Category 3 Chan-hom: One of Shanghai's Strongest Typhoons on Record?

By: Jeff Masters , 12:29 AM GMT on July 10, 2015

Category 3 Typhoon Chan-hom is headed northwest at 14 mph towards China, and appears poised to make landfall as one of the strongest typhoons on record for a portion of the country unused to strong typhoons. Of particular concern is Chan-hom's storm surge, which has the potential to bring the highest water levels ever observed into Shanghai, China's most populous city, with 23 million people in the metro area. In their 5:45 am EDT Friday advisory, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) put Chan-hom's central pressure at 935 mb; in their 5 am EDT Friday advisory, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) rated Chan-hom's top winds at 125 mph. A storm of this magnitude is sure to pile up a large storm surge, particularly since Chan-hom is a very large typhoon with tropical-storm force winds that extended outwards up to 310 miles from the center. This storm surge will pile up throughout the Yellow Sea, from China to the Korean Peninsula. Since the Yellow Sea is shallow and enclosed on three sides, the potential exists for some of the highest water levels ever recorded along portions of the coast south of Shanghai, to the right of where the center makes landfall. Chan-hom is likely to weaken significantly as the storm approaches landfall, due to cooler waters, higher wind shear, and interaction with land. JTWC and JMA were forecasting on Friday morning (U.S. EDT) that Chan-hom would make landfall between 06 - 09 UTC Saturday (2 am - 4 am EDT, or 3 - 5 pm JST.) In their 5:45 am EDT Friday forecast, JMA predicted that Chan-hom would have a 950 mb pressure and sustained 10-minute average winds of 90 mph at landfall. In their 5 am EDT Friday forecast, JTWC predicted that Chan-hom would be a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds (1-minute average) at landfall. Even at this lowered intensity, Chan-hom would still be the strongest landfalling storm to hit within 200 miles of Shanghai in at least 35 years. On Friday morning, the typhoon was undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, where the inner eyewall collapses and is replaced by a larger-diameter outer eyewall. While this process weakens the peak winds near the center, it spreads the typhoon-strength winds over a larger area, increasing the size of the storm surge.


Figure 1. Typhoon Chan-hom as seen by radar on Okinawa at 7:45 pm EDT Thursday (08:45 JST Friday, July 10), 2015. At the time, Chan-hom was a Category 4 storm with 130 mph winds. Image credit: JMA.

Strong typhoons hitting near Shanghai: a rare occurrence
China gets hit by about nine tropical cyclones (tropical depression, tropical storms, or typhoons) each year (Chen, 2000), but these strikes occur primarily in the southern portion of the country. The Jiangsu Province where Shanghai lies received only seven landfalls in the 50-year period 1947 - 1999, so the region does not have a lot of typhoon experience. Since 1979, no typhoon with winds in excess of about 85 mph (75 mph winds using a 10-minute averaging time) has made landfall within about 200 miles of Shanghai (Figure 2.) Historically, the strongest typhoon to affect the city in the past century may be Typhoon Gloria of July 24 - 25, 1949, whose storm surge overwhelmed the city's flood walls and left much of Shanghai a flooded ruin, with over 250,000 people homeless (See David Longshore's Encyclopedia of Hurricanes, Typhoons, and Cyclones). Note that Typhoon Wanda of 1956 was at Category 3 strength when it hit the coast of China near where Chan-hom is predicted to strike. Wanda killed 2000 people in China. China has had four typhoons that have killed at least 37,000 people each--most recently in 1975, when torrential rains from what had been Super Typhoon Nina caused the Banqiao Dam to fail, killing 90,000 - 230,000 people.


Figure 2. Tracks of all typhoons with at least 75 mph winds (10-minute average winds as rated by the Japan Meteorological Agency) to pass within a 230-mile diameter circle (light shaded region) near Shanghai, China. Typhoon Winnie is labeled in white. Ten-minute average winds of 75 mph are roughly equivalent to 85 mph winds for the one-minute averaging time winds used for the U.S. Saffir-Simpson scale. All of the storms in this plot had sustained 10-minute average winds of 75 mph or less when they made landfall. Image credit: NOAA.

A historical analogue: Typhoon Winnie of 1997
The largest storm surge observed at the coast in Shanghai since 1921 was 5.9 feet (1.81 meters) during Typhoon Emma of 1956. However, Emma's maximum surge did not occur at high tide (the difference between low tide and high tide in Shanghai is about 7.2 feet or 2.2 meters, so it makes a big difference when the maximum storm surge arrives, relative to high tide.) The highest storm tide (water level) in Shanghai came during Typhoon Winnie of August 1997. Although Winnie was only a Category 1 storm with 85 mph winds when it made landfall, and the storm struck relatively far from Shanghai, about 180 miles to the south, the storm surge from Winnie was only 5.5" (14 cm) below the top of the 19.2-foot (5.86 meter) Suzhou Creek floodgate that protects downtown Shanghai on the Huangpu River, which flows through the center of town. This floodwall was rated to protect against a 1-in-200 year flood, and was overtopped by about one foot (30 cm) along a 8.5 mile (13.7 km) section inland from the downtown area, flooding over 400 homes (source: Flood probability analysis of the Huangpu barrier in Shanghai, M.S. thesis by Qian Ke.) According to EM-DAT, Winnie killed 240 people and did $2.7 billion (1997 dollars) in damage to China. The floodwall protecting downtown Shanghai has been raised by 3.4 feet (1.05 meters) since then, giving the city protection against a 1-in-1000 year flood. Thus, it will take a much stronger storm than Winnie to flood the city. Chan-hom is predicted to be a much stronger storm at landfall than Winnie was, and is forecast to hit closer to Shanghai. The newly raised floodwalls of Shanghai may see their highest water levels in history when Chan-hom makes landfall, depending upon whether or not the peak storm surge occurs near high tide.

