Hurricane and Tropical Cyclones
Tropical Weather Discussion
000 axpz20 knhc 302111 twdepTropical weather discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2111 UTC Thu Mar 30 2017Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32n, east of 140w. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis.Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC....Intertropical convergence zone/monsoon trough...A surface trough axis extends from 07n85w to 05n93w to 07n100w. The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 06n102w to 02n120w to 02n131w. Scattered moderate convection is from 05n to 07n between 82w and 84w, and also within 90 nm northwest of a line from 04n125w to 03n128w to 01n132w....Discussion...Offshore waters within 250 nm of Mexico...A ridge extends se from 1031 mb high pressure centered near 33n139w to the revillagigedo islands. Moderate to fresh NW breezes to the W of Baja California will become fresh to strong north of 27n tonight through Sunday night as a weak cold front off the coast of Southern California pushes se into the area. Seas in zone pmz011 will peak at 10 to 14 ft on Friday, then subside to around 8 ft on Sunday before another round of NW swell cause seas in zone pmz011 to rebuild to between 10 and 12 ft on Monday. Winds will diminish over the Baja California norte coastal zones from E to W Saturday night and Sunday as high pressure builds over the area. Seas off Baja California sur will remain between 7 and 9 ft off Baja California norte through the middle of next week.The cold front will support a brief period of strong winds over the Gulf of California N of 29.5n late tonight through Friday. Otherwise, gentle to moderate NW winds will persist through the forecast period.Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere through the rest of the week.Offshore waters within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and within 750 nm of Ecuador...Gap wind events are not expected to reach minimum forecast thresholds the next several days over the Central American coastal and offshore waters. Light to gentle winds and 3-5 ft seas are expected to prevail over the forecast waters during the next several days.Remainder of the area...Strong 1031 mb high pres centered near 33n139w dominates the forecast waters north of 20n. The pressure gradient between the high and lower pressure near the Equator is generating fresh trade winds from roughly 06n to 20n west of 125w. Seas in this area range between 8 and 11 ft as long period NW swell mix with shorter period NE wind waves. The areal coverage of the trades will diminish through Friday as the high moves west and weakens slightly in response to a passing cold front.Marine conditions over the forecast region will change little during the next few days under the influence of this broad ridge. Large NW swell associated with a stalling cold front NW of the area will reach the NW part of the forecast area Saturday night and the NE part of the forecast area on Monday. Seas in these areas will build to between 10 and 13 ft in long period NW swell. Long period SW swell from the southern hemisphere will cause seas from the Equator and 03.4s between 110w and 120w to build to nearly 8 ft Friday morning through Saturday morning.$$ Lewitsky
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