Tropical Weather Discussion


abio10 pgtw 192130
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian Ocean
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/191951zjan2018//
ampn/ref a is a tropical cyclone warning.//
1. North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary: none.
2. South Indian Ocean area (135e west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary:
      (1) at 191800z, tropical cyclone 06s (berguitta) was located 
near 26.6s 51.2e, approximately 430 nm south-southwest of St Denis, 
and had tracked southwestward at 21 knots over the past six hours. 
Maximum sustained surface winds were estimated at 50 knots gusting 
to 65 knots. See ref a (wtxs31 pgtw 192100) for further details.
      (2) no other tropical cyclones.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) an area of convection (invest 99s) has persisted near 
15.4s 39.5e, approximately 480 nm west-northwest of Antananarivo, 
Madagascar. Animated enhanced infrared (eir) imagery and a 191926z 
89ghz gmi microwave image show deep flaring convection above an 
organized low level circulation center. Sea surface temperatures in 
the Mozambique Channel are warm (27-28 celsius) and will support 
development when 99s reaches open water. Global dynamic models 
maintain a circulation as 99s tracks back over water, but are split 
on the likelihood of 99s developing into a tropical cyclone. Models 
generally agree on the disturbance tracking to the southeast over 
Madagascar in the short term. Maximum sustained surface winds are 
estimated at 15 to 20 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated 
to be near 1007 mb. The potential for the development of a 
significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is low.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
3. Justification for reissue: added area in para 2.B.(1)//

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