Tropical Weather Discussion

axnt20 knhc 310002

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Tropical weather discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/monsoon trough...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12n17w to 
06n18w to 02n20w. The ITCZ extends from 02n20w to the Equator at 
26w and continues to the coast of South American near 04s39w. 
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from the 
Equator to 04n between 16w-26w.


Gulf of Mexico...

As of 30/2100 UTC, a squall line extends from near Pensacola, 
Florida to 28n88w to 25n93w. The strongest thunderstorm activity 
was N of 28.5n to the Florida coast. A cold front was trailing 
the squall line and extended from near Lafayette, Louisiana 
through 25n93.5w to the coast of Mexico north of Veracruz. 
Earlier scatterometer data indicated northerly winds of 20-25 
kt NW of the front. Over the past several hours, winds have 
diminished significantly with buoys reporting light and variable 
winds of 5-10 kt. Moderate to fresh E to se winds were noted 
over the Gulf N of 25n and east of the squall line. In the upper 
levels, an fairly sharp upper level trough extends from a deep 
layered cyclone over Missouri southward across extreme western 
Lousiana and the NW Gulf with strong upper level subsidence in 
its wake. Strong upper level difluence E of the trough over the 
NE Gulf of Mexico supported the ongoing squall line in the area. 
Satellite derived winds at the upper levels were around 100 kt 
in the vicinity of the squall line. The cold front is forecast 
to move east along the Gulf Coast to the Florida Panhandle and 
weaken with high pressure settling over the northern Gulf. 
Moderate to locally fresh se to S return flow resumes along the 
Texas coast by late Fri.  

Caribbean Sea...

As of 30/2100 UTC, the tail end of a weakening stationary front 
extended over the Leeward Islands to 15n65w. Scattered low 
topped showers are within 60 nm of the front. The remainder of 
the Caribbean Sea was governed by a relatively modest surface 
pressure gradient with 15-20 kt NE tradewinds noted N of 15n 
between 67w and 73w...and E to se winds of 15-20 kt noted over 
the basin W of 85w. Lighter winds of 10 kt or so were noted in 
between the two areas. Scattered showers were noted over the E 
central Caribbean within 60-90 nm of a line from 16n62w to 
14n72w. In the upper levels, a broad Flat Ridge was noted over 
the Caribbean with axis along 77w. A shear axis was noted E of 
the ridge across the NE Caribbean extending to 15n71w. Strong 
deep layered subsidence was noted within the shear axis 
extending westward over most of the basin. The stationary front 
is forecast to dissipate tonight with only a remnant shear axis 
remaining into Fri. Little change is expected elsewhere.  


Patches of broken to locally overcast low and mid clouds were 
noted over Hispaniola. The 1200 UTC rawinsonde from Santo 
Domingo indicated a modest amount of moisture to 700 mb with a 
very strong cap and subsidence above that level. This was 
representative of the airmass over the region. :Little change is 
expected into the weekend.   

Atlantic Ocean...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31n55w to 26n70w where 
it transitioned to a weakening stationary front which continued 
through 28n75w to 31n80w. Scattered low topped showers were 
noted within 60 nm of the front. Further east, another cold 
front associated with a strong extra-tropical storm well north 
of the area extended from 31n42w and continued to 21n51w, where 
it transitioned to a weakening stationary front to 16n62w. 
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted N of 22n 
and within 180 nm E of the front. A 1024 mb high is centered 
over the E Atlantic near 33n20w. In the upper levels, an broad 
upper level trough is over the central Atlantic N of 20n between 
40w-65w supporting the surface fronts. An upstream shortwave 
ridge was noted over the western Atlantic with axis along 75w. 
The cold fronts are forecast to continue moving east over the 
next 24 hours. 

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