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Puerto Rico / U.S Virgin Islands daily weather

By: Tropicsweatherpr , 10:25 AM GMT on October 15, 2016


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
549 AM AST Sat Oct 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Mid to upper level ridge will build and remain in
place across the region today through the weekend. Ridge is then
forecast to erode by early next week as a broad trough will move
across the Western Atlantic. Surface high pressure ridge will build
across the west and central Atlantic to maintain light to
moderate easterly trade winds through the weekend. Recent
satellite imagery suggests a weak easterly perturbation and patch
of low level moisture now moving across the Northeast Caribbean
with a slot of drier air quickly approaching the Lesser Antilles.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Some light passing showers were observed across the
Atlantic coastal waters overnight. Some of these showers brushed
the northern coast of Puerto Rico. A slot of drier air east of the
local islands...will move across the region later today.
Therefore...limited shower activity is expected through much of
the day. However...daytime heating and local effects will combined
with available moisture to produced scattered showers with
isolated thunderstorms over the western interior and southwestern
sections of Puerto Rico.

Moisture will increase by mid week as broad trough moves across
the Western Atlantic. This trough will induce a moist southerly
flow across the region which will result in better chances for
showers and thunderstorms beginning on Tuesday and continuing
until at least Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected this morning across the
local Flying area with only VCSH expected en route between the
Leeward Islands and USVI. After 15/16z, SHRA/TSRA development
expected over western and Interior PR. As a result, mountain
obscurations as well as brief periods of MVFR conditions are
possible at TJBQ/TJMZ with VCSH at TJSJ. Expect easterly winds at 10
to 15 knots with sea some sea breeze variations aft 15/13z.

&&

.MARINE...Seas up to 5 feet and winds up to 15 knots are expected.
Moderate risk of rip current is expected along the north facing
beaches of Puerto Rico today.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 88 77 / 20 30 30 30
STT 89 78 88 77 / 30 30 30 30


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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134. Tropicsweatherpr
10:20 AM GMT on March 01, 2017
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
427 AM AST Wed Mar 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Broad upper trough north and east of the region will become
amplified and sink south across the northeast Caribbean through Thursday.
The local islands should however remain the subsident side of the trough.
The trough will then fill and lift northward on Friday into the weekend.
Mid level ridge will continue to hold and build across the northeast
Caribbean into the upcoming weekend. Strong surface high pressure
will continue to build and spread eastward into the central Atlantic
and north of the region through Friday. This will maintain a tight
local pressure gradient and moderate to strong easterly trade
winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The strong easterly trades will transport fragment
of shallow low level moisture across the region through at least
Thursday. This will allow for occasional periods of passing
showers with brief gusty winds especially during the late evening
and overnight hours. During the day shower activity should
diminish across the north and eastern sections of the islands
leaving partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies and fresh easterly
trade winds. Afternoon showers should be then focused more over
part of the central and west sections of Puerto Rico, and on the
lee side of the rest of the islands. The shower activity should be
in the form of streamer like convection, therefore no significant
rainfall accumulations are expected the shower activity should be
fast moving and of short duration.

By Friday and into the weekend the local pressure gradient should
weaken in response to the high pressure ridge shifting farther east
across the Atlantic and a cold front entering and moving across
the west Atlantic. Therefore expect lesser moisture transport in
the decreasing easterly trade winds which in turn will result in
lesser amounts of late evening and early morning passing shower
activity with somewhat drier conditions for Friday and Saturday.

By sunday and into early next week, winds are to become more
northeasterly as high pressure ridge will build once again across
the west Atlantic. This pattern will bring periods of early morning
showers due to low level moisture convergence and the increasing
northeast trade winds.

&&

.AVIATION....Brief MVFR conditions will be possible until 01/15z in
the Leeward Islands otherwise VFR conditions will prevail across the
flying area through the forecast period. VCSH in SCT SHRA are
expected across TJSJ, TIST, TISX, TNCM and TKPK today but decreasing
aft 01/15z. SCT SHRA will dvlp btwn 01/18-22Z wrn/swrn PR with some
mtn obscurations. Winds will be mainly from the ENE at 15-30 kts
below FL180. Maximum winds west at 40 kts at FL410 at 02/00z.

&&

.MARINE...Moderate to fresh easterly winds will persist across most
of the regional waters except for the local passages and offshore Atlantic
and Caribbean waters, where winds may become fresh to locally strong
at times. The wind driven seas will create hazardous marine conditions
through the end of the work week.

The moderate to strong trade winds will cause seas to rise and
therefore increase the risk of strong rip currents on the north
and east facing beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra,Vieques and St
Croix.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 86 75 / 40 40 40 30
STT 85 74 86 75 / 30 40 40 30
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
133. Tropicsweatherpr
10:09 AM GMT on February 28, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
506 AM AST Tue Feb 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Bands of moisture bearing scattered showers will pass
through the area bringing the most rain to the windward sides of
the islands. Showers diminish a little on Thursday but return over
the weekend. Cold fronts, remain well north but will be of some
effect in the local area.

At upper levels...High pressure extends from the southwest
Caribbean across Hispaniola, but will slowly weaken as a trough
moves into the area Wednesday and Wednesday night. Weak high
pressure approaches from the west, but a much broader trough to
the north forces it to the east over the weekend. A branch of the
subtropical jet will pass by just north of the area early next
week.

At mid levels...High pressure extending out of the northwest
Caribbean will remain just north of the local area until Saturday
when a broad long wave trough passes north of the area from the
west. The trough will dig weakly into the western tropical
Atlantic over the weekend and early next week to leave us in
northwesterly flow. Mid levels remain mostly dry.

At lower levels...High pressure sinking east southeast into the
central Atlantic will cause gradients to tighten over the area
today and Wednesday, resulting in moderate to strong winds across
the local area. Bands of shallow showers moving through will ride
these winds to bring brief modest amounts of rain to the area today
and Wednesday as well as over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Fast moving showers in several bands of moisture
moving through the area have brought light amounts of rain to
portions of Culebra, Vieques and the U.S. Virgin Islands and the
northeast half of the island of Puerto Rico. The heaviest amounts
fell over the north coastal area of Puerto Rico and the adjacent
waters with amounts of up to four tenths of an inch since midnight
as measured by National Weather Service Doppler Radar. These
showers will continue coming in through Wednesday. East northeast
trade wind flow is relatively moist in the lower levels and
precipitable water varies only a little between now and Monday,
reaching a minimum Thursday morning and then increasing through
Friday and again Monday through the following Wednesday. A
passing trough at upper levels will accentuate the rain early next
week but, over all, amounts will be under one half inch everywhere
even during the wettest episodes. The approach of cold fronts
will assist some of the shallow shower formation, but all fronts
are currently forecast to remain well north of the forecast area
through at least the next 10 to 12 days.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds are expected to prevail at all TAF sites with
brief MVFR conds possible early this morning in and around
TJBQ/TJSJ/TIST/TISX and the Leeward terminals in -SHRA. SHRA
development likely aft 28/16z across SW PR, and this may result in
VCSH at TJMZ through 28/22z. Easterly winds 15-20 knots with sea
breeze variations.


&&

.MARINE...Sea have begun to increase across all but the most
protected waters and seas at buoy 41043 have risen above 7 feet.
Model solutions have tended to increase from run to run and now
show 9 foot seas in the northeast corner of the forecast area
early Wednesday through Thursday. Have not yet introduced these
heights to our forecast since they will depend on winds stronger
than forecast to verify, but will monitor in case winds of 23 to
25 knots--sustained--are found. Seas in the outer waters are
expected to continue at or above 7 feet through at least Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 84 75 / 40 40 40 30
STT 85 74 86 75 / 30 40 40 30

&&
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
132. Tropicsweatherpr
10:09 AM GMT on February 28, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
506 AM AST Tue Feb 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Bands of moisture bearing scattered showers will pass
through the area bringing the most rain to the windward sides of
the islands. Showers diminish a little on Thursday but return over
the weekend. Cold fronts, remain well north but will be of some
effect in the local area.

At upper levels...High pressure extends from the southwest
Caribbean across Hispaniola, but will slowly weaken as a trough
moves into the area Wednesday and Wednesday night. Weak high
pressure approaches from the west, but a much broader trough to
the north forces it to the east over the weekend. A branch of the
subtropical jet will pass by just north of the area early next
week.

At mid levels...High pressure extending out of the northwest
Caribbean will remain just north of the local area until Saturday
when a broad long wave trough passes north of the area from the
west. The trough will dig weakly into the western tropical
Atlantic over the weekend and early next week to leave us in
northwesterly flow. Mid levels remain mostly dry.

At lower levels...High pressure sinking east southeast into the
central Atlantic will cause gradients to tighten over the area
today and Wednesday, resulting in moderate to strong winds across
the local area. Bands of shallow showers moving through will ride
these winds to bring brief modest amounts of rain to the area today
and Wednesday as well as over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Fast moving showers in several bands of moisture
moving through the area have brought light amounts of rain to
portions of Culebra, Vieques and the U.S. Virgin Islands and the
northeast half of the island of Puerto Rico. The heaviest amounts
fell over the north coastal area of Puerto Rico and the adjacent
waters with amounts of up to four tenths of an inch since midnight
as measured by National Weather Service Doppler Radar. These
showers will continue coming in through Wednesday. East northeast
trade wind flow is relatively moist in the lower levels and
precipitable water varies only a little between now and Monday,
reaching a minimum Thursday morning and then increasing through
Friday and again Monday through the following Wednesday. A
passing trough at upper levels will accentuate the rain early next
week but, over all, amounts will be under one half inch everywhere
even during the wettest episodes. The approach of cold fronts
will assist some of the shallow shower formation, but all fronts
are currently forecast to remain well north of the forecast area
through at least the next 10 to 12 days.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds are expected to prevail at all TAF sites with
brief MVFR conds possible early this morning in and around
TJBQ/TJSJ/TIST/TISX and the Leeward terminals in -SHRA. SHRA
development likely aft 28/16z across SW PR, and this may result in
VCSH at TJMZ through 28/22z. Easterly winds 15-20 knots with sea
breeze variations.


&&

.MARINE...Sea have begun to increase across all but the most
protected waters and seas at buoy 41043 have risen above 7 feet.
Model solutions have tended to increase from run to run and now
show 9 foot seas in the northeast corner of the forecast area
early Wednesday through Thursday. Have not yet introduced these
heights to our forecast since they will depend on winds stronger
than forecast to verify, but will monitor in case winds of 23 to
25 knots--sustained--are found. Seas in the outer waters are
expected to continue at or above 7 feet through at least Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 84 75 / 40 40 40 30
STT 85 74 86 75 / 30 40 40 30

&&
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
131. Tropicsweatherpr
10:33 AM GMT on February 27, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
505 AM AST Mon Feb 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Bands of showers will pass through the area in
increasing trade wind flow. Showers will taper off as moisture
diminishes through Friday, but high pressure will drive moderate
to fresh trade winds through the week.

At upper levels...A ridge over the central Caribbean will weaken
and then shift to the western Caribbean by mid week. A trough will
deepen and sharpen over the area on Wednesday and move into the
tropical Atlantic by Thursday. A weak ridge will over the area on
Friday leaving high pressure over most of northern South America
and west northwest flow over the local area.

At mid levels...High pressure will continue across the Greater
Antilles and north of Puerto Rico through Saturday. The ridge then
shifts south through the areas on Sunday.

At lower levels...High pressure moved into the western Atlantic
this morning and will build slightly as it moves north of the
local area east of Virginia. Then it will diminish somewhat and
move into the central Atlantic by Friday. A second high will leave
the east coast of the United States on Sunday. These highs will
keep moderate to fresh trade wind flow mostly from the east
northeast. Bands of moisture will pass through the area Monday and
Tuesday. Areas of moisture will pass over the local area south of
a front late in the week and over the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Bands of convection some with tops over 15 kft, have
passed through the area leaving amounts up to four tenths of an
inch in northeastern Puerto Rico. San Juan has had 16 hundredths
since midnight. Showers will continue through mid morning while
tapering off, then return overnight tonight for another round.
Accumulations will be light. Although isolated showers will occur
Wednesday through Friday better moisture will not occur until the
weekend. Cold fronts are tending to remain well north of the area,
but are still fostering some upward vertical motion between the
tropical air south of the area and the front over the weekend.
High pressure aloft is tending to keep mid levels relatively dry
otherwise.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conds are expected at all TAF sites with
brief MVFR conds possible early this morning in and around
JSJ/IST/ISX and the Leeward terminals in brief passing showers.
SHRA development likely aft 27/16z across SW PR, and this may
result in VCSH at JMZ through 27/22z. Easterly winds around 15
knots and sea breeze variations expected today.


&&

.MARINE...Winds increase today through Wednesday and seas become
rough and hazardous beginning early tonight. Small craft
advisories will remain up in the outer Atlantic waters at least
through Friday, but this time the Caribbean waters will also be
affected as seas will be mostly wind driven. Some north swell will
however be present during the week adding some confusion to the
seas in the Atlantic and passages. Winds will exceed 22 knots at
times over the local waters mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 76 85 76 / 60 30 40 20
STT 85 75 85 75 / 60 30 40 20

&&
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
130. Tropicsweatherpr
10:29 AM GMT on February 26, 2017
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
408 AM AST Sun Feb 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A surface low pressure system will continue to move
northeastward across the northwest Atlantic today. A strong
surface high pressure will move over the southwestern Atlantic
pushing the associated frontal boundary eastward. This high
pressure will maintain the local winds mostly from the east this
morning and from the east to east-northeast this afternoon and
Monday. As the surface high pressure moves toward the central
Atlantic, patches of low level moisture embedded in the northeast
trades are expected to moves across the region early in the week
increasing the chances of showers.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Under an easterly wind flow, Doppler weather radar
detected isolated showers moving westward across the U.S. Virgin
Islands and eastern sections of Puerto Rico overnight and early
this morning. Not significant precipitation was observed
elsewhere across the region so far this morning. Under a relative
stable weather pattern, only small patches of moisture associated
with the easterly wind flow are expected to affect the eastern and
sections of Puerto Rico during the rest of the morning hours, but
mostly sunny skies are expected across most of the region. The
limited moisture in combination with daytime heating, sea breeze
convergence and other local effect are still expected to produce
some cloudiness and showers across interior and western Puerto
Rico this afternoon.


An increase in wind speed is expected early in the week, as the
surface high pressure strengthens over the central Atlantic just
north of the region. A generally dry and stable weather conditions
are expected to prevail over the region today. By early next
week, areas of moisture embedded in the trades will move across
the region from time to time, increasing the frequency of trade
wind showers across the local islands and surrounding waters.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds will prevail across all terminals through the
forecast period. Few passing showers will affect the coastal waters
N and E of PR and en route btw PR and the Northern Leeward islands
til 26/12Z. Sf winds light and variable...bcmg fm E-NE aft 26/14Z...
incr 10-15 kts aft 26/13z with sea breeze variations. L/lvl wnds fm
E-NE 5-15 kts Blo FL100...bcm fm S-SW up to FL250...then fm N and
incr w/ht abv. Mostly SKC abv FL100. No sig operational impacts ovr
local flying area or at local TAF sites attm.

