U.S. Severe Weather Forecast (Convective Outlook)

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acus01 kwns 251229 
swody1 
Storm Prediction Center ac 251228 


Day 1 convective outlook 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0728 am CDT Mon Sep 25 2017 


Valid 251300z - 261200z 


..no severe thunderstorm areas forecast... 


... 
the risk for severe storms is negligible across the contiguous 
United States today. 


..eastern nm to the South Plains of Texas... 
Considered an upgrade to marginal risk for late afternoon/early 
evening, but overall severe probabilities appear minimal. 


A cold front arcing from southwest Kansas to the Raton Mesa should 
gradually shift south of the Texas Panhandle and across east-central nm 
by early evening. Weak upslope flow ahead of the boundary should aid 
in isolated to scattered storms forming over the higher terrain of 
nm late afternoon. Diabatic destabilization east of the higher 
terrain appears likely to remain subdued owing to ongoing scattered 
convection from southeast nm to southwest Kansas that should slowly 
moving east through much of the late morning/midday. If stronger 
destabilization can occur than expected, mid- and upper-level speed 
shear will remain adequate for updraft rotation in spite of heights 
dampening with the central rockies to Four Corners shortwave trough. 
This would conditionally support a marginally severe hail event. 


.Grams/Jewell.. 09/25/2017 


$$ 

Mesoscale Discussion


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acus11 kwns 250614 
sels mesoscale discussion 
Storm Prediction Center mesoscale discussion 250614 
txz000-okz000-nmz000-250845- 


Mesoscale discussion 1671 
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 
0114 am CDT Mon Sep 25 2017 


Areas affected...eastern New Mexico into parts of western Texas 


Concerning...severe potential...watch unlikely 


Valid 250614z - 250845z 


Probability of watch issuance...5 percent 


Summary...a few storms may produce marginally severe hail through 
the early morning hours. 


Discussion...a few strong storms have formed near and south of a 
cold front, near an instability axis and aided by a 30 kt southerly 
low-level jet. Height tendencies aloft will remain little changed in 
the near term, but sufficient low-level convergence and an uncapped 
moist air mass should maintain a threat of scattered storms into 
Monday morning. Hodographs are not particularly favorable for any 
long-lived storms, with relatively weak midlevel winds. But 
instability appears strong enough for a few strong cores capable of 
some hail. 


.Jewell/grams.. 09/25/2017 


..please see www.Spc.NOAA.Gov for graphic product... 


Attention...WFO...lub...Ama...maf...abq...epz... 


Latitude...Lon 33830509 36170420 36750342 36680276 36220219 34140238 
32630284 31900336 31700423 31800502 32410544 32790547 
33830509