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RIP Bill!

By: juslivn , 5:33 AM GMT on February 06, 2017

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Well, since the Superbowl is now is the books, I guess I can start a new blog, lol.

Lots of happenings here. 2 grands on the way (one any day now) and a wedding for our son. Couple of other weddings to attend AND still need to get down to see Mom in FL and Aunt, etc... This year will be non-stop.

Hoping all WU friends are doing well and still check in here and there. I truly miss the old days (and I wasn't even one of the founding members...I do miss ya'll though ;)

Weather has been very, very grey here. We've probably set records for no sunshine, lol. It's dismal. Very much looking forward to maybe just a little sunshine on our travels shortly.

Willow, our English Shepherd is doing well. Almost a year now. She's a handful. She's not real fond of strangers (true to the farm dog strain). Not real fond of new people and I have to be very, very firm with her to make sure I am the boss and not her.
Ok, that being said--She goes to doggie daycare while I'm at work and she is one of the best dogs there! They don't even know she is sooooo territorial here at the home! She's a doll there! Go figure. She is infinitely more challenging than the American Bulldogs I raised. Hardest dog I ever owned, but definitely the smartest and most interesting (primal, actually). More to come about Willow if I can really start dedicating a bit of time to blogging again.

We also have a new kitty who entered our lives this year! He's a hoot! Remy is a grey and white little short hair. He is very, very sweet and is about 8 mos. Must have been shipwrecked or in a dessert in another life...he is absolutely obsessed with water! Anything water!

Well, I'll keep ya posted on the storms due, and hopefully the good news soon! Wish us well with the flight to NV to Nellis and our dau and winds expected Weds...Ya'll know how much I HATE wind! grrrr.
Oh My Gosh! I forgot to tell you about my husband's accident! He's very lucky. He was coming home from the train, and he was T-boned in our little Elantra car by an F-250! It held up very, very well. He has been dealing with a few injuries, but is basically extremely lucky! It was totaled.
We had to buy a new car and opted to buy another vehicle which could get us through the next 10 years, towing boats, grands, etc...Sticker shock!!! Dodge Durango w/the hemi...fully loaded. We absolutely LOVE it! So far so good w/AWD but we haven't really been challenged with it yet this year with any snow, lol...

Ok, ramble scramble....I'll have to post another blog at this rate, because this one just got stupid long...
Stay well all ships at sea, or where ever you may be! Trains are going to bed here, and so should I!

Have a great Feb and let's try to get through the year of weather without any Tornado deaths! It's 2017! We're better than this...We got this! Let's get the word out a bit better, even if our voices are being a bit loud and annoying...maybe it will save some lives in this coming year :) It was so sad to see all the destruction early this year in the southern states. No more! Let's get everyone to pay attention!










IMG_0167.JPG (juslivn)
IMG_0167.JPG
IMG_0155.JPG (juslivn)
New Grandchild
IMG_0155.JPG

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53. juslivn
2:41 PM GMT on March 01, 2017
Thank you Sandi! And to you too! And to all.
Bad storm damage across Illinois and Mo etc...

Wgn rain totals huge as well:
Location/rainfall (inches)
Homer Glen .7NNE…3.55
South Holland…2.98
Plainfield 4SSW…2.93
Cresthill…2.80
Shorewood…2.77
Mokena…2.70
Homer Glen .8ENE…2.69
New Lenox…2.63
Homewood…2.61
Midlothian…2.60
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
52. sandiquiz
12:16 PM GMT on March 01, 2017


Happy Month :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
51. juslivn
5:02 AM GMT on March 01, 2017


Hmmmmm Derecho? maybe nort? Far North... Basically.
I'll save the tape and hope all can pronounce by now

Getting educated on whether this weather will hit us in the wee hours. I'll get back to ya hey!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
50. StormDrain
1:54 AM GMT on March 01, 2017
Sorry to see fatality report. Twitter is a good place to keep an eye on severe. You probably saw someone posted a radar loop at the main showing the storms start up and roll over Illinois. Hope severe is done in your area for this eve and tonight.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
49. juslivn
1:17 AM GMT on March 01, 2017
https://twitter.com/mywebtimes/status/8367416055456 27648
One confirmed fatality in Ottawa, IL tornado :(
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
48. juslivn
1:14 AM GMT on March 01, 2017
ReTweeted from WGN Mike Hammernick

Just In: 95mph gust clocked at 6:34PM with this circulation over Michigan City. Can't rule out a small tornado.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
47. juslivn
12:34 AM GMT on March 01, 2017
This line is cruisin in Central Illinois!

70 mph!

AT 626 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR RAMSEY, OR 12
MILES SOUTHEAST OF NOKOMIS, MOVING NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE
TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SHELBYVILLE, WINDSOR, COWDEN, TOWER HILL, STRASBURG, HERRICK,
CLARKSBURG, OCONEE, TROWBRIDGE, MODE, EAGLE CREEK STATE PARK AND
WOLF CREEK STATE PARK.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
46. juslivn
12:27 AM GMT on March 01, 2017
I saw that MCD. Thanks SD. As for the tornado, I believe it may have been a long tracker. There was damage in LaSalle.

We have had a lot of lightening. Heavy rains. But, so far, no hail at my house.

Kind of a lull right now, but we're under a Severe T-Storm warning.

Here's a link to a tweet I saw from Washburn, IL Wow!!!

Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
45. StormDrain
11:56 PM GMT on February 28, 2017
Me, too, three. Haven't been watching, but I see you're in the doghouse now with a MCD 220 covering far northern IL and I see SPC put you in tornado watch. The warnings on this map should update with a page refresh.


A PDS warning? Good Lord of Crapola! Is it gonna be a long-tracker?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
44. juslivn
11:07 PM GMT on February 28, 2017
Hope Wab is safe!


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
505 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2017

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN WOODFORD COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHEASTERN PEORIA COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
SOUTHWESTERN MARSHALL COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 530 PM CST

* AT 505 PM CST, A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO
WAS LOCATED OVER DUNLAP, OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF PEORIA, MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS, WINDOWS, AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
ROME AROUND 520 PM CST.
CHILLICOTHE AROUND 525 PM CST.
LACON AROUND 530 PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE
CAZENOVIA, HOPEWELL AND MARSHALL COUNTY AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! MOVE TO A BASEMENT OR AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS, IN A
MOBILE HOME, OR IN A VEHICLE, MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER
AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.
THEY WILL SEND YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
LINCOLN.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
43. juslivn
11:06 PM GMT on February 28, 2017
Great tips SD. I'm home. But I'm only going to post out of interest and not try to keep up. I have a feeling this is going to get very, very ugly!

First tornado warning is PDS!!! Southwest from me!


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN KENDALL COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...
EAST CENTRAL LA SALLE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHERN GRUNDY COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 530 PM CST

* AT 450 PM CST, A CONFIRMED LARGE AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED OVER OTTAWA, MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.


THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...YOU ARE IN A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. FLYING DEBRIS
MAY BE DEADLY TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT SHELTER. MOBILE
HOMES WILL BE DESTROYED. CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO HOMES,
BUSINESSES, AND VEHICLES IS LIKELY AND COMPLETE
DESTRUCTION IS POSSIBLE.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
MARSEILLES AROUND 455 PM CST.
SENECA AROUND 505 PM CST.
MORRIS AROUND 520 PM CST.
CHANNAHON AND MINOOKA AROUND 530 PM CST.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS TORNADIC THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE CARBON
HILL AND LISBON.

THIS INCLUDES... GEBHARD WOODS STATE PARK, GRUNDY COUNTY SPEEDWAY
AND FAIRGROUNDS, ILLINI STATE PARK, AND WILLIAM G STRATTON STATE
PARK.

INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATE...
I-80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 93 AND 121.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
42. StormDrain
8:54 PM GMT on February 28, 2017
Quoting 41. StormDrain:
...There's already a tor watch south in MO and AR.IL
...


Hope everyone stays safe today.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
41. StormDrain
8:28 PM GMT on February 28, 2017
Here's your MCD. There's already a tor watch south in MO and AR IL.


Mesoscale Discussion 0219
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0203 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Areas affected...Portions of northern IL...northern IN...southeast
IA...extreme northeast MO

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 282003Z - 282230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for increasing
severe-thunderstorm potential, including the risk for tornadoes,
severe hail (possibly significant), and damaging wind gusts. The
issuance of a Tornado Watch will likely be required during the next
few hours.

DISCUSSION...A northwest-southeast-oriented warm front extending
from surface low pressure in northeastern IA to southern IN will
continue to develop northeastward, as the leading edge of a
high-level speed maximum also spreads northeastward. Recent water
vapor imagery indicates a notable surge of midlevel drying advancing
through central IA, likely associated with an impulse embedded
within the flow aloft. As forcing for ascent associated with these
features continues to overspread the northeastward-developing warm
sector (where modest pressure falls are observed), convection should
increase in coverage/intensity during the next several hours.
Already, isolated elevated convection has been intensifying
northeast of the warm front in east-central IL, with additional
convection increasing in the open warm sector across south-central
IA.