&&

.MARINE...Seas have diminished near 5 feet across the offshore
Atlantic waters. Seas are expected to increase once again Monday
night into Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 85 74 / 20 20 20 40
STT 83 73 85 74 / 20 20 20 40
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
129. Tropicsweatherpr
10:13 AM GMT on February 25, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
418 AM AST Sat Feb 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A surface low pressure and associated frontal boundary
across the western Atlantic in combination with a surface high
pressure across the central Atlantic will continue to produce a
southeasterly wind flow across the region until at least Sunday. A
strong surface high pressure will move over the southwestern
Atlantic on Sunday. As this happens, the local wind is expected to
shift from the east on Sunday and from the East to east-northeast
on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Under a southeast wind flow, Doppler weather radar
detected isolated showers moving northwestward across the U.S.
Virgin Islands and eastern sections of Puerto Rico overnight and
early this morning. Under an stable weather pattern, only small
patches of moisture associated with the southeasterly wind flow
are expected to affect the eastern and southeastern sections of
Puerto Rico during the rest of the morning hours, but mostly sunny
skies are expected across most of the region. The limited moisture
in combination with daytime heating, sea breeze convergence and
other local effect are still expected to produce some cloudiness
and showers across interior and northwest Puerto Rico this
afternoon, but not widespread or significant precipitation is
expected. Under an east southeast low level wind flow, warmer
than normal temperatures are expected this afternoon mostly across
the northern coastal areas of Puerto Rico.

As the low pressure center an associated frontal boundary moves
northeastward toward the northwest Atlantic, a strong surface high
pressure is expected to move across the southwestern Atlantic.
This feature will induce an easterly low level wind flow across
the region on Sunday and an east to east-northeast wind flow by
Monday. An increase in wind speed is also expected as the surface
high pressure strengthens north of the region. Dry and generally
stable conditions are expected to continue over the region today
and Sunday. By early next week, a prefrontal trough will move back
across the region, increasing the frequency of trade wind showers
across the local islands.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds at all TAF sites through the fcst prd. Few
clds FL025..FL060...SKC abv. Isold -SHRA/SHRA. Prevailing east to
southeast wind flow at 10 knots or less except for local sea breeze
variations along the coastal areas. Wnds fm se 5-15 kts blo FL200...
bcmg fm SW to W and incr w/ht abv. No sig operational or wx impact
attm.

&&

.MARINE...Mariners can expect seas between 5 and 7 feet across
the offshore Atlantic Waters early this morning. Seas are expected
to decrease to 4 to 6 feet by mid morning and will continue to
slowly subside today. Beach goers should exercise caution due to a
high risk of rip currents for the northwest to northeast facing
beaches of Puerto Rico and for the northern facing beaches of
Culebra and the northern USVI. Small Craft Advisory is in effect
until early this morning for the offshore Atlantic waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 74 85 74 / 20 20 20 40
STT 83 73 85 74 / 20 20 20 40

&&
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
128. Tropicsweatherpr
10:00 AM GMT on February 24, 2017
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
509 AM AST Fri Feb 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Low pressure system and associated cold front moving
across the western Atlantic and high pressure anchored across the
north central Atlantic will continue to induce a south to southeast
wind flow across the region through at least Saturday. Mid to upper
level ridge will continue to gradually erode aloft today through
Saturday as a polar trough will move across the west Atlantic.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The prevailing winds are expected to remain from the
south to southeast today with a gradual decrease in moisture advection
during the rest of the day and into the weekend. However patches of
shallow low to mid level moisture and a few showers will move across
the regional waters and affect portions of the islands during the
rest of the morning hours. Thereafter mostly sunny skies and fair
weather expected with only a few afternoon showers possible mainly
along and near the north coastal sections of Puerto rico as well
as over portions of the northern Virgin islands. Shower activity
will be limited today as an overall drying trend is expected.


For Saturday...mostly fair weather skies expected under a prevailing
light to moderate south to southeast wind flow. Slightly warmer afternoon
high temperatures are forecast for today and Saturday along the northern
half of PR and around the San Juan metro area, as lesser cloud cover
is expected. On Sunday and into early next week, winds are to become
more easterly one again and increase as high pressure ridge will build
north and west of the region once again. By then, expect a slight increase
in passing trade wind low level clouds and showers especially during
the late evening and early morning hours. Shower activity during the
day should however be limited and of short durations due to the increasing
trade winds and strengthening cap inversion aloft. So far no significant
weather feature in sight for the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected across the local flying
area with VCSH possible across the Leewards and USVI taf sites due
to small areas of low level moisture embedded in the trades, moving
across the region until 24/15Z. Southeast winds will continue light
and variable until 24/14Z, increasing to 10-15 knots after 24/14Z
with sea breeze variations. Mountain obscurations likely until
24/17Z.

&&

.MARINE...Northerly swell continued to arrive across the local
Atlantic waters and passages is still expected to peak this
morning. Buoy 41043 suggests offshore Seas now near 9 feet and
between 11-12 secs while the near shore buoys suggest Seas near 6
feet around 11 secs. Small craft advisories are in effect for the
Atlantic waters and local passages. Small craft should exercise
caution elsewhere except for the near shore coastal waters of
west and south Puerto Rico. There is a high risk of rip currents
for the Northwest through northeast coastlines of PR as well as
Culebra and the northern U.S Virgin Islands.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 73 86 75 / 20 0 30 20
STT 82 72 84 73 / 30 10 30 20
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
127. Tropicsweatherpr
9:57 AM GMT on February 23, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
427 AM AST Thu Feb 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Mid to upper level high pressure ridge will build overhead and
remain in place through Friday, then gradually weaken and shift eastward
on Saturday and Sunday as a polar trough will move across the western
Atlantic. Surface high pressure will continue to build and spread eastward
into the north central Atlantic by Friday as an area of low pressure
and associated cold front will enter the southwest Atlantic today while
lifting east northeast across the west Atlantic. This overall pattern
will cause the local winds to become more easterly today then southeasterly
by Friday as the surface high becomes reinforced across the north central
and northeast Atlantic.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The prevailing northeast winds will continue to
transport patches of shallow low level moisture and occasional
showers to the regional waters and portions of the north and east
coastal sections of the islands during the rest of the morning
hours. By late morning cloudiness and shower activity should diminish
resulting in mostly sunny fair weather skies. During the afternoon
hours, expect the prevailing winds to become more southeasterly
and gradually increase. This along with local and diurnal effect
will lead to increasing cloudiness and isolated to scattered
shower development across parts of the central and northwest
sections of Puerto Rico as well as around parts of the San juan
metro area. For the rest of the islands, expect limited shower
activity with only a few quick quick passing showers in isolated
spots as mostly sunny skies should prevail during the day.

On Friday and into the weekend similar weather conditions expected with
brief passing early morning showers forecast to affect mainly the east
coastal sections of the islands. This will be followed by mostly isolated
afternoon showers across portions of the northern half of Puerto Rico.
Mostly fair weather skies expected for the USVI. Under a prevailing
southeast low level wind flow on Friday and Saturday, expect slightly
warmer daytime high temperature along the north half of Puerto Rico
and the San Juan metro area.

By Sunday and Monday, the formation of a weak prefrontal trough will
create sufficient low level moisture convergence across the region
to increase chances of early morning and afternoon convection mainly
over parts of the interior sections of Puerto Rico. By Tuesday of
next week ...the Atlantic surface high is forecast to build once
again north of the region and consequently tighten the local pressure
gradient. This in turn will increase the east to northeast trade winds...
which will be also be supported by increasing subsidence aloft and a
gradual drying trend across the region once again.


&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected across the local flying
area for the next 24 hours. However ISOLD-SCT SHRA expected in
the vicinity of most of the terminals this morning except for
TJMZ. Passing SHRA ovr the coastal waters and en route between
islands til 23/14z. Few tops nr FL220. Low level winds are
expected to become more from the E to ESE after 23/12Z. ISOLD to
SCT SHRA is expected this afternoon, with VCSH possible across
the local terminals through the rest of the day.

&&

.MARINE...The wave watch model guidance continued to suggest
building seas across the local Atlantic water during the day.
Recent data from buoy 41043 showed seas now up to 7 feet in the
past few hours. Therefore small craft advisory will go into effect
for the Atlantic outer waters from 23/18Z. Small craft operators
should exercise caution across the rest of the Atlantic waters and
local passages. Winds are also expected to increase and become
more east to southeast today and through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 73 87 74 / 20 20 20 10
STT 85 73 82 74 / 30 20 20 20

&&
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
126. Tropicsweatherpr
10:17 AM GMT on February 22, 2017
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
452 AM AST Wed Feb 22 2017

SYNOPSIS...Deep layered area of low pressure and associated polar
trough was now located across central Atlantic and northeast of
the northern leewards. The trough axis extends southwest across
the lesser antilles and will continue to shift east southeast.
The departing trough along with a broad surface high pressure
moving across the west Atlantic will continue to induce a
northerly flow across the region today. The Low level winds are
expected to remain dominant from the north through the early
afternoon, then gradually become more to northeasterly later in
the afternoon and overnight as the high pressure ride migrates
eastward across the Atlantic. The prevailing wind flow is then
expected to return east to southeast by Thursday and Friday as
the ridge will move into and then linger across the central
and northeast Atlantic into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Under the influence of northerly winds, expect isolated
to scattered fast moving showers mainly of light to moderate intensity
mainly along the northern coast of Puerto Rico and the USVI during
the rest of the early morning hours. By the late morning and early
afternoon, cloudiness and shower activity should diminish along the
north coastal areas. During the rest of the day,cloud development
should then be focused along central mountain range and the south
coastal plains of Puerto Rico. Elsewhere expect only brief streamer
like shower activity during the afternoon hours as mostly fair weather
and sunny skies should prevail with pleasant daytime temperatures
and limited shower activity.

On Thursday and by the end of the week expect the trade winds to become
more southeasterly as the high pressure ridge shifts eastward across
the Central Atlantic,c and a cold front will enter and move across
the west Atlantic. This expected southerly low level wind flow will
bring warmer temperatures especially along the north coastal areas
and an even drier airmass to the region. Therefore looking for
unseasonably warmer temperature at least for Friday through Saturday
along the northern half of PR, then a return to near normal temperature
by Sunday into early next week. So far no significant weather maker
in sight for the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected across the local flying
area for the next 24 hours. Some light and brief showers can be
expected in the vicinity of the terminals this morning. Low level
winds are expected to be more from the NE to ENE after 22/12Z at
about 10 KT with sea breeze variations. SCT SHRA expected to develop
across southern PR after 22/18Z inducing VCSH at TJPS and possibly
affect the terminal at times between 22/18Z and 22/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...Seas and winds will diminish somewhat early today to 5
feet or less and up to 10 knots over the coastal waters. However a
gradual increase in winds and seas is expected later this afternoon
and for the rest of the week with seas up to 7 feet expected to
approach the offshore Atlantic waters by Thursday and Friday due
to pulses from a northerly swell. There is a moderate risk of rip
currents for most of the north facing beaches of the islands. The
increasing winds and seas by the latter part of the week will again
cause the risk of rip currents to become high again on Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 73 86 73 / 30 30 30 20
STT 84 74 82 73 / 30 30 30 20
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
125. Tropicsweatherpr
10:19 AM GMT on February 21, 2017
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
458 AM AST Tue Feb 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Upper trof north of the area and associated weak
surface boundary will continue to move to the east and exit the
forecast area today. Ridge pattern will follow from the west and
drier fair weather is expected to prevail for the rest of the
week. Northerly winds will shift to the southeast on Thursday as
surface high moves north of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Scattered to numerous showers with isolated
thunderstorms over the Atlantic coastal waters moved across the
forecast area during the overnight. The heaviest showers remained
just north of the northern USVI. For the next few hours
additional showers are expected to move across the islands but
sunny skies are expected to return by the late morning hours.
Overnight temperatures were in the low to mid 60s across the
higher elevations to the low 70s across coastal areas.

Overall fair weather conditions are forecast to prevail for the
rest of the week as ridge pattern builds from the west and cap
inversion keep moisture below 800 MB. However, diurnally induced
afternoon showers cannot be ruled out each day and trade wind
showers should prevail across the northern and eastern coastal
areas through Thursday. Another upper trof and associated surface
boundary are forecast to move north of the area by late Sunday
enhancing shower activity once again.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA will affect the flying area thru 14Z. As a
result, MVFR cigs are possible in passing SHRA across TJBQ,TJSJ and
TIST. VFR conds are expected after 14Z...with limited shower
activity over the region. West winds of 10-15 kt will continue below
FL150.

&&

.MARINE...Small pulses of northerly swell are forecast to reach
the regional waters for the next few days. Swell is expected to
peak on Friday morning between 4-6 feet. There is a moderate risk
of rip currents along the northern beaches of the islands.
West to northwest winds between 10-15 knots will continue today as
weak frontal boundary moves across the local area.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 72 83 71 / 20 20 20 30
STT 82 74 82 72 / 50 20 20 30
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
124. Tropicsweatherpr
10:28 AM GMT on February 19, 2017
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
459 AM AST Sun Feb 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A weak frontal boundary over the local Atlantic Waters
will dissipate over the next few days. Moisture associated with the
front will pool across the local islands through Monday. Upper level
trough will move into the Western Atlantic tonight and swing across
the Northeast Caribbean on Monday...increasing the chances of showers
across the local area. Drier air mass will return to the region between
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Satellite derived precipitable water analysis as
well as latest surface analysis show a frontal boundary extending
from the Central Atlantic to the Northeast Caribbean Region.
Although...mid level ridge will hold through tonight...moisture
associated with the weak front will reach the local islands...
inducing scattered showers across the forecast area during the
next 24-48 hours. For today...some showers will affect the north
coast of Puerto Rico through after sunrise...followed with
scattered showers over Western Puerto Rico this afternoon.

Conditions will become more unstable late tonight into Monday as
an upper level trough amplifies across the Northeast Caribbean
Region. The trough aloft will enhance the convective instability.
Therefore...shower coverage will likely increase on Monday.

After the front passes/dissipates, a generally fair weather pattern
will likely establish between Tuesday and Wednesday. Northeast winds
will bring low clouds along windward slopes and cooler temperature
across most of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals through
much of the forecast period. However, SHRA and BKN/OVC cigs btw
FL070-FL120 over the Atlantic waters could reach the northern
sections of PR and IST early in the forecast period. From 19/18z-
23z, SHRA is expected to develop across the northwest quadrant of
PR. This can result in tempo MVFR conditions at JBQ/JMZ. Low level
winds light from the ENE through at least 19/12z...ESE at 10-15 kts
with sea breeze variations after 19/13z.

&&

.MARINE...A moderate swell will continue to reach the Local
Atlantic waters through late tonight. Seas of 4-6 feet in north
swell have increased the risk of rip current along the north coast
of Puerto Rico. Seas will gradually subside Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 73 86 76 / 20 10 30 50
STT 81 74 80 73 / 10 20 20 50
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
123. Tropicsweatherpr
11:10 AM GMT on February 18, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
450 AM AST Sat Feb 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Fair weather pattern will prevail across the islands
most of the weekend. Then...moisture associated with a weak front
will spread over the islands late Sunday into Monday. Potent upper
level trough will swing across the Northeast Caribbean early next
week...increasing the chances of showers across the local area.
Drier and more stable air mass will return to the region by
midweek next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery depicts a weak front just north of
Puerto Rico this morning. A dry air mass have been prevailing
across the local islands resulting in mostly clear skies and no
shower activity. This tranquil conditions will likely persist the
rest of today. However...the sea breeze convergence will lead to
isolated to scattered showers over portions of Southwest Puerto
Rico this afternoon. Elsewhere...mostly sunny skies and limited
shower activity are forecast under the influence of the mid-upper
level ridge. Gentle easterly winds and near normal temperatures
will prevail through tonight.

The ridge aloft will hold the rest of the weekend...however
moisture associated with the weak front will spread over Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands by Sunday afternoon. As a
result...moderate northeasterly flow will push some showers over
the islands from time to time. Afternoon showers will be possible
once again over Western PR on Sunday afternoon.

Conditions will become moist and unstable as moisture associated
with the remnants of the front persists over the local islands
and upper level trough enhances the instability. At this time...
wetter conditions are likely between Monday and Tuesday under the
influence of the upper level trough. Dry air will return to the
local islands by midweek... leading to fair weather conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals
through the forecast period. SHRA with max tops around FL250 should
remain over the offshore Atlantic waters due to a weak front. Brief
SHRA expected to develop across the southwest quadrant of PR between
18/18z-22z. This could result in VCSH at JMZ/JPS. Low level winds
ENE at 8-15 kts. Sea breeze variations after 18/13z.

&&

.MARINE...Relatively tranquil conditions are prevailing across the
regional waters. Winds of 5-10 kts and seas of 2-4 feet will continue
to prevail through tonight. Winds will increase slightly and seas
will build to 4-6 feet on Sunday as a northerly swell reaches the
local Atlantic Waters and Caribbean Passages. Tranquil conditions
will return to the region early in the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 73 84 74 / 0 10 10 10
STT 84 72 83 73 / 10 10 10 10
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
122. Tropicsweatherpr
11:07 AM GMT on February 17, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
448 AM AST Fri Feb 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Sub-equatorial ridge will continue to dominate the
local weather. Under the influence of this mid-upper level
ridge...fair weather conditions will prevail over the next few
days. Pattern will change between Sunday and Monday as an upper
level trough amplify across the Western Atlantic. Increasing
clouds and shower activity is anticipated early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Satellite derived precipitable water analysis shows
a dry air mass around 30%-40% below normal upstream of the U.S.
Virgin Islands. This drier and stable air mass will limit the
shower activity across the Northeast Caribbean Islands today.
High pressure over the Eastern Atlantic and frontal boundary over
the Bahamas is inducing gentle east-southeast flow across the
local region today. This will lead to another warm day along the
coastal sections of PR/USVI with maximum temperatures around 86-88
degrees...2-4 degrees above normal for this time of the year.

The ridge aloft will help to maintain the fair weather pattern
through Sunday Morning. A weak surface high pressure will move
over the Western Atlantic during the weekend...inducing a northeast
flow. With the northeast component...temperatures are forecast to
remain near or below normal through midweek next week. Moisture
will pool again over the islands on Sunday as surface high pressure
brings patches of moisture associated with the remnants of the
boundary over the islands. In addition...upper trough will swing
across the Northeast Caribbean...increasing the convective instability.
As a result...additional clouds and showers can be expected Sunday
through Tuesday. Dry air will return to the local islands by midweek...
leading to tranquil weather conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals
through the forecast period. Isolated to scattered showers possible
in the afternoon across the southwest quadrant of PR. This could
result in VCSH at JMZ/JPS. Low level wind ESE at 10 kts or less. Sea
breeze variations after 14z.

&&

.MARINE...Northerly swell continues to fade out across the local
waters today. Offshore and nearshore buoys have indicated seas of
3-4 feet across the region. Seas will increase to 3-5 feet on
Sunday as another small swell reaches the local Atlantic Waters.
No small craft advisories are anticipated over the next 5 days.
Gentle winds will prevail today, increasing somewhat as shift from
the northeast during the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 73 84 73 / 10 0 0 20
STT 83 71 83 73 / 20 0 10 20

&&
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
121. Tropicsweatherpr
11:07 AM GMT on February 16, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
430 AM AST Thu Feb 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Light southeasterly winds are expected to prevail
today and Friday. Relatively dry air will prevail through the
weekend. Mainly fair weather expected and any showers that may
affect the local islands should be limited to brief isolated to
scattered brief showers in the overnight hours over the windward
side of PR and over the USVI, then afternoon shower development
possible due to local effects and diurnal heating over PR. Marine
and surf zone conditions to remain hazardous today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The big story continues to be the local marine
conditions as the northerly swell will continue to cause
hazardous seas and surf zone conditions which includes high
breaking waves and a high risk of rip currents. When it comes to
the local weather, generally fair weather is expected with
possible showers developing across areas of sea breeze convergence
in the afternoon, which is expected today across the central and
western interior as well as some areas of north central PR. Some
of these showers could be moderate to briefly heavy but generally
speaking, the showers that do develop today are not expected to
cause anything more than some ponding of water on roadways and
poor drainage areas. The rest of the local area should remain dry
with only a slight chance of showers. Brief isolated showers are
still expected during the overnight hours for the next few days,
mainly affecting the local waters, USVI, and eastern PR.

A SFC high pressure across the northeastern Atlantic is slowly
moving to the NE while a SFC low pressure across the NE-US
continues to move NE. This will cause a SFC trough to move into the
NW of the local area and in turn cause a COL over the local area
by Friday, which will keep the local islands observing rather
light SE winds through the end of the workweek. A SFC high
pressure will move to the north of the local islands this weekend,
bringing back easterly wind flow. Broad high pressure in the
upper levels is still expected to dominate through the end of the
week. A broad upper trough is forecast to move over the area
early next week. The result of this may be increased shower
activity but at this time it looks like the increase in shower
activity will be for the leeward islands and not to have a
significant effect on the local islands. This is a few days out in
the forecast so the confidence is moderately low, although models
have been consistent.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds are expected to prevail through the forecast
period at all TAF sites with brief MVFR conds possible in and around
JBQ/JMZ due to SHRA aft 16/17z. East southeast winds around 10 knots
with some sea breeze variations aft 16/15z.

&&

.MARINE...The long period northerly swell will continue to
affect the local waters today. Seas between 6 and 10 feet are
expected across the Atlantic waters and Caribbean passages, which
are currently being confirmed by the local buoys. Elsewhere, small
craft operators are urged to exercise caution due to seas up to 6
feet. Dangerous breaking wave heights will create minor coastal
erosion and hazardous rip currents across some beaches of Puerto
Rico, Culebra and Northern U.S. Virgin Islands. Marine conditions
are expected to slowly improve after Tonight. There are high surf
and small craft advisories in effect, there is also a high risk of
rip currents.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 72 85 72 / 20 10 10 20
STT 83 72 84 72 / 20 20 20 20
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
120. Tropicsweatherpr
11:11 AM GMT on February 15, 2017
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
518 AM AST Wed Feb 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Light east to southeasterly winds are expected to
prevail over the next few days. Relatively dry air will prevail
over the next few days as well. Mainly fair weather expected and
any showers that may affect the local islands should be limited
to brief isolated to scattered brief showers in the overnight
hours over the windward side of PR and over the USVI, then
afternoon shower development possible due to local effects and
diurnal heating over PR. Marine and surf zone conditions to become
hazardous today and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A weak SFC high pressure will pass to the north of
the local islands before being absorbed by a larger high pressure
across the eastern Atlantic and then slowly will move to the NE
while a SFC low pressure across the NE-US continues to move NE,
causing a SFC trough to the NW of the local area and in turn
causing a COL over the local area which will then keep the local
islands observing rather light ESE to SE winds through the end of
the workweek. A SFC high pressure will move to the north of the
local islands, bringing back easterly wind flow for the weekend.
Broad high pressure in the upper levels is also expected to
dominate through the end of the week. A broad upper trough is
forecast to move over the area early next week.

The current pattern setup will cause mainly fair weather to
continue through the end of the week. The limited available
moisture that is expected for the next several days will cause
mainly isolated to scattered showers in the overnight and early
morning hours across the local waters, the USVI and the windward
side of PR. But those showers are not expected to cause much
rainfall accumulations. Having said that, the local effects in PR
in combination with the diurnal heating will help develop showers
in the afternoon, especially in the areas of sea breeze
convergence, some of these showers could be significant in terms
of accumulation as it would not be surprising to see some of the
showers produce up to an inch of rain or so across isolated areas,
which could cause some ponding of water in poor drainage areas,
but generally speaking the showers that do develop should produce
a quarter inch of rain or less. For today, given the expected wind
flow and the sea breeze convergence location, the area with the
most expected rainfall is the NW quadrant of PR, similar thing for
Thursday as the general wind flow is not expected to change too
much, showers may make it a bit more towards the interior of PR on
Thursday than today.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds are expected to prevail through the forecast
period at all TAF sites with brief MVFR conds possible in and around
JBQ due to SHRA aft 15/17z. Light winds will continue early this
morning but becoming east southeast at around 10 knots aft 15/15z.


&&

.MARINE...There is a high risk of rip currents today for the
northeast to the northwest coasts of PR as well as some beaches in
Culebra. SW PR will have moderate risk of rip currents early but
will have a high risk of rip currents in the afternoon. Saint
thomas will have a high risk of rip currents across the
northwestern beaches today, worsening surf zone conditions
tonight. Northerly swell will cause local seas to deteriorate
starting tonight with seas rising up to 8 feet. A small craft
advisory will go into effect tonight at 8 PM AST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 73 86 72 / 20 10 20 20
STT 83 73 82 71 / 20 10 20 20
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
119. Tropicsweatherpr
11:12 AM GMT on February 14, 2017
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
445 AM AST Tue Feb 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...As trofiness aloft moves away today, a weak mid to
upper level ridge will build across the forecast area and hold
through early next week. This will result in a seasonable weather
pattern during the next several days with warm temperatures likely
across the northern slopes of Puerto Rico Wed and Thu.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with brief shower
activity was observed overnight and early this morning across the
local islands. The overnight minimum temperatures were generally in
the low to mid 70s across the lower elevations and in the mid to
upper 60s across the higher elevations. The wind was light from the
north northeast.

A generally fair weather pattern is expected to prevail across the
local islands during the next few days. However showers embedded in
the trades may reach the coastal areas at times to result in passing
showers. Although ridge aloft will prevail Wed through early next
week; locally induced afternoon showers cant be ruled out due to
sea breeze convergence each afternoon. Unseasonable temperatures
are likely across the northern slopes of Puerto Rico Wed-Thu as a
building surface high north of the area moves into the central
Atlantic by mid week. There is a surface front which is expected
to dissipate north or the area the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected across the local terminals with SCT
-SHRA causing VCSH across TIST, TISX, TJSJ in the morning hours.
Light winds early in the morning but increasing to about 10KT and
turning N to NE for TJBQ, TJSJ, TIST after 14/14Z while sea breeze
variations will affect TJPS and TJMZ. TIST, TNCM and TKPK will have
East to ENE winds. SCT to locally NMRS SHRA in the afternoon may
affect the vicinity of TJPS and TJMZ after 14/16Z.

&&

.MARINE...Seas are expected to remain below 5 feet today. Another
northerly swell is forecast to reach the local Atlantic waters
and Passages by Wednesday afternoon. A moderate risk of rip
currents continues along the Atlantic shorelines today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 86 73 / 40 20 20 10
STT 84 73 84 73 / 40 20 20 10

&&
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
118. Tropicsweatherpr
10:51 AM GMT on February 12, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
501 AM AST Sun Feb 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will continue to move closer to the islands.
The moisture associated with this boundary is expected to pool
over the region late this afternoon into at least Tuesday. At the
same time, an upper-level trough will swing by through mid
midweek. As a result, cloudiness will increase, as well as the
chance of scattered to widespread showers late this afternoon into
the first half of the week. Surface winds are forecast to shift
from the east-southeast and a ridge pattern aloft could return
after mid week. This weather pattern will result in warmer than
normal temperatures across the islands.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The northeast wind flow brought a patch of moisture with clouds
and showers across the northern half portion of Puerto Rico and
the northern U.S. Virgin Islands overnight. This wind flow
supported pleasant climatological temperatures across the local
islands. Isolated showers embedded in the northeasterly winds are
expected to move through the islands this morning. High
resolution model are suggesting the development of afternoon
convection over the interior and southern portion of Puerto Rico.

A surface high pressure across the Western Atlantic will push the
frontal boundary into the region through Tuesday. This will
combined with a mid to upper level trough enhancing instability
across the region. The trough pattern was suggested by the 500 mb
temperatures and 200 mb heights (among other variables) which are
forecasting colder than normal temperatures and lower than normal
heights, respectively.

Model guidance suggested the return of an upper level ridge after
mid week. In addition, surface winds are forecast to shift from
the east-southeast around Thursday into the end of the week. As a
result, the combination of a stable air mass with a southerly
wind flow will result in limited shower activity with warmer than
normal temperatures. However, patches of low level moisture are
expected at times each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected across the forecast area
through 12/12Z. Increasing cloudiness with SHRA are expected at
TJBQ and TJSJ from around 12/12z producing brief periods of MVFR
conditions. Brief periods of MVFR conditions can be expected
elsewhere after 12/18Z as frontal boundary moves through the area.
Low level winds will be mainly from the east northeast at 10 to
15 kts with higher gusts in showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A northerly swell is propagating across the Western Atlantic.
A high surf advisory was issued due to breaking waves between 10
and 14 feet along the north facing beaches of Puerto Rico. Marine
conditions are deteriorating across the local Atlantic waters and
Caribbean Passages as a swell produces seas between 7 and 10 feet
with occasional seas up to 11 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 82 72 / 30 50 50 20
STT 83 72 82 72 / 30 50 50 20
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
117. Tropicsweatherpr
10:36 AM GMT on February 11, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
520 AM AST Sat Feb 11 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Ridge is weakening aloft as an upper level trough amplifies over
the region. A high pressure on the West Atlantic will move
eastward pushing a frontal boundary near and into the region late
Saturday night into the upcoming week. As a result, cloudiness
will increase, as well as the chance of widespread showers Sunday
into the first part of the upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The northeast wind flow brought pleasant climatological
temperatures across the local islands. However, clouds and
showers slowly increased across the surrounding waters and some of
them moved inland over the windward sections overnight and early
this morning. The northeast wind flow will continue to push clouds
and showers mainly to the north of the Cordillera Central,
Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands during the morning hours.
Then, afternoon convection is expected to develop over the
interior and southwest portion of Puerto Rico.

A migratory surface high pressure will continue to move eastward
across the Western Atlantic. This pressure system will push a
frontal boundary near and across the local Atlantic waters late
Saturday night into early next week. This feature will combine
with a mid-upper level trough to bring an increase in low level
moisture and local instability across the region.

Model guidance suggested the arrival of a dry air mass and the
return of an upper level ridge by the upcoming mid week. The
surface winds are forecast to become more from the southeast,
increasing the local temperatures through this period.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all TAF sites
through the forecast period. Some passing showers are expected
over TNCM AND TKPK. VCSH are possible over TIST, TISX and TJSJ.
Low level winds will be mainly east northeast at around 15 kts
with higher gusts.

&&

.Marine...Seas of 3 to 6 feet expected across the region today.
However, seas will increase by late tonight, as a northerly swell
is expected to move from the north-northwest across the region.
Therefore, a small craft advisory is in effect across the Atlantic
waters and Caribbean passages late tonight into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 82 74 / 20 40 70 40
STT 85 72 83 73 / 20 20 50 40
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
116. Tropicsweatherpr
10:28 AM GMT on February 10, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
446 AM AST Fri Feb 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Strong high pressure across the southeastern U.S. will
move across the western Atlantic, pushing a cold front across the
local area at the end of the weekend. An increase in cloudiness
and showers are expected by then. High pressure will weaken
quickly as another cold front exits the eastern U.S coast by
Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Clear skies prevailed across Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands overnight. No shower activity was observed
over most land areas. High pressure system will continue to
dominate the local region through at least Saturday night. A cold
front currently extending from the northeastern U.S, south toward
the northern Bahamas, will move rapidly southeastward during the
next couple of days. This cold front will approach the local area
Sunday night into Monday. An increase in cloudiness with showers
are then expected.

For early next week, the remnant of this front will linger across
the region through mid week.Therefore, some isolated to scattered
showers can be expected each day, beginning on Monday and
continuing through at least Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected through the forecast period with
little to no SHRA activity over the local area. Possible VCSH at
TJMZ/TJPS btwn 10/18Z-22Z with SCT-BKN ceilings at FL025-FL050. Calm
to light and variable winds until 10/13z, becoming from the NE at
around 15 kt and with sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...Seas up to 6 feet are expected to continue across the
offshore Atlantic waters through Saturday. Seas of 3 to 5 feet
can be expected elsewhere. Small craft operators should exercise
caution over the offshore Atlantic waters. Seas are expected to
increase on Saturday night and during the weekend as high
pressure ridge will build north of the region and a northerly
swell will arrive across the local waters.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 84 74 / 20 10 10 50
STT 85 73 84 73 / 20 10 20 30
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
115. Tropicsweatherpr
11:27 AM GMT on February 09, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
430 AM AST Thu Feb 9 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Strong high pressure across the North Central Atlantic
will move east as a cold front moves across the western Atlantic
next couple of days. Another high pressure system will build
behind the front. Patches of low level moisture embedded in the
trade winds will continue to affect the local islands from time to
time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Some light passing showers were seen across the
forecast area overnight. Some of these showers moved over the east
and southeast sections of Puerto Rico but were short lived. Local
area continue to be dominated by a high pressure system which is
located across the Central Atlantic. This high pressure will move
east next couple of days as a cold front exits the eastern U.S. by
Saturday.

This cold front will approach the local area by the end of the
weekend, but it is going to weaken as it moves closer to the area.
However, an increase in shower activity is expected mainly Monday
and Tuesday next week. In the meantime, patches of low level
moisture embedded in the trade winds will continue to affect the
local region from time to time.

&&

.AVIATION...Limited SHRA activity expected, however passing -SHRA
expected across TJSJ/TIST/TISX through the morning. TNCM/TKPK can
expect SCT-BKN ceiling at FL020-FL050 til at least 09/12z. Although
limited SHRA are expected btwn 09/18-23z, BKN ceiling at FL025-FL040
are possible at TJBQ/TJMZ. Winds mainly from the east at 5 to 10 kt
through 09/13Z, then increasing around 15 kt with higher gusts and
sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...Buoy 41043 indicated seas are gradually subsiding across
the offshore Atlantic waters. Latest model guidance indicated seas
will diminish below small craft advisory criteria by late tonight.
Kept the Small Craft advisory for AMZ-710 through 10 pm AST
tonight. Elsewhere, Seas up to 6 feet and winds up to 20 knots
are expected. Small Craft should exercise caution across these
waters.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 74 87 75 / 20 20 20 20
STT 84 73 85 73 / 20 20 20 20
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
114. Tropicsweatherpr
11:20 AM GMT on February 09, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
430 AM AST Thu Feb 9 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Strong high pressure across the North Central Atlantic
will move east as a cold front moves across the western Atlantic
next couple of days. Another high pressure system will build
behind the front. Patches of low level moisture embedded in the
trade winds will continue to affect the local islands from time to
time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Some light passing showers were seen across the
forecast area overnight. Some of these showers moved over the east
and southeast sections of Puerto Rico but were short lived. Local
area continue to be dominated by a high pressure system which is
located across the Central Atlantic. This high pressure will move
east next couple of days as a cold front exits the eastern U.S. by
Saturday.

This cold front will approach the local area by the end of the
weekend, but it is going to weaken as it moves closer to the area.
However, an increase in shower activity is expected mainly Monday
and Tuesday next week. In the meantime, patches of low level
moisture embedded in the trade winds will continue to affect the
local region from time to time.

&&

.AVIATION...Limited SHRA activity expected, however passing -SHRA
expected across TJSJ/TIST/TISX through the morning. TNCM/TKPK can
expect SCT-BKN ceiling at FL020-FL050 til at least 09/12z. Although
limited SHRA are expected btwn 09/18-23z, BKN ceiling at FL025-FL040
are possible at TJBQ/TJMZ. Winds mainly from the east at 5 to 10 kt
through 09/13Z, then increasing around 15 kt with higher gusts and
sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...Buoy 41043 indicated seas are gradually subsiding across
the offshore Atlantic waters. Latest model guidance indicated seas
will diminish below small craft advisory criteria by late tonight.
Kept the Small Craft advisory for AMZ-710 through 10 pm AST
tonight. Elsewhere, Seas up to 6 feet and winds up to 20 knots
are expected. Small Craft should exercise caution across these
waters.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 74 87 75 / 20 20 20 20
STT 84 73 85 73 / 20 20 20 20
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
113. Tropicsweatherpr
10:27 AM GMT on February 08, 2017
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
603 AM AST Wed Feb 8 2017

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure across the central atlantic will
continue to move farther away from the local area. A cold front
will approach the local area during the weekend. Patches of low
level moisture will continue to affect the local region from time
to time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Partly cloudy to clear skies prevailed across Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands overnight. Some light passing
showers were noted over the local waters. Local area will remain
under the influences of a high pressure system located across the
Central Atlantic. This high pressure is producing moderate to
fresh trade winds across the region. These winds will continue to
transport patches of low level moisture across the area today.

For next few days, a much drier air mass will encompass the local
region. Therefore, chances of showers will be minimal, except for
diurnal showers affecting the local islands from time to time.

&&

.AVIATION...A surge of moisture will bring periods of clouds and
showers across all TAF site at times. During the morning, SHRA
expected across TJSJ/TIST/TISX/TNCM/TKPK. This SHRA should be brief.
Then, TJSJ/TJBQ can expect SCT-BKN ceiling at FL025-FL050 btwn 08/15-
22z. Winds mainly from the east at 5 to 10 kt through 08/13Z, then
increasing at 15 to 20 mph with higher gusts in and near SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...Seas will gradually diminish through Thursday across
most coastal waters. Small Craft advisories will continue in
effect as seas near 7 feet and winds up to 20 knots are expected.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 87 74 / 30 20 20 10
STT 84 75 85 73 / 20 20 20 20
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
112. Tropicsweatherpr
10:30 AM GMT on February 07, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
559 AM AST Tue Feb 7 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Broad surface high pressure will continue across the
Central Atlantic promoting a moderate to fresh trade wind flow
across the islands. A polar trof and associated front will enter
the Western Atlantic on Wednesday and move north of the area by
late in the work week. In the short term, weak short wave trofs
will continue to promote moisture advection across the islands.
Mid level ridge will build from the east and a surface
perturbation will also move from the east on Thursday enhancing
the available low level moisture and weakening the cap inversion.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Trade wind showers continued across the local waters
with a some moving at times across the USVI and eastern portions
of Puerto Rico. The Doppler radar estimated less than a quarter of
an inch of rain with the heaviest showers over eastern PR. For the
rest of the day, trade wind shower pattern will continue and
diurnally induced scattered to numerous showers can be expected in
the afternoon across portions of western/northwestern PR. Similar
conditions are expected on Wednesday, but showers should be
isolated to scattered during the afternoon. Trade winds will
increase today as surface high north of the area moves and builds
across the Central Atlantic.

Later on Thursday, a surface perturbation will increase once again
the chances of showers across the islands through the late evening
hours. A polar trof and associated frontal boundary are forecast
at the moment to remain north of the area by Friday and linger
through the weekend. Meanwhile a strong surface high pressure
will build behind the front bring patches of the remnants of the
front and moisture advection on a northeasterly wind flow by early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conds will prevail across the area thru the
fcst pd. However, -SHRA in trade wind SHRA could affect the
Leeward/USVI and TJSJ terminals through 07/16z. Brief MVFR cigs and
mtn obscurations are likely near TJBQ/TJMZ btwn 07/18-21Z due to
afternoon SHRA over the mtn ranges and downstream from central and
wrn PR. Llvl winds from the E-ESE will increase to 15-20 kts aft
07/13Z with higher gusts and sea breeze variations expected aft
07/14z. Maximum winds 285/55 kt at FL410.

&&

.MARINE...Seas up to 8 feet and east winds up to 21 knots are
expected today. Small craft advisories are in effect for all the
near shore waters the islands, except the southern and western
coastal waters of Puerto Rico. There is a high risk of rip
currents along the Atlantic beaches of the islands.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 86 75 / 40 20 20 10
STT 84 75 83 74 / 30 10 20 10
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
111. Tropicsweatherpr
10:20 AM GMT on February 06, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
517 AM AST Mon Feb 6 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure north of the region will gradually
lift farther north into the north central Atlantic by Wednesday.
The ridge will then be reinforced by another high migrating west
to east and consequently strengthen and remain in place across
the north central Atlantic during the latter part of the work week
A cold front is forecast to enter and move across the western Atlantic
during the latter part of the week. High zonal flow aloft and weak
mid level ridging will allow for continued erosion of the trade wind
cap inversion. This will allow for better transport of low level moisture
across the region at least until Wednesday. The ridge is to build aloft
once again during the latter part of the work week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Weak induced low level trough in the prevailing easterlies will bring
another surge of low level moisture across the region today. Accompanying
showers will continue to affect the coastal waters and portions of
the north and east coastal sections of the islands from time to time.
Some showers may produce brief periods of moderate rainfall in isolated
spots but no widespread rainfall is expected this morning. The
availablemoisture along with local and diurnal effects will
support afternoon convection across the interior and west sections
of PR as well as in and around the San Juan metro area. Lesser
shower activity is expected across the U.S Virgin Islands during
the afternoon.

At least until Wednesday...the moderate to strong easterly wind
flow will continue to transport patches of shallow moisture across
the region. This will allow for periods of late evening and early
morning showers each day followed by isolated to scattered afternoon
showers mainly across portions of the interior and west sections of
Puerto Rico. Lesser moisture transport and showers activity is forecast
during the latter part of the week and into the weekend, as the ridge
will build aloft and the surface high pressure ridge will weaken across
the area in response to a polar trough and associated cold front forecast
to enter and move across western Atlantic.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA and MVFR moving thru TIST before 06/10Z.
Then increasing moisture from the east thru 06/18z will cause
increasing clouds and lowering CIGS. By 06/14z some stations will
see brief periods of MVFR in SHRA including TIST, TISX, TNCM, TKPK.
Then clds and SHRA will develop over PR aft 06/15z with mtn
obscurations and pds of MVFR expected at TJMZ and psbl at TJBQ by
06/17z. Sfc winds east 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt in SHRA.
Winds shift from east to west btwn FL120-240. Maximum winds at west
at 65 kt at FL410.

&&

.MARINE...Seas will continue to deteriorate today as the easterly
trade winds are forecast to increase and a northeast swell will
move across the offshore Atlantic waters. Small Craft advisories
will be in effect for the local offshore waters today. Small craft
operators should exercise caution elsewhere. Seas increasing up
to 7 feet offshore Atlantic waters...and up to 6 feet elsewhere.
Winds between 15 to 20 knots can be expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 85 74 / 40 30 30 30
STT 85 75 84 75 / 40 30 30 40
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
110. Tropicsweatherpr
10:43 AM GMT on February 05, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
543 AM AST Sun Feb 5 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Trade wind showers will continue as areas of moisture
pass through Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

At upper levels...Westerly flow continues. A sub equatorial jet
will into the area from the southwest late this week as a long
wave trough moves into the western Atlantic over the following
weekend. It will be joined by the sub tropical jet Saturday or
Sunday.

At mid levels...High pressure extending over the area from the
east northeast will become focused over the sub- tropical
Atlantic to our east northeast and a weak trough will move into the
area by late in the week. Weak troughs can be seen just south of
the local islands near 600 mb. Mid levels will see bubbles of
moisture pass through mostly dry air.

At lower levels...High pressure is moving east in the mid
latitudes and will settle in the north central Atlantic Monday. A
second high will move into the western Atlantic on Monday and
reinforce the first high beginning mid week. A low developing on a
front north of the area late next week will form a trough over
the area Friday or Saturday with a pre frontal trough over the
area and the cold front approaching. Models are not clear if the
front will actually pass through the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Showers continued over the north coastal
municipalities--mainly west of Canovanas--through much of the
night and some of this activity remains off the northwest coast of
Puerto Rico as of 05/09Z. This activity has been shallow and
entirely under 20 kft, but persistent, and many hours of showers
caused flooding in Hatillo. The trough at 600 mb south of the
islands may have helped with favorable conditions for shallow
convection. This trough will persist through Tuesday.

Winds are shifting a little more to the east northeast today so
the best convection is expected to form closer to the Cordillera
Central this afternoon. Although there is to be a break in the
moisture later this afternoon and evening, it may not come early
enough to prevent heavy, though shallow, showers across southwest
and west Puerto Rico with the possibility of urban and small
stream flooding. Because of the break in moisture and the more
northeasterly orientation of the winds rain is not expected to
persist so long tonight. Another patch of moisture will move
through the area on Monday with good chances for rain. Then winds
will begin to respond to the pre-frontal trough that will form
late in the week with the aid of some upper level jets and rain
chances will continue, but southeast flow will then favor the
northwest corner of Puerto Rico. This band is expected to persist
into early next week with clouds and showers that will also
depress temperatures several degrees.

Limited showers are expected during the upcoming week
for the U.S. Virgin Islands, but measurable rain cannot be ruled
out.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD to SCT SHRA across the local area will cause VCSH
across the local terminals through 05/14Z except for TJMZ with E to
ENE winds between 5-10KT. After 05/14Z the local winds will increase
slightly to 10-15KT from the E to ENE with sea breeze variations.
Developing SHRA in the afternoon will cause VCSH at TJSJ, TJPS, and
particularly TJMZ where the SHRA may affect the station and cause
brief MVFR conds.

&&

.MARINE...Seas will respond to higher than usual winds and some
areas in the outer Atlantic will see 7 foot seas. Later on Monday
a rising northerly swell will cause sea heights to continue at or
above 7 feet possibly through the week and into early next week--
mainly in the northern and subsequently the northeastern corner of
the forecast area. Some parts of the Mona passage will be affected
as well. Currently it is expected that the risk of rip currents
will increase from moderate to high Monday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 86 74 / 30 40 40 30
STT 85 74 84 74 / 40 30 30 30
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
109. Tropicsweatherpr
10:26 AM GMT on February 04, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
507 AM AST Sat Feb 4 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Patches of moisture in the prevailing trade wind flow
will generate showers for eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands during the overnight and morning hours and showers for
western and central interior Puerto Rico during the afternoons
into early next week.

At upper levels...A ridge extending north out of South America
across the eastern Caribbean will maintain westerly flow through
early next week. Then an equatorial jet will move toward the area
to meet an approaching long wave trough from the northwest such
that, although winds will increase, flow will remain westerly.

At mid levels...High pressure extends out of the central sub-
tropical Atlantic across the Greater Antilles through early next
week. Then weak low pressure forms on the periphery of mid
latitude troughs over the area through the end of next week. Mid
levels will see patches of moisture mingled with very dry air
through the period.

At lower levels...High pressures from the United States continue
to migrate across the mid latitude Atlantic ocean through early
next week. After mid week, the high pressure strengthens
significantly but also moves away from the local area. This will
maintain east or southeast trade wind flow over the area through
the entire 10 day period with patches of low level moisture. A
front will approach the area late in the period. But any passage
would happen after 15 February.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The MIMIC product showed Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands entering a somewhat drier air mass as trade wind
flow continues. And showers coverage has been less than the
previous night. A few showers were able to bring at least a trace
to eastern and northeastern Puerto Rico. The GFS shows that
moisture will increase through this evening and will increase
again after Sunday morning to peak on Monday morning. Also mid-
levels are no longer consistently dry, so despite the lower half
of the atmospheric column being barely more unstable than the
moist adiabatic lapse rate expect some showers consistent with our
usual diurnal pattern. Winds will increase somewhat now through
Tuesday but as the front approaches late next week winds will
diminish considerably. Overall no dramatic changes are expected
for the next 5 to 10 days except that a pre-frontal boundary
passing or perhaps simply forming late next week over the area
will usher in somewhat cooler weather that may be noticeable after
southeast wind flow and above normal temperatures for the north
coast.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected for the next 24 hours across the local
terminals except TJMZ and possibly TJBQ where MVFR conds are psbl
btwn 04/17Z and 04/21Z. Fair wx expected in the morning with brief -
SHRA. However, SHRA are expected to develop over the interior and
western sections of PR after 04/17z, affecting mainly TJMZ/TJBQ.
Also, SHRA streaming from the Luquillo MTN Range can affect the
vicinity of TJSJ. SFC winds will be light and easterly until
04/13Z then increasing to 10-15KT from the east with sea breeze
variations.

&&

.MARINE...Currently seas remain between 3 and 6 feet across the
great majority of the forecast area, flirt with 7 feet at the
outer buoy, 41043. This is expected to continue until around mid
week. Increasing trade wind flow to our east northeast early next
week will lead to the possibilities of 7 foot seas and small craft
advisory conditions by mid week next week. For now the risk of
rip currents remains no higher than moderate.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 85 74 / 30 40 30 40
STT 84 74 85 74 / 40 30 40 30
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
108. Tropicsweatherpr
12:06 PM GMT on February 03, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
713 AM AST Fri Feb 3 2017

.SYNOPSIS...The ridge pattern is flattening aloft. Trade wind
showers at times and seasonable temperatures will continue to
prevail across the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during the
next seven days.

&&

.DISCUSSION....Instability increased somewhat across the islands
as the ridge pattern flattens. Trade winds pushed showers mainly
across the regional waters overnight into early this morning.
Some of these showers moved across the windward sections of PR and
the USVI. Shower activity in the form of streamers are expected
downwind from the U.S. Virgin Islands and across east Puerto Rico.
In addition, locally induced afternoon showers are expected across
west Puerto Rico.

Under this evolving pattern, surge of moisture embedded in the
trades will continue to increase across the local islands through
at least tomorrow. This will result in frequent passing showers
across the USVI and the eastern half of PR each day. By Sunday a
drier air mass will result in a mixture of clouds and sunshine
with little shower activity.

Trade winds will continue to enhance moisture advection across
the eastern Caribbean while weakening. A ridge pattern will build
across the forecast area and hold much of the next work week. At
lower levels, migratory surface highs across the Atlantic Ocean
will continue to promote moderate easterly winds during the next
several days.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR for much of the fcst prd at all terminals. Quick passing
-SHRA/shra possible ovr local waters and en route btw islands.
SCT-BKN cld lyrs nr FL025...FL050..FL080...few tops nr FL120. VCSH
fcst to develop ovr the interior and west sections of PR aft
03/16z, impacting mainly TJMZ where brief MVFR psbl in SHRA. L/lvl
wnds E-ESE 10-20 kts from e blo FL250. SFC wnd lgt/vrb to calm
bcmg fm E-SE..10-15 kts w/ocnl higher gusts aft 03/14z.

&&

.MARINE...Seas up to 6 feet and east winds at 10 to 15 knots are expected
to continue across most of the regional waters as the northerly
swell continued to fade and moderate easterly trade winds prevailed.
Small crafts should continue to exercise caution. There is a
moderate risk of rip currents for the majority of the north and
east facing beaches of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 84 74 / 10 30 30 40
STT 84 75 84 74 / 20 30 30 30
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
107. Tropicsweatherpr
10:30 AM GMT on February 02, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
500 AM AST Thu Feb 2 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A developing weak upper level ridge will inhibit the
vertical development of convection across the local islands. A
surface high pressure across the north central Atlantic, northeast
of the region, will continue to induce a moderate easterly trade
winds across the region for the next couple of days. Patches of
low level cloudiness and showers embedded in the trades are
expected to move occasionally across the forecast area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...As occurred in previous days, Doppler weather radar
detected isolated to scattered showers moving mainly westward
from the surrounding waters across the U.S. Virgin Islands,
Vieques, Culebra as well as across the eastern sections of Puerto
Rico. The moderate easterly trades associated with a surface high
pressure over the north central Atlantic, northeast of the region,
will continue to transport patches of low level cloudiness and
showers across the local islands and surrounding waters for the
next several days. This moisture in combination with diurnal and
local effect are expected to induce some afternoon convection
across western and interior sections of Puerto Rico. However, not
widespread or significant precipitation is expected.

A developing weak upper level ridge will inhibit the vertical
development of convection and therefore thunderstorms development
are not expected at this moment. An upper level trough to the
east of the Lesser Antilles is expected to lift northeast while
weakening today.

For the next several days an overall fair weather pattern is
expected across the region with some interruptions of cloudiness
and brief showers across the windward sections of the local
islands overnights and early in the mornings followed by some
convection during the afternoons over western and interior
sections of Puerto Rico. Not changes in this weather pattern is
expected in the foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN cld lyrs nr FL025...Fl050...FL090 en route btw
islands with VCSH psbl across the Leeward islands TCNM/TKPK and
TISX/TIST til 02/14z. VFR conditions expected at all TAF sites
through 02/23z. Brief Mtn top psbl til 02/14z due to passing low
level clds low clds and SHRA. Light and variable winds expected TO
CONTINUE TIL 02/12z, bcmg E-SE at 10 to 15 kts after 02/14z.

&&

.MARINE...Winds of 10 to 15 knots and seas up to 7 are expected
today mostly across the offshore Atlantic waters...due to the
a northwesterly swell. Therefore, a small craft advisory is in
effect. There is a high risk of rip current for the Atlantic
beaches of Puerto Rico until 6AM AST this morning.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 84 74 / 20 30 30 20
STT 85 73 84 74 / 20 30 30 20
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
106. Tropicsweatherpr
10:09 AM GMT on February 01, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
452 AM AST Wed Feb 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A mid level ridge will continue to build across the region today.
This feature will limit the vertical development of showers
across the local islands for the next couple of days. An upper
level trough to the east northeast of the local islands is
expected to lift northeastward while filling today. A surface high
pressure across the central Atlantic will continue to transport
patches of cloudiness and showers across the region for the next
several days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Doppler weather radar detected isolated to scattered showers
moving mainly westward from the surrounding waters across the U.S.
Virgin Islands, Vieques, Culebra as well as across the eastern
sections of Puerto Rico. The easterly trade winds associated with
a surface high pressure over the central Atlantic will continue
to transport patches of low level cloudiness and showers across
the local islands for the next several days. The available low
level moisture in combination with diurnal and local effect are
expected to induce some afternoon convection across western and
interior sections of Puerto Rico. However, not widespread or
significant precipitation is expected.

A mid level ridge over the region will inhibit the vertical
development of the showers and therefore thunderstorms
development are not expected at this moment. An upper level trough
to the east of the region is expected to lift northeast while
filling today and tonight. A weak frontal boundary north of the
region will provide some instability to aid in the development of
Showers across western and interior Puerto Rico this afternoon.


For the next several days an overall fair weather
pattern is expected across the region with some interruptions of
cloudiness and brief showers across the windward sections of the
local islands overnights and early in the mornings followed by
some convection during the afternoons over western and interior
sections of Puerto Rico.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISO-SCT SHRA expected through 01/12Z across the local flying area
will likely cause VCSH across most of the local terminals except
TJMZ and TJPS. SHRA becoming more ISOLD after 01/12Z but still
brief VCSH are possible. Winds will increase slightly after 01/12Z
to 10-15 KT but continued easterly with sea breeze variations.
SCT SHRA expected across western PR after 01/16Z possibly causing
VCSH at TJMZ and TJBQ.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds of 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15-20 knots tonight and
seas increasing up to 7 today mostly across the Atlantic waters are
expected across the local waters...due to the arrival of a
northerly swell. Therefore, a small craft advisory is in effect.
There is a high risk of rip current for the Atlantic beaches of
Puerto Rico.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 84 74 / 20 20 40 20
STT 85 73 84 74 / 20 30 40 20
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
105. Tropicsweatherpr
9:57 AM GMT on January 31, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
445 AM AST Tue Jan 31 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will remain anchored across the north
central Atlantic for the next several days but will continue to
spread westwards and north of the area through Friday. This will
maintain a gradually increasing light to moderate easterly wind
flow. A broad mid to upper level ridge will continue to build
across the northeastern Caribbean through the end of the week.
This will support upper level subsidence and strengthen the cap
inversion across the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Recent satellite imagery and doppler weather radar as well as
latest model guidance, continued to suggest increasing cloudiness
as another surge of trade wind moisture made its way across the
region this morning. This has brought periods of light to moderate
showers across the coastal waters and will allow sufficient low
level moisture convergence for afternoon shower development. The
early morning showers will be focused over the coastal waters and
parts of the east sections of Puerto Rico and the surrounding
islands. Meanwhile, afternoon showers should develop mainly over
parts of the central interior and west sections of PR including
isolated areas n the San Juan metro. Rainfall accumulation are
still however expected to be minimal and of short duration.

For the rest of the week...expect an overall fair weather pattern
however the moderate easterly trade winds will continue to transport
shallow low level moisture with periods of isolated to scattered
showers across the area from time to time. This will result in a
mixture of sunshine and clouds with brief passing showers each
day.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions are expected across the local area.
Isold shra are possible over the ern TAF sites, but no significant
impact on operations expected. Sfc winds will continue from the east
to southeast at 10-14 kts with higher gusts then decreasing slightly
overnight.

&&

.MARINE... Winds and Seas should be 10 to 15 knots and between
2-5 feet early today but gradually increasing to 15 to 20 knots
and 4-6 feet later this afternoon and tonight due to the tightening
of the local pressure gradient and the arrival of a northerly swell.
Moderate risk of rip currents will continue mainly across the north
and east facing beaches of the islands.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 73 86 74 / 20 20 20 20
STT 83 73 84 74 / 30 30 30 20
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
104. Tropicsweatherpr
10:10 AM GMT on January 30, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
456 AM AST Mon Jan 30 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure across the central Atlantic
will shift eastward today as a weak cold front will move across
the western Atlantic. This will help create weak troughiness across
the region and also diminish the local trade winds through Tuesday.
The high pressure ridge will again reestablish north of the area
during the latter parts of the week. Broad mid to upper level high
pressure will also remain in place across the central Atlantic to
maintain an overall dry and subsident pattern aloft for the next
several days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Winds were calm to light and variable across the
islands overnight, but are expected to become more southeasterly
during the rest of the day except for local sea breeze variations
in some areas. A fairly dry airmass will remain in place across
the region, however the prevailing easterly trades will bring a
small surge of low to mid level moisture across the region by later
this afternoon and during the early evening. This moisture transport
along with diurnal and local effects will lead to some brief showers
across portions of the islands. No significant rainfall accumulations
is anticipated across the region. The prevailing southeast to south
low level wind flow will bring warmer temperatures across the northern
half of PR. Therefore expect afternoon high temperatures to be slightly
warmer than normal in some areas. However the expected increase in
afternoon cloudiness may limit the daytime heating.

For the long term ...winds will again become more easterly and slightly
increase by Wednesday as the surface high will reestablish and spread
north of the region. This will again result in the continued transport
of shallow low to mid leve moisture fragment across the regional waters
and portions of the islands from time to time. For the most part expect
mostly fair weather conditions to prevail for the next several days
with no significant weather feature in sight.

&&

.AVIATION...VCSH are possible across the Leewards, USVI TAF and TJSJ
sites until 30/16Z. Mostly VFR conditions expected across the rest
of the local flying area during the morning hours. After 30/18Z VCSH
are expected over TJMZ and TJBQ, but no significant impact on
operations expected. Winds ESE 15-20KT with occasional gusts and sea
breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...Seas were up to 5 feet are offshore and less than 4 feet
over the near shore waters. Expect little change today and Tuesday
with easterly winds between 10 to 15 knots. By midweek...winds and
seas are so far forecast to increase to up to 7 feet as the local
pressure gradient tightens and a northerly swell is forecast to arrive
across the local Atlantic waters. By then small craft advisories may
be required for portions of the local waters.

&&


THE SAN JUAN AREA/PR CLIMATE NORMALS FOR TODAY

NORMAL RECORD YEAR
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 83 89 1998
MINIMUM TEMPERATURE (F) 72 63 1965


SUNRISE AND SUNSET FOR SAN JUAN PR:

JANUARY 30 2017.......SUNRISE 658 AM AST SUNSET 617 PM AST

JANUARY 31 2017.......SUNRISE 658 AM AST SUNSET 618 PM AST

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 87 74 / 30 10 20 20
STT 82 73 84 74 / 30 20 20 20
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
103. Tropicsweatherpr
10:34 AM GMT on January 29, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
603 AM AST Sun Jan 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Upper level trough over the Northeast Caribbean will hold
through Tuesday. Mid level ridge has moved over the Central Atlantic.
At low levels...surface high pressure northeast of the region will
strengthen over the next few days. Under this pattern...moisture will
deepen across the local area through at least midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Satellite derived precipitable water analysis indicated
a band of moisture moving across the local area during the overnight
hours. As a result...scattered showers were affecting the local
waters and portions of Eastern Puerto Rico...Culebra and Vieques
since midnight. Only light rainfall amounts have been observed
with this shower activity. Minimum temperatures ranged in the mid
60s to low 70s across the interior while coastal locations experienced
temps from mid 70s to around 80 degrees.

A generally fair weather conditions will prevail across the local
islands the rest of the morning as an area of drier air mass will
spread over the islands. Then...another band of moisture will
move over local region this afternoon. Moisture advection will
combine with the sea breeze convergence to produce scattered
showers across the local Atlantic Waters and portions of North and
Northwest Puerto Rico during the afternoon hours.

Decent moisture and high convective instability will prevail over
the next 48 hours due to the influence of the upper level trough.
Then...a frontal boundary will approach to the islands by midweek.
Although the front will remain north of the area, the pre-frontal
trough will bring additional rounds of scattered showers the
second part of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected across the local area for
the next 24 hours. However, ISOLD-SCT SHRA across the local area
will cause VCSH over the Leeward, USVI and TJSJ taf sites during the
rest of the morning hours. After 29/16Z VCSH are expected over TJMZ
and TJBQ, but no significant impact on operations expected. Winds
increasing after 29/13Z to 15-20KT with occasional gusts from the E
to ESE with sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...Winds and seas will increase slightly today as surface
high pressure builds over the Central Atlantic. Seas to 3-5 feet
are expected across the nearshore waters and seas of 4-6 feet across
the offshore waters. Similar marine conditions will prevail through
midweek. However...no Small Craft Advisory is anticipated over
the next 5 days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 75 85 74 / 20 20 20 20
STT 83 74 82 73 / 20 30 30 20
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
102. Tropicsweatherpr
10:32 AM GMT on January 28, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
536 AM AST Sat Jan 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Mid level ridge will continue over the area through
the rest of the weekend as it moves over the Central Atlantic
through early next week. TUTT is forecast to move northeast of
the area by Monday. Surface high pressure will continue to build
across the Central Atlantic and into the Eastern Atlantic by mid
week next week as polar trof and associated frontal boundary moves
over the Western Atlantic. This will result in an east to
southeasterly trade wind flow for the next several days.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Mostly clear skies and limited shower activity was
observed during the overnight hours across the forecast area.
Showers were increasing late in the morning hours across the
offshore Atlantic waters to the northwest of the forecast area.
Temperatures were in the high 50s to low 60s across the higher
elevations and in the low 70s across the coastal areas of Puerto
Rico. In the U.S. Virgin Islands, overnight temps were in the low
70s. Winds were light and variable over land areas. However,
steering winds carrying the showers over the waters were from the
E-ESE around 10 knots.

For the rest of the morning hours mostly sunny skies are expected.
Later in the afternoon, a few clouds and light showers are
expected to develop from streamers off the USVI and over portions
of the north/northwest sections of PR. Trade wind showers are
expected to return during the overnight hours. Similar conditions
are expected on Sunday. By early next week, moisture is forecast
to increase over the area, as ridge aloft and surface high
pressure shifts further east across the Atlantic waters and a
weak TUTT establishes to the northeast of the forecast area.
Steering southeasterly winds will prevail through at least Tuesday.
However, at the moment this only favors a slight increase in
diurnal shower development over the interior and northwestern
sections of PR. Also, trade wind showers over the waters are
expected to move from time to time over portions of the islands
through much of next week.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds at all terminals during the forecast period.
Some clouds and scattered showers will move into the flying area
from the east after 18Z. In addition, sea breezes across western
PR this afternoon will help in the development of SHRA near TJMZ
and TJBQ between 18Z-22Z. East to southeast winds of 10-15 kt will
prevail below FL150.


&&

.MARINE...Northerly swell is fading away. Latest buoy readings as
of 5 AM are indicating seas under 4 feet across the coastal waters
of the islands. There is a moderate risk of rip currents across
much of the Atlantic beaches of the islands and the southern coast
of St. Croix. Seas are expected to range between 3-5 feet across
the offshore waters and 2-4 feet across the near shore waters
today. As winds increase between 15-20 knots from the east-
southeast tonight into Sunday...seas are expected to increase
between 4-6 feet across much of the regional waters and small
craft operators should exercise caution for the next few days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 74 87 74 / 30 20 20 10
STT 84 74 84 74 / 30 20 20 20
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
101. Tropicsweatherpr
10:01 AM GMT on January 27, 2017
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
550 AM AST Fri Jan 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Mid level ridge located west of the region will expand
over the Northeast Caribbean and the Tropical Atlantic through Saturday.
As the ridge builds over the area...dry and stable conditions will
prevail aloft. A few upper level short-wave troughs will swing
across the local area between Sunday and early next week...
increasing the instability across the local islands. The overall
moisture transport will be enhanced the first part of next week as
a trough pattern establishes across the Western Atlantic.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Surface high pressure north of the islands will
push the remnants the old frontal boundary over the U.S. Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico later today. As a result...scattered
showers will affect the local islands at times. Winds will become
southeast this afternoon as surface high pressure relocates over
the Central Atlantic. This will result in warmer temperatures
along Northern Puerto Rico and scattered convection over Northwest
Puerto Rico this afternoon. At this time...no significant rainfall
accumulation is anticipated with the remnants of the front as mid
level ridge will inhibit deep convection across the islands today
and Saturday.

Weather conditions will become more favorable for showers early
next week as a few short-wave troughs move over the local region.
As a result...moisture transport will be enhanced between Sunday
and Monday under the influence of the upper troughs. Operational
models continue to suggest that this wetter pattern will likely
persist through at least midweek next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions are expected across all terminals
during the next 24 hours. However, fragmented clouds and SHRA
embedded on trade winds could create brief MVFR cigs and -RA periods
across the Leeward/USVI terminals through the morning hours. Similar
conditions are expected after 16z across the PR terminals as SHRA
develops over the mountain ranges. Low level winds should prevail
from the east at 10-15 kts with sea breeze variations after 14z.

&&

.MARINE...Local buoy observations show the overall seas subsiding
to 3-5 feet across most of the coastal waters. The NW swell peaked
yesterday, however seas up to 6 feet still possible across the offshore
Atlantic waters through tonight. Marine conditions will continue to
improve through Saturday. Winds will increase slightly again Sunday
and Monday creating seas of 4-6 feet once again across the offshore
waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 75 86 73 / 10 10 10 10
STT 83 74 85 74 / 10 10 20 20
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
100. Tropicsweatherpr
10:18 AM GMT on January 26, 2017
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
608 AM AST Thu Jan 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Mid level ridge located over the Bahamas will move
across the region during the next few days. As the ridge builds
over the area...trade wind cap will strengthen over the region
today. This will limit the potential of showers across the islands.
At low levels...surface high pressure north of the region is
producing a moderate northeast flow across the local islands.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Surface high pressure north of the islands has
pushed the remnants the frontal boundary over the Caribbean
Waters. As a result...fair weather pattern is prevailing across
the local islands this morning. Satellite imagery shows mostly
clear skies over Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Dry
advection and the presence of the mid level ridge will limit the
shower development across the forecast area over the next 24 hours.

Winds will become more easterly as surface high pressure relocates
over the Central Atlantic between Friday and Saturday. Easterly
winds will push the remnants of the old frontal boundary over the
region. This will increase the cloud and shower coverage on Friday.
Although...no significant rainfall accumulation is anticipated with
the remnants of the front...scattered showers will affect the islands
at times.

Trough pattern will establish over the Western Atlantic between
Sunday and early next week. As a result...moisture and instability
will increase across the forecast area. This will result in additional
cloudiness and scattered showers across Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands the first part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions are expected across all terminals
during the next 24 hours. Low level winds will continue from the
northeast at 8-14 kts. Sea breeze variations expected at JMZ/JPS
after 14z.

&&

.MARINE...Local buoys continue to indicate a NW swell of 5-7 feet
across the Atlantic Waters. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory
continues in effect for the Offshore Atlantic Waters. In addition,
this NW swell is producing a high risk of rip currents along the
beaches of Northwest and North PR, Culebra and Saint Thomas.
Marine conditions will gradually subside across the local islands
during the weekend as the NW swell fades out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 84 75 / 10 10 20 10
STT 83 73 83 74 / 10 20 20 10
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
99. Tropicsweatherpr
9:52 AM GMT on January 25, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
543 AM AST Wed Jan 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Cold front just northwest of the region will move over
the local islands today. Clouds and scattered showers will affect
the local islands through tonight. Then...high pressure will build
in the wake of the front...bringing a fair weather pattern to the
local region through the end of the week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery as well as the latest surface
analysis showed a frontal boundary located over the Mona Passage
this morning. This front will move across the local region through
tonight...increasing the cloudiness and shower activity over
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. No significant rainfall
accumulations are anticipated with this feature...as moisture will
remain near normal levels. As the front crosses the islands, a
moderate northerly flow will establish across the local area.

Surface high pressure and a mid level ridge located over Cuba
will expand northeastward over the Western Atlantic on Thursday.
This will result in drier conditions across the Northeast
Caribbean region Thursday and Friday. The mid level ridge will
maintain a stable atmosphere and rainfall amounts will be limited.
Winds will return to the east on Friday and east-southeast on
Saturday. As the wind shift, warmer temperatures between 85-88
degrees are possible once again from Friday through early next
week. Moisture will likely surge on Sunday as an area of moisture
approaches the region from the east.

&&

.AVIATION...Weak front moving from the Atlantic waters into the
local flying area will create brief periods of -RA/VCSH and tempo
MVFR cigs across the west and northern terminals of PR through the
morning hours. Similar conditions expected to spread across the rest
of the terminals through the afternoon hours. Winds expected to
continue WNW around 10 kts thru 16z...then NNE with sea breeze
variations across southern terminals of PR.

&&

.MARINE...NW swell will bring hazardous seas across the offshore
Atlantic Waters later today. Seas are expected to build to 5-7
feet across the local Atlantic Waters between this afternoon and
Thursday. As a result...a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for
the Offshore Atlantic Waters from this afternoon. Seas across the
coastal waters of Puerto Rico are forecast between 3-5 feet
through the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 74 83 73 / 40 20 10 10
STT 83 73 83 72 / 40 20 10 20
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
98. Tropicsweatherpr
10:05 AM GMT on January 24, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
434 AM AST Tue Jan 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Surface low across the western Atlantic will promote
a light to moderate southerly wind flow today, then a surface high
moves in just north of the local islands, shifting winds to a
northerly direction on Wednesday. Relatively dry air expected
today with an increase in moisture mainly for the USVI. Upper
trough developing to our west by Wednesday. Slightly warmer than
normal daytime temps expected today across the San Juan area and
other portions of the northern half of PR due to dry air and
southerly winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Fair weather prevailed overnight across the local
area with a light and variable wind and variably cloudy skies.
Overnight temperatures dipped into the mid 60s to lower 70s
across the lower elevations and around 60 to the mid 60s across
the higher elevations. For today, we can expect southerly winds
once again and therefore warmer than normal temperatures for
portions of the northern coastal municipalities of PR including
the San Juan Metro Area, where temperatures are expected to reach
the upper 80s today. The rest of the local area should remain with
temps in the low to mid 80s. Very little shower activity is
expected today since the airmass is relatively dry, however there
is some moisture moving in from the south but it appears that it
will stay over the USVI briefly then move away. This may cause
isolated showers in the afternoon and then scattered showers
tonight around the local waters and particularly just to the east
of the USVI.

Surface low across the western Atlantic is causing the southerly
wind flow today, then there is a SFC high that will move over the
Bahamas on Wednesday. This will cause winds to shift direction
from southerly to westerly late tonight into Wednesday morning
then to northerly winds on Wednesday afternoon. This rare wind
shift for our area will also bring a patch of moisture on
Wednesday, which means that scattered showers are expected across
the local waters tonight into Wednesday morning then scattered
showers expected across the northern USVI and the northern half of
PR. However, the accumulations are expected to be modest.

For the latter part of the week, the light to moderate winds will
be from the NE on Thursday and mainly easterly by Friday.
Relatively dry airmass to prevail on those days as well so the
shower activity is expected to be minimal. In fact, predominantly
fair weather, with brief moments of clouds and showers, is
expected into the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will continue to prevail across all
terminals through 24/24z. Light southerly or variable winds expected
early this morning, becoming mostly S-SW at 5-10 kts aft 14z.


&&

.MARINE...North northeast swell continue to affect the local
Atlantic waters and passages. Small craft operators should
exercise caution as seas are between 4 to 6 feet and winds up to
20 knots. A slightly stronger northwesterly swell is expected to
invade the local waters by Wednesday night, causing an increase in
seas and possibly meeting small craft advisory criteria. There is
a high risk of rip currents today for the north and northwest
coast of PR and Culebrita beach in Culebra.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 75 82 72 / 20 20 30 30
STT 83 74 81 72 / 20 20 30 30
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
97. Tropicsweatherpr
10:19 AM GMT on January 23, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
442 AM AST Mon Jan 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Weak surface high across the central Atlantic and a
surface low across the western Atlantic will promote a light to
moderate southerly wind flow today and Tuesday. Relatively dry
air expected today with an increase in moisture on Tuesday, mainly
for the USVI. Upper ridge to move in today, keeping a stable
atmosphere. Slightly warmer daytime temps expected today across
the San Juan area due to dry air and southerly winds.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Fair weather prevailed overnight across the local
area with a light and variable wind and variably cloudy skies.
Overnight temperatures dipped into the mid 60s to lower 70s
across the lower elevations and into the upper 50s to low 60s
across the higher elevations. For today, the local pattern is
expected to present a change when we compare to what we have been
observing the past several days. Southerly winds are expected
today which will cause rather warm temperatures across the San
Juan metro area, portions of northeastern PR, and the north
central sections of PR with max daytime temps into the upper 80s
possible, the rest of the local area should remain with temps in
the low to mid 80s. Very little shower activity is expected today
since the airmass is relatively dry, however there is some limited
moisture in the lower levels and the combination of the limited
moisture with the daytime heating and the sea breeze convergence
will give us a chance of rain across the NW quadrant of PR this
afternoon with only a slight chance of showers elsewhere.

Higher moisture is expected to move in on Tuesday but mainly for
the USVI as the SFC low across the western Atlantic moves
northeast. This will increase the chances of showers for the USVI, also
cause winds to shift direction from southerly to westerly late
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning then to northerly winds on
Wednesday afternoon. Even with this rather rare wind shift for our
area, the chance of rain remains mainly for the northern half of
PR, the USVI and the Atlantic waters, meaning that there is no
real significant change in the areas with higher chances of rain
in the early morning hours of Wednesday and on Wednesday
afternoon.

For the latter part of the week, the light to moderate winds will
be from the NE on Thursday and mainly easterly by Friday.
Relatively dry airmass to prevail on those days as well so the
shower activity is expected to be minimal.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds will prevail thru the forecast period. Shower
development will remain possible across NW PR after 23/16Z which may
result in VCSH at TJBQ. Shower activity expected to increase across
the Leeward terminals aft 24/00z. Light southerly winds with sea
breeze variations are expected today.