Low tide in Shanghai is at 07:07 UTC Saturday, about the time that Chan-hom is forecast to make landfall. That is potentially good news for the coastal region near the landfall point. However, high tide is at 12:48 UTC Saturday, at a time when the center of Chan-hom is predicted to be over land but just south of the city, so the counter-clockwise circulation around the center will be pushing water into the city. Fortunately, this high tide is not a very high one--high tides late next week will be more than two feet higher than this. Though Chan-hom will be weakening as it approaches Shanghai during Saturday's high tide, JTWC is predicting the storm will still be at Category 1 strength. If Chan-hom follows the JTWC track and intensity forecast, it will be capable of pushing a record-size storm surge into the city during this 12:48 UTC Saturday high tide, potentially challenging the 1-in-200 year water levels observed during Typhoon Winnie of 1997. I've read several studies explaining how storm surge propagation in the Yellow Sea is extremely complicated, so I am unsure just how the great the risk is from this storm without seeing data from a sophisticated real-time storm surge model, though.


Figure 3. Typhoon Winnie as it passed just south of Okinawa on August 17, 1997, at 11:36 UTC. Note that the small inner eyewall of the typhoon had become completely surrounded by a concentric 230-mile diameter eyewall. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Why was Typhoon Winnie's storm surge so high?
If Typhoon Winnie was only a Category 1 storm, and its center crossed the coast relatively far away from Shanghai (180 miles), why did it bring such a large storm surge to the city? Well, Winnie was a freak. According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) 1997 Annual Tropical Cyclone Report, as Winnie moved toward Okinawa on August 16, 1997, a large outer rain band began to encircle the inner eyewall. By the time the typhoon passed over Okinawa, the rain band had become a complete, 230 mile (370 km) diameter concentric outer eyewall, possibly the largest ever observed (tied with 1960's Typhoon Carmen, which also had a 230-mile diameter outer eyewall.) Whenever an intense tropical cyclone forms concentric eyewalls, the peak winds of the inner eyewall fall significantly, but the hurricane-force winds of the storm spread out over a wider area that encompasses the outer eyewall, increasing the size of the storm surge. Winnie's strong winds were able to pile up a massive mound of water into the relatively shallow waters of the Yellow Sea off the coast of Shanghai. Since the Yellow Sea is enclosed on three sides, with the Korean Peninsula blocking the flow of water to the northeast, this extra water had nowhere to go except up onto land when the center of Winnie pushed inland.


Figure 4. The 22.6-foot (6.9 meter) Suzhou Creek floodgate that protects downtown Shanghai from storm surges coming up the Huangpu River, which flows through the center of town. This floodwall is rated to protect against a 1-in-1000 year flood. Image credit: Dorothy Tang.

Sea level rise and Shanghai
Sea levels have been rising globally by about 3.3 mm per year over the past few decades. According to a 2015 study, Sea level change and city safety—The Shanghai as an example, sea levels have been rising a bit slower in Shanghai--about 2 mm/year, but the land has been sinking at more than double that rate, due to compaction of soil and groundwater pumping to support intensive urban development. As a result, the relative rise of sea level in the city has been about 7 mm/year, which is a huge concern for a city whose average ground level is already below the average high tide level. The authors predicted that over the next twenty years, Shanghai will see the relative sea level rise by 10 - 16 cm (3.9 - 6.3 inches), which will make storm surges from typhoons like Chan-hom more dangerous. With sea level rise likely to accelerate due to increased melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, Shanghai will be increasingly hard-pressed to keep the ocean at bay this century using ever-higher flood walls. A new approach, called the Yangtze River Delta Project (YDRP), offers a more innovative way to manage Shanghai's increasing flood risk due to the steadily rising seas. The YRDP research group develops "soft" infrastructural strategies (as opposed to "hard" floodwalls) to respond to sea level rise and storm surge. For example, the team is studying the flood control techniques devised by Yu the Great (2200-2100 BCE, founder of China's Xia Dynasty), who created a system of irrigation canals that channeled river floodwaters into agricultural fields, building low earthen dikes to guide the water’s flow. Other studies undertaken by the research group include projects for the transformation of New York and New Jersey’s Upper Harbor and a land-building sediment diversion proposal for the Mississippi River Delta.

The new Japanese Himawari satellite has some spectacular imagery of Chan-hom (Sector 4 in Band 3=visible, and Sector 6 in Band 13=IR.)

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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277. PlazaRed
11:46 PM GMT on July 10, 2015
OK, target zone of the blog; time here at 1.30 am Europe time.
The Storm of the day is about to start getting interesting, unless you happen to be on one of the numerous islands already in the activity area.

Link

So the above is now, relative to the time of the post!

