About Jeff Masters
Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather
By: Jeff Masters , 12:29 AM GMT on July 10, 2015
Category 3 Typhoon Chan-hom is headed northwest at 14 mph towards China, and appears poised to make landfall as one of the strongest typhoons on record for a portion of the country unused to strong typhoons. Of particular concern is Chan-hom's storm surge, which has the potential to bring the highest water levels ever observed into Shanghai, China's most populous city, with 23 million people in the metro area. In their 5:45 am EDT Friday advisory, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) put Chan-hom's central pressure at 935 mb; in their 5 am EDT Friday advisory, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) rated Chan-hom's top winds at 125 mph. A storm of this magnitude is sure to pile up a large storm surge, particularly since Chan-hom is a very large typhoon with tropical-storm force winds that extended outwards up to 310 miles from the center. This storm surge will pile up throughout the Yellow Sea, from China to the Korean Peninsula. Since the Yellow Sea is shallow and enclosed on three sides, the potential exists for some of the highest water levels ever recorded along portions of the coast south of Shanghai, to the right of where the center makes landfall. Chan-hom is likely to weaken significantly as the storm approaches landfall, due to cooler waters, higher wind shear, and interaction with land. JTWC and JMA were forecasting on Friday morning (U.S. EDT) that Chan-hom would make landfall between 06 - 09 UTC Saturday (2 am - 4 am EDT, or 3 - 5 pm JST.) In their 5:45 am EDT Friday forecast, JMA predicted that Chan-hom would have a 950 mb pressure and sustained 10-minute average winds of 90 mph at landfall. In their 5 am EDT Friday forecast, JTWC predicted that Chan-hom would be a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds (1-minute average) at landfall. Even at this lowered intensity, Chan-hom would still be the strongest landfalling storm to hit within 200 miles of Shanghai in at least 35 years. On Friday morning, the typhoon was undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, where the inner eyewall collapses and is replaced by a larger-diameter outer eyewall. While this process weakens the peak winds near the center, it spreads the typhoon-strength winds over a larger area, increasing the size of the storm surge.
Figure 1. Typhoon Chan-hom as seen by radar on Okinawa at 7:45 pm EDT Thursday (08:45 JST Friday, July 10), 2015. At the time, Chan-hom was a Category 4 storm with 130 mph winds. Image credit: JMA.
Strong typhoons hitting near Shanghai: a rare occurrence
China gets hit by about nine tropical cyclones (tropical depression, tropical storms, or typhoons) each year (Chen, 2000), but these strikes occur primarily in the southern portion of the country. The Jiangsu Province where Shanghai lies received only seven landfalls in the 50-year period 1947 - 1999, so the region does not have a lot of typhoon experience. Since 1979, no typhoon with winds in excess of about 85 mph (75 mph winds using a 10-minute averaging time) has made landfall within about 200 miles of Shanghai (Figure 2.) Historically, the strongest typhoon to affect the city in the past century may be Typhoon Gloria of July 24 - 25, 1949, whose storm surge overwhelmed the city's flood walls and left much of Shanghai a flooded ruin, with over 250,000 people homeless (See David Longshore's Encyclopedia of Hurricanes, Typhoons, and Cyclones). Note that Typhoon Wanda of 1956 was at Category 3 strength when it hit the coast of China near where Chan-hom is predicted to strike. Wanda killed 2000 people in China. China has had four typhoons that have killed at least 37,000 people each--most recently in 1975, when torrential rains from what had been Super Typhoon Nina caused the Banqiao Dam to fail, killing 90,000 - 230,000 people.
Figure 2. Tracks of all typhoons with at least 75 mph winds (10-minute average winds as rated by the Japan Meteorological Agency) to pass within a 230-mile diameter circle (light shaded region) near Shanghai, China. Typhoon Winnie is labeled in white. Ten-minute average winds of 75 mph are roughly equivalent to 85 mph winds for the one-minute averaging time winds used for the U.S. Saffir-Simpson scale. All of the storms in this plot had sustained 10-minute average winds of 75 mph or less when they made landfall. Image credit: NOAA.