&&

.MARINE...A moderate northerly swell will continue affecting the
local Atlantic waters and Caribbean passages over the next few
days. Seas will build to 4-6 feet by midweek as a northwest swell
reaches the regional waters. At this time, the local buoys are
reporting seas of 3 to 4 feet across the nearshore waters and an
estimated 4 to 5 feet across the local Atlantic offshore waters.
Having said that, the local breaking waves across northern and
northwestern PR could be between 5 and 7 feet, which will cause a
high risk of rip currents across many of the Atlantic facing
beaches of Puerto Rico. There is a moderate risk of rip currents
for many of the remaining beaches in PR, Vieques, Culebra, and the
USVI.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 73 90 75 / 10 0 30 30
STT 81 74 82 75 / 20 20 30 30
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
96. Tropicsweatherpr
10:36 AM GMT on January 22, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
530 AM AST Sun Jan 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A mid level ridge will prevail through much of the
forecast period, with a brief weakening expected on Tuesday as
a mid to upper level trough moves north of the area. The mid to
upper level trough and associated surface boundary will result in
moisture advection Tuesday-early Wednesday. Therefore, continue
to expect a seasonable weather pattern across Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands with an increase in passing showers on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...As the mid level ridge holds across the forecast
area, a generally fair and mainly stable weather pattern will
continue to prevail with a few passing showers possible across
windward areas. The ridge will briefly erode as a broad mid to
upper level trough moves north of the area. The aforementioned
mid to upper level trough and associated surface boundary will
result in moisture advection Tuesday and possibly Wednesday.
However, the bulk of moisture is expected to remain over waters
and east of the forecast area. At lower levels, a high pressure
north of the area will continue to promote a gentle east northeast
wind flow today. Surface winds are expected to become southerly on
Monday as the surface high pressure moves into the central
Atlantic and the boundary approaches from the west. Therefore,
continue to expect a seasonable weather pattern across Puerto Rico
and the U.S. Virgin Islands with limited shower activity through
the forecast period. The chance of passing showers will slightly
increase on Tuesday. Temperatures may increase Monday and Tuesday
under the southerly wind flow.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds will prevail thru the forecast period.
SCT SHRA expected across central/western PR after 22/16Z which
could cause VCSH at TJBQ, TJPS, and TJMZ. SCT SHRA also expected
over the waters and near TISX after 22/16Z. Winds from the ENE at
5- 10 KT with sea breeze variations today.

&&

.MARINE...Seas will remain to 3-5 feet today. However...a northwest
swell will reach the local waters...with seas building to 4-6
feet by midweek. There is a high risk of rip currents along the
Atlantic shorelines of Puerto Rico. The high risk of rip currents
will continue to prevail during the next few days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 85 74 / 20 20 30 20
STT 83 72 84 75 / 20 40 40 40
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
95. Tropicsweatherpr
10:27 AM GMT on January 21, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
540 AM AST Sat Jan 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A seasonable weather pattern will continue to prevail
across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through at least
early next week with a few light passing showers possible. A mid
to upper level ridge will build across the northeast Caribbean as
a short wave trough continues to move east southeast and away from
the forecast area today. The ridge aloft will hold through early
next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A mid to upper level ridge will continue to build
across the forecast area as a short wave trough moves east southeast
and away from the northeast Caribbean today. The ridge aloft will
hold through early next week, resulting in a seasonable weather
pattern today through Monday. At lower levels, a high pressure
north of the area will continue to promote a gentle north to
northeast wind flow. Surface winds are expected to become southerly
on Monday as the surface high pressure moves into the central
Atlantic and a frontal boundary approaches from the west. The
frontal boundary and associated mid to upper level trough will
erode the ridge pattern to result in moisture advection from the
east southeast. This will increase the chance of rainfall late
Monday-early Wed.

A drier weather pattern will prevail Thu and into the upcoming
weekend as a mid level ridge builds across the area and a
surface high establishes across the west and central Atlantic.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will continue across the local
terminals during the next 24 hours as fair weather is expected
to prevail. Calm to Light and VRB winds expected through
21/13Z...becoming light and northerly thereafter with sea breeze
variations. No significant weather hazard expected.

&&

.MARINE...Seas are expected to build early next week but remaining
below the Small Craft Advisory criteria. There is a moderate risk
of rip currents along the Atlantic shoreline of Puerto Rico,
Culebra and St Thomas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 73 82 74 / 30 30 30 20
STT 83 70 83 73 / 30 30 30 20
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
94. Tropicsweatherpr
10:15 AM GMT on January 20, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
445 AM AST Fri Jan 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Mid to upper level trough will shift further east of the region
today through Saturday as an upper level high pressure ridge is
expected to build over the western Atlantic then spread across
the region by Sunday and Monday. In the meantime weak a mid level
perturbation is to move just north of the region today and Saturday.

Surface high pressure over the western Atlantic and an area of
Low pressure across the north central Atlantic will create a very
light north to northeast trade wind flow across the region today
through Saturday. The remnants of a cold front is forecast to slowly
sink southwards across the local Atlantic waters Saturday through
Sunday. A high pressure ridge will then spread across the west and
southwest Atlantic. Local winds are to then become more southerly
by Sunday and Monday as this high pressure ridge will sink farther
south across the northeastern caribbean.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Mostly clear skies and little or no shower activity
was observed of reported over land area. light to moderate showers
were noted across the offshore waters and just northwest of PR.
these showers were slowly rifting southwards across the coastal
waters. Winds were light and variable to calm in most areas. Early
morning low temperatures were in mid 60s to near 70 degrees along
coastal areas and between 55-60 degrees in higher elevations and
valleys.

Mostly fair skies and pleasant seasonal weather conditions can be
expected today across most of the region. A few light showers may
form across parts of the islands but activity if any will be of
short duration.

For the weekend and into early next week, patches of low level
moisture along a weakening cold front/frontal boundary move across
the region and aid in the development of some showers across the
northern half and parts of the interior sections of Puerto rico
especially during the early morning and afternoon hours. Lesser
shower activity is expected across the remainder of the islands.
No significant rainfall or accumulations is expected through the
weekend. The low level easterly winds are to become more southerly
by late Sunday and into early next week resulting in slightly
warmer temperatures to the region.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will continue across the local terminals
during the next 24 hours as fair weather is expected to prevail.
Calm to Light and VRB winds expected through 20/13Z...becoming light
and northerly thereafter with sea breeze variations. No significant
weather hazard expected.

&&

.MARINE...Marine conds will continue to improve today and into the
upcoming weekend as Seas will slowly subside to between 1-4 feet
nearshore and 3-5 feet offshore and local passages. A gentle
north to northeast wind flow will prevail today, becoming more
southerly by late Sunday and continuing into early next week.
There are hazardous impacts for the coastal waters today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 72 82 71 / 0 30 30 40
STT 80 70 82 70 / 0 30 30 40
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
93. Tropicsweatherpr
10:25 AM GMT on January 19, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
600 AM AST Thu Jan 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A mid to upper level ridge is building over the region. At the
surface, a low pressure centered over the Central Atlantic
continues to weaken a surface high pressure across the
southwestern Atlantic. As a result, winds are expected to continue
calm to light and variable. Mostly clear skies with pleasant and
cool temperatures were registered across the islands overnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite imagery detected a dry air mass filtering across the
region overnight, this air mass limited cloudiness and shower
activity across the islands of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands. Weather stations across the islands registered coastal
minimum temperatures between low and mid 60s and across the
mountains and valleys in the low 50s.

In general, fair weather conditions with mostly sunny skies and
no shower activity is expected today. As the surface low pressure
moves across the western Atlantic the pressure gradient is
forecast to relax. Winds are expected to diminish considerable
becoming calm to light and variable through the upcoming weekend.
By the weekend, a frontal boundary is expected to move close to
the local islands. As a result, pleasant minimum temperatures are
expected to continue during this period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected to continue across all
terminals through the forecast period. Limited shower activity is
forecast across the local waters. Low level winds will continue
from the ENE at 10-15 kts with lighter land breezes after 19/00z.

&&

.MARINE...
Marine conditions will continue to improve the rest of the week.
Mariners can expect seas between 2 and 5 feet across the coastal
waters and winds around 10 knots. For the beach goers, there is a
moderate risk of rip current across the local beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 69 83 71 / 10 10 20 40
STT 80 70 79 71 / 10 20 20 20
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
92. Tropicsweatherpr
10:26 AM GMT on January 18, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
602 AM AST Wed Jan 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough aloft will continue its move across the region. A surface
low pressure exiting the eastern U.S. will continue to weaken a
surface high pressure across the southwestern Atlantic. This
pressure systems will induce a moderate east northeast wind flow
across the local islands and surrounding waters, which in turn
will push patches of low level moisture with embedded clouds and
showers across the U.S. Virgin Islands and the northern and
eastern sections of Puerto Rico at times.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As a surge of moisture moved over the region overnight. This
surge produced scattered showers, but due to their rapid movement
the rainfall totals were minimals. Then, satellite imagery
indicated the intrusion of dry air across the region, producing a
diminish in shower activity across the islands of Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands early this morning. For the rest of this
morning and under the prevailing northeasterly wind, isolated
passing showers can not be ruled out across the windward sections
of PR and the USVI.

A surface low pressure is forecast to move across the western
Atlantic by Thursday. The pressure gradient is forecast to relax
as this low system move eastward across the Atlantic waters.
Also, as mentioned in the previous discussion, winds speed are
expected to diminish considerable becoming more from the east late
in the week and during the upcoming weekend. As this happens, a
frontal boundary is expected to move close to the local islands.
The proximity of this frontal boundary combined with a dry cool
air mass could result in cooler pleasant temperatures by the end
of the week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all
TAF sites through at least 18/22z. Some passing showers are expected
to affect TIST, TISX, TJSJ and TJBQ terminals from time to time. Low
level winds will be mainly northeast at 10 to 15 kts with higher
gusts.

&&

.MARINE...
Marine conditions are expected to slowly improve across the
region today. Mariners can expect seas up to 6 feet and winds
around 18 knots mainly across the Atlantic waters and the
Caribbean Passages. High risk of rip currents are in effect until
this afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 69 82 71 / 40 0 20 10
STT 80 72 79 71 / 40 20 20 20
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
91. Tropicsweatherpr
10:03 AM GMT on January 17, 2017
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
520 AM AST Tue Jan 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure across the western Atlantic will move
east as a intense low pressure system exits the U.S. east coast
Wednesday into Thursday. A east to east northeast wind flow will
continue to dominates the local region. Winds will diminish
considerably next few days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Periods of passing showers prevailed across the
local islands overnight. Showers affected the eastern half of
Puerto Rico with rainfall accumulation less than half inch. An
east to east northeast wind flow will continue to prevail today.
These winds will transport showers across the region from time to
time. Local area will continue to be dominated by a high pressure
system which is located north of the area over the western
Atlantic. This high pressure is expected to weaken next couple of
days as a deep surface low pressure area moves across the western
Atlantic, eroding the high pressure. As a result, winds are
expected to diminish significantly especially after Thursday. No
major changes in the weather pattern is expected next several days
as relatively dry weather conditions are expected to continue
across the local area.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions are expected across the local
flying area however, a few passing -SHRA/SHRA expected across TAF
sites at times. Winds expected from the E/NE at around 10 kt
increasing at 15 to 20 kt and gusty aft 17/12z.

&&

.MARINE...Seas will continue to gradually subside later today into
Wednesday. Seas up to 7 feet and winds up to 20 knots are expected
to continue through Wednesday morning.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 73 81 71 / 30 30 30 10
STT 84 72 82 70 / 30 30 20 20
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
90. Tropicsweatherpr
10:13 AM GMT on January 16, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
555 AM AST Mon Jan 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure across the western Atlantic will
maintain a fresh northeast wind flow across the local region
through Wednesday. High pressure will weaken at the end of the
week as a deep surface low pressure moves across the western
Atlantic.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Passing showers were observed across the local area
overnight. Most shower activity was observed across the Caribbean
coastal waters. Local area continue to be dominated by a surface
high pressure system which is located across the western Atlantic.
This high pressure system will continue to produce fresh northeast
winds across the local area through at least Wednesday. Therefore,
passing showers will continue to affect the local area from time
to time.

By the later part of the work week, the aformentioned high
pressure system is expected to weaken, which will allow for a
relax in the pressure gradient. As a result, winds will diminish
considerably by Friday. Under a mid to upper level ridge,
relatively fair weather conditions are expected without any
significant weather events affecting the region. Temperatures will
remain very pleasant, with minimum temperatures expected to drop
to the mid to upper 50s by the later part of the work week, as
clear skies are anticipated and winds will be light and variable.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected through the forecast
period. Some passing showers are expected over TIST and TJSJ from
time to time. Low level winds will continue mainly ENE at 10 to 15
kts with higher gusts, mainly in showers.

&&

.MARINE...Latest buoy observations are showing seas between 5 to 7
feet with occasional seas up to 8 feet mainly across the offshore
Atlantic waters. Seas are expected to diminish gradually next few
days. However, marine conditions will continue hazardous through
at least Wednesday. High Surf advisory was cancelled as breaking
waves of 10 feet are no longer expected. Small Craft advisories
will continue in effect through at least Wednesday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 74 82 73 / 40 30 30 20
STT 84 72 83 71 / 40 30 30 20

&&
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
89. Tropicsweatherpr
10:15 AM GMT on January 15, 2017
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
552 AM AST Sun Jan 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Broad surface high will continue to dominate the local
weather pattern for the next several days. A weak area of low
pressure will move quickly across the Atlantic as the surface high
continues to build having little to no impact on the local weather
conditions. Another surface low and associated frontal boundary is
forecast to reach the local area by the end of next week. Short
wave trof will continue through Tuesday as mid to upper level
ridge builds from the west.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Partly cloudy skies were observed across the islands
as trade wind showers on a brisk northeasterly flow moved from
time to time over portions of the U.S. Virgin Islands and the
northern half of Puerto Rico. Rainfall amounts were generally
less than a quarter of an inch. For today, forecast soundings are
indicating PWAT values under 1 inch as a dry mid level air mass
filters across the region from 12z-00z. Therefore, mostly sunny
skies with a few clouds can be expected today across the region.

As the strong surface high continues to build across the western
Atlantic and into the local area...breezy condtions and seasonable
temperatures will continue for the next several days. Short wave
trof aloft is not expected to have a significant impact on the
trade wind cap. However, strong northeasterly wind flow will
continue to bring patches of low level clouds and brief showers at
times across the islands.

&&

.AVIATION...Shallow moist flow from NE at 15 to 25 kt will cont at
LLVLS thru 16/12z carrying small SHRA that will come into the VCNTY
of all TAF sites except TJPS. Nevertheless mostly VFR conditions
will prevail across all TAF sites except for areas of mtn
obscurations til 15/18z. Sfc winds 8 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt
psbl in SHRA. Maximum winds will be at FL400 270/90 kt at 15/06Z.

&&

.MARINE...Hazardous marine conditions will continue through at
least Wednesday as northeasterly swell and wind driven seas
slowly subsides across the Atlantic waters and passages. Life
threatening rip currents due to large breaking waves continues
across the northern beaches of the islands. Seas will continue
today between 8-10 feet and northeasterly winds around 20 knots
are also expected to continue across most of the waters.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 75 84 75 / 20 30 40 40
STT 83 75 83 75 / 20 40 40 30
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
88. Tropicsweatherpr
10:24 AM GMT on January 14, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
613 AM AST Sat Jan 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A fresh to strong northeasterly wind flow will continue to bring
patches of low level moisture, with clouds and passing showers
across the forecast region during the weekend. Most of the shower
activity is expected to focus across the U.S. Virgin Islands and
to the North of the Cordillera Central. An upper level trough is
forecast to move across the region by early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Showers embedded in the northeasterly wind flow prevailed
overnight across the local waters, the U.S. Virgin Islands and
to the north of the Cordillera Central of Puerto Rico. This
activity moved fast enough to produce less than half an inch.
However, periods of moderate to heavy rains were detected with the
Doppler Radar.

Under the fresh to strong northeasterly wind flow continue to
expect passing showers and pleasant temperatures across the
islands. This pattern is expected during the next few days, with
patches of low level moisture bringing periods of clouds and
showers over the islands. But, temperatures will begin to warm
slightly and be near normal for January. Model guidance are
indicating the arrival of an upper level trough across the region
by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all
TAF sites through at least 15/02Z. But, many fine showers moving
across the area from the northeast at 25 to 30 knots. Sfc winds 8 to
18 kt with higher gusts. Maximum winds expected 260/85 at
FL410 at 15/00Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Hazardous marine conditions continue across the Atlantic waters
and Caribbean Passages. As a result small craft, high surf and
coastal flood advisories continue in effect for various coastlines
of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Hazardous seas are
expected at least until early next week. Seas up to 12 feet with
occasional seas up to 15 feet are expected across most of the
local waters. Seas up to 6 feet are expected across the Caribbean
Coastal waters of Southern Puerto Rico. Beachgoers are urged to
avoid the northern beaches of the islands through at least early
next week. Please refer to the marine products for additional
information.

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 75 84 75 / 40 40 40 40
STT 84 73 85 75 / 30 30 30 40
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
87. Tropicsweatherpr
10:21 AM GMT on January 13, 2017
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
514 AM AST Fri Jan 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Shallow moist air will continue to move across the
forecast area through at least the next 5 days bringing isolated
to scattered showers...mainly to windward plains and slopes of the
local islands. Fresh to strong northeast flow will turn more
easterly early next week.

At upper levels...Very weak high pressure will approach the area
through Sunday morning as a jet intensifies up to 100 knots
overhead. A weak trough moves through on Monday.

At mid levels...A cut-off low northeast of the Leeward Islands
weakens into a trough that extends into the northeast Caribbean
through Tuesday. As it weakens high pressure builds over the
western Caribbean and continues into the week after next. Mid
level moisture is absent except Monday through Wednesday when
limited amounts are present.

At lower levels... High pressure will continue across the western
Atlantic through the end of next week. It does weaken somewhat
during the latter half of next week. Low pressure about 800 miles
east northeast of Fajardo, Puerto Rico will fade into a trough in
the eastern tropical Atlantic over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Numerous small showers have moved onshore in Puerto
Rico and the northern U.S. Virgin Islands with very slight
accumulations. These will continue as a band of moisture moves
into the area, spun off from the low pressure northeast of the
area that has been elongating along a northeast southwest axis
through Culebra. The best accumulations will likely be less than
one quarter inch today and will be concentrated over the mountain
interior of Puerto Rico. Shallow moisture will continue through
next week, and bands of drier air forecast by the GFS are not as
prominent during the next 5 days as they had been in prior
forecasts. So, isolated to scattered showers will continue with
periods of sun.

Winds are expected to increase through early tonight with 15 to 25
mph and gusts up to at least 30 over local waters and exposed
coastal areas of the islands. Winds slowly abate Sunday through
the end of next week as they turn more easterly early next week.


&&

.AVIATION...Showers embedded in the northeasterly trades will
continue to induce brief periods of SHRA over the Leeward, USVI and
TJSJ taf sites until at least 13/16Z. Mostly VFR conditions are
expected across the rest of the local flying area with only VCSH.
After 13/17Z some SHRA are possible across TJMZ and TJBQ. Low level
winds will continue mainly northeast at 15 to 20 kts with higher
gusts.

&&

.MARINE...Winds and seas are still forecast to peak early tonight
and then subside only slowly into next week. Small craft advisory
conditions will continue in most waters exposed to northeast swell
through mid week next week. Expect coastal flooding to peak this
morning but continue longer as seas increase during the day.
Coastal flooding is likely to return Saturday morning when tides
return to nearly the same levels as the last several days. High
surf will increase through the day and breaking waves will
approach 18 feet along many northern coasts by early tonight. As
it was said yesterday, it will be best to keep a safe distance
from the ocean today and tomorrow on the northern, northwestern
and northeastern coasts. Southern coasts will be much more
tranquil in Puerto Rico.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 76 83 75 / 50 50 60 60
STT 84 75 84 74 / 30 40 40 30
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
86. Tropicsweatherpr
10:28 AM GMT on January 12, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
517 AM AST Thu Jan 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure in the western Atlantic has driven a
cold front south of the area. Strong winds will persist into next
week with isolated to scattered showers throughout the period over
smaller islands and the mountains and windward plains of Puerto
Rico.

At upper levels...A weak ridge over the area will retrograde into
the central Caribbean by Saturday. A weak trough will pass through
on Monday with flow turning almost due north by mid week next
week.

At mid levels...A trough will extend into the eastern Caribbean on
Saturday from a dissipating cut-off low now northeast of the area
and continue through mid-week next week. High pressure just north
of Cuba will drop southward next week into the western Atlantic.
Except for a few patches of modest moisture Tuesday through
Thursday of next week, mid-level moisture will be nearly absent.

At lower levels...High pressure has driven a cold front through
the area and it is now over the open Caribbean. High pressure will
dominate the weather pattern through the end of next week. Low
pressure about 750 miles northeast of the area will sink south
through Saturday tightening gradients and keeping northeast winds
over the area strong. Patches of shallow moisture will move
through the area on strong winds this week and next week bringing
shallow, isolated to scattered showers with the best amounts over
interior Puerto Rico. Flooding should not be expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NWS doppler radar showed many small showers moving
south southwest at about 20 knots over much of the surrounding
waters and well into interior Puerto Rico. A few showers were also moving
around the U.S. Virgin Islands.

Models are showing a gradual increase in the 850 mb winds from
around 20 knots to as much as 32 knots on Friday night. This also
corresponds with an increase in the surface flow forecast. Winds
then continue at slightly reduced, but relatively strong
intensities, through Tuesday. Moisture values reached a 7-day
minimum this morning and will increase through Friday, although
precipitable water will remain under 1.5 inches for at least the
next 7 to 10 days. With similar but limited values of moisture--
mainly confined to the lowest 8000 feet of the atmosphere--showers
will be widely scattered, shallow, small in size and very brief,
with only a few hours of drier air to shut them down from time to
time. Two of those drier periods appear to occur Sunday night and
Tuesday morning, but models cannot be trusted to perfectly predict
something so ephemeral and we will not be able to trust the
timing here. The showers will yield the most over the interior
sections of Puerto Rico due to orographic forcing just as occurred
Tuesday and Wednesday, but all amounts will be light.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR expected across the local terminals with VCSH
occurring in quick passing SHRA. SFC winds will be mainly from the E
to NE at about 100-20 KT with even higher gusts. TJBQ and TJMZ may
be on the higher end of the range with winds around 20KT and gusting
to 30KT, TJPS in the lower end with winds close to 10KT and gusting
to about 15KT, the rest of the terminals will fall somewhere in
between.

&&

.MARINE...Winds and seas will increase through Friday night in our
northern waters. High tides will be in the mornings between 9 and
11 am each day through Saturday. These periods will be the time
when minor coastal flooding is likely to occur and would expect
that flooding to be the worst on Friday or Saturday mornings. For
this reason will not extend the coastal flood advisory beyond this
afternoon at 2 PM, but it may be re-issued for Friday morning.
High risk of rip currents and high surf are givens with seas
already at or above 10 feet in many Atlantic waters and passages.
Although conditions should begin to improve Saturday and Saturday
night, hazardous conditions, including small craft advisories, are
expected to continue well into the following week. For those
contemplating entering the waters, these are the most dangerous
conditions that have been seen in many months. It is best to
avoid the water or visit our sheltered beaches on the south side
of the island.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 75 83 74 / 30 50 50 50
STT 85 75 86 72 / 10 40 30 40
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
85. Tropicsweatherpr
10:34 AM GMT on January 11, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
505 AM AST Wed Jan 11 2017

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure in the western Atlantic has brought a
cold front through Puerto Rico and the U.S. Islands with strong
winds, and hazardous marine conditions that will last through at
least the end of the week.

At upper levels...A jet of up to 95 knots will prevail over the
local area through at least Sunday. High pressure will begin
ridging north over Hispaniola until a weak short wave moves
through on Monday.

At mid levels...Low pressure will cut off about 880 miles
northeast of San Juan today moving only about 400 miles southeast
through Friday sending a trough through the area. High pressure
then spreads over the area from the western Caribbean and
continues through the end of next week. Mid levels remain very dry
until Tuesday of next week.

At lower levels...A cold front has passed through the area and
north to northeast flow will continue due to persistent high
pressure in the western Atlantic. Low pressure will deepen about
880 miles northeast of San Juan and play an important role in wave
production for the area, but it will move south and dissipate by
Sunday leaving only a broad stretch of northeasterly winds around
the high by next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Winds have continued over the area`s waters with
some stronger winds making it onshore with showers. San Juan had
gusts to 37 mph overnight and 53 hundredths of an inch of rain
since 6 PM AST Tuesday. Showers will continue on the windward side
of the islands through the day with some showers able to cross
through. The back edge of the frontal band moisture is expected to
be through Puerto Rico by evening, but GFS time-height sections
over the area show rich shallow low-level moisture persisting
through much of the forecast period. Flow gradually becomes more
easterly during the next 7 days, but moisture patches continue and
will yield isolated to scattered showers. Because of the long
fetch of winds behind the front and around the high pressure
marine conditions will be the most prominent weather features
through the rest of the week. After a lull tonight, 850 mb winds
will increase to over 30 knots Friday afternoon according to the
GFS and so surface winds will follow suit to a lesser degree.
Winds gradually subside over the week following.

Expect Thursday morning to be the coolest of the next 10 days with
warming of the 1000 to 850 mb layer through Friday followed by
little change in minimum and maximum temperatures.


&&

.AVIATION...BKN-OVC cld lyrs nr Fl022...Fl050...FL080 assocd with
remnants of old frontal boundary will cont to sink southwards
across the flying area durg the nxt 24 hrs. Periods of SHRA, with
ocnl gusty northerly Sfc winds up to 30 kts mainly across the ATL
coastal water and northern half of PR and USVI til at least
11/15z. TEMPO MVFR conds psbl with the passing SHRA. Recent VAD
wind profile from the doppler weather radar TJUA suggest llvl winds
btw 15-25 kts below FL200...bcmg W and increasing with height abv
to max wnd of 70-80 kts nr FL360.

&&

.MARINE...Winds and seas will increase through Saturday with seas
of at least 12 feet in portions of the local Atlantic waters by
Saturday. This is mainly due to a second pulse of swell generated
by the low forming northeast of the area that will arrive early in
the weekend. Small Craft Advisories will remain in all exposed
waters through at least the weekend. Periods will subside from
around 12 seconds after Thursday. Rip current risk is high on
most northern beaches. Wave penetration in normally quiet passages
has been better than models have forecast and even the Vieques
buoy has been running 8-9 feet. Had to make some manual adjustment
in the grids there. Have extended Rip Current risk and high surf
out through 8 AM AST Friday morning to better reflect the
longevity of this event.

Coastal Flooding is likely with strong onshore flow and tides that
will peak at around 1.8 feet most everywhere before 8:30 AM today.
Although a secondary high tide will occur this evening it is only
about half as high. But, another similar high tide will occur
Thursday and Friday, with some threat of minor coastal flooding
on northern shores each of these mornings.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 74 82 75 / 50 20 20 20
STT 84 74 85 75 / 50 20 20 20
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
84. Tropicsweatherpr
10:22 AM GMT on January 10, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
449 AM AST Tue Jan 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A deep polar trof will continue to amplify southeastward
over the southwestern Atlantic and the local Atlantic waters today.
A surface high pressure centered over the northwest Atlantic will
push an associated weak frontal boundary, southeastward across
the local islands. After the frontal boundary passage, a strong
northeast wind flow will induce breezy conditions across the
region for the next several days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Under a northeast low level wind flow, Doppler
weather radar detected isolated to scattered showers moving
rapidly across the USVI, Vieques, Culebra as well as across the
eastern and northern sections of Puerto Rico. Due to the rapid
movement of the showers the total rainfall accumulations were
generally minimal. This activity will continue for the rest of
the morning hours. Cloudiness is expected to increase across the
region today as a weak frontal boundary moves across the region.
This moisture in combination with local effects will induce the
development of scattered showers across interior, western and
southwest sections sections of Puerto Rico this afternoon.

Latest satellites images as well as model guidance depicted
a frontal boundary extending from the Caribbean waters across
Hispaniola and then northeastward across the central Atlantic for
several hundreds miles. A surface high pressure centered over the
northwest Atlantic will push the frontal boundary across Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands today and tonight. This feature
will induce an increase in cloudiness and showers coverage across
the region until at least Wednesday.

A moderate to strong northeast low level winds, expected with the
passage of the frontal boundary will continue to transport
occasionally areas of cloudiness and showers mostly across the
U.S. Virgin Islands, Vieques, Culebra and across the northern and
eastern sections of Puerto Rico overnight and early in the
mornings with some convection expected to develop during the
afternoons across western, interior and southwest sections of
Puerto Rico until at least Wednesday. Moisture is expected to
decrease sharply after the frontal boundary passage. A northeast
wind flow in combination with a dry air mass expected across the e
region by wednesday will induce cooler than normal temperatures
across the local islands.

&&

.AVIATION...Passing SHRA activity expected to continue across the
area PR and USVI this morning. Winds are expected to continue from
the NE and increasing after 10/12Z. Winds could be as much as
20KT sustained with higher gusts after 10/16Z.

&&

.MARINE...Latest bouy observations indicated swell actions across
the Atlantic waters with buoy 41043 located around 180 miles
northeast of San Juan showing seas up to 11 feet with periods of
11 seconds, San Juan bouy 41053 indicated seas up to 8 feet with
period of 12 seconds and Rincon buoy 41115 indicated seas up to 11
feet with period of 12 seconds. Seas are expected to increase even
more this morning. Therefore SCA is in effect for all coastal
waters. Refer to latest Coastal Hazard Message (CFWSJU) and
Coastal waters forecast (CWFSJU) products for latest information
and other marine advisories.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 80 74 80 73 / 40 30 30 20
STT 83 73 82 72 / 50 30 30 20

&&
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