago
Ryan Maue retweeted NOAA Climate.gov
Yesterday NOAA told us to stop obsessing about El Nino updates. Today, they want to name it Bruce Lee. Weird!


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Quoting 14. BaltimoreBrian:

!!! When the End of Human Civilization Is Your Day Job: Among many climate scientists, gloom has set in. Things are worse than we think, but they can't really talk about it. Discuss

Elections still matter in the US, so look at the people around you as you go through your day. How many of them have their heads around AGW? How many are even capable of getting their heads around AGW? How soon are we going to run out of "leaders" who say AGW is lie? Dr. Box is spot on
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The satellite should be renamed the NOAA DOOMSAT.
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Quoting 30. Webberweather53:



So, if the record hasn't been confirmed or denied, then how can you justify that the WMO data is "old"? You're purposely latching onto one-two pieces of information & are assuming those as fact, while ignoring the rest & uncertainties. If that's not confirmation bias,... but hey ignorance knows no bounds.

The reading wasn't taken by some guy on how PWS. It was taken at a scientific research station, presumably by scientists. It's a rather mundane piece of data and so requires no special scrutiny. The fact that the WMO hasn't gotten around to updating their record books makes no difference to the fact that a new record was measured. If you have some evidence that th[os]e readings are[were] wrong, I'll be happy to reconsider my position. Until then, I'll consider this a bureaucratic problem rather than any real doubt about the science, just as I would any other piece of science.
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Quoting 32. Bucsboltsfan:



The Pacific is lit up like a Christmas tree while the Atlantic is like a dark room.
Fairly typical for this time of year ...
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Typhoon Chan-hom WunderMap®
Last Updated 7/9/2015, 2:00:00 PM (Eastern Daylight Time)
Location 25.1N 233.4E Movement NW at 14 mph
Wind 135 MPH
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Well, Winnie was a freak.



According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) 1997 Annual Tropical Cyclone Report, as Winnie moved toward Okinawa on August 16, 1997, a large outer rain band began to encircle the inner eyewall. By the time the typhoon passed over Okinawa, the rain band had become a complete, 230 mile (370 km) diameter concentric outer eyewall, possibly the largest ever observed (tied with 1960's Typhoon Carmen, which also had a 230-mile diameter outer eyewall.) Whenever an intense tropical cyclone forms concentric eyewalls, the peak winds of the inner eyewall fall significantly, but the hurricane-force winds of the storm spread out over a wider area that encompasses the outer eyewall, increasing the size of the storm surge. Winnie's strong winds were able to pile up a massive mound of water into the relatively shallow waters of the Yellow Sea off the coast of Shanghai. Since the Yellow Sea is enclosed on three sides, with the Korean Peninsula blocking the flow of water to the northeast, this extra water had nowhere to go except up onto land when the center of Winnie pushed inland.
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wow!!
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Quoting 26. Misanthroptimist:


Your confusion is amusing. Perhaps I can simplify it for you.

1. Record temperature reading taken by science research station. (Actually, two records on consecutive days.)
2. WMO has neither confirmed nor denied the record.
3. There is no known reason to reject the temperature reading, nor has WMO contested it.
4. The temperature can be considered valid in the absence of disconfirming evidence.
5. The new record hasn't yet worked its way through the WMO bureaucracy .
6. The WMO record is out of date. Their listed "record" is actually the second or third highest temperature measured on Antarctica.

Let me know when the WMO rejects the two measured temperatures that exceed their listed temperature, will you?

ETA: You've also misused confirmation bias.


So, if the record hasn't been confirmed or denied, then how can you justify that the WMO data is "old"? You're purposely latching onto one-two pieces of information & are assuming those as fact, while ignoring the rest & uncertainties. If that's not confirmation bias,... but hey ignorance knows no bounds.
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Quoting 8. Tazmanian:

we now have 97E

EP, 97, 2015071000, , BEST, 0, 100N, 1180W, 20, 1008, DB
MAYBE INVEST 98E soon
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Quoting 20. DCSwithunderscores:



Misanthroptimist's statement "Their decisions, of course, have no effect on reality whatsoever." is logically valid in the sense that their decisions do not cause or influence the temperatures. On the other hand the temperatures may have an effect on WMO's decisions.


Misanthroptimst is intentionally jumping the gun, I seriously doubt the WMO would purposely not choose this as a new record if the evidence was indeed there to overturn the previous record. A thorough quality control assessment must be completed to confirm the record, which includes giving consideration to error margins & carefully checking for potential sources of bias including calibration errors, incident weather conditions, among other things to ensure the measured reading was accurate.
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather