U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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Day Three

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acus03 kwns 280725 
swody3 
Storm Prediction Center ac 280724 


Day 3 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0224 am CDT Tue Mar 28 2017 


Valid 301200z - 311200z 


..there is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of 
west Tennessee...eastern Arkansas...and northern MS... 


..there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of 
the Lower/Middle MS valley and Tennessee Valley... 


..there is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across parts of 
the Lower/Middle MS valley...and into the Ohio/Tennessee valleys... 


... 
Severe thunderstorms are expected on Thursday from parts of the 
middle and lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. 


..lower/mid MS valley into Tennessee Valley... 
A strong upper trough will continue moving eastward across the 
Southern Plains and into the mid/lower MS valley on Thursday. 
Thunderstorms are expected to form during the afternoon along/ahead 
of the cold front/dryline over Arkansas/la and track eastward into MS/TN. 
Forecast soundings indicate the potential for strong cape ahead of 
the front, along with favorable shear profiles for organized/severe 
storms. Model solutions are quite consistent on the position of 
main trough axis, but the details of shortwave timing/locations are 
quite diverse. Nevertheless, a consensus of guidance provides 
sufficient confidence to upgrade a portion of western TN, eastern 
AR, and northern MS to an enh risk for Thursday. 


.Hart.. 03/28/2017 


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