Tropical Weather Discussion


abio10 pgtw 250330
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian Ocean
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/250151zapr2018//
ampn/ref a is a tropical cyclone final warning.//
1. North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
2. South Indian Ocean area (135e west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary:
      (1) at 250000z, tropical cyclone 20s (fakir) was located near
24.6s 59.1e, approximately 288 nm south-southeast of port Louis,
Mauritius, and had tracked southeastward at 12 knots over the past
six hours. Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 35
knots gusting to 45 knots. See ref a (wtxs31 pgtw 250300) for the
final warning on this system.
      (2) no other tropical cyclones.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 96s) previously located
near 9.0s 79.0e, is now located near 11.0s 83.5e, approximately 686
nm east-southeast of Diego Garcia. Animated enhanced infrared
satellite imagery shows that two small areas of moderate convection
remain present around the low level circulation center (LLCC)
associated with 96s. A 242158z 91ghz ssmis microwave image shows the
remaining convection is still located to the east of the LLCC. Upper
level analysis reveals moderate vertical wind shear ranging from 15
to 20 knots along with weak equatorward outflow and moderate
poleward outflow. Sea surface temperatures remain favorable between
28 and 29 degrees celsius. 96s will encounter unfavorable conditions
as it tracks southward. Numerical model guidance has considerably
backed off on tropical cyclone development over the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 15 to 20 knots.
Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1008 mb. The
potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone
within the next 24 hours remains low.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
3. Justification for reissue: updated with final warning for tc

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