A historical analogue: Typhoon Winnie of 1997
The largest storm surge observed at the coast in Shanghai since 1921 was 5.9 feet (1.81 meters) during Typhoon Emma of 1956. However, Emma's maximum surge did not occur at high tide (the difference between low tide and high tide in Shanghai is about 7.2 feet or 2.2 meters, so it makes a big difference when the maximum storm surge arrives, relative to high tide.) The highest storm tide (water level) in Shanghai came during Typhoon Winnie of August 1997. Although Winnie was only a Category 1 storm with 85 mph winds when it made landfall, and the storm struck relatively far from Shanghai, about 180 miles to the south, the storm surge from Winnie was only 5.5" (14 cm) below the top of the 19.2-foot (5.86 meter) Suzhou Creek floodgate that protects downtown Shanghai on the Huangpu River, which flows through the center of town. This floodwall was rated to protect against a 1-in-200 year flood, and was overtopped by about one foot (30 cm) along a 8.5 mile (13.7 km) section inland from the downtown area, flooding over 400 homes (source: Flood probability analysis of the Huangpu barrier in Shanghai, M.S. thesis by Qian Ke.) According to EM-DAT, Winnie killed 240 people and did $2.7 billion (1997 dollars) in damage to China. The floodwall protecting downtown Shanghai has been raised by 3.4 feet (1.05 meters) since then, giving the city protection against a 1-in-1000 year flood. Thus, it will take a much stronger storm than Winnie to flood the city. Chan-hom is predicted to be a much stronger storm at landfall than Winnie was, and is forecast to hit closer to Shanghai. The newly raised floodwalls of Shanghai may see their highest water levels in history when Chan-hom makes landfall, depending upon whether or not the peak storm surge occurs near high tide.
Low tide in Shanghai is at 07:07 UTC Saturday, about the time that Chan-hom is forecast to make landfall. That is potentially good news for the coastal region near the landfall point. However, high tide is at 12:48 UTC Saturday, at a time when the center of Chan-hom is predicted to be over land but just south of the city, so the counter-clockwise circulation around the center will be pushing water into the city. Fortunately, this high tide is not a very high one--high tides late next week will be more than two feet higher than this. Though Chan-hom will be weakening as it approaches Shanghai during Saturday's high tide, JTWC is predicting the storm will still be at Category 1 strength. If Chan-hom follows the JTWC track and intensity forecast, it will be capable of pushing a record-size storm surge into the city during this 12:48 UTC Saturday high tide, potentially challenging the 1-in-200 year water levels observed during Typhoon Winnie of 1997. I've read several studies explaining how storm surge propagation in the Yellow Sea is extremely complicated, so I am unsure just how the great the risk is from this storm without seeing data from a sophisticated real-time storm surge model, though.
Figure 3. Typhoon Winnie as it passed just south of Okinawa on August 17, 1997, at 11:36 UTC. Note that the small inner eyewall of the typhoon had become completely surrounded by a concentric 230-mile diameter eyewall. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.
Why was Typhoon Winnie's storm surge so high?
If Typhoon Winnie was only a Category 1 storm, and its center crossed the coast relatively far away from Shanghai (180 miles), why did it bring such a large storm surge to the city? Well, Winnie was a freak. According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) 1997 Annual Tropical Cyclone Report, as Winnie moved toward Okinawa on August 16, 1997, a large outer rain band began to encircle the inner eyewall. By the time the typhoon passed over Okinawa, the rain band had become a complete, 230 mile (370 km) diameter concentric outer eyewall, possibly the largest ever observed (tied with 1960's Typhoon Carmen, which also had a 230-mile diameter outer eyewall.) Whenever an intense tropical cyclone forms concentric eyewalls, the peak winds of the inner eyewall fall significantly, but the hurricane-force winds of the storm spread out over a wider area that encompasses the outer eyewall, increasing the size of the storm surge. Winnie's strong winds were able to pile up a massive mound of water into the relatively shallow waters of the Yellow Sea off the coast of Shanghai. Since the Yellow Sea is enclosed on three sides, with the Korean Peninsula blocking the flow of water to the northeast, this extra water had nowhere to go except up onto land when the center of Winnie pushed inland.
Figure 4. The 22.6-foot (6.9 meter) Suzhou Creek floodgate that protects downtown Shanghai from storm surges coming up the Huangpu River, which flows through the center of town. This floodwall is rated to protect against a 1-in-1000 year flood. Image credit: Dorothy Tang.
