Tropical Weather Discussion

000 
abio10 pgtw 140330
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/significant tropical weather advisory for the Indian Ocean
/reissued/140330z-141800zdec2018//
ref/a/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/140251zdec2018//
ref/b/msg/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi/132051zdec2018//
narr/refs a and b are tropical cyclone formation alerts.//
Rmks/
1. North Indian Ocean area (Malay Peninsula west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 94b) previously located
near 7.4n 88.4e, is now located near 7.6n 88.2e, approximately 490
nm east of Colombo, Sri Lanka. Animated multispectral satellite
imagery shows peristent deep convection obscuring the low level
circulation center (LLCC). An 132141z ssmis f-16 91ghz microwave
image shows deep convection over the LLCC with banding forming to
the north and west of the circulation. 94b is currently in a
favorable environment with high sea surface temperatures (28 to 30
celsius) and excellent poleward outflow, and is sitting in a small
pocket of low vertical wind shear (5 to 10 knots) with higher vws
values to the northwest. Global models agree on a northwest
trajectory with intensification over the next couple days. Maximum
sustained surface winds are estimated at 23 to 28 knots. Minimum sea
level pressure is estimated to be near 1001 mb. The potential for
the development of a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24
hours remains high. See ref a (wtio21 pgtw 140300) for further
details.
      (2) no other suspect areas.
2. South Indian Ocean area (135e west to coast of Africa):
   a. Tropical cyclone summary: none.
   B. Tropical disturbance summary:
      (1) the area of convection (invest 91s) previously located
near 7.6s 91.4e, is now located near 8.0s 90.7e, approximately 443
nm northwest of coco islands. Enhanced multispectral infrared
satellite imagery and a partial 131920z amsr2 89 ghz microwave image
show a consolidating low level circulation (llc) with fragmented,
formative banding and persistent deep convection. Upper level
analysis indicates moderate to high (20-30 knot) vertical wind shear
and very good poleward outflow. Sea surface temperatures (26-28
celsius) are favorable for development. A recent partial ascat pass
reveals a broad, symmetric circulation with stronger winds wrapping
into the llc from the northeast. Global models are in good agreement
that 91s will track southwestward and intensify over the next
several days. Maximum sustained surface winds are estimated at 23 to
28 knots. Minimum sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1003
mb. The potential for the development of a significant tropical
cyclone within the next 24 hours is upgraded to high. See ref b