- Day Three
acus03 kwns 160429
Storm Prediction Center ac 160429
Day 3 convective outlook
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 PM CDT Mon Oct 15 2018
Valid 181200z - 191200z
..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast...
a few showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts
of Florida on Thursday.
An upper ridge will remain centered over the Gulf of Mexico as an
upper trough exits the northeast and a shortwave trough moves into
the Central Plains. At the surface, cool and stable conditions will
prevail over much of the Continental U.S. With high pressure centered over the
mid Atlantic and over The Rockies. Easterly surface winds around the
high will maintain a moist boundary layer across Florida and the Gulf of
Mexico, with only weak instability across the Florida Peninsula. This
may support a few showers and isolated thunderstorms during the
afternoon, but severe weather is unlikely beneath the upper ridge.
To the west, weak warm advection above the stable boundary layer
will lead to increasing coverage of rain across Texas. Very weak
elevated instability is possible, and a sporadic lightning strike
cannot be ruled out. However, the threat of thunderstorms is too low
for even a 10% general thunder delineation.