Sea level rise and Shanghai
Sea levels have been rising globally by about 3.3 mm per year over the past few decades. According to a 2015 study, Sea level change and city safety—The Shanghai as an example, sea levels have been rising a bit slower in Shanghai--about 2 mm/year, but the land has been sinking at more than double that rate, due to compaction of soil and groundwater pumping to support intensive urban development. As a result, the relative rise of sea level in the city has been about 7 mm/year, which is a huge concern for a city whose average ground level is already below the average high tide level. The authors predicted that over the next twenty years, Shanghai will see the relative sea level rise by 10 - 16 cm (3.9 - 6.3 inches), which will make storm surges from typhoons like Chan-hom more dangerous. With sea level rise likely to accelerate due to increased melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, Shanghai will be increasingly hard-pressed to keep the ocean at bay this century using ever-higher flood walls. A new approach, called the Yangtze River Delta Project (YDRP), offers a more innovative way to manage Shanghai's increasing flood risk due to the steadily rising seas. The YRDP research group develops "soft" infrastructural strategies (as opposed to "hard" floodwalls) to respond to sea level rise and storm surge. For example, the team is studying the flood control techniques devised by Yu the Great (2200-2100 BCE, founder of China's Xia Dynasty), who created a system of irrigation canals that channeled river floodwaters into agricultural fields, building low earthen dikes to guide the water’s flow. Other studies undertaken by the research group include projects for the transformation of New York and New Jersey’s Upper Harbor and a land-building sediment diversion proposal for the Mississippi River Delta.
The new Japanese Himawari satellite has some spectacular imagery of Chan-hom (Sector 4 in Band 3=visible, and Sector 6 in Band 13=IR.)
Jeff Masters
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.
Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather
77. sar2401
76. sar2401
75. sar2401
74. Patrap
O Snap, LoL....
Weather Channel wants to attract Weather Underground fans with new show
The Weather Channel is looking to get its geek on.
The cable channel will soon announce the mid-August launch of a daily two-hour live show that taps into the resources and quirky spirit of Weather Underground, the website for meteorological enthusiasts obsessive enough to own personal forecast stations.
The Weather Co., the Weather Channel's parent, acquired Weather Underground in 2012, much to the chagrin of the site's fans who love its grass-roots approach to forecasting. They feared a corporate takeover of the San Francisco-based entity which grew through a network of devoted followers supplying data from across the country would make Weather Underground more commercial and less sophisticated. The site was founded by several University of Michigan students in 1993, taking their name from the left-wing radical organization formed in the late 1960s.
But the weather geeks who populate Weather Underground are the viewers the Weather Channel wants to attract with its new show.
The Weather Channel's president, David Clark, told The Times that the Weather Underground program would depart from standard coverage, providing meteorological news and discussion that "will be done in a fun, fast-moving, youthful kind of way." Unlike the channel's slick studio look seen through most of the day, the Weather Underground proceedings will take place in a casual clubhouse atmosphere with a few bar stools, easy chairs and memorabilia.
The program, airing from 3 to 5 p.m. Pacific time, will be hosted by Weather Channel meteorologist and storm chaser Mike Bettes and use the Weather Underground's roster of experts and bloggers. Some of the site's contributors who supply their local data will also be invited to participate.
"They have a network of geeks that may not have a degree in weather, but they love it, and that's good enough for us," said Nora Zimmett, a former CNN producer now in charge of live programming for the Weather Channel.
The channel was one of the most valuable assets in cable before the iPhone was invented.
- Nora Zimmett, a former CNN producer
The Weather Underground show is the channel's latest bid to prove its value in an age when temperatures and forecasts are available in an instant on the Internet and mobile devices. The Weather Co. also owns Weather.com, the most visited Internet site for forecast information.
"The channel was one of the most valuable assets in cable before the iPhone was invented," Zimmett noted.
The privately held company, a consortium of NBCUniversal and private equity groups Blackstone Group and Bain Capital, saw the relevance of its 33-year-old cable channel come into serious question last year during a standoff with DirecTV. The nation's largest subscription video service provider refused to meet demands by the Weather Co. for an increase in fees to carry the Weather Channel, on the grounds that its content was widely available elsewhere. The Weather Channel was off DirecTV for three months before two sides agreed to terms.
The Weather Channel has always touted its role in public safety, providing continuous national coverage of storms and extreme weather. Viewership, which typically averages around 200,000 during the day, rose 11% in the first quarter of 2015 from a year earlier, thanks to brutal winter conditions in much of the U.S. There are even advertisers such as State Farm, Duracell and Home Depot that are ready with spots to air in the channel's disaster coverage.
But getting viewers to feel passionate about the Weather Channel during fair weather is a challenge. It tried in recent years by adding some climate-related reality series that looked as if they could have aired on outlets such as A&E or Discovery, but cut back on that programming as part of its new deal with DirecTV.
"Brands that attempt to be Swiss Army knives that have something for everybody %u2014 are failing," he said. "We're in an on-demand world. People can choose the best of everything. It's better to do really well with a passionate audience than it is to be all things to all people, especially in cable."
Clark said the channel has started moving in that direction, adding a half-hour science-oriented show called "WX Geeks." More scientific explanations are being weaved into regular coverage during the day.
Derek Baine, a senior analyst for media research firm SNL Kagan, said the channel is taking a smart course. "News and information has become such a commodity that any channels in this area need to change focus and develop more original programming," he said.
The Weather Underground show will be a true test of whether the channel can become more specialized. The deal to buy Weather Underground got a harsh reception from fans on Twitter. Before putting the brand's name on a TV show, the Weather Co. had to show it was true to its word that it would keep Weather Underground management in place and not alter the tone of the site.
"If we had launched this show back then it would have been rejected by the Weather Underground community," Clark said. "We're going to have to earn the respect of that community. If we do, it's a big success for us."
73. Misanthroptimist
Yes. :-)
It's kind of sad that my sarcasm could pass for an actual viewpoint, but I've heard variations of that very argument made many times. It seems you have, too.
72. Webberweather53
There isn't any viable reason to accept them either...
71. Patrap
Been dead here like 43 times and once in 79' in a 77 Ranchero, so you're in rare but comfortable company.
I'm gonna be off here with the Pluto encounter early next week.
Gro has family there I think. Or is it Ceres?
So there is dat.
: )
70. Misanthroptimist
As I said, it's a bureaucratic process. There is no known reason to reject those two readings at this time.
69. AdamReith
68. Webberweather53
Oh boy another incessant rant filled with strawmen....
Let's get this straight, there's no evidence to refute nor accept this record, however, it's somehow still a record no matter what reexamination may reveal or what anyone else says, the WMO data is "old", anyone who's using it is "appealing to authority (bureaucracy)", and "their (WMO) decisions have absolutely no effect on reality whatsoever." Lol...
67. sar2401
The truth be told, world record extremes are mistakenly created all the time. For example a "fat finger" errors such as hand digitizing a 28.0°C as 82.0 would create a world record observation that every quality control system would say was invalid. Additionally, instrumentation problems can generate a report far in excess of the meteorological conditions. But sometimes a combination of fairly extreme meteorological conditions with minor instrumentation problems, such as calibration errors, can necessitate considerable detective work to determine whether a new world record observation was indeed valid or not. Since weather records are often used as indicators that the Earth's climate is changing and/or becoming more extreme, confirmation of new weather extreme records should be recognized as a high priority in the meteorology community.
65. Misanthroptimist
If it ain't a Rodan El Niño, it ain't an El Niño.
64. Ryan1000
Either way, Chan-Hom is looking up to be a rather damaging storm for Shanghai. Hopefully their floodwall can keep them safe from the storm surge of this typhoon.
63. Patrap
ThEy call dat Winter down dere.
Plus warm is only relative to the observer
Vostok, Antarctica
Vostok | Change Station
Report Station
Elev 11447 ft 78.46 S, 106.87 E | Updated 2 hr ago
Blowing Snow
-85 F
Feels Like -85 F
Wind from South
Gusts mph
Today is forecast to be WARMER than yesterday.
61. nonblanche
Having been in a dry slot for oh, most of the last two years, I figured everyone else has just gotten everything and is swimming in a sea of mud. :) Also because, beer.
I haven't seen a good hailstorm since, what was it? '81 or '82, Orange County CA. I mean we got some occasionally in PA, but that one left drifts of hail on the lawns. This was just awesome especially because the kiddos got to see it.
Yeah, I'll shut up now. :)
60. StormTrackerScott
59. ACSeattle
I bet you're loads of fun around a fire ant nest
58. StormTrackerScott
Claims that are coming true. I like to follow the Carl Shreck maps and is a really good indication on where we are headed. This WWB is on par with the one that set off the 1997 Super Nino. Also rapid cooling happen in the Banda Sea.
57. Misanthroptimist
You're devotion to the bureaucracy is touching. Let me try another example and see if it gets in there. Sometime next week GISS will release its GISTEMP figure for June. There's some chance it will be a record. If it is said to be a record, that will be accepted as true (even by you). That's true even though IPCC certainly won't endorse it in anything short of years, if they ever do. The reason is that we have confidence that GISS is staffed by scientists competent to make that claim and there is no evidence to refute the claim.
There is no evidence to indicate that the March readings in Antarctica were in error, nor is there any reason to suspect that the staff at the scientific research station where the temperature was measured weren't up to the task. Therefore, as far as can be known by you and me, there is no reason to reject the new record temperature. There is no reason to believe that the only thing holding up the posting of it as a new record is anything other than processing.
