- Day Three
acus02 kwns 180345
Storm Prediction Center ac 180344
Day 2 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1044 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017
Valid 191200z - 201200z
..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
thunderstorm probabilities will be greatest across the southern
rockies, along the Pacific northwest coast, and over parts of
Dry and stable conditions will exist across much of the contiguous
US Thursday though three distinct areas of the country will have
some threat for thunderstorms.
1) southern rockies region - several low-latitude disturbances will
traverse the international border over the next few days. These
features should encourage higher precipitable water air mass to spread across
northern Mexico into nm and the adjacent High Plains. As a result,
convection is expected to develop across this region as instability
increases ahead of short wave. Thunderstorms that form over nm will
spread toward the Texas South Plains during the evening aided by
nocturnal increase in low level jet across this region after dark.
2) Pacific northwest - profiles are expected to cool significantly along
the Pacific northwest coast as a strong trough moves inland around 20/03z.
Primary threat for lightning will be with Post-frontal convection
influenced by relatively more buoyant onshore flow.
3) Florida - upper trough will move off the Florida coast early in the period
and heights will rise slowly as ridge builds toward the state.
Large-scale surface pattern will change little over the next few
days with deep easterly flow expected to continue due to dominant
surface ridge anchored over the southern Appalachians. Showers will
focus along the East Coast and sufficient buoyancy should exist for
at least a threat for lightning with the strongest updrafts.