Tropical Weather Discussion

000 

abpw10 pgtw 240200
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the western and
South Pacific oceans reissued/240200z-240600zaug2017//
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/230751zaug2017//
ref/b/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/240051zaug2017//
narr/ref a is a tropical cyclone final warning. Ref b is a
tropical cyclone formation alert.//
Rmks/
1. Western North Pacific area (180 to Malay Peninsula):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary:
      (1) at 230600z, typhoon 15w (hato) was located near 22.2n 
112.9e, approximately 72 nm west of Hong Kong, and had tracked west-
northwestward at 16 knots over the past six hours. Maximum sustained 
surface winds were estimated at 85 knots gusting to 105 knots. See 
ref a (wtpn31 pgtw 230900) for the final warning on this system.
      (2) no other tropical cyclones.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 96w) previously located 
near 14.5n 132.3e, is now located near 15.7n 129.2e, approximately 
570 nm east of Manila, Philippines. Animated multispectral satellite 
imagery shows a slightly elongated low level circulation center with 
low level banding beginning to form and persistent convection 
located around and wrapping into the center. A 231927z ssmis 91ghz 
microwave image confirms the slightly elongated shape of the 
circulation and also depicts banding and deep convection wrapping 
in. The disturbance is currently located in a favorable environment 
with strong equatorward outflow, moderate vertical wind shear (15-20 
knots), and extremely warm sea surface temperatures (30-32 c). 
Global models indicate that the disturbance will track to the west-
northwest over the next several days, although they are split as to 
when the disturbance will consolidate. Maximum sustained surface 
winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is 
estimated to be near 1010 mb. The potential for the development of a 
significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to 
high. See ref b (wtpn21 pgtw 240100) for further details.
      (2) an area of convection (invest 97w) has persisted near 
10.1n 168.3e, approximately 1025 nm east-southeast of andersen AFB, 
Guam. Animated multispectral satellite imagery depicts low level 
banding wrapping into a broad low level circulation with flaring 
convection. A 232252 metop-a mhs 89 ghz microwave image shows 
formative banding wrapping into a small area of deep convection. The 
disturbance is located in a moderately favorable environment with 
good upper level outflow, low to moderate (15-20 kts) vertical wind 
shear, and warm sea surface temperatures (30-31 c). Maximum 
sustained surface winds are estimated at 10 to 15 knots. Minimum sea 
level pressure is estimated to be near 1010 mb. The potential for 
the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 
hours is low.
      (3) no other suspect areas.
2. South Pacific area (west coast of South America to 135 east):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
3. Justification for reissue: upgraded area in para 1.B.(1) to high. 
Added area in para 1.B.(2) as a low.//
Nnnn

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