Below is surface wind speeds about 12 hours from now.

Link

Doesn't look too much like an also ran.
Hope that thing get a bit quieter over the next few hours.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
276. Dakster
7:39 PM GMT on July 10, 2015
IMHO, looking at it this from TWC's bottom line. The best thing they could have done was buy a popular weather site online. I haven't watched the weather news on a TV in over 10 years. Whether that is the TWC on cable or my local news. I rarely watch things on "TV" anymore either. And I am not exactly a millennial either.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
275. ncstorm
4:27 PM GMT on July 10, 2015
Quoting 273. 69Viking:



Local news is good but not going to giving you updates as frequently as TWC does, at least it's not good enough for us when we're stuck out in the woods.


well I cant help where you live..I only speak on what I prefer to watch and its not TWC or weathernation..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
274. ncstorm
4:26 PM GMT on July 10, 2015
Quoting 271. Neapolitan:

Do you have actual, direct,verifiable evidence of these statements? Because if not, you should preface them with something such as, "This is just my own unsubstantiated opinion, but I believe the biggest reason viewership..."


You could have search google just like I did but here you go..from the Washington Post

The impact of losing DirecTV’s 20 million viewers cannot be dismissed – that’s a sizable chunk of The Weather Channel’s pool of 100 million viewers. The blow is especially harsh on top of a 19 percent overall drop in viewership since 2011, according to Nielsen data..

The Weather Channel has been criticized, by both viewers and DirecTV, for airing reality TV programs for significant chunks of time, rather than straight weather coverage.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
273. 69Viking
4:21 PM GMT on July 10, 2015
Quoting 236. ncstorm:



I would watch my local news for severe weather before TWC or weathernation..and yes I watched Weathernation, it was okay but nothing to brag about either..




Local news is good but not going to giving you updates as frequently as TWC does, at least it's not good enough for us when we're stuck out in the woods.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
272. LAbonbon
4:12 PM GMT on July 10, 2015
Quoting 205. weathermanwannabe:

And from the Chinese media:


HANGZHOU - China is on highest alert as super typhoon Chan-Hom approaches the eastern coast at high speeds.

The National Meteorological Center issued a red alert, the highest level of alert, on Friday morning for Chan-Hom, whose center was spotted 550 km southeast off the coast of Zhejiang province at 5 am.

The typhoon is moving northwestward from the East China Sea and will land somewhere between Fuding in Fujian province and Xiangshan in Zhejiang province.

The wind speed at the center of the typhoon is forecast to top 58 meters per second at landfall.

In Zhejiang, nearly 20,000 people have been evacuated and 20,000 fishing vessels returned to harbor for shelter. The province upgraded its emergency response by two levels to prepare for the typhoon. Direct shipping routes to Taiwan from Zhejiang have also been suspended since Thursday.

Waves as tall as 10 m were observed in the sea off the coast of Zhejiang.

"The upcoming typhoon seems very powerful. We have sealed all our windows and doors and have stored food," said Liu Yimin, a villager in coastal Huagang village.

Meanwhile, the Wenzhou city government has asked all 53,000 flood control staff in the city to stand by over the weekend.

The Fujian provincial flood control and drought relief headquarters ordered all people on coastal fishing farms in Ningde, Fuzhou, Pingtan and Putian to evacuate by 10 am Friday.

Shanghai also issued a typhoon alert on Friday warning of gales starting Friday afternoon and heavy rain on Saturday.

Typhoon Linfa made landfall on Thursday in the southern province of Guangdong, bringing torrential rain to the coast. No casualties have been reported.


'53,000 flood control staff'?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
271. Neapolitan
4:11 PM GMT on July 10, 2015
Quoting 256. ncstorm:



the biggest reason viewership has dropped is because TWC is no longer offering what it built the station on...mostly everyone who has been around during the active era and were affected by those those landfalling Cat 2/3/4 hurricanes, those dangerous tornado seasons or even those record breaking snow storms affecting them tuned in to TWC because it was quality reporting..

Now people dont even realize its still on...
Do you have actual, direct,verifiable evidence of these statements? Because if not, you should preface them with something such as, "This is just my own unsubstantiated opinion, but I believe the biggest reason viewership..."
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
270. Barefootontherocks
4:10 PM GMT on July 10, 2015
Quoting 263. weathermanwannabe:

Latest eye measurement at 10 nautical mile circumference on Chan-Hom:


TPPN11 PGTW 101527 

A. TYPHOON 09W (CHAN-HOM)

B. 10/1432Z

C. 27.54N

D. 123.48E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T4.0/5.0/W2.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. 10NM OW EYE SURROUNDED BY OW
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 4.0. PT AGREES. MET
YIELDS A 4.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
10/0933Z 27.07N 124.30E SSMS
10/0945Z 27.15N 124.25E SSMS
10/1044Z 27.23N 124.17E SSMS
10/1246Z 27.33N 123.82E MMHS


UEHARA

Ugh.
Saying a prayer for those living there.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
269. Patrap
4:10 PM GMT on July 10, 2015

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 JUL 2015 Time : 150000 UTC
Lat : 27:33:06 N Lon : 123:24:57 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 947.1mb/ 84.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.3 4.0 3.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : -7.1C Cloud Region Temp : -36.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : ON

