Tropical Weather Discussion

axnt20 knhc 201207

Tropical weather discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
707 am EST Sat Jan 20 2018

Tropical weather discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32n. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1145 UTC.

...Special features...

The trade wind flow in the south-central Caribbean is expected to
reach gale-force early Sunday morning near the coast of Colombia.
A Gale Warning is currently in effect for this area. See the 
latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers 
miahsfep2/fzpn03 knhc for more details.

...Monsoon trough/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 07n12w and 
continues to 03n18w. The ITCZ begins near 03n18w and extends 
westward to 0n41w. Scattered moderate rain showers are from 01n to
05n between 10w-16w and within 150 nm either side of the ITCZ.


...Gulf of Mexico...

A broad surface ridge prevails across the southeast conus and 
SW N Atlantic extendning westward across Florida and the Gulf. In
the far western Basin, A surface trough along Mexico adjacent
waters continue to weaken. Radar and satellite imagery show
isolated showers in the NW and se Gulf. Latest scatterometer and
surface observations depict light to moderate return flow across 
the Gulf. No major changes expected during this weekend. The next
cold front will come off the coast of Texas Monday morning, extend
from the Florida Big Bend SW to near Tuxpan, Mexico Tuesday
morning and across South Florida to the central Gulf waters late
Wednesday to Thursday.

...Caribbean Sea...

The southern end of a frontal boundary over the Atlantic is
analyzed as a stationary front that extends across the Caribbean 
Sea from eastern Cuba, then becomes weak to just off the coast of
Honduras. Scattered showers prevail in the vicinity of the front
between 75w-85w. Similar activity lies south of 13n west of 80w 
aided by upper-level diffluent flow. Fresh to strong northeasterly
winds are noted between 70w-82w, while moderate trades prevail
elsewhere. The trade wind flow to the east of the front is 
expected to increase to gale-force near the coast of Colombia 
this weekend as high pressure builds to the north of the area. See
the special features section for more details.


Partly cloudy skies and scattered showers prevail across the 
island as a stalled front lies just to the west of the area. 
This scenario will continue through the weekend. Fresh northeasterly
winds will continue over the Windward Passage for another day as 
high pressure builds across the western Atlantic.

...Atlantic Ocean...

A cold front is moving over the central Atlantic from 31n50w to
22n67w, then becomes stationary from that point to 21n74w. 
Moderate to fresh winds prevail along and west of the stationary 
front, while gentle to moderate winds are noted near the cold 
front. High pressure is building in the wake of the front across 
the west Atlantic. To the east of the front, a surface trough 
extends from 24n45w to 18n48w. Elsewhere, the Bermuda-Azores high
dominates the remainder of the central and eastern Atlantic. 

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