What to Watch This Week: Bouts of Storms From the Plains to the East and Two Reasons to Watch the Tropics

Chris Dolce
Published: June 11, 2018

Typical of June, numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms will rumble from parts of the Plains to the East this week. On top of that, we have two reasons to watch the tropics the next several days.

Here's an overview of what to expect.

Bouts of Storms From Plains to East

Pockets of energy rippling between the jet stream across the nation's northern tier and high pressure in the South will stir up bouts of showers and thunderstorms from the Plains to the Midwest and East much of this week.

The exact location where storms are most active each day will vary, but the greatest coverage of storms will likely coincide with daytime heating. Damaging wind gusts, large hail and flash flooding will be the primary concerns from these storms each day.

As an example, separate clusters of storms produced flash flooding Sunday night into early Monday in Philadelphia and Springfield, Illinois.


Current Radar, Watches and Warnings

The greatest chance of scattered severe storms and heavy rainfall on Monday afternoon and evening will exist from the central Plains into the upper Midwest as well as a swath from the Ohio Valley to the Carolinas.


Monday's Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

On Tuesday, parts of southeastern Colorado, western Kansas and northwestern Oklahoma will have the greatest risk of organized severe storms.

As mentioned before, additional rounds of storms are likely throughout the week ahead. Click the link below to see what regions could be affected each day.

(MAPS: Forecast Next Seven Days)

Western Gulf of Mexico Moisture Surge?

An area of disturbed weather could migrate from out of the western Caribbean and into the western Gulf of Mexico in the week ahead.

This may allow a surge of tropical moisture and energy to move in the general direction of the western Gulf Coast by late in the week, particularly from northeastern Mexico to Texas and Louisiana. If the surge of moisture materializes, there would likely be an uptick in shower and thunderstorm chances by Friday or next weekend in this region.

An increase in rainfall would be welcome news for parts of the western Gulf Coast, where abnormally dry or drought conditions have developed, according to the latest Drought Monitor.

An area of disturbed weather may move into the western Gulf of Mexico late-week. This could lead to a surge of moisture (red and purple shadings) near the western Gulf Coast, enhancing showers and thunderstorms.

Since we are in the early part of the hurricane season, we always monitor tropical disturbances over the Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean for possible development.

Although the odds are currently low that this system will eventually develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm, we'll continue to watch it closely and provide updates in the week ahead.

The good news is that there is plenty of time to watch this situation.

(MORE: Here's Where Tropical Storms and Hurricanes Form in June)

Bud Could Help Send Moisture Into Desert Southwest

Hurricane Bud is forecast to move northwestward parallel to, but offshore from, the Pacific coast of Mexico into midweek.

(MORE: Latest on Bud)

By late in the week, Bud will be located somewhere near Mexico's Baja California, where it will encounter cooler waters and begin to weaken.

Bud will not affect the United States directly as a tropical storm, but the system could still help propel moisture northward into the Desert Southwest.


Moisture Surges Into Southwest?

Assuming this moisture surge does reach the Desert Southwest, showers and thunderstorms will develop in the region late in the week.

The magnitude of this moisture surge is still uncertain, and that will dictate how widespread any thunderstorms will be. If the stormy weather does materialize, we could see blowing dust, gusty winds and flash flooding in some areas.

(MORE: How Eastern Pacific Storms Impact the Desert Southwest)

Another impact from this potential moisture surge would be an increase in cloud cover, which will keep temperatures well below average for mid-June next weekend.


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