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 260km
- Environmental MSLP : 998mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 40.0 degrees



Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
268. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
4:08 PM GMT on July 10, 2015
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
267. Barefootontherocks
4:06 PM GMT on July 10, 2015
Quoting 255. 69Viking:



They should have paid the higher fees, Weather Nation is crap and not near in depth as TWC. If they were going to drop TWC they should have had a better backup plan.
DIRECTV was only without Weather Channel for about three months. They broadcast it, but it is not available in a low-priced package. You gotta go up to DIRECTV's third level to get it, at least where I live. YRMV
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
266. Patrap
4:04 PM GMT on July 10, 2015
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
265. ncstorm
4:04 PM GMT on July 10, 2015
At&T has already taken over Directv..my At&T and DTV bills have been combined and now go soley through At&T..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
264. Patrap
4:02 PM GMT on July 10, 2015
O Snap, LoL....

Weather Channel wants to attract Weather Underground fans with new show

The Weather Channel is looking to get its geek on.

The cable channel will soon announce the mid-August launch of a daily two-hour live show that taps into the resources and quirky spirit of Weather Underground, the website for meteorological enthusiasts obsessive enough to own personal forecast stations.

The Weather Co., the Weather Channel's parent, acquired Weather Underground in 2012, much to the chagrin of the site's fans who love its grass-roots approach to forecasting. They feared a corporate takeover of the San Francisco-based entity which grew through a network of devoted followers supplying data from across the country would make Weather Underground more commercial and less sophisticated. The site was founded by several University of Michigan students in 1993, taking their name from the left-wing radical organization formed in the late 1960s.

But the weather geeks who populate Weather Underground are the viewers the Weather Channel wants to attract with its new show.

The Weather Channel's president, David Clark, told The Times that the Weather Underground program would depart from standard coverage, providing meteorological news and discussion that "will be done in a fun, fast-moving, youthful kind of way." Unlike the channel's slick studio look seen through most of the day, the Weather Underground proceedings will take place in a casual clubhouse atmosphere with a few bar stools, easy chairs and memorabilia.

The program, airing from 3 to 5 p.m. Pacific time, will be hosted by Weather Channel meteorologist and storm chaser Mike Bettes and use the Weather Underground's roster of experts and bloggers. Some of the site's contributors who supply their local data will also be invited to participate.

"They have a network of geeks that may not have a degree in weather, but they love it, and that's good enough for us," said Nora Zimmett, a former CNN producer now in charge of live programming for the Weather Channel.

The channel was one of the most valuable assets in cable before the iPhone was invented.

- Nora Zimmett, a former CNN producer

The Weather Underground show is the channel's latest bid to prove its value in an age when temperatures and forecasts are available in an instant on the Internet and mobile devices. The Weather Co. also owns Weather.com, the most visited Internet site for forecast information.

"The channel was one of the most valuable assets in cable before the iPhone was invented," Zimmett noted.

The privately held company, a consortium of NBCUniversal and private equity groups Blackstone Group and Bain Capital, saw the relevance of its 33-year-old cable channel come into serious question last year during a standoff with DirecTV. The nation's largest subscription video service provider refused to meet demands by the Weather Co. for an increase in fees to carry the Weather Channel, on the grounds that its content was widely available elsewhere. The Weather Channel was off DirecTV for three months before two sides agreed to terms.

The Weather Channel has always touted its role in public safety, providing continuous national coverage of storms and extreme weather. Viewership, which typically averages around 200,000 during the day, rose 11% in the first quarter of 2015 from a year earlier, thanks to brutal winter conditions in much of the U.S. There are even advertisers such as State Farm, Duracell and Home Depot that are ready with spots to air in the channel's disaster coverage.

But getting viewers to feel passionate about the Weather Channel during fair weather is a challenge. It tried in recent years by adding some climate-related reality series that looked as if they could have aired on outlets such as A&E or Discovery, but cut back on that programming as part of its new deal with DirecTV.

"Brands that attempt to be Swiss Army knives that have something for everybody %u2014 are failing," he said. "We're in an on-demand world. People can choose the best of everything. It's better to do really well with a passionate audience than it is to be all things to all people, especially in cable."

Clark said the channel has started moving in that direction, adding a half-hour science-oriented show called "WX Geeks." More scientific explanations are being weaved into regular coverage during the day.


Derek Baine, a senior analyst for media research firm SNL Kagan, said the channel is taking a smart course. "News and information has become such a commodity that any channels in this area need to change focus and develop more original programming," he said.

The Weather Underground show will be a true test of whether the channel can become more specialized. The deal to buy Weather Underground got a harsh reception from fans on Twitter. Before putting the brand's name on a TV show, the Weather Co. had to show it was true to its word that it would keep Weather Underground management in place and not alter the tone of the site.

"If we had launched this show back then it would have been rejected by the Weather Underground community," Clark said. "We're going to have to earn the respect of that community. If we do, it's a big success for us."