Despite the return of only modest boundary-layer moisture (surface
dewpoints in the middle 50s to around 60F), steep midlevel lapse
rates associated with a well-established elevated mixed layer
overlying the area will support sufficient buoyancy for intense
updrafts. With 40-60 kt of effective shear, rotating updrafts will
likely be capable of producing severe hail -- possibly significant.
Damaging wind gusts and tornado potential will exist, especially
near and south/southwest of the warm front, where effective inflow
layers will extend to the surface. Significant tornadoes could even
occur owing to ample streamwise vorticity in the boundary layer
(effective SRH around 200-400 m2/s2), and especially in proximity to
the warm front given pre-existing vertical vorticity.

There is some uncertainty regarding the timing of the more robust
increase of surface-based convective risk. Regardless, the risk for
all severe hazards will be increasing, likely warranting Tornado
Watch issuance during the next few hours.

..Cohen/Hart.. 02/28/2017
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
40. StormDrain
8:21 PM GMT on February 28, 2017
Oh, jus. Your disco speaking of chasers reminded me to share this: I went to a storm spotting class last week, to refresh as I hadn't been to one for seven years. Large class. The room was full. Probably 50-60 people. Lot of emergency management, fire and law enforcement. Anyway, the teacher was a long-time NWS Norman met who's been chasing and forecasting since the time the Twister film came out. He told anecdotes from his own chasing experiences, and he so well explained supercell structure related to ground level I had to go up him afterwards and thank him.

Two great takeaways regarding safety when spotting:
Don't drive south through large hail.

Don't use tunnel-vision. See the big picture. For example, don't focus so much on the tornado you see that you forget to look in other directions and miss spotting the tornado behind you.

Tornado graphic below is a link to today's 2 PM outlook.


Take care.
:)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
39. StormDrain
7:59 PM GMT on February 28, 2017
Quoting 31. HadesGodWyvern:

the new forum will likely be better when we get Drupal.
We'll see what WU does. Would be good to be able to opt-in what you want to read and control who can see your posts/comments. WU would be better like that. With a third-party software, which I think Drupal is, if I were on staff in SF, I'd be worrying about my livelihood.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
38. ricderr
7:59 PM GMT on February 28, 2017
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
37. azgrandma
7:58 PM GMT on February 28, 2017
So happy to see new baby news and future baby news!! Please stay around & see what happens with the "new" blogs.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
36. StormDrain
7:57 PM GMT on February 28, 2017

Twister and Twister

Twister poster... RIP, Mr. Bill. Sorry about the reflection from overhead light. Even with no flash, the photo always has a reflection. Been trying for several years to photograph that poster without reflections.

Twister, the kitty, got spayed on Friday and did fine. Pity. She and Remy would have had nice babies. :) Newly licensed vet kind of gave me pause, but she did well - Twister and the veterinarian. Vet was a veterinary assistant for a while before going to Oklahoma State for DVM.

Wonder if Sadie maybe chewed a plant that affected her nervous system? Congratulations to Willow, the birthday girl, from Hummer. :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
35. juslivn
3:33 PM GMT on February 28, 2017
Disco, with a warning at the end for chasers to be extra vigilant. Hmmmm, never saw any note like that before.


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, Illinois
619 am CST Tue Feb 28 2017

Short term...
333 am CST

Through tonight...

An active and possibly dangerous evening/night of thunderstorms
will finish what has already been an atypical February of weather.
The season's first widespread severe chances will overspread the
County Warning Area later this afternoon and through the night. A lot has to come
together for severe storms and even more so for significant
severe weather this early in the season and after dark, but there
are a majority of the ingredients that will be in place over our
area...including 1.) A deep low just to our west that will be
strengthening, 2.) Very strong upper and mid-level winds, and 3.)
Rapidly increasing moisture/instability to near the top of
climatological values just ahead of the storms. Whether they can
come together just right though, and over a several hour period
and across much of the area as some guidance shows, still has some
noteworthy uncertainties.

Through early-mid afternoon...an arc of warm advection induced
showers and some thunderstorms are likely to progress east during
the mid-morning hours. While small hail certainly is possible,
larger hail potential should remain low with these as the leading
edge of the elevated mixed layer eml with deeper instability will
likely not push in until early afternoon. Scattered elevated
storms, if they can develop during the early and mid-afternoon
will have an increasingly more favorable air mass for large hail
with strengthening deep layer shear and growing -10c to -30c cape
(only at 16000 ft to 23000 ft agl).

Later this afternoon...the western upper trough will shift east
on a powerful 150 kt upper jet this afternoon and evening. It is
this upper jet, along with mid-level winds of 80+ kt at 500mb
winds and 60+ kt at 700mb, that will nose into northern Illinois
late afternoon into this evening and serve as an impetus for
increasing convective coverage. The northwest half of the County Warning Area
seems favored for the highest coverage late this afternoon in
what would likely be elevated strong to possibly severe storms
with a large hail threat. However, a more Theta-E rich low-level
air mass to the south and east could support any scattered severe
storms there becoming rooted lower late this afternoon, and
several cam solutions do indicate what appear to be isolated
supercell structures along/south of I-80 after 4 PM. Rap and NAM
soundings still indicate that these storms would likely be
slightly elevated late this afternoon. Nonetheless, the potential
for large hail will certainly be there.

Tonight...the severe threat increases sharply after dark. At the
surface, a somewhat elongated yet still deep 998 mb low is
expected along the Iowa/MO border at 6 PM and this will move to near
or just north of Chicago by midnight. Guidance is in fairly good
agreement with this and feel comfortable with the high-resolution
models at this close proximity and little in the way of upstream
convection to impact mass fields much. This low track will
continue low-level warm and moist advection after dark on 15-25
mph winds with higher given forecast NAM soundings, and a very
strong 65 kt low-level jet above this. These low-level winds are
key as they will continue to destabilize the low-level air mass
despite after dark, and is almost always a needed ingredient for
nocturnal wind and tornado severe weather potential in our area if
convective Mode is ideal, and that's an uncertainty.

Storms should increase in coverage during the early-mid evening
over the County Warning Area immediately upstream in the Illinois/IA/MO border region
right ahead of the surface low/convergence and the aforementioned
upper ascent. Cams indicate little in the way of convection
further south (southern MO/southern il) through early evening,
which should allow uninhibited dew points around 60 degrees to
advect into the southern County Warning Area and keep the area's storms more
dominant. The Mode is a bit of a challenge to forecast as there
are certainly Stout shear and crossover parameters for rotating
updrafts and supercells, and believe there will be some in the
region, possibly embedded in multi-cell or quasi-linear
structures, especially by late evening into overnight. Whether or
not there are discrete structures present when the true effective
warm front moves into the region this evening is uncertain, but if
so, they would be likely to have a tornado threat. Where this
potential is highest is highlighted well by the Storm Prediction Center enhanced risk,
though the most rich low-level instability could reach further
north. It it stressed though that even in a quasi-linear structure
with a wind threat, which is presently favored in our south later
tonight, a tornado threat would continue given extremely strong
0-1 km shear of 45 kt and helicity in excess of 250 m2/s2. The
storms should shift southeast of the area just before daybreak
Tuesday.

Hazards/timing...while the entire area has a risk for large hail
throughout this afternoon and tonight, the area most favored for
surface-based/low-level rooted storms is south of I-88 and
primarily after 6 p.M. And through 3 a.M. The northward extent
could be modulated some by convection this afternoon, and again
the Mode of storms moving into the County Warning Area this evening, but feel
comfortable with that area given the consensus in surface low and
wind field parameters. Cam ensembles also add support to this
area, especially along/south of I-80, and this is the area that
has better parameter space for a significant tornado or two if
again ingredients come together with the proper Mode. Spc's
outlook captures this well with their hatched tornado risk.

Message...with this event being the first probable severe weather
event of the season in the region, and coming so early prior to
preparedness week, it is encouraged to freshen up on your severe
weather plans today. Uncertainty exists in the dominant Mode of
storms this evening, but the highest threat or wind/tornadoes
certainly looks to be after dark, which brings challenges for
awareness and should be stressed. Finally, with individual storm
motions forecast to be around 65 mph, and the timing of after
dark, presents challenges/dangers to storm spotters, and
vigilance and safety is stressed.

Mtf
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
34. juslivn
5:09 AM GMT on February 28, 2017
Sadie, the yewts dog is doing ok but the ER vet could not pinpoint why she is ill (had a seizure). They are taking her home because her vitals were all ok.
The ER vet doesn't know what is wrong with her.
I'll keep in touch w/the CO yewts. I hope Boomer is ok too <3
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
33. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4:57 AM GMT on February 28, 2017
I'm sort of in the dark green/yellow line for tomorrow. local meteorologists suggest possible damaging winds and hail with this system.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
32. juslivn
4:53 AM GMT on February 28, 2017


Illinois in the crosshairs :( South of me, but not liking this setup.


SPC AC 271755

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 AM CST Mon Feb 27 2017

Valid 281200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND ADJACENT WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF MISSOURI...EXTREME WESTERN KENTUCKY
INTO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND A SMALL PART OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
ENHANCED RISK FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO
NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday and Tuesday night
from eastern portions of Oklahoma and Texas northeastward into parts
of the lower and middle Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley.

...Synopsis...
Model guidance remains in good agreement in showing a larger-scale
positively tilted mid-level trough moving from the Great
Basin/southern CA region eastward to the Great Plains by late
Tuesday night. As this trough move into the Plains states, it is
expected to take on a more neutral orientation, resulting in
strengthening deep-layer wind fields. A very strong 500-mb speed
max over northwest Mexico will move downstream and strengthen from
the southern Plains to the mid-MS and lower OH Valleys, likely
exceeding 100+ kt by Tuesday evening. Subsequent strengthening of a
broad southwesterly low-level jet will allow moisture to spread
poleward across the warm sector, with a large area of precipitable
water values exceeding 1-1.25 inches spreading across much of the
eastern half of the United States this forecast period.

At the surface, an area of low pressure should track from the
vicinity of the NE/IA border to the IL/WI border by 01/00Z, and then
across Lower MI to southwest Ontario. A trailing cold front will
advance east from the central Plains into the middle MS and lower OH
Valleys, while a second deepening area of low pressure tracks along
this boundary from OK Tuesday afternoon to central IL and Lower MI
Tuesday night. Concurrently, a warm front will advance northward
through the OH and upper TN Valleys.

...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Tuesday morning and afternoon...
Despite the lack of height falls during the first half of the
forecast period, forcing for ascent attendant to a weak transient
midlevel impulse tracking across this region and low-level warm air
advection suggests an ongoing cluster and/or new thunderstorm
development will spread from west to east. The eastern extent of a
plume of steep midlevel lapse rates spreading east atop low-level
moistening should prove favorable for mainly elevated storms with
hail being the primary threat. However, forecast soundings suggest
some potential for a few surface-based storms, especially by Tuesday
afternoon across parts of northern AL through middle TN and eastern
KY. Vertically veering winds suggest a tornado and locally strong
wind gusts cannot be ruled out with these afternoon storms.

..ArkLaTex/eastern OK northeastward into the mid MS and OH Valleys
Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night...

Consensus of deterministic and convective allowing models suggest
there will be the potential for several zones of storm development
late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening across the full
extent of the severe risk areas from along the cold front with
northward extent to along low-level confluence zones farther south.
Given the 12Z ESRL HRRR and 12Z NAM 4km suggesting a broken band of
discrete storms developing from east-central MO into central and
northeast IL, the enhanced severe risk area has been expanded north
across to now include more of eastern MO and into central IL, with a
northward expansion of the slight and marginal risks as well.
Moderate instability and strengthening deep-layer and low-level
shear will favor all severe hazards, with some indication for a
strong tornado threat from parts of AR to southern IL along a
strengthening low-level jet enhancing hodograph curvature. The
potential exists for storms to evolve into a QLCS Tuesday evening
from Missouri into the lower OH Valley, with damaging winds and
meso-vorticity tornadoes being the primary threats.

Farther north, a marginal risk for severe storms may develop and
affect parts of east-central IA and southeast WI Tuesday afternoon
and evening, with the marginal risk expanded north to now include
these areas.

..Peters.. 02/27/2017
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
31. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4:41 AM GMT on February 28, 2017
the new forum will likely be better when we get Drupal.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
30. juslivn
4:18 AM GMT on February 28, 2017
I am TOTALLY not here.
But, anyhooo. Thank you SD. She's a peach!
I am very saddened one of our favorite posters, I mean, posters. I mean your poster of Twister and Bill will be forever cherished even more. And, I mean that sincerely.

Anyway, here's the cliff notes:
Don't die or let others die in the upcoming southern states outbreak. As a matter of fact, please start being freaks about warning people all over the country when we know wtf we're looking at. We have the means to alert peeps much better than in any time in history!!! Use it or lose it! kk go SPC teaM!
Oh, I digress.
Baby is fantastic. Grew a whole 7 ozs! Did ya see the hair??? Yeah. She's good!

I lamented that I really wanted to go to be with the baby and never go back to work.
Also, I justified that with the fact they will all be here for the wedding in August. So, the baby will be 6 mos. And that is about as good as it can get! I'm dealing with that.

WG is going for a quick trip to see the new baby and help her sister. Very cool. The MIL was there helping until last Weds. Then, dau and sil were able to really be welcomed to new parenthood :) So, WG, I expect, will never leave Vegas after this. I'm doing a strip card.

Yewts in CO are due in July. Yes, this is the couple.
However, as I write, they just FT me and there was something wrong with their other dog (not Boomer) they are rushing to the emergency vet with her now. They just got back from Belize like Friday and friends were taking care of Sadie and Boomer in the really beautiful foot of the mountain home in Summit County home commune house they all inhabit. Anyway, they just got back from Belize and who knows what is going on there.

