U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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Storm Prediction Center ac 180058 


Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0758 PM CDT sun Jun 17 2018 


Valid 180100z - 181200z 


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from portions of 
the Central Plains into the upper Great Lakes... 


... 
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms will continue this evening 
along a corridor from southwestern Nebraska into Wisconsin. Hail and 
wind are the primary threats. 


..Central Plains to upper Great Lakes... 


A narrow corridor of frontal convection has developed from 
southwestern NE into southeast South Dakota with a more extensive mesoscale convective system located 
downstream across WI into the eastern u.P. Of Michigan. The upper Great 
Lakes mesoscale convective system is expected to sag slowly southeast across central WI over 
the next several hours and isolated damaging winds and perhaps some 
hail may be noted with this activity, although heavy rain may become 
the dominant threat by mid evening. 


18/00z lbf sounding exhibits substantial cape with adequate shear 
for the maintenance of organized updrafts and perhaps even a few 
weak supercells. Hail will continue to be the greatest risk with 
this activity as it spreads/develops northeast along the frontal 
zone. Overall severe threat should gradually wane by late evening, 
although low level jet is expected to provide ascent for convection continuing 
through the overnight hours. 


.Darrow.. 06/18/2018 


$$ 

Mesoscale Discussion


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Mesoscale discussion 0776 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0814 PM CDT sun Jun 17 2018 


Areas affected...portions of west-central and northwest Wisconsin 


Concerning...Tornado Watch 183... 


Valid 180114z - 180315z 


The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 183 continues. 


Summary...severe risk continues to gradually diminish -- and ww 183 
will likely be allowed to expire as scheduled at 18/02z. 


Discussion...the latest radar loop shows a continued decrease in 
overall convective intensity/organization across the northern half 
of Wisconsin and vicinity, as the band of convection becomes 
oriented increasingly west-to-east -- aligned with the deep-layer 
wind field. With the boundary layer now gradually cooling, and 
evening soundings revealing relatively weak lapse rates/warm 
mid-level temperatures, indications are that overall/gradual 
decreases in storm intensity/organization will continue through the 
remainder of the evening. As such, it appears that ww 183 will not 
require extensions in time or area beyond 18/02z. 


.Goss.. 06/18/2018 


..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Attention...WFO...dlh...arx...mpx... 


Latitude...Lon 44699220 45099220 45949044 45459016 45219095 44629103 
44699220