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
263. weathermanwannabe
4:01 PM GMT on July 10, 2015
Latest eye measurement at 10 nautical mile circumference on Chan-Hom:


TPPN11 PGTW 101527 

A. TYPHOON 09W (CHAN-HOM)

B. 10/1432Z

C. 27.54N

D. 123.48E

E. ONE/MTSAT

F. T4.0/5.0/W2.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. 10NM OW EYE SURROUNDED BY OW
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 4.0. PT AGREES. MET
YIELDS A 4.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
10/0933Z 27.07N 124.30E SSMS
10/0945Z 27.15N 124.25E SSMS
10/1044Z 27.23N 124.17E SSMS
10/1246Z 27.33N 123.82E MMHS


UEHARA
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
262. ncstorm
4:01 PM GMT on July 10, 2015
Quoting 259. 69Viking:



Are you kidding me, Weather Nation is generalized weather across the Nation and you get no local forecasts, all you get is a snapshot of your region. Sucks for knowing when storms are coming and might be just a few miles away. If you think Weather Nation comes anywhere close to replacing TWC then you just have it out for TWC and can't see the difference.


You got all of that out of my statement??..As I said "Directv replaced TWC" with weathernation during the dispute because of what viewers were complaining about not getting....did I say anything about Weathernation being quality TV..Did I say Weathernation was better than TWC..

Slow down..take deep breaths and not interpret your own feelings of TWC vs Weathernation into my statement..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
261. GreyJewel
4:01 PM GMT on July 10, 2015
"We in the US do not have the money, which is tight, to invest the needed billions of dollars to upgrade our infrastructure, including coastal barriers against surge and potential sea level rise in the future"

We have the money, it's just not being used to finance public works for the greater good. It's being given back to private citizens for them to use for private purposes and further private gain. Meanwhile, the social costs of their "investments" (carbon pollution, for example) are being laid off on all of us.

"while China has taken American monies and upgraded theirs"

Yep. Our companies provided lots of employment over there in order to create cheaper goods than could be made by (and then bought by) decently paid American workers. So we did indeed pour a lot of money into China, in lots of ways, so they could build those sturdy sea walls.

We could build sea walls too, and without using slave labor. We'd just have to rethink our some of our richest people's most cherished priorities.

Which will never happen. Bye-bye, Miami!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
259. 69Viking
3:57 PM GMT on July 10, 2015
Quoting 225. ncstorm:

Directv replaced TWC with weathernation to give viewers what they asked for originally and what TWC failed to give viewers and that was a channel that offered weather only


Are you kidding me, Weather Nation is generalized weather across the Nation and you get no local forecasts, all you get is a snapshot of your region. Sucks for knowing when storms are coming and might be just a few miles away. If you think Weather Nation comes anywhere close to replacing TWC then you just have it out for TWC and can't see the difference.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
258. weathermanwannabe
3:56 PM GMT on July 10, 2015
Loop from CNN through 11:30 EST:




Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
257. Barefootontherocks
3:52 PM GMT on July 10, 2015
Quoting 149. barbamz:


Source and more: Brian McNoldy, Univ. of Miami, Rosenstiel School

Wow. Tight eye. Good radar!

Thanks for posting the advisory @205, weathermanwannabe
58 m/sec = 129.7 mph for Chan -hom. In an advisory yesterday, forecasters were anticipating 40 m/sec. Storm really tightened up.

Quoting 231. BahaHurican:

They need to sell # packages ... let consumers pick what they want ... same model as isps use with data blocks ...
That would seem a wise business decision, as good-channel-picking alternatives to cable are out there now. Internet based.

Skye,
Had to look in your blog to see "that OK lake" cam has an Afton address and would be what most people call "Grand Lake." Some of the flow may be regulated by USACE. Was still raining pretty good through yesterday over much of OK, but (knock wood) no rain in the 7-day for the first time in I don't know how long and a sunny weekend in store for the first time in several weeks. :)
........

Have a wu-full weekend, All.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
256. ncstorm
3:52 PM GMT on July 10, 2015
Quoting 237. Naga5000:



All I was trying to point out is that the big drop was for lots of different reasons, a nuance left out of the graphic which makes it seem like everyone is just leaving the TWC because of programming, which is certainly true for some. I wasn't disagreeing, just adding context. Context good.


Naga, the biggest reason viewership has dropped is because TWC is no longer offering what it built the station on...mostly everyone who has been around during the active era and were affected by those those landfalling Cat 2/3/4 hurricanes, those dangerous tornado seasons or even those record breaking snow storms affecting them tuned in to TWC because it was quality reporting..

Now people dont even realize its still on and thats sad..its going to take a situation of weather that will affect millions for TWC to have a chance to redeem itself and even then will people still tune in or resort to social media for news..I'm thinking the latter..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
255. 69Viking
3:52 PM GMT on July 10, 2015
Quoting 216. ncstorm:



LOL.."champ"..

Listen, I understand, I would be upset too to hear that my pockets might be affected especially seeing those numbers..$$$$..

I really thought the breakdown was because Directv said it was not going to have customers pay those higher fees because TWC was not providing what it was offering as I am a Directv customer myself..












They should have paid the higher fees, Weather Nation is crap and not near in depth as TWC. If they were going to drop TWC they should have had a better backup plan.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
254. 69Viking
3:49 PM GMT on July 10, 2015
Say what you want about TWC but when your 20 miles deep into the woods of Alabama and only have DirectTV to give you any weather information because there is NO cell service TWC leaving DirectTV sucks. Their stupid Weather Nation is useless. We now have no idea if we have storms coming that could potentially cause the creek to flood and strand somebody in the woods because they can't make it back across the creek to get to the house. TWC had local radar we could see every 10 minutes so with them we knew when storms were coming and knew to stay on the same side of the creek as to where the house sits.