And with that I'm done with your snotty posts for the evening.
55. sar2401
54. StormTrackerScott
Apparently we are naming El-Nino's now.
53. pablosyn
July 10th 2015.
52. StormTrackerScott
Good evening Webber. What is your take on this ENSO any changes upward with nearly all models over 2C on the July run. Any changes on the 850 winds with the WWB being incorporated the last 2 weeks?
51. Patrap
50. wunderkidcayman
hey Scott I'm passing on NOAA's message on to you
STOP OBSESSING ABOUT THE EL NINO!!!!
48. StormTrackerScott
It was bad here too.
47. pablosyn
Good idea, i already think about this, but it's cool to be in expectation and have a surprise when you click in the storm and see them intensities...
46. hurricanes2018
45. Webberweather53
Apart from contorted ideological rants, what evidence have you presented that this record can be indeed confirmed by the WMO? Has it passed quality checks? What's the history of this station? Are there any local topographic features or incident weather features that would bias the observation? Trying to determine a new continental record "requires no special scrutiny" Lmao, pure gold.
44. hurricanes2018
Typhoon Chan-hom WINDS 130 MPH!! AT 10PM ON july 9 2015
43. centex
42. StormTrackerScott
Ryan Maue @RyanMaue 5h5 hours ago
Ryan Maue retweeted NOAA Climate.gov
Yesterday NOAA told us to stop obsessing about El Nino updates. Today, they want to name it Bruce Lee. Weird!
41. ACSeattle
Elections still matter in the US, so look at the people around you as you go through your day. How many of them have their heads around AGW? How many are even capable of getting their heads around AGW? How soon are we going to run out of "leaders" who say AGW is lie? Dr. Box is spot on
40. BaltimoreBrian
39. Misanthroptimist
The reading wasn't taken by some guy on how PWS. It was taken at a scientific research station, presumably by scientists. It's a rather mundane piece of data and so requires no special scrutiny. The fact that the WMO hasn't gotten around to updating their record books makes no difference to the fact that a new record was measured. If you have some evidence that th[os]e readings are[were] wrong, I'll be happy to reconsider my position. Until then, I'll consider this a bureaucratic problem rather than any real doubt about the science, just as I would any other piece of science.
38. BahaHurican
37. Patrap
It was mentioned that typhoons are large-scale weather systems. They can be easily recognized by their eyes, provided that they are intense enough. But what factors decide the size of eyes are still unclear. For example, Typhoon Jelawat in 2000 had an unusually huge round eye which appeared as a 100 km-hole in satellite images. It swept towards the SE China where the eye eventually collapsed.
36. hurricanes2018
35. pablosyn
34. hurricanes2018
Last Updated 7/9/2015, 2:00:00 PM (Eastern Daylight Time)
Location 25.1N 233.4E Movement NW at 14 mph
Wind 135 MPH
33. Patrap
According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) 1997 Annual Tropical Cyclone Report, as Winnie moved toward Okinawa on August 16, 1997, a large outer rain band began to encircle the inner eyewall. By the time the typhoon passed over Okinawa, the rain band had become a complete, 230 mile (370 km) diameter concentric outer eyewall, possibly the largest ever observed (tied with 1960's Typhoon Carmen, which also had a 230-mile diameter outer eyewall.) Whenever an intense tropical cyclone forms concentric eyewalls, the peak winds of the inner eyewall fall significantly, but the hurricane-force winds of the storm spread out over a wider area that encompasses the outer eyewall, increasing the size of the storm surge. Winnie's strong winds were able to pile up a massive mound of water into the relatively shallow waters of the Yellow Sea off the coast of Shanghai. Since the Yellow Sea is enclosed on three sides, with the Korean Peninsula blocking the flow of water to the northeast, this extra water had nowhere to go except up onto land when the center of Winnie pushed inland.
31. hurricanes2018
wow!!
30. Webberweather53
So, if the record hasn't been confirmed or denied, then how can you justify that the WMO data is "old"? You're purposely latching onto one-two pieces of information & are assuming those as fact, while ignoring the rest & uncertainties. If that's not confirmation bias,... but hey ignorance knows no bounds.
29. hurricanes2018
28. hurricanes2018
27. Webberweather53
Misanthroptimst is intentionally jumping the gun, I seriously doubt the WMO would purposely not choose this as a new record if the evidence was indeed there to overturn the previous record. A thorough quality control assessment must be completed to confirm the record, which includes giving consideration to error margins & carefully checking for potential sources of bias including calibration errors, incident weather conditions, among other things to ensure the measured reading was accurate.