Tropical Weather Discussion


abpw10 pgtw 212030
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
/South Pacific oceans reissued/212030z-220600zaug2018//
ref/b/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/211351zaug2018//
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/211355zaug2018//
narr/refs b and a are tropical cyclone warnings.//
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary:
      (1) at 211800z, typhoon 23w (Cimaron) was located near 23.0n
141.3e, approximately 108 nm south of iwo to, Japan, and had tracked
northwestward at 17 knots over the past six hours. Maximum sustained
surface winds were estimated at 90 knots gusting to 110 knots. See
ref b (wtpn31 pgtw 211500) for further details.
      (2) at 211800z, typhoon 22w (Soulik) was located near 29.8n
128.7e, approximately 204 nm north- northeast of Kadena AB, Okinawa,
Japan, and had tracked west- northwestward at 11 knots over the past
six hours. Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 95
knots gusting to 115 knots. See ref a (wtpn35 pgtw 211500) for
further details.
      (3) no other tropical cyclones.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) an area of convection (invest 92w) has persisted near
22.0n 118.0e, approximately 262 nm southwest of Taipei. A recent
ascat metop-a pass depicts a closed, well-defined low level
circulation with a large swath of 20 knot winds to the southern
sector. Infrared imagery shows the circulation as fully exposed with
sparse deep convection to the south. Upper level analysis indicates
a moderate environment with low vertical wind shear (5-10kt), but
very little divergence. Sea surface temperatures are favorable at 28-
30c. Global models are in good agreement that the circulation will
gradually intensify as it moves northeast. Maximum sustained surface
winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is
estimated to be near 997 mb. The potential for the development of a
significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
3. Justification for reissue: added area in para 1.B.(1)//

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