Tropical Weather Discussion

axnt20 knhc 230604

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
204 am EDT Tue may 23 2017

Tropical weather discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0515 UTC.

...Tropical waves...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21w/22w from 10n 
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Convective precipitation:
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 04n to 07n between 20w
and 23w. 

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39w/40w, from 13n
southward. Convective precipitation. Any nearby precipitation is
part of the ITCZ precipitation.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73w/74w from 18n southward
into Colombia, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective 
precipitation: nothing significant. The wave is moving through
an area of upper level SW wind flow.

...ITCZ/monsoon trough...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Guinea near
11n15w, to 08n17w and 07n21w. The ITCZ continues from 07n21w to
06n30w and 04n38w 05n46w, and to the coast of Brazil near 04n51w. 
01n38w. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong from 03n to 08n 12w and 20w. Isolated moderate elsewhere
from 10n southward from 60w eastward.


...The Gulf of Mexico...

Upper level NW wind flow spans the area. This NW wind flow is on
the northwestern side of the NW Caribbean Sea trough. A stationary
front is in the coastal waters/coastal plains between the Florida
Pensacola to the deep south of Texas. Convective precipitation:
scattered strong from 26n northward between 87w and 92w.

...Visibility in miles, and weather, for the offshore oil 
platform sites, that are in the area whose boundaries are from 27n
northward and from 88w westward...

Khhv, kvaf, kemk, khqi, and kmdj : 2 to 3, and mist.

Kgul, kgbk, kgry, and kdlp : 3 to 5 and mist.

Keir and kspr : 5 and mist and haze.

Visibility in miles, and weather, for the coastal plains of the 
U.S.A., From the deep south of Texas to Florida...

Texas: Edinburg has been reporting visibilities as low as 1/4 mile
and 1/2 mile during the last few observations. Louisiana: light
rain from Slidell, to the southern side of Lake Pontchartrain, to
Boothville. Mississippi: rain, sometimes heavy, from McComb to
Hattiesburg. Light rain in the southernmost parts of the state,
between Alabama and Louisiana. Alabama: rain in Mobile and Fort
Rucker. Florida: light rain from Crestview southward to the coast.

...The Caribbean Sea...

An upper level trough extends from Cuba to eastern sections of
Honduras. Upper level SW and W wind flow covers the rest of the
Caribbean Sea. Convective precipitation: broken to overcast 
multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers cover the Caribbean 
Sea within 240 nm to the se of the upper level trough.

The monsoon trough is along 08n75w in Colombia, beyond western
Panama, and NW Costa Rica. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong from 07n in Colombia to 12n in the SW
corner of the Caribbean Sea, between 73w and 87w. 


Upper level SW and W wind flow moves across the area.

Surface observations...for the dominican republic: Santo domingo:
VFR. La Romana and Punta cana: VFR. Santiago: VFR. Puerto plata:
VFR. Few cumulonimbus clouds. 

The GFS model forecast for 250 mb shows that day one of the
48-hour forecast will start with a central Cuba-to-eastern 
Honduras/NE Nicaragua trough, and SW and W wind flow moving across
Hispaniola. The trough will move to Hispaniola by the end of day
one, bringing cyclonic wind flow to the area. The trough will move
across and away from Hispaniola during and by the end of day two.
Expect NW wind flow during and by the end of day two. The GFS 
model forecast for 500 mb shows that an anticyclonic circulation 
center will be to the south of Hispaniola at the beginning of day 
one. Start with SW wind flow for the first 6 hours to 12 hours, 
followed by anticyclonic wind flow during the rest of day one. 
Expect anticyclonic wind flow during the first 12 hours to 18 
hours of day two. Expect E to se winds during the rest of day two.
The GFS model forecast for 700 mb shows that Hispaniola will be 
on the western end of an Atlantic Ocean-to- Hispaniola east-to-
west oriented ridge. Expect southerly wind flow during the first 
12 hours or so, followed by se wind flow.

...The Atlantic Ocean...

A central Atlantic Ocean to east central Atlantic Ocean upper 
level trough passes through 32n42w to 26n49w and 20n54w. The 
trough supports a cold front that spans the area that is between 
40w and 63w. A surface trough is along 29n43w 26n49w, and 25n53w. 
Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 24n 
northward between 37w and 80w. 

A surface ridge extends from a 1021 mb high pressure center that 
is near 33n23w, to a 1022 mb high pressure center that is near
29n28w. The ridge continues from 29n28w, to 24n37w and 21n48w.
Surface high pressure also covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20n
northward from 54w westward.

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