Willow, the English Shepherd turns One!!! (Wow it has been one LONG year!!! I feel like I've had her forever!) Well, she turns One Feb. 28th1/2 She's a leap year puppy!!! So, we have made the executive decision to celebrate on Wednesday ( which day is that?) Oh...Wednesday. We have to make up 27 treat bags for her fwiends at daycare. She goes to daycare a few times a week to blow off energy. It's really very good for her, and we just love it! So...they bring treats to pass, literally, and throw strange dog birthday parties, christmas parties, pool parties in the summer, and like tomorrow is Mardi Gras party. It's very cute.

Ok waiting to hear about yewts dog. Sheesh. Oh, Remy the new kitty got fixed today and everything went well. I realize my page is a bit off...But dammit I paid for this! ;) :/// (This will....self destruct) :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
29. StormDrain
3:35 AM GMT on February 28, 2017
Wait... Wait.. Please don't go yet. I have to say, "Congrannnylations!" Beautiful little girl. Congratulations to S and hubby, and to your hubby also .And to the aunties and uncles. ;)

I'd swear I left a congratulatory note here several days ago. Maybe mine went the way of too many comments, as yours did. I'm kind of hanging in here, jus, waiting to see what happens with the new blog system "they" have announced but not yet implemented.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
28. juslivn
2:24 AM GMT on February 28, 2017
P.S. I want my money back from contributing as a member. My post was important to me. You just can't have a site where people pay to use it and not post (poof) what we have painstakingly written.
Why haven't I learned this stupid lesson???


Total WU BS.

I'm sorry. Goodbye.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
27. juslivn
2:20 AM GMT on February 28, 2017
Seriously??? I wrote a loooong post back to you Mass, and Ylee. Complete with discussion of the upcoming weather.

Just ridiculous. I can't stand WU anymore. It is just hit or miss what will post and what won't. And, once you make the effort, things disappear. If you wanted it that way WU...you got it.
Done.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
26. masshysteria
8:32 PM GMT on February 26, 2017
Quoting 24. juslivn:

Very sad news about Bill Paxton. He was a very goodc actor and I liked him in many of his roles.

In other news, models showing real trouble for tornado outbreak this week. Please spread the news early so there are no deaths! :(

Baby is good. All's well here! Stay safe all ships!


Hi Jus! ~ I, too, caught sight of that tragic news regarding the sudden death Bill Paxton earlier this am. He was such a terrific actor and came across as a genuinely great fella. I'll never forget his wonderful performance in "Twister" with favorite female actress, Helen Hunt. The past couple of years have seemed to have taken way too many great celebrities, much too soon and within such a short period of time. Hope this horrible trend will abate in the year ahead.

Last night, we had a cold front push through bringing accompanying strong winds and torrential side-swept rains. Glad it didn't last too long or create a power outage. It was so nice to experience upper 60ish temps for three days straight, but unfortunately the reality of winter's February came back to haunt us as of today. Hope we get a few more pleasantly warm surprises before spring actually returns in three weeks. It will also be nice to return to Daylight Savings Time in two weeks time. Longer daylight hours always help to brighten one's mood at this time of year.

Hope you're not in the region of potential tornadic activity and glad to hear your adorable grandchild and family are doing well. Hope you'll continue to keep us apprised!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
25. Ylee
4:38 PM GMT on February 26, 2017
Bill? Oh, I see. Not a movie guy here.

Hope you didn't have anything hurt by the cold!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
24. juslivn
4:37 PM GMT on February 26, 2017
Very sad news about Bill Paxton. He was a very goodc actor and I liked him in many of his roles.

In other news, models showing real trouble for tornado outbreak this week. Please spread the news early so there are no deaths! :(

Baby is good. All's well here! Stay safe all ships!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
23. juslivn
6:51 AM GMT on February 24, 2017
Hail... bout a dime size so far!
Pretty solid lil below threshold T-storm here for Feb :/ hmmmm
QPF had me do a double take. We're close to that high prediction. hmmmm just in time for spring market. This will be fun.
Very happy I had my gutters cleaned during the warm spell.
May have to watch my sump and basement though.

Heading to the discussion. Need to see our rain fall rates. Hail continues. Lots of lightening. Night all ships! Baby's good :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
22. juslivn
3:07 AM GMT on February 21, 2017
Looks like we may make up for any drought. 1.9" potentially in the qpf. hmmmm.

Baby is doing well. But, I am really feeling constrained not being able to be there :( Dau (WG) may go asap. I'll hold down the fort. Other MIL is leaving in a couple of days. Jelly...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
21. whitewabit
5:48 PM GMT on February 19, 2017
Quoting 19. juslivn:

17. Wab, this is nuts! Soooo beautiful today. Can't make sense of these temps!


forecast has us in the 50's all next week .. keep looking for storms to build .. but nothing so far .. we need some moisture down here we are way behind for the winter .. we will be in drought status before too long ..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
20. Ylee
3:17 PM GMT on February 19, 2017
I see a happy grandma! :' ) Glad the baby is doing well!

