Tropical Cyclone Berguitta

Last Updated: 1516320000

Location:
-22.8N 305.8E
Movement:
SW at 11 mph
Wind:
65 mph
Pressure:
--

Storm Maps
Storm Details

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000 
wtxs31 pgtw 190300
msgid/genadmin/joint typhoon wrncen Pearl Harbor hi//
subj/tropical cyclone 06s (berguitta) warning nr 026//
rmks/
1. Tropical cyclone 06s (berguitta) warning nr 026    
   01 active tropical cyclone in southio
   Max sustained winds based on one-minute average
   wind radii valid over open water only
    ---
   warning position:
   190000z --- near 22.8s 54.2e
     movement past six hours - 225 degrees at 10 kts
     position accurate to within 040 nm
     position based on center located by satellite
   present wind distribution:
   Max sustained winds - 055 kt, gusts 070 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   radius of 050 kt winds - 055 nm northeast quadrant
                            070 nm southeast quadrant
                            065 nm southwest quadrant
                            040 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 034 kt winds - 130 nm northeast quadrant
                            250 nm southeast quadrant
                            235 nm southwest quadrant
                            100 nm northwest quadrant
   repeat posit: 22.8s 54.2e
    ---
   forecasts:
   12 hrs, valid at:
   191200z --- 24.7s 52.3e
   Max sustained winds - 055 kt, gusts 070 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   radius of 050 kt winds - 050 nm northeast quadrant
                            095 nm southeast quadrant
                            065 nm southwest quadrant
                            040 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 034 kt winds - 175 nm northeast quadrant
                            285 nm southeast quadrant
                            245 nm southwest quadrant
                            105 nm northwest quadrant
   vector to 24 hr posit: 210 deg/ 14 kts
    ---
   24 hrs, valid at:
   200000z --- 27.2s 50.8e
   Max sustained winds - 050 kt, gusts 065 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   radius of 050 kt winds - 065 nm northeast quadrant
                            090 nm southeast quadrant
                            055 nm southwest quadrant
                            040 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 034 kt winds - 190 nm northeast quadrant
                            265 nm southeast quadrant
                            220 nm southwest quadrant
                            115 nm northwest quadrant
   vector to 36 hr posit: 190 deg/ 15 kts
    ---
   36 hrs, valid at:
   201200z --- 30.1s 50.1e
   Max sustained winds - 050 kt, gusts 065 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   radius of 050 kt winds - 055 nm northeast quadrant
                            075 nm southeast quadrant
                            080 nm southwest quadrant
                            065 nm northwest quadrant
   radius of 034 kt winds - 215 nm northeast quadrant
                            265 nm southeast quadrant
                            215 nm southwest quadrant
                            145 nm northwest quadrant
   vector to 48 hr posit: 165 deg/ 08 kts
    ---
   extended outlook:
   48 hrs, valid at:
   210000z --- 31.6s 50.5e
   Max sustained winds - 045 kt, gusts 055 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   becoming extratropical
   radius of 034 kt winds - 190 nm northeast quadrant
                            275 nm southeast quadrant
                            220 nm southwest quadrant
                            170 nm northwest quadrant
   vector to 72 hr posit: 120 deg/ 09 kts
    ---
   72 hrs, valid at:
   220000z --- 33.4s 54.2e
   Max sustained winds - 045 kt, gusts 055 kt
   wind radii valid over open water only
   extratropical
   radius of 034 kt winds - 185 nm northeast quadrant
                            275 nm southeast quadrant
                            295 nm southwest quadrant
                            245 nm northwest quadrant
    ---
remarks:
190300z position near 23.3s 53.7e.
Tropical cyclone 06s (berguitta), located approximately 151 nm
south-southwest of St Denis, has tracked southwestward at 10
knots over the past six hours. Animated infrared satellite imagery 
shows convective banding wrapping into a central dense overcast 
layer covering the low-level circulation center (LLCC). The current 
position is based on pgtw and knes 190000z infrared satellite 
imagery fixes, and supported by a 182108z amsr2 36ghz microwave 
image. The intensity of 55 knots is consistent with pgtw and knes 
Dvorak current intensity estimates of t3.5. The system has weakened 
slightly over the past six hours, with the central convective mass 
decreasing in diameter. The track continues to turn poleward along 
the periphery of the steering ridge to the south and east, and is 
expected to continue to recurve around the ridge throughout the 
forecast period. An upper-level anticyclone over the LLCC, evident 
in satellite feature track wind data, is currently supporting a 
favorable vertical wind shear environment. However, shear is 
expected to increase throughout the forecast period as tc 06s tracks 
poleward. This increasing shear and decreasing along-track sea 
surface temperatures are expected to induce a gradual weakening 
trend in the near to medium-term. By tau 48, tc 06s will begin 
extratropical transition, and favorable interaction with the 
baroclinic zone will enable the system to maintain intensity around 
45 knots as it completes extratropical transition by tau 72. 
Numerical models remain in tight agreement, lending high confidence 
to the current track forecasts. Maximum significant wave height at 
190000z is 15 feet. Next warnings at 190900z, 191500z, 192100z and 
200300z.//
Nnnn

