U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

Day Three

acus03 kwns 160429 
Storm Prediction Center ac 160429 

Day 3 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
1129 PM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018 

Valid 181200z - 191200z 

..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 

a few showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts 
of Florida on Thursday. 

An upper ridge will remain centered over the Gulf of Mexico as an 
upper trough exits the northeast and a shortwave trough moves into 
the Central Plains. At the surface, cool and stable conditions will 
prevail over much of the Continental U.S. With high pressure centered over the 
mid Atlantic and over The Rockies. Easterly surface winds around the 
high will maintain a moist boundary layer across Florida and the Gulf of 
Mexico, with only weak instability across the Florida Peninsula. This 
may support a few showers and isolated thunderstorms during the 
afternoon, but severe weather is unlikely beneath the upper ridge. 

To the west, weak warm advection above the stable boundary layer 
will lead to increasing coverage of rain across Texas. Very weak 
elevated instability is possible, and a sporadic lightning strike 
cannot be ruled out. However, the threat of thunderstorms is too low 
for even a 10% general thunder delineation. 

.Jewell.. 10/16/2018