Sure TWC has too much reality TV but they still show you the weather and the local forecast with live radar and when you don't have cell service or internet it is very useful. Bottom line is Weather Nation sucks and I would love to have TWC back on DirectTV.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
253. Xulonn
3:48 PM GMT on July 10, 2015
Quoting 96. sar2401:
I'll only say that was the most unprofessional rant I've ever read from a man who's supposed to be a professional climatologist. ... It seems he has obsessively been tracking temperature records since the 70's. That's good, and I respect that. I just don't find any evidence he's other than a self-proclaimed climatologist. I'm certainly open to correction if someone can find evidence that differs.
You are correct, Sar. According to the "Meteorólogos Amateur de Costa Rica" Facebook page, Maximiliano Herrera has a degree in political science and is an amateur meteorologist.

Sr. Herrera is not a professional and his outburst was not professional - it was obviously based on a dislike of Joe Bastardi, which I can understand. Bastardi is a dishonest buffoon and publishes many falsehoods about weather and climate. Although Joe Bastardi is technically a professional, much of his b.s. and blatherings are not professional.

The entire urination contest here last night - a male ego fight - over temperature records was ridiculous. The whole unproductive exchange was nothing more than "bickering" - which is against the rules and should have been stopped by the mods.

My view on global temperature records:

1. It is valid to post WMO regional records, but in this age of AGW/CC with many records falling, it would be appropriate to do a bit of research and note pending new records. To not do so indicates laziness or a denier tactic. A slow WMO verification process is no big deal - it doesn't matter in the long term.

2. It is stupid to imply that absolute maximum and minimum large-scale regional records trump local records as the only indicator of AGW/CC. (e.g., claiming or insinuating that only if those records are broken is there evidence in the records of GW.) Such misleading comments are consistent with AGW/CC denialist tactics to avoid admitting that the world is warming, and the fact that many more high temp local records are being set around the world compared to low temp records.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
252. StormTrackerScott
3:47 PM GMT on July 10, 2015
A AEI signal of over 3 sigma in progress. Stronger WWB & MJo are helping to increase sea surface anomalies across Nino 3 & Nino 3.4

Michael Ventrice @MJVentrice 1h1 hour ago
@Bubbaturch7 @forecastguy @EricBlake12 Current Nino event is already stronger in atmospheric expression than 97'! WWB could keep amp high


2C anomalies continue to spread west toward Nino 3.4. Should see atleast a 1.5C or even 1.6C reading next week by the CPC.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
251. fuzed
3:46 PM GMT on July 10, 2015
Sorry if this a repeat, but here is page of a couple of Shanghai web cams > http://www.onedir.com/
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250. Webberweather53
3:44 PM GMT on July 10, 2015
Quoting 248. Xandra:


No, I didn't miss that part. IMO, a season with 28 Named Storms, 15 Hurricanes and 7 Major Hurricanes (2005) is more active than a season with 20 Named Storms, 11 Hurricanes and 6 Major Hurricanes (1933).



In your opinion? How about some hard evidence that the NS, H, & MHs counts are superior to the ACE index in measuring in seasonal activity. You do realize that NOAA's standard methodology to measure seasonal activity is the ACE index? See post 241 & read up on some literature while you're at it...

This isn't even an argument...
"The phrase "total overall seasonal activity" refers to the combined intensity and duration of Atlantic named storms and hurricanes occurring during the season. The measure of total seasonal activity used by NOAA is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index."
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
249. BahaHurican
3:43 PM GMT on July 10, 2015
One other point of comparison China vs U.S. .... cooler waters off the Chinese east coast contribute to decreased storm impact ... a similar storm off the U.S. coast would have much warmer SSTs to work with ...
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248. Xandra
3:39 PM GMT on July 10, 2015
Quoting 224. Webberweather53:



With 259 points of Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), 1933 is actually first place... I guess you missed that part.
Link


No, I didn't miss that part. IMO, a season with 28 Named Storms, 15 Hurricanes and 7 Major Hurricanes (2005) is more active than a season with 20 Named Storms, 11 Hurricanes and 6 Major Hurricanes (1933).
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
247. LargoFl
3:36 PM GMT on July 10, 2015
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
246. weathermanwannabe
3:35 PM GMT on July 10, 2015
I could go on and on about China, and their US investments, but Mother Nature does not discriminate and I am praying that their people fare well with minimal loss of life as a result of the Typhoons.  I am just noting, as a political scientist, and leading up to the current political cycle, that we spend so much time/money/arguments turning against each other in this Country when the fact of the matter is (and I would argue this), that we actually live in the United States of "China" based upon their ownership of most of the US government debt and now snapping up US real estate.  No one talks about this in the news or in politics like they should.  Will finally note, that China has a vested interest in seeing the US do well; they have sunk most of their cash back into the US.
I will stick to the weather for the remainder of the day............................................... ................ :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
245. LargoFl
3:35 PM GMT on July 10, 2015
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
244. Patrap
3:34 PM GMT on July 10, 2015
Please, keep the Human element in focus and not your politics between US and China.

