Tropical Weather Discussion


abpw10 pgtw 180600
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans/180600z-190600zapr2018//
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) an area of convection (invest 94p) has persisted near 
12.2s 178.2e, approximately 335 nm north of nadi, Fiji. Animated 
multispectral satellite imagery (msi) and a 180339z ssmis 91ghz 
microwave image reveal a consolidating low level circulation center 
(LLCC) with fragmented, formative banding beginning to wrap into the 
LLCC. The surrounding environment is favorable for development with 
moderate vertical wind shear (15-20kts), good equatorward outflow, 
enhanced poleward outflow improving due to the proximity of the 
westerlies, and warm sea surface temperatures (28-29 celsius). 
Global models depict the system tracking poleward however, the 
models have yet to indicate any significant tropical cyclone 
development. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 20 to 
25 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1004 
mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical 
cyclone within the next 24 hours is medium.
      (2) no other suspect areas.//

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