Learn more about Tropical Cyclone Berguitta and the 2018 South Indian Ocean hurricane season in our hurricane archive.

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Storm Track Statistics

Date Time Lat Lon Wind (mph) Pressure Storm Type
Jan 12 18 GMT -17 66.9 40 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 13 00 GMT -17.3 65.6 40 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 13 06 GMT -17.7 64.9 45 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 13 12 GMT -17.9 64.0 45 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 13 18 GMT -18.3 63.6 45 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 14 00 GMT -18.2 63.4 60 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 14 06 GMT -18.1 63.0 65 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 14 12 GMT -18.1 62.9 65 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 14 18 GMT -18 63.1 65 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 15 00 GMT -17.8 63.2 75 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 15 06 GMT -17.8 63.2 85 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 15 12 GMT -18 63.0 105 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 15 18 GMT -18.1 62.6 115 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 16 00 GMT -18.2 61.9 115 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 16 06 GMT -18 61.6 110 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 16 12 GMT -18.2 61.1 100 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 16 18 GMT -18.2 60.8 90 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 17 00 GMT -18.3 60.6 90 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 17 06 GMT -18.1 60.2 80 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 17 12 GMT -18.3 59.8 75 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 17 18 GMT -18.9 59.5 75 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 18 00 GMT -19.7 58.5 75 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 18 06 GMT -20.7 57.6 75 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 18 12 GMT -21.5 56.6 75 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 18 18 GMT -22.4 54.8 70 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 19 00 GMT -22.8 54.2 65 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 12 18 GMT -17 66.9 40 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 13 00 GMT -17.3 65.6 40 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 13 06 GMT -17.7 64.9 45 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 13 12 GMT -17.9 64.0 45 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 13 18 GMT -18.3 63.6 45 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 14 00 GMT -18.2 63.4 60 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 14 06 GMT -18.1 63.0 65 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 14 12 GMT -18.1 62.9 65 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 14 18 GMT -18 63.1 65 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 15 00 GMT -17.8 63.2 75 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 15 06 GMT -17.8 63.2 85 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 15 12 GMT -18 63.0 105 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 15 18 GMT -18.1 62.6 115 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 16 00 GMT -18.2 61.9 115 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 16 06 GMT -18 61.6 110 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 16 12 GMT -18.2 61.1 100 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 16 18 GMT -18.2 60.8 90 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 17 00 GMT -18.3 60.6 90 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 17 06 GMT -18.1 60.2 80 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 17 12 GMT -18.3 59.8 75 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 17 18 GMT -18.9 59.5 75 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 18 00 GMT -19.7 58.5 75 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 18 06 GMT -20.7 57.6 75 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 18 12 GMT -21.5 56.6 75 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 18 18 GMT -22.4 54.8 70 -- Tropical Cyclone
Jan 19 00 GMT -22.8 54.2 65 -- Tropical Cyclone

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Learn more about Tropical Cyclone Berguitta and the 2018 South Indian Ocean hurricane season in our hurricane archive.

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