Planning for spring planting? At this point I say forgetaboutit! No telling what's going to happen at this point!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
19. juslivn
4:49 AM GMT on February 19, 2017
17. Wab, this is nuts! Soooo beautiful today. Can't make sense of these temps!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
18. juslivn
4:47 AM GMT on February 19, 2017
Wab, makes me nervous for severe. But, what else is new, lol.

Baby is doing well. I had to come home wayyyy too soon and it took everything to get me on that plane.
She lost a little weight, and cried the first two days home non stop. They have figured it out and discovered the boba wrap?? Keeps her close and my dau can move around. Saving grace! So, they also decided to do bottle feeding, and nursing. It seems to have helped her gain the weight back. But, I do feel she was just adjusting to her new world ;) Self regulation is pretty tough ;) lol

Anyhoooo I will try to post the new photos. We're all tickled.

As for the weather!~ Well, I'm going to plant bulbs I never got into the ground and I do hope it gets cold for just a little spell! I was not able to look today, but I'm certain the crocus thought the coast was clear :) If they didn't come out today, they surely will tomorrow with all the golfers in their shorts!!! Courses are full in Feb in Chicagoland! I do recall one other Winter since I've had the blog we had this type of weather...I'm hoping it was NOT 2011!

Ok night all ships! I'll try to get pics up tomorrow. ttfn
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
17. whitewabit
7:34 PM GMT on February 17, 2017
68 degrees here at noon .. will we pay for all this warmth when Old Man Winter returns ??
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16. sandiquiz
7:59 AM GMT on February 15, 2017
Many congratulations to you all.

I have a great friend whose birthday is the 13th. She is called Lucy May! lol
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
15. Ylee
2:14 AM GMT on February 15, 2017
Congratulations! I've had kinfolk named Lottie, but I don'y know if that's short for something or not.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
14. masshysteria
7:53 PM GMT on February 14, 2017
Quoting 11. juslivn:

6lbs 10oz little girl! Pre-valentines at 11.45 pm last night!
:). Mom and baby are very well!

Name spelling is under discussion: Lottisha Mae, but it is after my mom & actually has roots on both sides of the family. Bbl w pic!


Hi Jus! ~ Wow, what a great Valentines Day present to you and, especially, yours!
Big congrats to the parents and hugs to you and your new granddaughter. You don't
seem anywhere old enough to be called grandma. What gives? LOL! Would the correct spelling
of your granddaughter's name be Leiticia Mae? I've heard of women with that particular surname
and spelling.

Whatever snow deficits you and Wab have experienced this season, I think we just made up
for it these past few days. I believe we've received 18 plus inches of snow that is now quickly
melting as the sun shines upon us. Hopefully, tomorrow night's rain/snowstorm will mostly
elude us and we can look ahead to warmer temps and better weather by the weekend. Can't
stand the sight of white after that horrific winter season of ours in 2014/2015. That year, over
9 feet of snow was dumped within a 9 week period. Hope we never relive that epic year again!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
13. whitewabit
7:33 PM GMT on February 14, 2017
congrats !!!!

We are about 10 inches behind in snow down my way .. and with all of these warm temps the ground moisture is leaving .. saying records could fall Friday when forecast has our high at 62 .. and that's the record I think .. our low temps are higher then what our highs should be ..

farmers getting a bit worried .. need the moisture for germination ..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
12. azgrandma
7:28 PM GMT on February 14, 2017
Congratulations, Grandma!!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
11. juslivn
3:05 PM GMT on February 14, 2017
6lbs 10oz little girl! Pre-valentines at 11.45 pm last night!
:). Mom and baby are very well!

Name spelling is under discussion: Lottisha Mae, but it is after my mom & actually has roots on both sides of the family. Bbl w pic!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
10. Ylee
4:18 AM GMT on February 14, 2017
Tell her gook luck from all of us, jus!

Did they pick out a name yet? If they haven't make sure she knows Donald and Ivanka are not in fashion at this time..... :' )
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
9. juslivn
3:33 AM GMT on February 14, 2017
Hi ylee, yes he is :)

In the waiting room. Dau is doing well.... should be any hour now :)
I'll try to post news.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
8. Ylee
5:29 AM GMT on February 13, 2017
Is Izzy still writing discussions for the NWS there?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
7. juslivn
5:56 AM GMT on February 07, 2017
Wow, an MCD for IL.
Up late because our fridge is dying (rather quickly--click, click, click...) and I am researching for an immediate purchase in the morning. Of course it has to be like 50 degrees here, or I could just put the freezer stuff outside...grrrr. Go figure it is this warm for Feb in Chicagoland :/

Well at least the new car fits in the garage with potential for hail. Not good.
Night all ships! Noaa radios on.



SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing from parts of the middle MS
Valley to the lower/middle OH Valley through the late evening/early
overnight hours may produce small hail. A few instances of
marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out. Watch issuance is not
anticipated.

DISCUSSION...VAD wind profiles across the region are suggesting a
broad strengthening of low-level southwesterly flow from the middle
MS Valley to the lower OH Valley, downstream of weakly phased
midlevel perturbations over the Central States. Related mass
convergence within the exit region of a consolidating low-level jet,
coupled with isentropic ascent along the jet, should promote an
increase in the coverage/intensity of elevated convection through
the overnight hours. Isolated thunderstorm activity has already been
increasing across portions of the region, and further increase is
expected during the next few hours.

While inflow layers are forecast to remain rooted above a
modifying/moistening cool dome at the surface, 00Z soundings across
the Central U.S. indicate that an elevated mixed layer will continue
to be advected into the region, before increasingly widespread
convection overturns related elevated buoyancy. Generally small hail
may accompany the more robust updrafts, given modest effective shear
(generally 25-35 kt). The presence of 700-500-mb lapse rates around
6.5-7.5 C/km may support a few instances of marginally several hail
with the more discrete cells. The lack of stronger effective shear,
and lack of stronger elevated buoyancy, will tend to limit the
severe risk. Also, as interacting convective elements tend to grow
upscale into small clusters, the severe-hail risk may tend to
lessen.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
6. Ylee
1:20 AM GMT on February 07, 2017
Wordpress cam blog is strictly in the experimental phase right now; can't get the webcam images to auto update when you refresh the page there, anyhow, and that will be a deal breaker.

My WU cam blog is still here and kicking, though! :' )
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
5. juslivn
7:23 PM GMT on February 06, 2017
Hi, Thanks for the tip Mass! Good to see you! As a matter of fact, I am involved in a huge project to get all photos organized, family, and my own! So, I may have to step up and get those at WU transferred sooner than later!
I hope there will be another place for us all.
Hoping you are doing well this winter and weathering it nicely. I really thought the groundhog did NOT have a shadow, and it supposed to be like 48 degrees here today! Whooo hooooo! Hope it goes your way, as well! Take care Mass!

Hi Sandi :) Nice to be back and pop in for a few... Yes, hubby is in physical therapy for his knee which hit the steering wheel very, very hard. And, he has a problem with his eye. I am extremely concerned about the eye, but he really just is not a complainer and rolls with the punches. I think he may just avoid thinking things are wrong (to a fault?) But, he's just such a positive person. Anyhooooo....I'll pop by and see what's happening across the pond :) Take care!

Hi Ylee! (And SD ;) The new Durango is the white one with the black grill, black rims, etc...We really wanted a grey one, but the one they had didn't have the bench seating in the rear seat and the technology package. This white one had everything we wanted. Really awesome high tech!!! I just love it. We didn't get the entertainment package though. So, no CD player, lol. But it has the back up camera and we can use that to see the boat when we are towing etc...in case a rope breaks free or whatever. LOVE it!

As for the WU, I was trying in and out in the past and landed in Russian Territories, etc...very very bizarre. Hope they get things straightened out or give us all an alternative. It would be a shame to kill a good thing. I saw you moved your blog? Or are using a WP blog somehow? I'll pop over and see the evolution of all that a bit more.

Take care! Hope you all don't go severe in the warm sectors! Noaa radios on!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
4. masshysteria
4:08 PM GMT on February 06, 2017
Hi Jus ~ Glad you're doing reasonably well and there's a lot of positive activity going on behind the scenes. As Ylee mentioned below, there's been a spate of problems occurring with WU and you may want to download any non-duplicate photos you've uploaded onto its PHOTO SECTION before the end of June. I guess WU's ELIMINATING WUNDERPHOTOS as of then and, as of Feb. 28th, one will no longer be able to upload any more new photos. Naturally, we al hope this doesn't prohibit us from posting an occasional pic, graphic or Youtube video onto WU once it changes software servers to Drupal come the end of June. It wouldn't be worth keeping a blog if all that was allowed was text alone. Hopefully, there'll be something worthwhile for I'd hate to lose contact with all my great longtime WU friends. Perhaps, we can exchange regular email addresses through WU mail beforehand? Just a thought ...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
3. sandiquiz
12:10 PM GMT on February 06, 2017
Hello!

What a lot of news... great about the weddings and the new births, but not good about the accident. I am glad hubby was basically OK.

Sounds as though you are extremely busy what will one thing and another - and your new menagerie!

Take care :)
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About juslivn

Located by the Fox River and Chain of Lakes in Northern Il. We boat, fish, love the outdoors, pets, and enjoy life.

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