"Forbes" deserves their credit line as well,too

We paid CASH for the Se La, 14.5 billion dollar Levee Protection System UPGRADE.


"Calamity knows no borders, only Men's minds and maps do."
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
243. BahaHurican
3:33 PM GMT on July 10, 2015
Re post 232

Meanwhile U.S. politicians are refighting the civil war and the civil rights movement battles ... living among past glories without understanding that financial control of the world has passed on ...

And cutting back on the things that have kept it on the cutting edge of things, especially re science and technology .... :o/
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242. LargoFl
3:29 PM GMT on July 10, 2015
GFS for Monday..perhaps the Carolina's northward may want to stay a lil alert...................
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241. Webberweather53
3:28 PM GMT on July 10, 2015
Quoting 204. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Depends on what perspective you take. More storms and landfalls vs. ACE. I think the fact we got into the Greek Alphabet just makes 2005 more memorable and relevant.


We also didn't have the monitoring capabilities in the 1930s to detect & name storms that were thousands of miles out to sea & we likely observed significantly more activity than is currently indicated by NOAA. The ACE index is the standard that's used by NOAA to measure the overall activity of a hurricane season, landfalling storms, & actual numbers of storms may be correlated to the general amount of activity, but they comparatively poor measures of how active a hurricane season is (was), since the ACE index takes into account duration, intensity, and the fact that the energy of an air molecule is 1/2 mv^2, with all other factors remaining constant, the incident energy of an air parcel is proportional to the square of the speed of the moving air particle (wind), hence the ACE index is calculated for all tropical cyclones with winds >/= 35 knots to the nearest 5 knots,... squared. Per capita, 1933 is the most active season in the historical record...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
240. Snacker2
3:27 PM GMT on July 10, 2015
Quoting 186. Naga5000:



I made no comment about it being good news or bad news for TWC, obviously a major decrease in viewership is bad, but a hefty percentage of that comes directly from cord cutters, and see post 180, NC confirms the whole "sucking" that was implied in the original post.


I'm a cord cutter too. I remember when The Weather Channel was all about Weather. Back in the 80's to mid 90's it was pure science and excellent interpretations like a blow-by-blow to what was going on across the nation. It would make for some pretty low viewership with a dry week in February but whenever a noreaster was going on or a storm was forecast to develop, I would overdose on TWC.
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239. Patrap
3:27 PM GMT on July 10, 2015
Chan Hom's impact is well underway now.


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238. TropicalAnalystwx13
3:26 PM GMT on July 10, 2015
Quoting 230. whitewabit:



did you ever watch it ?? It was pretty lame as far as up to date weather .. you want your forecast for today or tomorrow it was great .. a tornado bearing down on your town .. watch the local news it was faster !!

I tuned in to watch for coverage of a tornado outbreak--I can't remember which one last year. But they weren't even covering it! They were giving the forecast for the Southwest!

No thanks, I'll stick with TWC.
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237. Naga5000
3:25 PM GMT on July 10, 2015
Quoting 216. ncstorm:



LOL.."champ"..

Listen, I understand, I would be upset too to hear that my pockets might be affected especially seeing those numbers..$$$$..

I really thought the breakdown was because Directv said it was not going to have customers pay those higher fees because TWC was not providing what it was offering as I am a Directv customer myself..












All I was trying to point out is that the big drop was for lots of different reasons, a nuance left out of the graphic which makes it seem like everyone is just leaving the TWC because of programming, which is certainly true for some. I wasn't disagreeing, just adding context. Context good.
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236. ncstorm
3:25 PM GMT on July 10, 2015
Quoting 230. whitewabit:



did you ever watch it ?? It was pretty lame as far as up to date weather .. you want your forecast for today or tomorrow it was great .. a tornado bearing down on your town .. watch the local news it was faster !!


I would watch my local news for severe weather before TWC or weathernation..and yes I watched Weathernation, it was okay but nothing to brag about either..

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235. OviedoWatcher
3:25 PM GMT on July 10, 2015
Quoting 215. whitewabit:



To do that the cable companies would have to engineer a device to split out only the channels one would buy in that instance .. might be cost prohibitive to replace all those boxes ..


They already do to some extent, which is how you can buy separate premium packages, so the tech is already in their set-top boxes. Presumably we would end up with selecting from a list of a couple of hundred one- or two- channel packages.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
234. FrostyNaples
3:23 PM GMT on July 10, 2015
Quoting 227. whitewabit:



True they flip a switch and you have what premium channel you want .. but do they have the capabilities for all 300 some channel they have ?? I doubt it does .. so new equipment would have to come on line ..


Yes, they can flip the switch on any of them.

You ever notice when you have a basic cable package, if you reach a channel not included, you usually see a message 'not authorized', etc.

The have absolute control.

You do however need to have an HD set top box or better (DVR, ETC), as the plain old digital converter boxes do not have the same capabilities.

Fundamentally we are simply talking about computers here, everything has an IP address, content is either given or restricted.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
233. OviedoWatcher
3:22 PM GMT on July 10, 2015
Quoting 205. weathermanwannabe:

And from the Chinese media:


HANGZHOU - China is on highest alert as super typhoon Chan-Hom approaches the eastern coast at high speeds.

