- Day Three
acus03 kwns 280725
Storm Prediction Center ac 280724
Day 3 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 am CDT Tue Mar 28 2017
Valid 301200z - 311200z
..there is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of
west Tennessee...eastern Arkansas...and northern MS...
..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of
the Lower/Middle MS valley and Tennessee Valley...
..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of
the Lower/Middle MS valley...and into the Ohio/Tennessee valleys...
Severe thunderstorms are expected on Thursday from parts of the
middle and lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley.
..lower/mid MS valley into Tennessee Valley...
A strong upper trough will continue moving eastward across the
Southern Plains and into the mid/lower MS valley on Thursday.
Thunderstorms are expected to form during the afternoon along/ahead
of the cold front/dryline over Arkansas/la and track eastward into MS/TN.
Forecast soundings indicate the potential for strong cape ahead of
the front, along with favorable shear profiles for organized/severe
storms. Model solutions are quite consistent on the position of
main trough axis, but the details of shortwave timing/locations are
quite diverse. Nevertheless, a consensus of guidance provides
sufficient confidence to upgrade a portion of western TN, eastern
AR, and northern MS to an enh risk for Thursday.