The National Meteorological Center issued a red alert, the highest level of alert, on Friday morning for Chan-Hom, whose center was spotted 550 km southeast off the coast of Zhejiang province at 5 am.

The typhoon is moving northwestward from the East China Sea and will land somewhere between Fuding in Fujian province and Xiangshan in Zhejiang province.

The wind speed at the center of the typhoon is forecast to top 58 meters per second at landfall.

In Zhejiang, nearly 20,000 people have been evacuated and 20,000 fishing vessels returned to harbor for shelter. The province upgraded its emergency response by two levels to prepare for the typhoon. Direct shipping routes to Taiwan from Zhejiang have also been suspended since Thursday.

Waves as tall as 10 m were observed in the sea off the coast of Zhejiang.

"The upcoming typhoon seems very powerful. We have sealed all our windows and doors and have stored food," said Liu Yimin, a villager in coastal Huagang village.

Meanwhile, the Wenzhou city government has asked all 53,000 flood control staff in the city to stand by over the weekend.

The Fujian provincial flood control and drought relief headquarters ordered all people on coastal fishing farms in Ningde, Fuzhou, Pingtan and Putian to evacuate by 10 am Friday.

Shanghai also issued a typhoon alert on Friday warning of gales starting Friday afternoon and heavy rain on Saturday.

Typhoon Linfa made landfall on Thursday in the southern province of Guangdong, bringing torrential rain to the coast. No casualties have been reported.



I have visited Zhiejiang province quite a few times for work, and in my opinion, if it hits around Xiangshan, it will not be pleasant. Further south, the country is hillier, but there it is pretty low and flat and the population density even outside the city is pretty high. It is reasonably built up pretty much all the way from Shanghai down to Xiangshan, with some open country interspersed with a lot of factories and homes. The storm surge could really do a lot of damage, plus from what I have seen there and in Shanghai, wind resistance isn't really considered in the building codes, or at least in the actual buildings. That whole coastal area is full of fairly tall buildings (typically 8 or 13 floor apartment blocks), and I have been told a number of stories about them collapsing or sinking due to developers cutting costs, even without any help from high winds.
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232. weathermanwannabe
3:22 PM GMT on July 10, 2015
We in the US do not have the money, which is tight, to invest the needed billions of dollars to upgrade our infrastructure, including coastal barriers against surge and potential sea level rise in the future, while China has taken American monies and upgraded theirs (and recently buying the Waldorf Astoria in NY for 1.9 Billion). Just sayin.......

America's most famous hotel will soon be under Chinese ownership as the Hilton Hotel group today announced that it would be selling the Waldorf Astoriato a Chinese insurer for $1.95 billion.

The acquisition by China's Anbang Insurance Group set a record for the largest acquisition of a U.S. real estate asset by a Chinese buyer, as well as being the most expensive purchase ever of a U.S. hotel. The price paid for the 1,413 room hotel means Anbang committed approximately $1.4 million per room for the art deco landmark.


The deal also heralds the arrival of China's state-owned insurance companies into the U.S. market, where the country's private companies are already the leading foreign property buyers.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
231. BahaHurican
3:21 PM GMT on July 10, 2015
Quoting 222. Barefootontherocks:

I don't know that TWC is available individually yet, Matt. Maybe they are headed that way. I do know UNBUNDLE is the way of the now and the future - and thanks for that goes to the young adult generation who want simplicity. No frills. Earth kindness. More and more we will be able to subscribe to individual networks that have till now only been bundled. As you note, unbundling is occurring already. Already there are unbundled networks - big ones like HBO - available to individuals on an individual basis with NO cable hook-up (unless your net is cable).

Programming vs. money will soon become programming IS money. Poorly programmed stations will have fewer subscribers, therefore less income than when offered in a bundle. Good product, you get paid well. Bad product, few will want it.
They need to sell # packages ... let consumers pick what they want ... same model as isps use with data blocks ...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
230. whitewabit
3:21 PM GMT on July 10, 2015
Quoting 225. ncstorm:

Directv replaced TWC with weathernation to give viewers what they asked for originally and TWC failed to give viewers

a channel that offered weather only


did you ever watch it ?? It was pretty lame as far as up to date weather .. you want your forecast for today or tomorrow it was great .. a tornado bearing down on your town .. watch the local news it was faster !!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
229. Skyepony (Mod)
3:20 PM GMT on July 10, 2015
This is that lake in OK I've also had in my entries a while. Was about to take it down once the big tree got out of the water. It almost did & then it rained a few days. It's taken a full day for the water to run into it & for it to rise, nearly as high as the peak of the flooding from Bill. Now the shore and neighbor's dock is gone again, as is the soccer goal looking thing next to the tree. Someone brought the boat in some. If it gets much higher the dock farther out goes completely under.
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228. Patrap
3:20 PM GMT on July 10, 2015



Weathernation is a inferior product that runs on the free air stations.

Not much weathernation on cable, if you check dat.

: )
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
227. whitewabit
3:18 PM GMT on July 10, 2015
Quoting 220. tampabaymatt:



They would? If I change my subscription to add HBO or Showtime (or take them away), my cable company doesn't give me a new box.


True they flip a switch and you have what premium channel you want .. but do they have the capabilities for all 300 some channel they have ?? I doubt it does .. so new equipment would have to come on line ..
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather