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Puerto Rico / U.S Virgin Islands daily weather

By: Tropicsweatherpr , 10:25 AM GMT on October 15, 2016


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
549 AM AST Sat Oct 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS...Mid to upper level ridge will build and remain in
place across the region today through the weekend. Ridge is then
forecast to erode by early next week as a broad trough will move
across the Western Atlantic. Surface high pressure ridge will build
across the west and central Atlantic to maintain light to
moderate easterly trade winds through the weekend. Recent
satellite imagery suggests a weak easterly perturbation and patch
of low level moisture now moving across the Northeast Caribbean
with a slot of drier air quickly approaching the Lesser Antilles.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Some light passing showers were observed across the
Atlantic coastal waters overnight. Some of these showers brushed
the northern coast of Puerto Rico. A slot of drier air east of the
local islands...will move across the region later today.
Therefore...limited shower activity is expected through much of
the day. However...daytime heating and local effects will combined
with available moisture to produced scattered showers with
isolated thunderstorms over the western interior and southwestern
sections of Puerto Rico.

Moisture will increase by mid week as broad trough moves across
the Western Atlantic. This trough will induce a moist southerly
flow across the region which will result in better chances for
showers and thunderstorms beginning on Tuesday and continuing
until at least Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected this morning across the
local Flying area with only VCSH expected en route between the
Leeward Islands and USVI. After 15/16z, SHRA/TSRA development
expected over western and Interior PR. As a result, mountain
obscurations as well as brief periods of MVFR conditions are
possible at TJBQ/TJMZ with VCSH at TJSJ. Expect easterly winds at 10
to 15 knots with sea some sea breeze variations aft 15/13z.

&&

.MARINE...Seas up to 5 feet and winds up to 15 knots are expected.
Moderate risk of rip current is expected along the north facing
beaches of Puerto Rico today.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 77 88 77 / 20 30 30 30
STT 89 78 88 77 / 30 30 30 30


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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167. GardenGrrl
3:01 PM GMT on April 02, 2017
The new owners of WU have deleted our WU Photos. Is now deleting our blogs, yet wants us to give data from our weather stations to them for free.

Pull your station. No community. No free data.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
166. Tropicsweatherpr
10:11 AM GMT on March 30, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
412 AM AST Thu Mar 30 2017

.SYNOPSIS...The proximity of an area of moisture associated with a
surface low well northeast of the region is expected to combine with
daytime heating and local effects to induce the development of
shower activity along and south of Cordillera Central this
afternoon. A generally fair weather pattern will prevail on tonight
Friday with some locally induced afternoon showers across west and
southwest Puerto Rico. Moisture advection is expected to increase
again during the upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...
Partly cloudy to clear skies prevailed across the local islands
overnight. Some light passing showers were seen across the Atlantic
coastal waters.Some of these showers brushed the northern coast of
Puerto Rico. Rainfall accumulation with this activity was minimal.

For today, high pressure system will take control of the weather
conditions across the region. Drier air will continue to move across
the region from the north, limiting the development of showers
across the area. However, available moisture will combine once again
with daytime heating and local effect, will produce some showers
across the interior and southwest sections of Puerto Rico this
afternoon.

For late Friday into Saturday, an area of moisture is expected to
move from the Caribbean coastal waters to the north and is forecast
to affect the region Friday night into Saturday. Therefore, an
increase in shower activity is expected by that time.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...
A surface high pressure across the central Atlantic is expected to
maintain a generally easterly trade wind flow across the region
through late in the weekend. This surface high is expected to drift
rapidly eastward while weakening as a strong surface low and
associated frontal boundary emerge across the eastern United States
seaboard early in the week. This feature is expected to maintain an
east to east northeast low level wind flow across the northeast
Caribbean through at least Tuesday. Another surface high will
develop across the central Atlantic by mid week between two low
pressure systems. One of the low across the north central Atlantic
and the other emerging across the northwestern Atlantic. The
combination of these features will induce a tight pressure gradient
over the region increasing the winds speed across the local islands
Wednesday and Thursday. Patches of moisture embedded in the trades
will combine each day with local effects to induce a new round of
showers and possible thunderstorms especially during the afternoons
hours across Puerto Rico, but not widespread precipitation is
expected. Looking well ahead we can see the repetition of the same
weather pattern of developing surface highs between surfaces lows
until at least the next weekend.

Model guidance suggest that the upper level ridge over the northeast
Caribbean is expected to erode during the weekend allowing more
moisture transport across the local islands Saturday, Sunday and
early in the week. This weakening upper ridge will allow old frontal
boundaries remnants to induce and increase in showers and possible
thunderstorms across the region until at least Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all
TAF sites through at least 30/16z. Some showers can be expected in
the vicinity of TJPS and TJMZ this afternoon. Low level winds will
be mainly north to northeast at 10 to 15 kts.

&&

.MARINE...Early this morning buoy 41043 indicated a long period
northerly swell of 17 seconds with 7 feet seas. This swell is
expected to impact the Atlantic waters today and tonight, but is
expected to decay rapidly on Friday. This swell will induce a
high risk of rip currents for the northern beaches of PR. Two
additional northerly swells one associated to the surface low over
the Central Atlantic and another one from a low that should enter
the NW Atlantic on Saturday are expected to keep hazardous seas
and marine conditions at the northern coasts of the islands
through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 75 85 76 / 20 20 20 20
STT 85 73 85 75 / 20 20 20 40
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
165. Tropicsweatherpr
10:08 AM GMT on March 29, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
353 AM AST Wed Mar 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A surface high across the southwest Atlantic will
push the surface low to the northeast of the region further
northeast well away from the local islands. As this happens, the
local winds will shift to the north northeast today. Lingering
moisture across the region will combine with local effects to
induce the development of showers and possible thunderstorms along
and south of Cordillera Central today. Winds are expected to
become more easterly by the weekend as the surface high drift
eastward while weakening. North swell is expected to affect the
local waters late Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...
Partly cloudy skies prevailed across the local islands overnight.
Some light passing showers were seen across the Caribbean coastal
waters. Local Area remains under the influence of a surface low
pressure system which was located several hundred miles northeast of
the area. Trailing moisture associated with this feature will
continue to aid in the development of showers and possible
thunderstorms mainly over the Cordillera Central of Puerto Rico. The
difference today it is that the wind has shifted northerly. As a
result,shower activity will be focus mainly over the southern slopes
of Puerto Rico.

As the aformentioned area of low pressure continue to move away from
the area, a drier airmass is expected to encompass the region
Thursday and Friday as a high pressure system builds across the
western Atlantic.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...
A weak surface high pressure is expected to develop across the
central Atlantic early in the weekend to maintain an easterly trade
wind flow across the local islands Saturday and Sunday. At the same
time a surface low emerging across the northeastern United States
seaboard will push the surface high eastward while weakening. As
this happens patches of moisture associated with a frontal
remnants will combine with local effects both days to produce an
increase in cloudiness and shower activity across Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands during the weekend, but at this time not
widespread or significant precipitation is expected during this
period.

As the aforementioned surface low and associated frontal boundary
moves northeastward toward the north central Atlantic, another
stronger surface high is expected to develop and drift across the
western Atlantic. This feature will bring an east northeast trade
wind flow across the forecast area late Monday through at least
Wednesday. An upper level ridge is expected to build and
strengthening over the northeast Caribbean during the weekend and
is expected to persist over the region through at least Wednesday.
This feature will inhibit the development of widespread or deep
convection across the local islands during the forecast period,
but moisture embedded in the trades will continue to combine with
local effects to produce some shower activity across western and
interior Puerto Rico each day.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all
TAF sites through at least 29/16z. Periods of MVFR conditions can be
expected across TJPS and TJMZ between 29/16z through 29/22z in SHRA.
Low level winds will be mainly north and northwest at 10 kts or
less.

&&

.MARINE...Seas of 3 to 5 feet will continue to prevail across
the Atlantic waters, with seas 2 to 4 feet across the Caribbean
waters. A moderate risk of rip current will continue across the
Atlantic shoreline of Puerto Rico today and tonight. A northerly
swell will arrive across the local waters late Wednesday into
Thursday with seas increasing up to 6 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 75 84 74 / 20 10 10 10
STT 84 74 85 73 / 40 20 20 20
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
164. Tropicsweatherpr
10:31 AM GMT on March 28, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
409 AM AST Tue Mar 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A surface low pressure system north of Puerto Rico
will continue to bring a light and moist southerly wind flow
across the region today. A surface trough is forecast move across
the local islands today aiding in the development of showers and
thunderstorms along and to the north of Cordillera Central,
including the San Juan metropolitan through at least tonight.
A drier air mass is expected to encompass the region by mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...
A surface low pressure system located around 300 miles north of
Puerto Rico early this morning will continue to induce a moist
south to southwesterly flow which in combination with daytime
heating and local effects, will aid in the development of showers
and possible thunderstorms across the northern slopes of Puerto
Rico this afternoon. As has been the last couple of days, the
afternoon activity will be focus mainly across the north and
northeast sections of Puerto Rico including in the vicinity of San
Juan.

The surface low is expected to move northeast away from the area by
late Wednesday. As it move away from the area, a high pressure
system is expected to take control of the weather locally. As a
result, drier and stable weather conditions are expected to return
to the local area by Thursday.

LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...
As the surface low just to the north of Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola continues to move further northeastward into the north
central Atlantic, a ridge will begin to build across the region
late in the work week and during the upcoming weekend. This
feature will bring a northeasterly wind flow and a general dry and
stable weather pattern across the local islands through early in
the weekend. The northeasterly wind flow is expected to produce
seasonable temperatures during this period. An east to east
southeast winds will return to the region from late Saturday
through early next week with more moisture transport to produce an
slight increase in cloudiness and showers across the region and
warmer than normal temperatures across the northern coastal
municipalities of Puerto Rico. No widespread or significant shower
activity is expected at in the foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all
TAF sites through at least 28/16z. Periods of MVFR conditions can be
expected across TJSJ and TJBQ between 28/16z through 28/22z in SHRA.
Low level winds will continue mainly south at 10 kts or less.

&&

.MARINE...Seas of 3 to 5 feet will continue to prevail across
the Atlantic waters, with seas 2 to 4 feet across the Caribbean
waters. A moderate risk of rip current will continue across the
Atlantic shoreline of Puerto Rico during the next few days. A
northerly swell will arrive across the local waters Wednesday
into Thursday with seas increasing up to 6 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 85 75 / 60 20 20 10
STT 83 74 85 73 / 40 20 40 20
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
163. Tropicsweatherpr
10:30 AM GMT on March 28, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
409 AM AST Tue Mar 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A surface low pressure system north of Puerto Rico
will continue to bring a light and moist southerly wind flow
across the region today. A surface trough is forecast move across
the local islands today aiding in the development of showers and
thunderstorms along and to the north of Cordillera Central,
including the San Juan metropolitan through at least tonight.
A drier air mass is expected to encompass the region by mid week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...
A surface low pressure system located around 300 miles north of
Puerto Rico early this morning will continue to induce a moist
south to southwesterly flow which in combination with daytime
heating and local effects, will aid in the development of showers
and possible thunderstorms across the northern slopes of Puerto
Rico this afternoon. As has been the last couple of days, the
afternoon activity will be focus mainly across the north and
northeast sections of Puerto Rico including in the vicinity of San
Juan.

The surface low is expected to move northeast away from the area by
late Wednesday. As it move away from the area, a high pressure
system is expected to take control of the weather locally. As a
result, drier and stable weather conditions are expected to return
to the local area by Thursday.

LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...
As the surface low just to the north of Puerto Rico and
Hispaniola continues to move further northeastward into the north
central Atlantic, a ridge will begin to build across the region
late in the work week and during the upcoming weekend. This
feature will bring a northeasterly wind flow and a general dry and
stable weather pattern across the local islands through early in
the weekend. The northeasterly wind flow is expected to produce
seasonable temperatures during this period. An east to east
southeast winds will return to the region from late Saturday
through early next week with more moisture transport to produce an
slight increase in cloudiness and showers across the region and
warmer than normal temperatures across the northern coastal
municipalities of Puerto Rico. No widespread or significant shower
activity is expected at in the foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all
TAF sites through at least 28/16z. Periods of MVFR conditions can be
expected across TJSJ and TJBQ between 28/16z through 28/22z in SHRA.
Low level winds will continue mainly south at 10 kts or less.

&&

.MARINE...Seas of 3 to 5 feet will continue to prevail across
the Atlantic waters, with seas 2 to 4 feet across the Caribbean
waters. A moderate risk of rip current will continue across the
Atlantic shoreline of Puerto Rico during the next few days. A
northerly swell will arrive across the local waters Wednesday
into Thursday with seas increasing up to 6 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 77 85 75 / 60 20 20 10
STT 83 74 85 73 / 40 20 40 20
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
162. Tropicsweatherpr
10:29 AM GMT on March 27, 2017
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
401 AM AST Mon Mar 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A surface low over the Atlantic waters northwest of
PR will continue to move north northeast into the western Atlantic for
the next few days. A surface high will build across the Western
Atlantic just northwest of the surface low, spreading into the
local area by midweek as the surface low moves east into the
central Atlantic. Drier air at mid levels is expected to continue
moving in through the end of the week. Light southerly winds will
continue until Monday, becoming very light on Tuesday, then
northerly and increasing on Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...
Doppler weather radar indicated isolated to scattered showers
moving northward from the Caribbean waters across the U.S. Virgin
Islands, Vieques, Culebra as well as across the eastern sections
of Puerto Rico overnight and early this morning. However, no
significant rainfall amounts were measured. Elsewhere over land
areas not significant precipitation was detected.

A surface low pressure system to the north of Hispaniola this
morning will continue to bring a relatively moist southerly wind
flow across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands today. Less
cloud cover is expected today across the region and therefore
diurnal heating in combination with sea breeze convergence and
other local effects will induce the development of showers and
possible thunderstorms along and north of Cordillera Central,
including the San Juan Metro area during the afternoon hours.
Urban and small stream flooding are possible over northern Puerto
Rico. As the low moves further northeastward over the Atlantic
waters, moisture will continue to decrease across the local
islands tonight and Tuesday. However, the lingering moisture in
combination with local effects will induce the development of
some convection each afternoon specially across the interior and
northern sections of Puerto Rico. Due to the expected southerly
wind flow, warmer than normal temperatures are possible across
the northern coastal municipalities of Puerto Rico during the
next few days.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...
The surface low will continue to move north into the north
central Atlantic on Thursday and the ridge across the western
Atlantic builds north of the islands through the end of the week.
This will generate a northerly wind flow from Wednesday through at
least Saturday. A much drier airmass will prevail over the region
from Thursday through late Friday...this will result fair weather
conditions through this period. East to southeast winds return
from early Saturday through Sunday with moisture increasing from
the southeast...associated with remnants of the surface
low/frontal boundary.

&&

.AVIATION...Brief periods of MVFR conds will remain possible at
the Leeward and USVI TAF sites this morning. SHRA/TSRA expected
aft 27/16z in and around TJMZ, TJBQ and TJSJ. Light and variable
winds are expected overnight. Latest TJSJ sounding indicated a
south southwesterly wind flow at all levels, but very strong
aloft.

&&

.MARINE...Seas will continue to subside this morning. Early this
morning local buoy 41115 in Rincon indicated seas of 5 feet while
bouy 41053 in San Juan indicated also seas of 5 feet. The small
craft advisories were cancelled. A moderate risk of rip currents
will continue to prevail across some areas during the next few
days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 75 86 77 / 60 40 40 10
STT 84 75 84 75 / 40 40 40 20
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
161. Tropicsweatherpr
10:28 AM GMT on March 27, 2017
AFDSJU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
401 AM AST Mon Mar 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A surface low over the Atlantic waters northwest of
PR will continue to move north northeast into the western Atlantic for
the next few days. A surface high will build across the Western
Atlantic just northwest of the surface low, spreading into the
local area by midweek as the surface low moves east into the
central Atlantic. Drier air at mid levels is expected to continue
moving in through the end of the week. Light southerly winds will
continue until Monday, becoming very light on Tuesday, then
northerly and increasing on Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...
Doppler weather radar indicated isolated to scattered showers
moving northward from the Caribbean waters across the U.S. Virgin
Islands, Vieques, Culebra as well as across the eastern sections
of Puerto Rico overnight and early this morning. However, no
significant rainfall amounts were measured. Elsewhere over land
areas not significant precipitation was detected.

A surface low pressure system to the north of Hispaniola this
morning will continue to bring a relatively moist southerly wind
flow across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands today. Less
cloud cover is expected today across the region and therefore
diurnal heating in combination with sea breeze convergence and
other local effects will induce the development of showers and
possible thunderstorms along and north of Cordillera Central,
including the San Juan Metro area during the afternoon hours.
Urban and small stream flooding are possible over northern Puerto
Rico. As the low moves further northeastward over the Atlantic
waters, moisture will continue to decrease across the local
islands tonight and Tuesday. However, the lingering moisture in
combination with local effects will induce the development of
some convection each afternoon specially across the interior and
northern sections of Puerto Rico. Due to the expected southerly
wind flow, warmer than normal temperatures are possible across
the northern coastal municipalities of Puerto Rico during the
next few days.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...
The surface low will continue to move north into the north
central Atlantic on Thursday and the ridge across the western
Atlantic builds north of the islands through the end of the week.
This will generate a northerly wind flow from Wednesday through at
least Saturday. A much drier airmass will prevail over the region
from Thursday through late Friday...this will result fair weather
conditions through this period. East to southeast winds return
from early Saturday through Sunday with moisture increasing from
the southeast...associated with remnants of the surface
low/frontal boundary.

&&

.AVIATION...Brief periods of MVFR conds will remain possible at
the Leeward and USVI TAF sites this morning. SHRA/TSRA expected
aft 27/16z in and around TJMZ, TJBQ and TJSJ. Light and variable
winds are expected overnight. Latest TJSJ sounding indicated a
south southwesterly wind flow at all levels, but very strong
aloft.

&&

.MARINE...Seas will continue to subside this morning. Early this
morning local buoy 41115 in Rincon indicated seas of 5 feet while
bouy 41053 in San Juan indicated also seas of 5 feet. The small
craft advisories were cancelled. A moderate risk of rip currents
will continue to prevail across some areas during the next few
days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 75 86 77 / 60 40 40 10
STT 84 75 84 75 / 40 40 40 20
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
160. Tropicsweatherpr
10:11 AM GMT on March 26, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
509 AM AST Sun Mar 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Surface low over the Atlantic waters between
Hispaniola and PR will continue to move to the north northeast of
the forecast area for the next few days. Surface high will build
across the Western Atlantic and into the local area by midweek.
Drier mid levels air expected to fill in today and persist through
the the end of the week. Light southerly winds will continue until
Monday, becoming northerly and increasing through Thursday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday...A line of showers and
strong thunderstorms persisted across the Atlantic waters
northwest of Puerto Rico overnight. This activity will continue to
move to the northeast approaching the northwest tip of Puerto
Rico during the morning hours. Showers were also observed over
south central sections of Puerto Rico as well as across Vieques,
Culebra and eastern Puerto Rico overnight. Few light shower
affected the U.S. Virgin Islands.

A developing surface low pressure system to the north of Hispaniola
this morning will continue to bring a moist and unstable southerly
wind flow across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands today. Less
cloud cover is expected today across the region and therefore
diurnal heating in combination with sea breeze convergence and other
local effects will induce the development of showers and
thunderstorms along and north of Cordillera Central, including the
San Juan Metro area especially during the afternoon and early
evening hours. Urban and small stream flooding are possible over
northern Puerto Rico. As the low moves further northeastward and
strengthening over the Atlantic waters, moisture will begin to
decrease slowly across the local islands by Tuesday and thereafter.
However, a few thunderstorms may still be possible during the next
several days due to lingering moisture in combination with local
effects especially in the interior sections of Puerto Rico. Due to
the expected southerly wind flow, warmer than normal temperatures
are expected across the northern coastal municipalities of Puerto
Rico during the next few days.


.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...Surface low moves into
the North Central Atlantic on Wednesday and the ridge across the
Western Atlantic builds north of the islands through the end of
the week. This will result in a cooler northerly wind flow
over the islands and fair weather conditions through the middle
of the week. East to southeast winds return from Friday through
Sunday with moisture increasing from the southeast...apparently
associated with remnants of the surface low/frontal boundary.

&&

.AVIATION...Brief periods of MVFR conditions are expected across
the Leeward and USVI taf sites this morning. SHRA/TSRA are expected
to develop along and north of Cordillera Central this afternoon
inducing periods of MVFR or even IFR conditions after 26/16z in and
around TJMZ, TJBQ and TJSJ. Latest TJSJ sounding indicated a
south southwesterly wind flow at all level, but very strong aloft.


&&

.MARINE...Small craft advisory continue in effect today for the
Atlantic waters and passaged. Northerly swell will continue to
subside through this evening. High surf advisory condtions will
continue for the north facing beaches of PR and a high risk of
rip currents will continue through at least the overnight hours
across the northwest to north coast of PR, Culebra and St. Thomas.
Beach goers should avoid these areas and exercise caution if
going to any other beaches of the islands.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 88 77 / 50 40 50 40
STT 82 75 84 75 / 50 50 50 40

&&
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
159. Tropicsweatherpr
10:33 AM GMT on March 25, 2017
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
517 AM AST Sat Mar 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Deep layered moisture and trof pattern aloft will
maintain an unsettled weather pattern through the rest of the
weekend. A surface trough and a developing low to the north of
Hispaniola and the Mona Passage will continue to promote a
moderate southerly wind flow over the forecast area. At least
through the weekend the potential for urban and small stream
flooding will remain high across the islands. The low and a
building high across the Western Atlantic will promote northwest
to northerly winds by early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday...

A shear line across the Atlantic waters in combination with a
developing low pressure system just north of Puerto Rico will
maintain a very moist and unstable southwest wind flow across the
region until at least Sunday. At the same time an upper level trough
extending from the central Caribbean northward across Jamaica and
Cuba and then over the Atlantic waters has maintained an associated
jet over the Atlantic waters to the north of the region. These
features will aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms
across the region today an until early the upcoming week. Abundant
tropical moisture embedded in the wind flow will continue to bring
showers and thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters and then
across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands today.

Early this morning Doppler radar indicated scattered to numerous
showers moving from the Caribbean waters, north northeastward
across south central and eastern sections of Puerto Rico as well
across Vieques, Culebra and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Urban and
small stream flooding are possible today and Sunday across Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Drier air will filter across the
region on Monday, but moisture will linger across the region to
produce some showers especially during the afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Through Saturday...

Surface low is forecast to move north of the islands through early
next week across the Central Atlantic as a building ridge across
the Western Atlantic builds and moves north of the islands by
late in the week. This will result in a northwest to northerly
wind flow through the middle of the week. As the low pulls away,
moisture content is expected to diminish quickly over the islands
but moisture content will remain high over the Caribbean Sea. At
the moment, best chance for showers are expected between
eastern PR and the USVI on Tuesday. At upper levels another short
wave trof is expected to move on Wednesday. Then a ridge will
build across the Caribbean basin. This in combination with a cool
northerly wind flow due to the surface high will promote drier air
and seasonable weather conditions across the islands.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA/TSRA will produce periods of MVFR or even IFR
conditions across the Leewards, USVI, TJPS and TJSJ taf sites until
at least 25/16z. VCSH expected across the rest of the local flying
area this morning. Mountain obscurations will continue over PR thru
26/00Z. Bands of moisture with embedded +RA and TSRA will move
occasionally over the local flying area this afternoon to produce
periods of MVFR conditions across most taf sites.

&&

.MARINE...A large northerly swell will fill in across the local
passages and Atlantic waters through Sunday. Small craft
advisories are in effect. Seas should range between 8-10 feet
across the offshore Atlantic and under 8 feet elsewhere across the
passages and the northern coastal waters of the islands. A high
surf advisory is in effect for the northwest through northeast
coast of PR and a high rip current risk is also in effect for the
same areas including northern Culebra and northwest St. Thomas.
Beach goers are urged to avoid these coastal areas through the
rest of the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 86 75 / 50 20 50 40
STT 81 74 82 75 / 20 50 50 50
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
158. Tropicsweatherpr
10:08 AM GMT on March 24, 2017
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
512 AM AST Fri Mar 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Deep layered moisture and trof pattern aloft will
maintain an unsettled weather pattern through the weekend. At low
levels, a surface trough and developing low north of Hispaniola
will continue to create a moist southerly wind flow over the
forecast area. At least through the weekend the potential for
urban and small stream flooding will remain high across the
islands.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Friday through Sunday...

Mostly cloudy skies prevailed across the local islands overnight and
early this morning with shower activity observed across the Caribbean
waters, the eastern half of Puerto Rico as well as the U.S. Virgin
Islands. Rainfall accumulations across the USVI were between one and
two inches with minimal accumulations noted over Puerto Rico.
Temperatures along coastal areas were in the mid to upper 70s under
light and variable winds.

The local weather regime will continue to be dictated by a mid to
upper level trough which is located across the western Atlantic and
into the central Caribbean. The trough aloft and associated upper
level divergent pattern will persist through early next week.
Although the jet maxima remains north of the forecast area during
the entire period; is close enough to destabilize the local atmosphere.
At lower levels, an induced trough across the northeast Caribbean,
which is associated with the aforementioned trough, is expected to
develop into a low by Sun. This will continue to support moisture
advection from the southeast during the next few days.

Therefore, under plenty of moisture and favorable upper level
dynamics, environmental conditions are favorable and conductive for
shower and thunder activity across the area. Based on the latest
guidance, the best chance for periods of showers and Tstorms is
expected across east and southeast Puerto Rico as well as the U.S.
Virgin Islands Fri and Sat with a slightly decrease in coverage and
intensity on Sun. Shower and thunder activity across northwest Puerto
Rico will be locally induced and enhanced by the proximity of the
trough aloft. These showers likely to result in urban flooding as well
as rises along small streams and rivers particularly across eastern
Puerto Rico.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday.

Surface low is forecast to move north of the islands through early
next week across the Central Atlantic. Creating a south to
southwesterly wind flow through at least late Tuesday night. As
the low pulls away, moisture content is expected to diminish
quickly as a strong surface high pressure develops over the
Western Atlantic and moves slowly north of the islands through the
forecast period. At the moment, best chance for showers are
expected between eastern/northern PR and the USVI on
Monday/Tuesday. At upper levels another short wave trof is
expected to move on Wednesday. Then a ridge will build across the
Caribbean basin. This in combination with a cool northerly wind
flow due to the surface high will promote drier air and fair
weather conditions across the islands.



&&

.AVIATION...MVFR or even IFR conds at times will remain possible through
the forecast period at all PR and USVI TAF sites, particularly
JSJ/IST/ISX. Mountain obscurations expected throughout the day. Mostly
VFR conds at the Leeward terminals. East southeast winds at 10 knots or
less.


&&

.MARINE...Coastal buoys are indicating seas around 4 feet and
variable winds at less than 10 knots. A northerly swell is
forecast to reach the local Atlantic waters late tonight and
increase through the weekend across the rest of the northern
waters of the islands and passages. Small craft advisories will be
in effect. A high risk of rip currents is expected across much of
the north facing beaches of the islands during the weekend.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 72 85 73 / 70 50 60 50
STT 82 73 81 74 / 70 60 70 50
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
157. Tropicsweatherpr
10:33 AM GMT on March 23, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
509 AM AST Thu Mar 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today thru Saturday...Deep southerly wind flow will
continue to pool moisture across the forecast area. As a prefrontal
trof establish over the islands and an upper level trof pattern
evolves from the west in the short term period. For today...through
the morning hours, showers will continue to develop over the Caribbean
waters and move over the USVI and the southern/eastern portions of
PR. During the afternoon hours, high res models are indicating shower
development over the north/northwest quadrant of PR. Shower activity
will remain high through the forecast period across the Atlantic waters
due to a meandering shearline between Hispaniola and the Mona Passage.

Better moisture advection over the islands is expected on Fri
through Saturday and in combination with good divergence aloft...
scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected
each day. Forecast soundings are indicating a gradual increase in
PWAT from around 1.70 inches today to near 2 inches on Saturday.
Localized urban and small stream flooding is very likely these two
days.

.LONG TERM...Sunday-next Friday...The mid to upper level trough is
forecast to deepen and extend southwards into the west and central
Caribbean through early Sunday. The trough will then lift further
north into the west and central Atlantic. A developing surface low
north of Hispaniola with the associated trough will continue to induce
a moist southerly flow and unstable weather pattern across the region
until Monday or early Tuesday. Winds are to become more northerly
by late Tuesday through the end of the week, as surface high pressure
will build across the western Atlantic and north of the region. By
Wednesday of next week through Friday, north to northeast winds
should prevail and this should bring much drier and stable condition
to the region. However brief early morning passing showers cannot
be ruled along the north coastal areas due to the prevailing northerly
winds. This will be followed by isolated to scattered afternoon shower
activity each day.

In the meantime...Deep layered moisture advection and instability
aloft due to upper trough and subtropical jet maxima will persist
over the northeastern Caribbean through Sunday. Enhanced early
morning and afternoon convection will be likely across the islands
and coastal waters. The upper trough and subtropical jet maxima will
fill and lift north of the region by late Monday and Tuesday resulting
in less favorable conditions aloft for enhanced convection and a gradual
decrease in morning and afternoon shower activity. The potential for
periods of locally heavy rainfall with minor urban and small stream
flooding as well as quick rising of water levels along rivers and
guts will remain high across portions of the islands at least until
Monday of next week due to saturated soils and the expected unstable
weather conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...SHRA will continue across the regional waters and btw
the eastern PR and the USVI. These showers can result in tempo MVFR
conds at TIST/TISX. Sct-bkn cigs btw FL030-060 expected to continue
with mountain obscd over PR through the fcst period. Additional SHRA
is expected during the afternoon and periods of MVFR conds cant be
ruled out at TJSJ/TJBQ/TJMZ. Iso TSTMs possible after 24/00z over
the offshore waters. Southerly winds around 10 kts expected blo
FL100...bcmg SW-W above and increasing w/height. VFR expected for
much of the fcst period at TNCM/TKPK.

&&

.MARINE...Recent buoy observations continue to suggest seas up to
7 feet across the offshore Atlantic waters. As a result, the Small
Craft advisory has been extended until 10 am AST this morning. A larger
northerly swell generated by the developing low is expected to impact
the Atlantic waters and local passages by late Friday. This will again
create hazardous and building seas over the weekend. Please refer to
the latest Coastal Waters Forecast (CWFSJU) and Marine Weather Message
(MWWSJU) issued by WFO San Juan PR for additional information on the
local marine hazards.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 85 75 / 40 50 70 50
STT 83 73 82 73 / 30 60 60 60
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
156. Tropicsweatherpr
10:15 AM GMT on March 22, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
507 AM AST Wed Mar 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...Today thru-early Fri...
An east to southeasterly wind flow between 5-15 mph will prevail
for much of the forecast period. Max temps should reach the high
80s across coastal areas. A few showers will reach areas of eastern
PR and the USVI through the morning hours, which can result in minor
ponding of water on roadways and in low lying areas.

Upper ridge southeast of the area will continue to weaken as trough
pattern aloft builds from the west through the end of the week. At
low levels a prefrontal trof is forecast to move over the islands on
Friday. As this trough pattern unfolds moisture will continue to
pool across the area and the intensity and coverage of showers and
isolated thunderstorms will increase each day. Therefore, diurnally
induced afternoon convection with some favorable upper level
conditions will lead to periods of moderate to heavy rainfall along
and to the north of the Cordillera Central each day. This will continue
to pose a threat of at least urban and small stream flooding through
the short term period.

.LONG TERM...Late Fri thru Wed...
Expect frequent periods of late evening and overnight passing
showers along portions of the north and east coastal sections of
the islands,followed by afternoon convection with enhanced shower
activity particularly across the interior and northern half of
Puerto Rico each day. The potential for periods of locally heavy
rainfall with minor urban and small stream flooding in isolated
areas will remain high across portions of the islands especially
for the northern and eastern half of Puerto Rico.

Long wave trough across the western Atlantic is still forecast to
deepen and extend southwards into the west and central Caribbean
Thru the end of the week . This will increase instability over the
northeastern Caribbean leading to enhanced upper level divergence
across the region. The subtropical jet and associated maxima will
continue to strengthen and to round the base of the upper trough which
will lift northeastward to just north of the region. The inverted
surface trough is to continue to amplify and lift northwards across
the region with a weak surface low now forecast to develop just north
Hispaniola by Monday. As a result, a moist south to southeasterly
flow should persist through Friday and into the weekend. All model
guidance support a very moist and unstable pattern across the region
for the next several days with good tropical moisture advection. Moisture
convergence along a frontal shear line, along with the lingering surface
trough and instability aloft will all favor high potential for enhanced
convection across the region at least through Tuesday of next week.
Winds are forecast to become more easterly by Wednesday as the surface
trough weakens and the upper trough fills and lifts north of the
region. This should then support a gradual decrease in moisture
transport. However, moisture along the old frontal shearline
should return across the region to allow for nocturnal shower
activity, and diurnally induced afternoon convection which should
be focused over the interior and west sections of PR.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions expected to prevail across all
terminals. However, afternoon SHRA development north of the mountain
ranges of PR can impact the flying area of TJSJ and TJBQ with tempo
MVFR conds. Mainly VCSH expected across the Leeward/USVI terminals,
this can result brief -RA and BKN cigs. Winds from the ESE at 10-15
knots below FL100...then SW-W and increasing with height. Sea breeze
variations expected across NW Puerto Rico btw 14z-22z.

&&

.MARINE...Local buoys continued to suggest seas building seas across
the local Atlantic waters. Seas will continue to increase as northerly
swell reaches the local waters. Seas up to 7 feet are expected across
the offshore Atlantic waters. A larger northerly swell is still forecast
to arrive and spread across the Atlantic waters and local passages by
late Friday with deteriorating conditions though the weekend.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 86 76 / 40 30 40 50
STT 84 75 84 73 / 50 40 40 50

&&
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
155. Tropicsweatherpr
10:22 AM GMT on March 21, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
447 AM AST Tue Mar 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...Tuesday-Thursday...Overnight showers were mainly
observed over the Atlantic waters and over portions of eastern PR.
However, no significant rainfall accumulations were observed. It was
mostly clear across the USVI with temps in the low 70s across
coastal areas. An induced surface trough moving across the Caribbean
waters will enhance afternoon convection along the mountain ranges
of PR this afternoon. As soils are already saturated due to
yesterday`s rains, any period of heavy or prolonged rainfall across
the interior and north of the Cordillera will lead to urban and
small stream flooding. Upper level trough will weaken and associated
sfc front will linger across the Atlantic waters. Afternoon
streamers and passing showers are expected mainly across the USVI.

Forecast soundings are indicating light steering winds from the east-
southeast around 10 kts through Thursday. In addition, another mid
to upper level trough will move from the west late Wednesday into
Thursday enhancing upper level dynamics across the region. So any
additional afternoon shower development over land areas will continue
to pose a threat of at least urban and small stream flooding through
the short term period. Associated low level shearline is forecast
to enhance more moisture and favorable conditions for more rainfall
late in the week and into the weekend.

.LONG TERM...late Thursday-next Tuesday...High amplitude trough
is forecast to deepen and extend across the Greater Antilles into
the west and central Caribbean Thursday through Friday. This will
gradually increase instability aloft and enhanced upper level
divergence across the region. A subtropical jet max is forecast to
round the base of the upper trough and lift northeastward just
north of the forecast area. In the low levels, a broad inverted
surface trough will linger across the central and eastern
Caribbean. As a result, a moist southeasterly flow will persist
through Friday and into the weekend. Therefore a much wetter
pattern with enhanced tropical moisture advection is forecast for
the next several days. Good moisture convergence along the
approaching frontal boundary, and surface trough along with the
upper level instability will favor increased potential for
enhanced convection across the region through the weekend and at
least until Tuesday of next week. Thereafter winds are forecast to
become more northeasterly as surface high pressure ridge will
spread across the west Atlantic. Until then, expect periods of
late evening and overnight passing showers along portions of the
north and east coastal sections of the islands,followed by afternoon
convection with enhanced shower activity particularly across the
interior and northern half of Puerto Rico. The potential for periods
of locally heavy rainfall with minor urban and small stream flooding
in isolated areas will therefore remain high across portions of the
islands especially Puerto Rico.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR early in the forecast period across all
terminals. However, weak trough moving fm the Leeward islands into
the eastern Caribbean will create SCT-BKN cigs and enhance diurnal
convection across the islands in the afternoon. Therefore, tempo MVFR
conds possible mainly over mainland PR terminals between 16z-22z.
Low level winds will continue at 6-15 kts with sea breeze variations
after 14z.

&&

.MARINE...Seas generally 3 to 5 feet are expected overnight but increasing
gradually during the rest of today. Small craft advisory will go into
effect later tonight for the offshore Atlantic waters as seas will approach
7 feet due to increasing trade winds and a northerly swell reaching
the local waters. A larger northerly swell is still forecast to arrive
and spread across the Atlantic waters and local passages will by late
Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 86 75 / 30 30 30 20
STT 85 75 84 75 / 30 30 30 30
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
154. Tropicsweatherpr
10:24 AM GMT on March 20, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
320 AM AST Mon Mar 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...Monday thru Wed Morning... Localized low level moisture
convergence will continue across region through Tuesday in response
to approaching frontal boundary northwest of the area and associated
prefrontal trough which will move across the forecast area. This
weather pattern will create light and variable winds which are
expected to become more south southeast today, then east southeast
on Tuesday. The increasing moisture as suggested by recent PWAT
satellite analysis product and model guidance as well as instability
in the upper levels, all support better chance for showers and
possibly isolated thunderstorms today and Tuesday. Expect cloudiness
to increase across the region with periods of passing showers to
continue across the coastal waters and portions of the islands
during the early morning hours.

A brief break in cloud cover and shower activity is expected by late
morning, however sea breeze variations and diurnal effects will lead
to increasing cloudiness and afternoon convection across the
interior, north and west sections of PR. Favorable upper level
instability will support enhanced afternoon showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Expect periods of locally heavy rainfall with little
steering winds, so minor urban and small stream flooding will be
possible today and Tuesday. As the induced trough weakens late
Tuesday thru Wednesday, expect decreasing moisture convergence and
lesser chance for enhanced convection across the region.

.LONG TERM...Unstable conditions will continue through the end of
week as a sub- tropical jet will prevail to be north of the local
forecast area. A significant on moisture it is expected late
Thursday and early Friday. The GFS models suggest large amounts of
moisture across the region from Friday through at least Monday.


&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conds durg prd ovr local flying area. SCT-BKN
lyrs nr FL025...FL050...BKN-OVC FL100 en route btw PR and Nrn
Leeward Islands with passing SHRA and Few tops nr FL120. Til 20/12z
tempo MVFR at TJNR/TJSJ/TIST/TISX with MTN Top obscr ovr E PR due to
low clds and passing SHRA. L/Lvl wnds lgt/vrb blo FL200 and mostly
calm at all terminals...bcmg lgt/vrb aft 20/14z except for local sea
breeze variations. Fm 20/17z-19/22z...incr low to mid lvl cld cover
with SHRA/psbl TSRA fcst to develop over central mountain range and
W PR with possible MVFR conditions ovr and vcty TJBQ/TJMZ/TJSJ.


&&

.MARINE...The high rip current risk is cancelled as winds and
seas continued to subside through the overnight hours. A northerly
swell will reach the area by Wednesday with seas up to 7 feet
across the offshore Atlantic waters. Another pulse of a larger
northerly swells will reach our local waters on Friday night.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 85 75 / 40 40 40 30
STT 82 72 84 74 / 50 60 60 50

&&
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
153. Tropicsweatherpr
10:26 AM GMT on March 19, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
516 AM AST Sun Mar 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Increasing moisture, the presence of a cold front to
our north, a subtropical jetstream that holds just to our north
leaving us under favorable upper level dynamics will all
contribute to an increasingly wet scenario for Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands. Rainfall amounts should be highest on
Saturday, but rain is expected in many areas both early and late
in the week.

.SHORT TERM...Today thru Tuesday...
For the rest of the overnight and early morning hours, passing
showers with brief gusty winds can be expected across the local
waters, as well as along portions of the north and east coastal
sections of the islands. During the afternoon hours, the
prevailing east southeast winds should steer diurnally induced
shower activity across the interior and northern half of Puerto
Rico including portions of the San Juan Metro area. Some areas of
heavy rainfall will also be possible in the northwest. Mainly
isolated showers are expected across the U.S virgin islands during
the afternoon.

The mid to upper level ridge will continue to erode as a broad
polar trough will become amplified and move eastward across the
west and central Atlantic through Tuesday. The subtropical jet
will round the base of this trough Monday through Tuesday placing
the region on the divergent and unstable side of the jet max.
Gradually increasing pooling of moisture and low level convergence
is still forecast beginning later this evening through the early
part of the upcoming week. This is in response to the frontal
boundary northwest of the region and an associated induced trough
which will develop and lift across the region Monday through
Tuesday. This overall pattern will result in the easterly winds
becoming more south southeasterly by Monday, then east southeast
once again on Tuesday. Weather conditions will become fairly moist
and unstable on Monday through Tuesday, with favorable conditions
aloft for increased shower activity and enhanced convective
development across the forecast area.

&&

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday 27 March
On Wednesday a weak high pressure ridge will be found in place
enabling easterly trade winds of moderate to fresh intensity to
continue. That ridge will give way before a strong high pressure
moving out of the eastern United States late Thursday. It will
give another push to the front to our northwest and reinvigorate
the easterly trade winds again through the upcoming weekend. This
will maintain the flow of moisture over the area. An upper level
trough will move from Cuba on Wednesday to just north of Puerto
Rico on Sunday but will flatten out considerably as it does so.
The associated sub-tropical jet just north of us will remain
north of us during the entire period but will destabilize the
atmosphere around us on account of our being in the divergent
right entrance region. Moisture will have peaked on Tuesday but
diminishes only a little on Wednesday and Thursday and will rise
considerably late Thursday and early Friday due to the moisture
flow mentioned earlier. The GFS has been consistent in bringing
precipitable water with values of 1.8 to 2.0 inches early Friday
through beyond Monday of the following week. This will bring a
considerable amount of rain to the area should the forecast hold.
It is too early to determine if conditions are conducive for flash
flooding but localized urban and small stream flooding are
certainly possible with the forecast conditions. We continue with
isolated thunderstorms during the week as the inversion is
expected to be removed by Wednesday. The atmosphere becomes very
moist in nearly the entire column beginning Thursday and cloudy or
mostly cloudy conditions should prevail into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conds at all terminals til 19/15Z. SFC
wnds lgt/vrb becmg E-SE 10-15 kts aft 19/14z...except for local
sea breeze variations. Til 19/15z...Isold to Sct passing SHRA ovr
the coastal waters btwn PR and the nrn Leewards islands...SCT-BKN
lyrs nr FL025...FL050... FL100...with VCSH at most of the local
terminals except TJMZ. Mtn top obscr ovr E PR til 19/14z. Fm
19/17z-19/22z... SHRA dvlpmnt psbl ovr ctrl mtn range and NW PR
with VCSH at TJBQ/TJMZ/TJSJ with MVFR psbl.


&&

.MARINE...Winds and seas are diminishing and all small craft
advisories should be down by 2 AM AST Monday. The system now in
the western Atlantic and its associated cold front will send
northerly swell into the area on Wednesday. Seas may reach 7 feet
in the Atlantic waters and passages. Then the newly refreshed cold
front to our north will begin to send much stronger swell into
the area Friday night. Seas of 10 feet or more are still possible
with this system.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 73 85 75 / 30 40 50 50
STT 83 73 82 72 / 50 50 50 50

&&
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
152. Tropicsweatherpr
10:20 AM GMT on March 18, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
454 AM AST Sat Mar 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A weak trough moving through the area this morning
will bring isolated to scattered showers and a herald of
increasing moisture to come beginning Sunday morning. The approach
of a shear line Monday and Tuesday will bring increasing shower
activity. The approach of the tail of an upper level jet will
bring increasing instability, moisture and showers Friday and
Saturday and that moisture will linger beyond next weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Overnight through early Monday...
A mid to upper level ridge across the forecast area will continue to
erode, as a polar trough will amplify and move eastward across the
western Atlantic. As a result, the trade wind inversion will
weaken and allow low Level moisture to pool and converge across
the region during the weekend and into the early part of next.
Strong surface high centered across the central Atlantic and a
cold frontal boundary northwest of the area will induce moderate
easterly winds across the region today through early Sunday. The
weak ridging aloft and the prevailing easterly winds will support
periods of passing early morning showers, followed by locally and
diurnally induced afternoon convection across parts of the islands.
However, the majority of the afternoon showers should be focused
over parts of the interior and west sections of Puerto Rico. By
late Sunday and through early Monday, low level winds are to then
become more southeasterly as a surface trough will develop and
move across the region. This will increase moisture convergence
allowing a wetter pattern and better chance for morning and afternoon
convection.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Sunday, 26 March...
A shear line will pass through Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands on Monday ending the southeast flow at the surface. This
will bring showery weather to the area. The best moisture will be
pulled to the northeast of the area along the front, but some
instability could produce numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms in the interior of Puerto Rico. The easterly flow
that follows will bring continued showers Monday night in residual
moisture--mainly to the mountains of southeast Puerto Rico.
Precipitable water values decline some into Wednesday but remain
one third higher than they are now. The old boundary will be well
diffused over the area so the middle of the week will be wetter
and cloudier than this weekend. Wednesday through Sunday we will
be under the right entrance of the sub- tropical jet. This will
enhance vertical motion and cause precipitable water values to
rise to almost 2 inches by Friday and Saturday for another round
of showers and better chances for local urban and small stream
flooding. Moisture and cloudiness continue through the weekend as
the tail of the upper level jet remains just north of the area.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds durg prd. Low level wnd fm E to NE btw 10 to
20 kts blo FL200...bcmg W and incr w/ht abv. Max wnd around 45
kts nr FL400. Sfc wnds fm E-NE around 10 kts with ocnl hir gusts
along coastal areas and with passing SHRA. SCT-BKN nr
FL025...FL050... FL080 with isold passing -SHRA/SHRA few TOPS
FL100 til 18/12z en route btw islands. Brief mtn top obscr in
passing SHRA and low clds lyrs ovr E PR til 18/10z. Btwn
18/17z-18/22z MVFR cond psbl W aftn SHRA mainly ovr W PR Nr
TJBQ/TJMZ.


&&

.MARINE...Seas and swell will begin to subside tonight and by
Monday all small craft advisories should be down. Another swell
group from the next system to enter the western Atlantic ocean
will arrive from the northwest on Wednesday but current models are
holding significant wave heights down to 6 feet. The system that
rides in Friday and Saturday will bring much higher seas and the
GWW and WNA models suggest that wave heights could be in excess of
10 feet by next weekend.

Beach-goers should expect to be at high risk to rip currents along
coasts with northern exposures. Today and tonight, Wednesday and
next weekend for much the same reasons given above.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 86 73 / 50 30 30 30
STT 85 74 83 73 / 50 50 50 50
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
151. Tropicsweatherpr
10:34 AM GMT on March 17, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
508 AM AST Fri Mar 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A mid to upper level ridge across the area will drift
east and erode today through Sunday allowing a cold front to
approach the area from the northwest. Although trade winds will
continue during the entire period, flow will become more
southeasterly during the week next week and moisture will steadily
increase tonight through Monday and again on Friday and Saturday
of next week. This will increase the chances and coverage of
showers and allow thunderstorms to develop next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday
Under a mid to upper level ridge pattern a mostly fair and stable
weather pattern is expected to continue across the local islands
this morning through at least early Sunday. However, small areas of
moisture embedded in the trades may reach the local islands from
time to time to produce brief passing showers across the U.S.
Virgin Islands and eastern sections of Puerto Rico each morning.
Locally induced afternoon showers are also possible across western
and interior sections of Puerto Rico during the afternoons due to
sea breeze convergence. Surface high pressure across the central
Atlantic and a frontal boundary north northwest of the area will
continue to promote an easterly wind flow across the region today.
Winds are expected to become east northeast on Saturday as the
frontal boundary remnants move across the local Atlantic waters.
Therefore, seasonable temperatures will continue to prevail today
with pleasant temperatures expected on Saturday. The chance for
shower activity will increase late Sunday and early next week as
the ridge aloft erodes and the frontal remnants reach the region.

.LONG TERM...Sunday night through Saturday
Low pressure will move off the eastern coast of the United States
on Saturday evening. The cold front that accompanies it will
reinforce the stalled frontal boundary that will have stalled
across the windward passage on Monday. This will enhance the
upward vertical motion ahead of the front over the area and begin
to pull moisture in from the tropical western Atlantic possibly as
early as Sunday afternoon. Current model solutions do not bring
the front or its associated shearline over the forecast area but
the increased moisture and dynamics are expected to generate
isolated thunderstorms and increased shower activity mainly Monday
and Tuesday and Friday and Saturday. Moisture in the GFS solution
peaks either Friday afternoon or Saturday of next week depending
on the model cycle, but this should be the wettest period of the
week. It is too early to tell if flooding could result but some
local urban and small stream flooding should be expected on Monday
and Tuesday and again on Friday and Saturday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR condition expected across the local
flying area. VCSH are possible this morning across the Leewards,
USVI and eastern PR taf sites. Afternoon convection will cause
SHRA development around TJMZ and TJBQ. Winds will continue from
the east with sea breeze variations at 10-15kt today, decreasing
and becoming more from the ENE after 17/23Z.


&&

.MARINE...Models have been over estimating sea heights, but buoy
41043 has remained over 7 feet for some time now due to easterly
winds. Expecting seas to increase tonight and Saturday in response
to stronger winds, but subside by Sunday. Seas will likely remain
7 feet or better in the northern part of the outer Atlantic zone
through Sunday. Seas will also likely return by mid week next
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 85 74 / 20 50 50 50
STT 84 73 84 74 / 30 50 50 50
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
150. Tropicsweatherpr
10:12 AM GMT on March 16, 2017
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
518 AM AST Thu Mar 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong mid to upper level ridge continues dominating the local
weather. This feature will holds over the region through early
Saturday. In general, a fair and stable weather pattern is
expected to persist through the rest of the work week. However, a
weak surface trough with a surge of moisture is moving across the
Caribbean waters from the east today. Therefore, passing showers
are expected across the U.S. Virgin Islands and the eastern half
portion of Puerto Rico during the morning hours, followed by
afternoon convection across the interior and west PR. By the
upcoming weekend into next week, a frontal boundary will aid in
moisture pooling across the region. Local instability will begin
to increase as a mid to upper level trough swing by the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
High pressure aloft will dominate the eastern and
southern Caribbean and winds will remain west to west northwest.
After a trough from the east passes through Puerto Rico today,
somewhat drier air with traces of Saharan dust will move through
today and tomorrow. This, and drier mid layers, will limit shower
activity. Nevertheless showers are expected each day. In northwest
Puerto Rico today and in western Puerto Rico later Friday and
Saturday when another area of moisture moves into the area. Winds
will become more northeasterly at the surface through 700 mb late
Friday and this should favor showers on the northeast half of Puerto
Rico and the Luquillo range--especially during the morning hours
Friday and Saturday. Moisture is limited this week and accumulations
will be light..

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday...
A trough aloft is forecast to swing across Atlantic Ocean
increasing local instability. A second frontal boundary will
provide the last push to enhance moisture pooling across the
islands by Sunday or early next week. Model guidance is suggesting
moisture values between percentiles 75th and 99th for March. If
this weather pattern is right, showers and cloudiness will
increase over the islands. In addition, this weather pattern could
support the formation of thunderstorm activity through the
upcoming week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Drier air behind a sfc trof is expected over the eastern
portion of the forecast area from TJNR to TKPK thru 17/04z and VFR
conds with few SHRA will prevail. Isold SHRA are expected ovr ern PR
thru 16/14Z. Then aft 16/17z sct SHRA and mtn obscurations will dvlp
over wrn and interior PR affecting mainly TJMZ and TJBQ with brief
MVFR for CIGS that may last until 17/00z. Winds will be east 10 to
18 kt with sea breeze variations. Winds alf will be easterly 10 to
20 kt up thru FL220. Maximum winds west at 35 kt at FL400.

&&

.MARINE...
A weakly induced surface trough is moving across the Caribbean
waters as a cold front continues eastward across the western
Atlantic. Small craft operators should exercise caution across the
regional waters due to seas up to 6 feet and winds between 15 and
20 knots. Seas are expected to increase across the Atlantic
Offshore waters at up to 7 feet. As a result, a small craft
advisory is in effect for this waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 85 75 / 30 40 20 50
STT 85 73 85 74 / 30 40 20 40
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
149. Tropicsweatherpr
10:23 AM GMT on March 15, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
523 AM AST Wed Mar 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A mid to upper level ridge will continue to result in stable
weather conditions through the workweek. At the surface, a trough
is forecast to moves from the east into the local Caribbean waters
by early Thursday morning. As this trough reach the islands
surface moisture, clouds and trade wind showers are expected to
increase somehow. However, a fair weather pattern is expected to
dominate most of the time through this period.

The ridge pattern aloft is forecast to weakens by the upcoming
weekend into next week. A surface low pressure system and its
associated cold front is expected to moves northwestward across
the Northwestern Atlantic early this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
High pressure aloft drifts slowly eastward over the
Leeward Islands today through Saturday. Underneath several short
wave troughs move through the area, one on Wednesday night and
Thursday and the other late Friday night. Each will carry an
increase in clouds and showers. High pressure in the northeast
central Atlantic today will be reinforced by additional high
pressure invading the western Atlantic later in the week. This will
maintain moderate to fresh east northeast to east southeast trade
winds across the area. Before the first surface trough moves into
the area, however, drier air will prevail and there will be weak
capping at 700 mb.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Thursday...
At the surface, a low pressure system and associated frontal
boundary is expected to move over the Northwestern Atlantic. The
ridge aloft is forecast to weakens as a mid to upper level trough
swing by the Atlantic waters by the end of the weekend into next
week. If this weather pattern is correct, showers and cloudiness
are forecast to increase as instability and surface moisture
increase over the islands. Model guidance are suggesting moisture
pooling above the normal values for this time of the year, as
well as the possibility of thunderstorm activity by early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Moisture associated with a surface trough will move into
the Caribbean sea south of the forecast area btwn 15/18-16/00z
spreading sct SHRA across the area. Brief periods of MVFR are
possible at TKPK, and at TJMZ aft 15/18z. Expect mtn obscurations
after 15/16z. SHRA are also expected to develop ovr west and
northwest PR aft 15/18z. Winds NE-E 10 to 20 kt up thru FL200.
Maximum wind west 40 kt at FL410.

&&

.MARINE...
Buoys across the coastal waters of the islands are indicating
seas between 3 and 5 feet and easterly winds around 10 knots.
Small craft operators should exercise caution across the offshore
waters and Caribbean Passages due to seas up to 6 feet. In
addition, a small craft advisory is in effect for the Atlantic
Offshore waters and Anegada passage from this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 74 87 75 / 10 40 40 40
STT 85 74 84 73 / 10 40 40 40
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
148. Tropicsweatherpr
10:13 AM GMT on March 14, 2017
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
511 AM AST Tue Mar 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Mid to upper level ridge is expected to strengthens today over the
region and continues through the week. The ridge aloft will favor
a stable atmosphere resulting in fair weather conditions with
limited shower activity. However, surges of low level moisture
will reach the islands at times. Therefore shower activity cannot
be ruled out each day. A frontal boundary will move near the
islands early next week...bringing some cloudiness and showers to
the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
An upper level ridge across the southeast Caribbean will move
east across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands Tuesday night
to the Leeward Islands by Friday. The high from the central
Atlantic will extend across Jamaica and then shift north during
the week to maintain moderate to fresh easterly trade wind flow.
Although general drying will continue, it will be mostly at mid
levels now through Saturday. But lower level moisture will be
sufficient to generate showers in western Puerto Rico and possibly
downstream from El Yunque each day beginning around noon.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Wednesday...
A couple of upper level trough are forecast to swing north of the
region across the Atlantic waters on Friday and Sunday. This will
erodes the Upper level ridge. A frontal boundary is expected to
move near the region by the end of the weekend and into the
upcoming week. As the boundary reach the region, moisture pooling
is expected to increase each day and could enhance shower activity
across the islands.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conds are expected to prevail at all TAF sites through the
forecast period with brief MVFR conds possible in and around
TJMZ/TJBQ in limited SHRA. Mtn obscurations are expected in
central and wrn PR btwn 14/16-15/02Z. Expect easterly winds at 10
to 15 kts with sea breeze variations in coastal areas. Winds alf
easterly 10 to 20 kt up to FL110 then northerly 10 to 20 kt up to
FL280. Maximum winds west 35 to 40 kt from FL360-460.

&&

.MARINE...
Marine conditions are expected to deteriorate today, due to
moderate to locally fresh trade winds and a northerly swell
affecting the Atlantic waters. Seas up to 7 feet are expected
across the Atlantic Offshore waters and Anegada Passage. Therefore
a small craft advisory is in effect across the Atlantic Offshore
Waters and the Anegada passage. Elsewhere, small craft operators
should exercise caution due to seas at 6 feet or less.

For the beach goers, there is a high risk of rip currents across
the Atlantic waters of Puerto Rico. The risk of rip currents
across the U.S. Virgin Islands is moderate. Please refer to the
latest Surf Zone Forecast (SRFSJU) issued by WFO San Juan PR for
the latest and up to date info.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 75 81 75 / 20 20 10 20
STT 78 77 78 77 / 20 30 20 40
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
147. Tropicsweatherpr
10:12 AM GMT on March 13, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
456 AM AST Mon Mar 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Mid to upper level ridge will build over the region
through Wednesday. This high pressure aloft will maintain a fairly
stable air mass over the region. Although...a few passing showers
will move across the islands at times...a fair weather pattern
will prevail most of the time. A frontal boundary will reach the
islands early next week...bringing cloudiness and showers to the
region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today though Wednesday...
Dry weather conditions prevailed across Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands overnight. A slot of dry air moved across the local
islands. Very little shower activity was observed over land areas.
This dry weather conditions are expected to prevail most of the
day today, with only some light passing showers affecting the
local region from time to time.

By Tuesday, a patch of low level moisture embedded in the trade
winds is expected to affect the local region, increasing somewhat
the chances for showers across the area. Cloudiness with showers
will linger across the region Wednesday.


.LONG TERM...Thursday through Tuesday...
Strong surface high pressure over the Eastern Atlantic will bring
some Saharan Dust particles on Thursday. Mid to upper level ridge
will hold through Friday. A series of low pressures will amplify
over the Western Atlantic during the weekend...eroding the mid-
upper level ridge. At low levels...frontal boundary will approach
the forecast area from the north between Sunday and Monday. As a
result...moisture transport will be enhanced early next week in
response to the surface front.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all TAF
sites through at least 13/22z. Some light passing showers can be
expected in the vicinity of TIST, TISX and TJSJ during the morning
hours. Low level winds will be mainly east at 10 to 15 kts except
for sea breeze variations in coastal areas.

&&

.MARINE...Seas are subsiding across the coastal waters this morning.
However...seas are forecast to increase to 5-7 feet tonight into Tuesday...
resulting in a Small Craft Advisory across the waters of Northern Puerto
Rico from tonight through Tuesday Night. This will also result in
a high risk of rip current across the north facing beaches of Puerto
Rico on Tuesday. Seas of 3-5 feet with occasional seas of 6 feet will
return Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 85 74 / 20 30 20 20
STT 85 74 84 74 / 10 30 20 30
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
146. Tropicsweatherpr
10:25 AM GMT on March 12, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
458 AM AST Sun Mar 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure across the northeastern
Atlantic will continue to drift to the NE further into the NE
Atlantic for the next few days, meanwhile there will be a surface
low that will enter the western Atlantic over the next few days,
which will help relax the local pressure gradient a bit more.
Ridge aloft should keep a stable atmosphere locally, which will
cause the shower development to be induced due to the combination
of the local effects, diurnal heating and available moisture. A
patch of moisture is expected to affect the southern half of PR in
the morning and then central and western PR in the afternoon while
the rest of the local area should have near normal available
moisture.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Sunday through Tuesday...

In general, fair weather conditions prevailed across the islands
overnight. Satellite imagery showed a layer of clouds over the
islands and the Doppler Radar detected a few sprinkles across the
local waters, eastern Puerto Rico and St Croix overnight. The
Doppler Radar detected more frequent shower activity early this
morning, as a surge of moisture arrived from the east. Once again,
the local temperatures were between the mid and low 70s along the
coastal areas and around the low 60s in the mountainous areas.

A moist air mass is expected to move across the islands today. As a
result, shower activity should increase through the morning hours.
Showers are expected to affect the east half portion of the CWA,
which include eastern PR and the U.S. Virgin Islands, as well as the
surrounding waters. Then, the combination of the available moisture,
local effects and diurnal heating will enhance afternoon convection
along the Cordillera Central and west Puerto Rico, as well as
downwind from the U.S. Virgin Islands and into the eastern sections
of PR.

Under a ridge pattern aloft, the regional weather pattern will be
driven by low level moisture advection. As a result, trade wind
showers will continue at times across the windward areas Monday and
Tuesday. In addition, locally induced afternoon showers across west
Puerto Rico are also expected each day.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Monday...

As the aforementioned SFC low enters the western Atlantic and
moves to the north northeast, the local pressure gradient will be
more relaxed and a frontal boundary will be to the north northwest
of the local islands. This pattern will develop early this week
but the local impact will be minimal until probably late Friday
or early Saturday and throught the weekend. As of now, we expect
mainly easterly winds with typical brief showers in the overnight
and morning hours with showers developing across western PR in the
afternoon, keeping the USVI with isolated to scattered brief
showers through the day. This pattern should also cause seasonable
temperatures to prevail.

Late into the forecast period, the long term guidance is now
suggesting that the frontal boundary that is expected to be
present to the north-northwest of the local islands will move in
and affect the local islands this weekend, bringing considerable
moisture and causing northerly winds by Sunday. No too much detail
to expand on at the moment as confidence is low due to how far
into the forecast period this is and the fact that the long term
guidance has been flop-flopping on this frontal boundary for the
past few days.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds through the morning hours. SHRA will move
en route btwn PR/USVI and the Leeward islands. Mountain obsc and
SHRA/+SHRA are expected across the interior and Western Sections
of PR btwn 12/16-23z. Therefore, BKN-OVC ceilings at FL020-FL090,
as well as MVFR or even brief IFR conds are possible at TJMZ/TJBQ.
Also, TJSJ/TIST/TISX can expect brief passing -SHRA/SHRA. Calm to
light and variable winds til 12/12z, becoming from the E t 10 to
17 kt with higher gusts and sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...Small craft operators should exercise caution as seas
will be up to 6 feet today. The local winds are expected to be up
to 15 knots. Local guidance is suggesting a northerly swell to
invade the local waters late on Sunday into Monday, possibly
causing hazardous seas. Given how much the models have struggled
to accurately forecast northerly swells over the mast few weeks,
it is not out of the realm of possibilities to actually have seas
up to 7 feet across out local Atlantic waters early next week.
There is a moderate risk of rip currents across many of our local
beaches, please refer to our Surf Zone Forecast for more details
on the rip currents and breaking wave heights.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 74 86 75 / 40 20 20 30
STT 84 74 84 74 / 40 20 20 30
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
145. Tropicsweatherpr
10:27 AM GMT on March 11, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
453 AM AST Sat Mar 11 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure across the eastern Atlantic will
continue to drift to the NE into the NE Atlantic for the next few
days. Because of that, the local pressure gradient will continue
to relax and cause moderate winds over the islands. A patch of
slightly drier than normal moisture is expected to move in across
eastern PR this morning and early afternoon while the western and
northwestern quadrant of PR has slightly higher than normal
moisture for the afternoon. Near normal moisture elsewhere. Ridge
aloft should keep a stable atmosphere locally, which will cause
the shower development to be induced due to the combination of
the local effects, diurnal heating and available moisture.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Saturday through Sunday...
In general, very limited shower activity was detected across the
islands overnight. Some light brief showers affected the windward
sections of Puerto Rico and the Northern U.S. Virgin Islands.
Most of the cloudiness dissipated around Midnight leaving mostly
clear to partly cloudy skies across the region. The minimum
temperatures along the coastal areas were between the mid and low
70s and around the low 60s across the mountainous areas.

A dry air mass is expected to move over the region during the
morning hours. This will limit showers across the islands, but a few
of them are possible across E-PR/USVI. At this time, no shower
activity is expected across the Southern Plains, and relative
humidity values are expected to decrease near or below 50%.
Therefore expect mostly clear skies with little or no shower
activity across PR and the USVI this morning. A moisture advection
is expected to increase showers over the region by late this morning
into the afternoon hours. The best chances of showers are for
interior and western sections of Puerto Rico. However, shower
formation is also possible downwind from the U.S. Virgin Islands,
Vieques and Culebra. These showers could affect the eastern sections
of PR, as well as the San Juan Metro Area.

Under a ridge pattern aloft, the regional weather pattern will be
driven by low level moisture advection. As a result, trade wind
showers will continue at times across the windward areas Sunday and
Monday. In addition, locally induced afternoon showers across west
Puerto Rico are also expected each day.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Sunday... Moderate easterly winds are
expected to prevail in the long term with near normal moisture.
Also, the usual pattern for this time of year of brief showers in
the overnight and early morning hours and then some diurnally
induced showers in the afternoon across western PR can be expected
for most of this week except for Thursday. A patch of higher
moisture moves into the local area on Thursday, which will cause
an increase in the shower activity in the brief showers overnight
Wednesday into Thursday and then probably more numerous showers
induced on Thursday afternoon once the moisture combines with the
local effects and diurnal heating. However, from Friday and
through next weekend, everything seems to fall back to the near
normal moisture with overnight and morning brief showers. There is
a frontal boundary that may approach the local islands on
Thursday into Friday but it appears to stay just to our north and
if it approaches even more it may actually be very weak to cause a
frontal passage. Having said that, it is far into the forecast
period so there is considerable uncertainty.

&&

.AVIATION...In general VFR conds are expected this morning through
the morning hours. However, mountain obsc SHRA/+SHRA are expected
across the interior and Western Sections of PR btwn 11/17-23z.
Therefore BKN-OVC ceilings at FL020-FL090 are possible as well as
periods of SHRA/+SHRA at times at TJMZ/TJBQ, elsewhere just passing
-SHRA/SHRA. Calm to light and variable winds til 11/12z, increasing
at 10 to 16 kt from the E-SE and with sea breeze variations.


&&

.MARINE...Seas continue to be hazardous across the offshore
Atlantic waters. Latest buoy observations are suggesting that seas
are now under 7 feet across the nearshore waters and are
diminishing; the local guidance suggests that it should continue
to diminish. For that reason, the small craft advisory for the
Caribbean waters and local passages as well as the nearshore
Atlantic waters were canceled. But, the small craft advisory
continues for the Atlantic offshore waters until 8PM AST tonight.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 83 73 / 20 50 50 20
STT 85 74 83 74 / 20 50 50 20
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
144. Tropicsweatherpr
10:12 AM GMT on March 10, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
431 AM AST Fri Mar 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...SFC high pressure across the central Atlantic will
continue to move east, relaxing the local pressure gradient in the
process and therefore causing the easterly winds to gradually
diminish. A broad high pressure in the mid to upper levels is
expected to develop over the local area, maintaining stable
conditions for the next few days.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Friday through Sunday...

Variably cloudy skies prevailed across PR and the USVI overnight.
Isolated to scattered showers were observed across the USVI as
well as eastern PR with numerous showers noted over the Caribbean
waters. Shower activity will continue across the forecast area,
particularly the Caribbean waters through at least early this
morning. Although a drier air mass will move in by mid morning,
still expect a few passing showers across windward areas followed
by locally induced showers across northwest PR in the afternoon.

Moisture advection will continue at times through Sunday as an
induced surface trough prevails west of the forecast area. This
feature will result in east southeast winds, enhancing the
aforementioned moisture transport. Therefore continue to expect a
similar weather pattern with passing showers across windward areas
and some locally induced afternoon showers across west Puerto Rico
Sat-Sun.

.LONG TERM...The broad trough in the upper levels is expected to
maintain stable weather conditions for the early part of next
week. The long range models are indicating a seasonable weather
pattern with relatively small amounts of rain with normal moisture
which to be expected for this time of year. Nighttime and early
morning brief showers across the local waters, eastern PR, and the
USVI are possible with this expected setup, and then in the
afternoon hours, some showers may develop across western PR,
especially in areas where there is Sea Breeze convergence, but the
amounts of rain at this time appear to be modest.


&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conds are expected through the forecast
period with passing showers in and around the Leeward and USVI
terminals as well as JSJ through the morning hours. Brief MVFR conds
are possible after 10/16z at JBQ in locally induced SHRA.
Easterly winds 10-15 knots are expected today with some sea breeze
variations.


&&

.MARINE...Marine conditions will remain hazardous for the next few
days, at least. There is also a moderate or high risk of rip
currents across most of the local beaches today. At this time
there is still a small craft advisory for most of the local waters
due to seas of up to 10 feet. The local nearshore buoys are
reporting diminishing seas, most of them reporting seas of 5-6
feet, but the latest guidance...which is currently under
estimating the wave heights...is still suggesting of hazardous
seas today over the local waters. For that reason, we kept the
small craft advisory for today and Saturday but then made some
adjustments starting late Saturday and into the weekend. Mariners
can expect winds of 15-20 knots and seas up to 10 feet across the
Atlantic offshore waters.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 85 74 / 20 20 30 20
STT 83 74 83 73 / 20 30 30 50
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
143. Tropicsweatherpr
10:19 AM GMT on March 09, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
455 AM AST Thu Mar 9 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Moisture advection is expected later today to result
in cloudiness and showery conditions tonight and into early Friday
morning. A seasonable weather pattern is expected to prevail Sunday
and into early next week under building mid to upper level ridge
pattern. Hazardous marine conditions as well as dangerous surf
conditions will continue to prevail today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Thursday through Saturday...

Even though the pressure gradient is starting to relax a bit and
it is expected to continue relaxing through the day and on Friday,
the local winds are expected to continue today at around 15-20
MPH from the east to east-northeast with occasional gusts. Sea
breeze variations will be present across the southern and western
coasts of PR. Some quick showers are moving in but are not leaving
more than a few hundredths to maybe a few tenths of an inch of
rain, this is expected to continue through the very early morning
hours, improving a bit during the morning then showers are
expected to develop and affect the northern half of PR with
western PR having the higher chance of significant rain. The rest
of PR and the USVI should observe isolated brief showers today.
Having said that, overall moisture is expected to increase today
into the evening, causing showers to move in in the evening and
overnight tonight. For that reason the forecast for tonight into
early Friday morning calls for numerous showers across portions of
eastern PR and isolated to scattered showers elsewhere.

Today, max temps are expected to be slightly higher with temps
across the lower elevations forecast to reach generally between
83 and 87 degrees and in the mid to upper 70s across the higher
elevations.

&&

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...

A mid to upper level ridge is expected to build across the local
islands Sun-Mon with low level moisture eroding across the eastern
Caribbean. The ridge pattern aloft is then expected to flatten by
the end of the upcoming work week as a mid to upper level trough and
associated surface front moves across the central Atlantic. Winds
are expected to shift east southeast early next week as a surface
low develops across the western Atlantic.

Therefore under this evolving pattern, expect a seasonable weather
pattern with a few passing showers at times much of the upcoming
week. Latest guidance continues to suggest a surface front
remaining north of the area by midweek without major impact at
this time. Warmer temperatures possible Sun and early next week
under east southeast winds.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conds expected through the forecast period with brief VCSH
across the local terminals through 09/14Z except for TJMZ. Winds
continue from the E to ENE with sea breeze variations at around
15KT with gusts across the local terminals except TJPS and TJMZ
through 09/12Z. Thereafter, the winds should pick up to 15-20KT
with gusts to 25-30KT until around 09/22Z. Afternoon SHRA could
affect TJMZ and TJBQ as well as the vicinity of TJSJ and TJPS.
CIGS will be present after 09/14Z at around FL050.



&&

.MARINE...

Although the northerly swell will continue to slowly subside
today...fresh easterly winds will continue to create rough and
hazardous seas across the regional waters through the end of the
week. The local buoy network is indicating seas between 7 and 8
feet with breaking waves around 10 feet. As a result a High Surf
Advisory has been issued through at least 6 PM AST this evening

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 72 83 73 / 40 60 60 20
STT 83 73 83 72 / 30 40 40 20

&&
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
142. Tropicsweatherpr
10:17 AM GMT on March 08, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
500 AM AST Wed Mar 8 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Weather conditions are expected to slowly improve today
as a drier air mass moves in from the north. Moisture advection
is expected once again Fri-Sat to result in cloudiness and showery
conditions early the upcoming weekend. A seasonable weather pattern
is expected to prevail next week under building mid to upper level
ridge pattern. Hazardous marine conditions as well as dangerous
surf conditions will continue today.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Wednesday...through Friday...

Moisture from the prefrontal trough is slowly moving south and
should be south of the local islands by the mid morning hours.
That said, variably to mostly cloudy skies are expected with
isolated to scattered light showers are expected, especially
across the local waters, USVI, and northern and eastern PR in the
morning hours. The chance of rain is expected to decrease for the
afternoon hours. These rain showers are not producing high amounts
of rain and most of the showers are not expected to cause any
flooding. The remnants of the frontal boundary is expected to move
over the islands by this afternoon, which will bring the drier
air we are expecting and therefore the decrease in shower
activity. After the drier air moves in this afternoon, the
precipitable water is forecast to decrease to under an inch
according to the GFS, so if the drier air gets here soon enough in
the day, the chances of afternoon rain across the western and
southwestern sections of PR are smaller, but if the drier air gets
here late in the afternoon then there is a chance of scattered
shower development across the southwestern quadrant of PR this
afternoon and isolated brief showers elsewhere, but mainly fair
weather is expected this afternoon.

The SFC high pressure to our north-northeast will continue to keep
the local pressure gradient relatively tight, so the winds will
continue to be breezy today once again, likely in the 15-25 mph with
occasional higher gusts, mainly across the northern half and eastern
PR and across the USVI, Vieques, and Culebra. Southern PR is
expected to observe slightly lighter winds, about 10-15mph with
occasional gusts to 20mph.

The lingering cloudiness and early morning light rain should help
keep the daytime temperatures relatively cool with daytime max temps
in the lower 80s across most of the lower elevations of PR,
southern PR reaching the mid 80s, while the higher elevations should
observe daytime temps in the upper 60s to mid 70s. The USVI should
observe temps in the low to mid 80s.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday...

Mid level trofiness across the eastern Caribbean will prevail
through at least early the upcoming weekend with a mid to upper
level ridge building in Sun-Mon. The ridge pattern aloft is then
expected to erode Friday and into Saturday as a mid to upper level
trough moves across the central Atlantic. A broad surface high
pressure across the central Atlantic will promote easterly winds
15- 20knots Fri-Sat becoming east southeast Sun-Mon as a surface
low develops across the western Atlantic. Easterly winds Fri-Sat
will promote once again moisture advection with precipitable water
values reaching 1.80 inches. Moisture across the local islands
will erode Sun and into next week as the ridge pattern aloft
builds.

Therefore under this evolving pattern, expect cloudiness and
showery conditions Fri-Sat. The weather pattern will shift to a
more seasonable conditions Sun and into next with trade wind
showers at times. Warmer temperatures possible Sun and early
next week under east southeast winds.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conds expected through the forecast period.
CIGS between FL030 and FL060 will continue through at least 08/14z.
The lights SHRA activity currently present is expected to decrease
after 08/12z as a dry air mass move across the flying area. SFC
winds from the ENE at 15-25 kt with frequent gusts up to 35 kt
expected thru the fcst period. There will be variations in the winds
due to sea breeze for TJPS, easterly winds at 10-15kt gusts to 20kt
or so expected after 08/13Z for TJPS.


&&

.MARINE...Although seas are expected to slowly subside today,
conditions will continue to be hazardous. Seas 10 to 12 feet with
occasional seas up to 14 feet and easterly winds 20-25 knots are
expected to prevail throughout the day. This will continue to
result in dangerous breaking wave of 11-13 feet across coastal
areas. Some coastal flooding also expected along the Atlantic
shoreline.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 81 72 82 72 / 30 20 30 40
STT 82 72 83 73 / 30 20 20 40
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
141. Tropicsweatherpr
12:46 PM GMT on March 07, 2017
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
452 AM AST Tue Mar 7 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Pre-frontal trough and frontal boundary will continue
to bring cloudiness and showery conditions to the forecast region
through at least Wednesday as the frontal boundary is expected to
sink southwards across the region while dissipating. This will
result in continued breezy to windy conditions with periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall from time to time. A very dry air mass
will encompass the region behind the front Wednesday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Moisture from the prefrontal trough is making its way
through the local area today and this moisture is expected to stay
with us through the rest of the day into tonight. That said, mostly
cloudy skies with scattered to numerous showers are expected across
the local area today, especially across the local waters, USVI, and
northern and eastern PR. These rain showers are not producing high
amounts of rain and most of the showers are not expected to cause
significant flooding, but the showers may be persistent. The
weakening front should be over the local islands by early Wednesday,
which will bring drier air and therefore the shower activity and the
cloudiness is expected to diminish.

The SFC high pressure to our north will keep the local pressure
gradient relatively tight, so the winds will continue to be breezy
today, likely in the 15-25 mph with occasional higher gusts across
the windward areas of PR and across the USVI, Vieques, and Culebra.

This cloudiness and rain should keep the daytime temperatures
relatively cool and the lower elevations of PR may observe daytime
max temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s while the higher elevations
should observe daytime temps in the upper 60s to low 70s. The USVI
should observe temps in the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...Seasonable weather conditions are expected from
this Friday through next Wednesday. High pressure system is
expected to dominate the northeast Caribbean with only some
patches of low level moisture affecting the local area from time
to time. Otherwise, tranquil weather conditions are forecast to
occur.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conds expected through the forecast period.
However there will be rain and clouds across the local flying area
which will cause CIGS at about FL040 and brief moments of MVFR conds
at different points during the day due to lower CIGS and possible
lower VIS due to SHRA. The local winds will remain relatively strong
from the ENE to NE at 15 to 25KT with occasional gusts.

&&

.MARINE...Latest buoy observations were showing seas up to 16 feet
with periods of 14 seconds at buoy 41043 located around 170 nm north
northeast of San Juan. In addition, buoy 41053 in San Juan was
showing seas near 13 feet at 10 seconds. As a result, decided to
issue a High Surf Warning and a Coastal Flood Warning for this
morning as dangerous surf conditions and minor coastal flooding
are expected through this afternoon. Model data has been underestimating
this event for almost 3 to 4 feet at buoy 41043. Refer to latest
CFWSJU product for latest information.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 72 81 72 / 70 30 30 20
STT 82 72 82 72 / 60 30 30 30
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
140. Tropicsweatherpr
10:29 AM GMT on March 06, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
500 AM AST Mon Mar 6 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Pre-frontal trough will bring cloudiness and showers
to the local islands until at least Tuesday Night. Breezy to windy
conditions and hazardous seas will continue over the several
days.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Today through Wednesday] ...

Scattered to numerous showers were observed across Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands overnight. These showers produced brief
periods of very heavy rainfall in some areas including the San Juan
metropolitan area. Rainfall accumulations were up to one inch in
isolated spots.

A rather wet pattern is expected for today and continuing through
at least Tuesday afternoon. This activity is primarily associated
with a prefrontal trough which will continue to affect the region
for the next couple of days. As this trough remains over the
area, scattered to numerous showers will continue to affect mainly
the north and northeast sections of Puerto Rico as well the U.S.
Virgin Islands. In general, most if not all of Puerto Rico will
receive some rainfall during the next 24 to 36 hours as the trough
linger over the area. By Wednesday, the prefrontal trough will
exit the local area as a drier air mass invades the local region.

.LONG TERM [Thursday through Tuesday] ...

Easterly winds will return to the forecast area on Thursday as
surface high pressure moves over the Central Atlantic. Deep
moisture associated with the remnants of the frontal boundary
will move westward over the local Caribbean Waters between
Thursdayand Friday. Moisture over the local islands will remain
at normal levels. As a result...morning showers will likely affect
the windward areas followed by scattered convection developing
over the West Interior and Western PR each afternoon. Another
frontal boundary will move over the Western Atlantic early next
week...favoring the moisture transport across the local islands.

&&

.AVIATION...Scattered to numerous showers will continue to affect
most terminals through the forecast period. Brief periods of MVFR
conditions can be expected at TJSJ, TIST, TISX from time to time as
these showers pass by. Breeze conditions are expected across all TAF
sites. Low level winds will be mainly northeast at 15 to 20 kts with
higher gusts in showers.

&&

.MARINE...Strong winds and hazardous seas will continue most of
the week. Therefore...Small Craft and High Surf Advisories as well
as Rip Current Statement will remain in effect over the next few
days. Fresh to strong winds will prevail most of the week...as a
result choppy conditions will likely continue the second part of
the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 79 73 80 72 / 70 70 70 30
STT 81 71 79 72 / 70 70 70 30
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
139. redagainPatti
5:55 AM GMT on March 06, 2017
Just a set of Hugs and love --- flying around the blogs, trying make sure all and everyone has at least one wave of friendship, hug and love for being a part of what made WU an neat place ...... from the Deep South of USA, state of Mississippi .....

I am in Flickr and now -- DISQUS - (same nick and avatar) and have been in FB, since almost the start due to my kids who first got me into that web... lol ... anyway look for my avatar as it is also the same in here, FB, and DISQUS
I plan to keep that the tiny photo up for a few months..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
138. Tropicsweatherpr
10:33 AM GMT on March 05, 2017
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
440 AM AST Sun Mar 5 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Trade wind showers are expected today under NE
winds. Weather conditions will shift to breezy and showery
Mon-Tue as a surface front and associated prefrontal trough
approaches from the north northwest with the local pressure
gradient tightening across the local islands. A seasonable
weather pattern is expected Wed through the upcoming weekend
but still breezy.

&&

.Short Term / Sunday through Tuesday /...
Variably cloudy skies prevailed across Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands overnight. Isolated showers were noted mainly
across the coastal waters with some of these showers affecting
the north and northeast sections of Puerto Rico. These showers
were moving quickly without leaving any significant rainfall
accumulations. Patches of low level moisture embedded in the
trade winds will continue to affect the local islands today.

Weather conditions will shift to breezy and showery Mon-Tue
as a surface front and associated prefrontal trough approaches
from the north northwest with the local pressure gradient
tightening across the forecast area. As a result, a rather wet
pattern is forecast to affect the local area beginning early
Monday and continuing through at least Tuesday night as the
aformentioned surface front and associated prefrontal trough
affects the local area.

&&

Long Term / Wednesday through Sunday /...
As the remnants of the surface front move further south, a drier
air mass will move in Wed and hold through the upcoming weekend.
However, latest guidance continues to suggest patches of low level
moisture moving across the local islands at times. Migratory
surface highs north of the area will promote a tight pressure
gradient with east northeast winds much of the forecast period. At
upper levels, a short-lived mid level trough is expected Wed-Thu
with a ridge pattern building in from the west Fri-Sat and hold
through early next week.

As a result, expect breezy conditions and a seasonable weather
pattern with trade wind showers at times across windward areas
followed by some locally induced afternoon showers across leeward
areas Wed through the upcoming weekend. Pleasant temperatures
will continue under northeasterly winds.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected across the forecast area
through at least 05/22z. However, passing showers embedded in the
easterly trades will result in isolated to scattered -SHRA/SHRA
across the Nrn Leewards, USVI and TJSJ/TJNR Terminals fm 05/10Z-
05/16Z, and later across TJMZ. This can result in tempo MVFR
conditions. Surface winds are expected mainly from the east at 10
to 15 kts this morning, shifting to the northeast by late morning
into the afternoon hours and increasing to around 20 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface highs north of the area will tighten the local pressure
gradient to result in fresh northeast winds much of this week. A
northerly swell is forecast to invade the local Atlantic waters
by Mon. Therefore, rough and hazardous seas are expected to
prevail during the next several days. Seas 5 to 7 feet with
occasional seas up to 9 feet today...but building 6 to 8 feet with
occasional seas up to 10 feet tonight. Building seas will also
result in a high risk of rip currents late today and into Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 73 81 74 / 40 60 60 50
STT 86 73 83 73 / 40 60 60 50
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
137. Tropicsweatherpr
10:25 AM GMT on March 04, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
456 AM AST Sat Mar 4 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure across the central Atlantic
will continue to slowly move further to the east fort the next
few days. A frontal boundary will approach the regional waters
while dissipating. A strong surface high pressure will build
across the western Atlantic behind the front early next week.
Breeze conditions will return to the area by then. Patches of low
level moisture embedded in the trade winds will affect the local
area from time to time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...An area of cloudiness with isolated to scattered
showers affect the northeast, north and north central Puerto Rico
overnight. These showers were moving quickly westward without
leaving any significant rainfall accumulations. Latest satelite
images are showing another area of moisture approaching the U.S.
Virgin Islands early this morning. This area of moisture will move
across the local islands late this morning and this afternoon.
Although these showers are expected to move quickly, some showers
could produce moderate to heavy rainfall in isolated spots.

Trade winds will continue to transport patches of low level
moisture across the area during the weekend. Local area will
continue to be dominated by a surface high pressure system which
is located across the central Atlantic. This feature is expected
to move further east. A frontal boundary will approach the local
area by Monday, increasing somewhat the chances for showers. By
Tuesday, a strong high pressure system is expected to exit the
eastern U.S coast, and is expected to dominate the western
Atlantic. As a result, winds are expected to increase beginning
on Tuesday and continuing through most of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected across the local
flying area through the forecast period. Winds will continue from
the east at about 10-15kt this morning increasing to 15-20kt with
higher gusts after 04/16Z. An area of moisture is expected to move
across the area. As a result, some showers are expected in the
vicinity of the TAF sites through the forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...Seas has diminished somewhat across the local waters.
However, Seas up to 7 feet continue affecting the offshore
Atlantic and Caribbean waters as well as local passages. Small
Craft advisories will continue in effect through this afternoon.
Seas are expected to diminish below small craft advisory criteria
tonight. However, seas will deteriorate once again early next
week, as winds increases up to 22 kts.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 83 73 84 74 / 50 50 20 30
STT 85 73 84 73 / 30 50 20 40

&&
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
136. Tropicsweatherpr
10:11 AM GMT on March 03, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
455 AM AST Fri Mar 3 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Surface high pressure ridge will shift farther
eastward into the Central Atlantic today. This overall pattern
will result in a gradual weakening of the local pressure gradient
and slight decrease in the easterly trade winds today and
Saturday. Another strong high pressure system will exit the U.S.
east coast by Sunday, and will build across the western Atlantic
by monday, tightening the pressure gradient. The remnants of a
frontal boundary are expected to move across the area Monday and
Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Variably cloudy skies prevailed across Puerto Rico
and the U.S. Virgin Islands overnight. An area of cloudiness with
showers moved across the local area. Some isolated to scattered
showers were observed across the eastern half of Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands. This area of moisture will continue to
affect the region through late this morning. For this afternoon,
an area of dry air is expected to encompass the region, limiting
the shower activity across the region.

A surface high pressure system will continue in control of the
local weather conditions throughout the weekend. Some trade wind
showers are expected, but overall will remain dry. By the early
part of next week, the remnants of a frontal boundary will move
across the region Monday and Tuesday increasing the shower
activity across the region. After the passage of this boundary, a
strong high pressure system will build across the area.


&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected through the forecast
period across the local flying area. Easterly winds between 10-15kt
are expected early this morning, increasing to 15-20kt with
higher gusts after 03/16Z. VCSH are possible across the Leeward,
USVI and TJSJ taf sites. SHRA is possible at TJMZ between 03/18Z
and 03/22Z.

&&

.MARINE...Buoy 41053 in San Juan was showing seas up to 6.5 feet
and buoy 41043 located around 200 miles north northeast of San
Juan was showing seas up to 8 feet. As a result, Small Craft
advisories will continue in effect through at least Saturday as
strong winds continue to produce hazardous marine conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...For today, elevated fire danger is expected across
the southern slopes of Puerto Rico. As a result, a fire danger
statement will be issued for the southern plains and southwest
coast of Puerto Rico. Refer to this product for more information.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 75 84 74 / 50 20 20 50
STT 86 74 84 72 / 50 30 20 50
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
135. Tropicsweatherpr
10:13 AM GMT on March 02, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
512 AM AST Thu Mar 2 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough will swing across Northeast Caribbean
followed by a mid to upper level ridge, which is expected to build
over the region through the weekend. A surface high pressure will
move eastward north of the region into Central Atlantic today.
The trade wind cap is expected to dominate the upper level trough,
and the surface high pressure will continue to produce breezy
conditions across the Northeast Caribbean. This will result in
trade wind showers at times across the local islands during the
next several days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tranquil weather conditions prevailed across the local islands
overnight. Just a few passing showers moved across the windward
sections of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Some of these
showers had periods of moderate to heavy rainfall but were quick
and no significant rainfall accumulation was detected.

A weak upper level trough over the Northeast Caribbean will
continue to produce showers across the Local waters. In addition,
a surface high pressure to the north of the region will induce
breezy conditions through the next few days. Under the
aforementioned weather pattern, trade wind showers are expected
to move across the local waters, eastern PR and the USVI through
the morning hours. Overall limited shower activity with trade wind
showers at times are expected today across the forecast area.

A strong surface high pressure to the north of the region will
continue to produce breezy conditions across the region through
the next few days. Then a cold front is forecast to move across
the Western Atlantic and into the regional waters late in the
weekend. If the model are correct...moisture and instability will
increase over the region to result in a better chance for showers
across portions of the islands the first part of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the
forecast period. Trade wind showers expected over the waters with
some reaching sections of the islands at time. SHRA possible between
16z-22z across western PR, impacting mainly TJMZ. Easterly winds
will continue at 5-15 knots through at least 13z...increasing 15-25
kts with higher gusts and sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...
Hazardous marine conditions are expected to continue through at
least Saturday. Mariners can expect seas up to 8 feet and winds
between 15 and 25 knots with higher gusts. A moderate to high risk
of rip current continues across the local waters of Puerto Rico
and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

&&

.Climate...
A Hydrological Outlook...ESFSJU...was issued. Refer to the Spring
Flood Outlook to learn more about the current conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 73 85 75 / 20 40 30 40
STT 83 75 83 75 / 20 30 20 30
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
134. Tropicsweatherpr
10:20 AM GMT on March 01, 2017
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
427 AM AST Wed Mar 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Broad upper trough north and east of the region will become
amplified and sink south across the northeast Caribbean through Thursday.
The local islands should however remain the subsident side of the trough.
The trough will then fill and lift northward on Friday into the weekend.
Mid level ridge will continue to hold and build across the northeast
Caribbean into the upcoming weekend. Strong surface high pressure
will continue to build and spread eastward into the central Atlantic
and north of the region through Friday. This will maintain a tight
local pressure gradient and moderate to strong easterly trade
winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The strong easterly trades will transport fragment
of shallow low level moisture across the region through at least
Thursday. This will allow for occasional periods of passing
showers with brief gusty winds especially during the late evening
and overnight hours. During the day shower activity should
diminish across the north and eastern sections of the islands
leaving partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies and fresh easterly
trade winds. Afternoon showers should be then focused more over
part of the central and west sections of Puerto Rico, and on the
lee side of the rest of the islands. The shower activity should be
in the form of streamer like convection, therefore no significant
rainfall accumulations are expected the shower activity should be
fast moving and of short duration.

By Friday and into the weekend the local pressure gradient should
weaken in response to the high pressure ridge shifting farther east
across the Atlantic and a cold front entering and moving across
the west Atlantic. Therefore expect lesser moisture transport in
the decreasing easterly trade winds which in turn will result in
lesser amounts of late evening and early morning passing shower
activity with somewhat drier conditions for Friday and Saturday.

By sunday and into early next week, winds are to become more
northeasterly as high pressure ridge will build once again across
the west Atlantic. This pattern will bring periods of early morning
showers due to low level moisture convergence and the increasing
northeast trade winds.

&&

.AVIATION....Brief MVFR conditions will be possible until 01/15z in
the Leeward Islands otherwise VFR conditions will prevail across the
flying area through the forecast period. VCSH in SCT SHRA are
expected across TJSJ, TIST, TISX, TNCM and TKPK today but decreasing
aft 01/15z. SCT SHRA will dvlp btwn 01/18-22Z wrn/swrn PR with some
mtn obscurations. Winds will be mainly from the ENE at 15-30 kts
below FL180. Maximum winds west at 40 kts at FL410 at 02/00z.

&&

.MARINE...Moderate to fresh easterly winds will persist across most
of the regional waters except for the local passages and offshore Atlantic
and Caribbean waters, where winds may become fresh to locally strong
at times. The wind driven seas will create hazardous marine conditions
through the end of the work week.

The moderate to strong trade winds will cause seas to rise and
therefore increase the risk of strong rip currents on the north
and east facing beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra,Vieques and St
Croix.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 86 75 / 40 40 40 30
STT 85 74 86 75 / 30 40 40 30
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
133. Tropicsweatherpr
10:09 AM GMT on February 28, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
506 AM AST Tue Feb 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Bands of moisture bearing scattered showers will pass
through the area bringing the most rain to the windward sides of
the islands. Showers diminish a little on Thursday but return over
the weekend. Cold fronts, remain well north but will be of some
effect in the local area.

At upper levels...High pressure extends from the southwest
Caribbean across Hispaniola, but will slowly weaken as a trough
moves into the area Wednesday and Wednesday night. Weak high
pressure approaches from the west, but a much broader trough to
the north forces it to the east over the weekend. A branch of the
subtropical jet will pass by just north of the area early next
week.

At mid levels...High pressure extending out of the northwest
Caribbean will remain just north of the local area until Saturday
when a broad long wave trough passes north of the area from the
west. The trough will dig weakly into the western tropical
Atlantic over the weekend and early next week to leave us in
northwesterly flow. Mid levels remain mostly dry.

At lower levels...High pressure sinking east southeast into the
central Atlantic will cause gradients to tighten over the area
today and Wednesday, resulting in moderate to strong winds across
the local area. Bands of shallow showers moving through will ride
these winds to bring brief modest amounts of rain to the area today
and Wednesday as well as over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Fast moving showers in several bands of moisture
moving through the area have brought light amounts of rain to
portions of Culebra, Vieques and the U.S. Virgin Islands and the
northeast half of the island of Puerto Rico. The heaviest amounts
fell over the north coastal area of Puerto Rico and the adjacent
waters with amounts of up to four tenths of an inch since midnight
as measured by National Weather Service Doppler Radar. These
showers will continue coming in through Wednesday. East northeast
trade wind flow is relatively moist in the lower levels and
precipitable water varies only a little between now and Monday,
reaching a minimum Thursday morning and then increasing through
Friday and again Monday through the following Wednesday. A
passing trough at upper levels will accentuate the rain early next
week but, over all, amounts will be under one half inch everywhere
even during the wettest episodes. The approach of cold fronts
will assist some of the shallow shower formation, but all fronts
are currently forecast to remain well north of the forecast area
through at least the next 10 to 12 days.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds are expected to prevail at all TAF sites with
brief MVFR conds possible early this morning in and around
TJBQ/TJSJ/TIST/TISX and the Leeward terminals in -SHRA. SHRA
development likely aft 28/16z across SW PR, and this may result in
VCSH at TJMZ through 28/22z. Easterly winds 15-20 knots with sea
breeze variations.


&&

.MARINE...Sea have begun to increase across all but the most
protected waters and seas at buoy 41043 have risen above 7 feet.
Model solutions have tended to increase from run to run and now
show 9 foot seas in the northeast corner of the forecast area
early Wednesday through Thursday. Have not yet introduced these
heights to our forecast since they will depend on winds stronger
than forecast to verify, but will monitor in case winds of 23 to
25 knots--sustained--are found. Seas in the outer waters are
expected to continue at or above 7 feet through at least Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 84 75 / 40 40 40 30
STT 85 74 86 75 / 30 40 40 30

&&
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
132. Tropicsweatherpr
10:09 AM GMT on February 28, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
506 AM AST Tue Feb 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Bands of moisture bearing scattered showers will pass
through the area bringing the most rain to the windward sides of
the islands. Showers diminish a little on Thursday but return over
the weekend. Cold fronts, remain well north but will be of some
effect in the local area.

At upper levels...High pressure extends from the southwest
Caribbean across Hispaniola, but will slowly weaken as a trough
moves into the area Wednesday and Wednesday night. Weak high
pressure approaches from the west, but a much broader trough to
the north forces it to the east over the weekend. A branch of the
subtropical jet will pass by just north of the area early next
week.

At mid levels...High pressure extending out of the northwest
Caribbean will remain just north of the local area until Saturday
when a broad long wave trough passes north of the area from the
west. The trough will dig weakly into the western tropical
Atlantic over the weekend and early next week to leave us in
northwesterly flow. Mid levels remain mostly dry.

At lower levels...High pressure sinking east southeast into the
central Atlantic will cause gradients to tighten over the area
today and Wednesday, resulting in moderate to strong winds across
the local area. Bands of shallow showers moving through will ride
these winds to bring brief modest amounts of rain to the area today
and Wednesday as well as over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Fast moving showers in several bands of moisture
moving through the area have brought light amounts of rain to
portions of Culebra, Vieques and the U.S. Virgin Islands and the
northeast half of the island of Puerto Rico. The heaviest amounts
fell over the north coastal area of Puerto Rico and the adjacent
waters with amounts of up to four tenths of an inch since midnight
as measured by National Weather Service Doppler Radar. These
showers will continue coming in through Wednesday. East northeast
trade wind flow is relatively moist in the lower levels and
precipitable water varies only a little between now and Monday,
reaching a minimum Thursday morning and then increasing through
Friday and again Monday through the following Wednesday. A
passing trough at upper levels will accentuate the rain early next
week but, over all, amounts will be under one half inch everywhere
even during the wettest episodes. The approach of cold fronts
will assist some of the shallow shower formation, but all fronts
are currently forecast to remain well north of the forecast area
through at least the next 10 to 12 days.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds are expected to prevail at all TAF sites with
brief MVFR conds possible early this morning in and around
TJBQ/TJSJ/TIST/TISX and the Leeward terminals in -SHRA. SHRA
development likely aft 28/16z across SW PR, and this may result in
VCSH at TJMZ through 28/22z. Easterly winds 15-20 knots with sea
breeze variations.


&&

.MARINE...Sea have begun to increase across all but the most
protected waters and seas at buoy 41043 have risen above 7 feet.
Model solutions have tended to increase from run to run and now
show 9 foot seas in the northeast corner of the forecast area
early Wednesday through Thursday. Have not yet introduced these
heights to our forecast since they will depend on winds stronger
than forecast to verify, but will monitor in case winds of 23 to
25 knots--sustained--are found. Seas in the outer waters are
expected to continue at or above 7 feet through at least Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 75 84 75 / 40 40 40 30
STT 85 74 86 75 / 30 40 40 30

&&
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
131. Tropicsweatherpr
10:33 AM GMT on February 27, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
505 AM AST Mon Feb 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Bands of showers will pass through the area in
increasing trade wind flow. Showers will taper off as moisture
diminishes through Friday, but high pressure will drive moderate
to fresh trade winds through the week.

At upper levels...A ridge over the central Caribbean will weaken
and then shift to the western Caribbean by mid week. A trough will
deepen and sharpen over the area on Wednesday and move into the
tropical Atlantic by Thursday. A weak ridge will over the area on
Friday leaving high pressure over most of northern South America
and west northwest flow over the local area.

At mid levels...High pressure will continue across the Greater
Antilles and north of Puerto Rico through Saturday. The ridge then
shifts south through the areas on Sunday.

At lower levels...High pressure moved into the western Atlantic
this morning and will build slightly as it moves north of the
local area east of Virginia. Then it will diminish somewhat and
move into the central Atlantic by Friday. A second high will leave
the east coast of the United States on Sunday. These highs will
keep moderate to fresh trade wind flow mostly from the east
northeast. Bands of moisture will pass through the area Monday and
Tuesday. Areas of moisture will pass over the local area south of
a front late in the week and over the upcoming weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Bands of convection some with tops over 15 kft, have
passed through the area leaving amounts up to four tenths of an
inch in northeastern Puerto Rico. San Juan has had 16 hundredths
since midnight. Showers will continue through mid morning while
tapering off, then return overnight tonight for another round.
Accumulations will be light. Although isolated showers will occur
Wednesday through Friday better moisture will not occur until the
weekend. Cold fronts are tending to remain well north of the area,
but are still fostering some upward vertical motion between the
tropical air south of the area and the front over the weekend.
High pressure aloft is tending to keep mid levels relatively dry
otherwise.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conds are expected at all TAF sites with
brief MVFR conds possible early this morning in and around
JSJ/IST/ISX and the Leeward terminals in brief passing showers.
SHRA development likely aft 27/16z across SW PR, and this may
result in VCSH at JMZ through 27/22z. Easterly winds around 15
knots and sea breeze variations expected today.


&&

.MARINE...Winds increase today through Wednesday and seas become
rough and hazardous beginning early tonight. Small craft
advisories will remain up in the outer Atlantic waters at least
through Friday, but this time the Caribbean waters will also be
affected as seas will be mostly wind driven. Some north swell will
however be present during the week adding some confusion to the
seas in the Atlantic and passages. Winds will exceed 22 knots at
times over the local waters mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 76 85 76 / 60 30 40 20
STT 85 75 85 75 / 60 30 40 20

&&
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
130. Tropicsweatherpr
10:29 AM GMT on February 26, 2017
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
408 AM AST Sun Feb 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A surface low pressure system will continue to move
northeastward across the northwest Atlantic today. A strong
surface high pressure will move over the southwestern Atlantic
pushing the associated frontal boundary eastward. This high
pressure will maintain the local winds mostly from the east this
morning and from the east to east-northeast this afternoon and
Monday. As the surface high pressure moves toward the central
Atlantic, patches of low level moisture embedded in the northeast
trades are expected to moves across the region early in the week
increasing the chances of showers.


&&

.DISCUSSION...Under an easterly wind flow, Doppler weather radar
detected isolated showers moving westward across the U.S. Virgin
Islands and eastern sections of Puerto Rico overnight and early
this morning. Not significant precipitation was observed
elsewhere across the region so far this morning. Under a relative
stable weather pattern, only small patches of moisture associated
with the easterly wind flow are expected to affect the eastern and
sections of Puerto Rico during the rest of the morning hours, but
mostly sunny skies are expected across most of the region. The
limited moisture in combination with daytime heating, sea breeze
convergence and other local effect are still expected to produce
some cloudiness and showers across interior and western Puerto
Rico this afternoon.


An increase in wind speed is expected early in the week, as the
surface high pressure strengthens over the central Atlantic just
north of the region. A generally dry and stable weather conditions
are expected to prevail over the region today. By early next
week, areas of moisture embedded in the trades will move across
the region from time to time, increasing the frequency of trade
wind showers across the local islands and surrounding waters.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds will prevail across all terminals through the
forecast period. Few passing showers will affect the coastal waters
N and E of PR and en route btw PR and the Northern Leeward islands
til 26/12Z. Sf winds light and variable...bcmg fm E-NE aft 26/14Z...
incr 10-15 kts aft 26/13z with sea breeze variations. L/lvl wnds fm
E-NE 5-15 kts Blo FL100...bcm fm S-SW up to FL250...then fm N and
incr w/ht abv. Mostly SKC abv FL100. No sig operational impacts ovr
local flying area or at local TAF sites attm.

&&

.MARINE...Seas have diminished near 5 feet across the offshore
Atlantic waters. Seas are expected to increase once again Monday
night into Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 74 85 74 / 20 20 20 40
STT 83 73 85 74 / 20 20 20 40
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
129. Tropicsweatherpr
10:13 AM GMT on February 25, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
418 AM AST Sat Feb 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A surface low pressure and associated frontal boundary
across the western Atlantic in combination with a surface high
pressure across the central Atlantic will continue to produce a
southeasterly wind flow across the region until at least Sunday. A
strong surface high pressure will move over the southwestern
Atlantic on Sunday. As this happens, the local wind is expected to
shift from the east on Sunday and from the East to east-northeast
on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Under a southeast wind flow, Doppler weather radar
detected isolated showers moving northwestward across the U.S.
Virgin Islands and eastern sections of Puerto Rico overnight and
early this morning. Under an stable weather pattern, only small
patches of moisture associated with the southeasterly wind flow
are expected to affect the eastern and southeastern sections of
Puerto Rico during the rest of the morning hours, but mostly sunny
skies are expected across most of the region. The limited moisture
in combination with daytime heating, sea breeze convergence and
other local effect are still expected to produce some cloudiness
and showers across interior and northwest Puerto Rico this
afternoon, but not widespread or significant precipitation is
expected. Under an east southeast low level wind flow, warmer
than normal temperatures are expected this afternoon mostly across
the northern coastal areas of Puerto Rico.

As the low pressure center an associated frontal boundary moves
northeastward toward the northwest Atlantic, a strong surface high
pressure is expected to move across the southwestern Atlantic.
This feature will induce an easterly low level wind flow across
the region on Sunday and an east to east-northeast wind flow by
Monday. An increase in wind speed is also expected as the surface
high pressure strengthens north of the region. Dry and generally
stable conditions are expected to continue over the region today
and Sunday. By early next week, a prefrontal trough will move back
across the region, increasing the frequency of trade wind showers
across the local islands.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds at all TAF sites through the fcst prd. Few
clds FL025..FL060...SKC abv. Isold -SHRA/SHRA. Prevailing east to
southeast wind flow at 10 knots or less except for local sea breeze
variations along the coastal areas. Wnds fm se 5-15 kts blo FL200...
bcmg fm SW to W and incr w/ht abv. No sig operational or wx impact
attm.

&&

.MARINE...Mariners can expect seas between 5 and 7 feet across
the offshore Atlantic Waters early this morning. Seas are expected
to decrease to 4 to 6 feet by mid morning and will continue to
slowly subside today. Beach goers should exercise caution due to a
high risk of rip currents for the northwest to northeast facing
beaches of Puerto Rico and for the northern facing beaches of
Culebra and the northern USVI. Small Craft Advisory is in effect
until early this morning for the offshore Atlantic waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 74 85 74 / 20 20 20 40
STT 83 73 85 74 / 20 20 20 40

&&
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
128. Tropicsweatherpr
10:00 AM GMT on February 24, 2017
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
509 AM AST Fri Feb 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Low pressure system and associated cold front moving
across the western Atlantic and high pressure anchored across the
north central Atlantic will continue to induce a south to southeast
wind flow across the region through at least Saturday. Mid to upper
level ridge will continue to gradually erode aloft today through
Saturday as a polar trough will move across the west Atlantic.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The prevailing winds are expected to remain from the
south to southeast today with a gradual decrease in moisture advection
during the rest of the day and into the weekend. However patches of
shallow low to mid level moisture and a few showers will move across
the regional waters and affect portions of the islands during the
rest of the morning hours. Thereafter mostly sunny skies and fair
weather expected with only a few afternoon showers possible mainly
along and near the north coastal sections of Puerto rico as well
as over portions of the northern Virgin islands. Shower activity
will be limited today as an overall drying trend is expected.


For Saturday...mostly fair weather skies expected under a prevailing
light to moderate south to southeast wind flow. Slightly warmer afternoon
high temperatures are forecast for today and Saturday along the northern
half of PR and around the San Juan metro area, as lesser cloud cover
is expected. On Sunday and into early next week, winds are to become
more easterly one again and increase as high pressure ridge will build
north and west of the region once again. By then, expect a slight increase
in passing trade wind low level clouds and showers especially during
the late evening and early morning hours. Shower activity during the
day should however be limited and of short durations due to the increasing
trade winds and strengthening cap inversion aloft. So far no significant
weather feature in sight for the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected across the local flying
area with VCSH possible across the Leewards and USVI taf sites due
to small areas of low level moisture embedded in the trades, moving
across the region until 24/15Z. Southeast winds will continue light
and variable until 24/14Z, increasing to 10-15 knots after 24/14Z
with sea breeze variations. Mountain obscurations likely until
24/17Z.

&&

.MARINE...Northerly swell continued to arrive across the local
Atlantic waters and passages is still expected to peak this
morning. Buoy 41043 suggests offshore Seas now near 9 feet and
between 11-12 secs while the near shore buoys suggest Seas near 6
feet around 11 secs. Small craft advisories are in effect for the
Atlantic waters and local passages. Small craft should exercise
caution elsewhere except for the near shore coastal waters of
west and south Puerto Rico. There is a high risk of rip currents
for the Northwest through northeast coastlines of PR as well as
Culebra and the northern U.S Virgin Islands.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 73 86 75 / 20 0 30 20
STT 82 72 84 73 / 30 10 30 20
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
127. Tropicsweatherpr
9:57 AM GMT on February 23, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
427 AM AST Thu Feb 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Mid to upper level high pressure ridge will build overhead and
remain in place through Friday, then gradually weaken and shift eastward
on Saturday and Sunday as a polar trough will move across the western
Atlantic. Surface high pressure will continue to build and spread eastward
into the north central Atlantic by Friday as an area of low pressure
and associated cold front will enter the southwest Atlantic today while
lifting east northeast across the west Atlantic. This overall pattern
will cause the local winds to become more easterly today then southeasterly
by Friday as the surface high becomes reinforced across the north central
and northeast Atlantic.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The prevailing northeast winds will continue to
transport patches of shallow low level moisture and occasional
showers to the regional waters and portions of the north and east
coastal sections of the islands during the rest of the morning
hours. By late morning cloudiness and shower activity should diminish
resulting in mostly sunny fair weather skies. During the afternoon
hours, expect the prevailing winds to become more southeasterly
and gradually increase. This along with local and diurnal effect
will lead to increasing cloudiness and isolated to scattered
shower development across parts of the central and northwest
sections of Puerto Rico as well as around parts of the San juan
metro area. For the rest of the islands, expect limited shower
activity with only a few quick quick passing showers in isolated
spots as mostly sunny skies should prevail during the day.

On Friday and into the weekend similar weather conditions expected with
brief passing early morning showers forecast to affect mainly the east
coastal sections of the islands. This will be followed by mostly isolated
afternoon showers across portions of the northern half of Puerto Rico.
Mostly fair weather skies expected for the USVI. Under a prevailing
southeast low level wind flow on Friday and Saturday, expect slightly
warmer daytime high temperature along the north half of Puerto Rico
and the San Juan metro area.

By Sunday and Monday, the formation of a weak prefrontal trough will
create sufficient low level moisture convergence across the region
to increase chances of early morning and afternoon convection mainly
over parts of the interior sections of Puerto Rico. By Tuesday of
next week ...the Atlantic surface high is forecast to build once
again north of the region and consequently tighten the local pressure
gradient. This in turn will increase the east to northeast trade winds...
which will be also be supported by increasing subsidence aloft and a
gradual drying trend across the region once again.


&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected across the local flying
area for the next 24 hours. However ISOLD-SCT SHRA expected in
the vicinity of most of the terminals this morning except for
TJMZ. Passing SHRA ovr the coastal waters and en route between
islands til 23/14z. Few tops nr FL220. Low level winds are
expected to become more from the E to ESE after 23/12Z. ISOLD to
SCT SHRA is expected this afternoon, with VCSH possible across
the local terminals through the rest of the day.

&&

.MARINE...The wave watch model guidance continued to suggest
building seas across the local Atlantic water during the day.
Recent data from buoy 41043 showed seas now up to 7 feet in the
past few hours. Therefore small craft advisory will go into effect
for the Atlantic outer waters from 23/18Z. Small craft operators
should exercise caution across the rest of the Atlantic waters and
local passages. Winds are also expected to increase and become
more east to southeast today and through Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 87 73 87 74 / 20 20 20 10
STT 85 73 82 74 / 30 20 20 20

&&
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
126. Tropicsweatherpr
10:17 AM GMT on February 22, 2017
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
452 AM AST Wed Feb 22 2017

SYNOPSIS...Deep layered area of low pressure and associated polar
trough was now located across central Atlantic and northeast of
the northern leewards. The trough axis extends southwest across
the lesser antilles and will continue to shift east southeast.
The departing trough along with a broad surface high pressure
moving across the west Atlantic will continue to induce a
northerly flow across the region today. The Low level winds are
expected to remain dominant from the north through the early
afternoon, then gradually become more to northeasterly later in
the afternoon and overnight as the high pressure ride migrates
eastward across the Atlantic. The prevailing wind flow is then
expected to return east to southeast by Thursday and Friday as
the ridge will move into and then linger across the central
and northeast Atlantic into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Under the influence of northerly winds, expect isolated
to scattered fast moving showers mainly of light to moderate intensity
mainly along the northern coast of Puerto Rico and the USVI during
the rest of the early morning hours. By the late morning and early
afternoon, cloudiness and shower activity should diminish along the
north coastal areas. During the rest of the day,cloud development
should then be focused along central mountain range and the south
coastal plains of Puerto Rico. Elsewhere expect only brief streamer
like shower activity during the afternoon hours as mostly fair weather
and sunny skies should prevail with pleasant daytime temperatures
and limited shower activity.

On Thursday and by the end of the week expect the trade winds to become
more southeasterly as the high pressure ridge shifts eastward across
the Central Atlantic,c and a cold front will enter and move across
the west Atlantic. This expected southerly low level wind flow will
bring warmer temperatures especially along the north coastal areas
and an even drier airmass to the region. Therefore looking for
unseasonably warmer temperature at least for Friday through Saturday
along the northern half of PR, then a return to near normal temperature
by Sunday into early next week. So far no significant weather maker
in sight for the next several days.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions expected across the local flying
area for the next 24 hours. Some light and brief showers can be
expected in the vicinity of the terminals this morning. Low level
winds are expected to be more from the NE to ENE after 22/12Z at
about 10 KT with sea breeze variations. SCT SHRA expected to develop
across southern PR after 22/18Z inducing VCSH at TJPS and possibly
affect the terminal at times between 22/18Z and 22/23Z.

&&

.MARINE...Seas and winds will diminish somewhat early today to 5
feet or less and up to 10 knots over the coastal waters. However a
gradual increase in winds and seas is expected later this afternoon
and for the rest of the week with seas up to 7 feet expected to
approach the offshore Atlantic waters by Thursday and Friday due
to pulses from a northerly swell. There is a moderate risk of rip
currents for most of the north facing beaches of the islands. The
increasing winds and seas by the latter part of the week will again
cause the risk of rip currents to become high again on Thursday and
Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 82 73 86 73 / 30 30 30 20
STT 84 74 82 73 / 30 30 30 20
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
125. Tropicsweatherpr
10:19 AM GMT on February 21, 2017
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
458 AM AST Tue Feb 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Upper trof north of the area and associated weak
surface boundary will continue to move to the east and exit the
forecast area today. Ridge pattern will follow from the west and
drier fair weather is expected to prevail for the rest of the
week. Northerly winds will shift to the southeast on Thursday as
surface high moves north of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Scattered to numerous showers with isolated
thunderstorms over the Atlantic coastal waters moved across the
forecast area during the overnight. The heaviest showers remained
just north of the northern USVI. For the next few hours
additional showers are expected to move across the islands but
sunny skies are expected to return by the late morning hours.
Overnight temperatures were in the low to mid 60s across the
higher elevations to the low 70s across coastal areas.

Overall fair weather conditions are forecast to prevail for the
rest of the week as ridge pattern builds from the west and cap
inversion keep moisture below 800 MB. However, diurnally induced
afternoon showers cannot be ruled out each day and trade wind
showers should prevail across the northern and eastern coastal
areas through Thursday. Another upper trof and associated surface
boundary are forecast to move north of the area by late Sunday
enhancing shower activity once again.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT SHRA will affect the flying area thru 14Z. As a
result, MVFR cigs are possible in passing SHRA across TJBQ,TJSJ and
TIST. VFR conds are expected after 14Z...with limited shower
activity over the region. West winds of 10-15 kt will continue below
FL150.

&&

.MARINE...Small pulses of northerly swell are forecast to reach
the regional waters for the next few days. Swell is expected to
peak on Friday morning between 4-6 feet. There is a moderate risk
of rip currents along the northern beaches of the islands.
West to northwest winds between 10-15 knots will continue today as
weak frontal boundary moves across the local area.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 72 83 71 / 20 20 20 30
STT 82 74 82 72 / 50 20 20 30
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
124. Tropicsweatherpr
10:28 AM GMT on February 19, 2017
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
459 AM AST Sun Feb 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A weak frontal boundary over the local Atlantic Waters
will dissipate over the next few days. Moisture associated with the
front will pool across the local islands through Monday. Upper level
trough will move into the Western Atlantic tonight and swing across
the Northeast Caribbean on Monday...increasing the chances of showers
across the local area. Drier air mass will return to the region between
Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Satellite derived precipitable water analysis as
well as latest surface analysis show a frontal boundary extending
from the Central Atlantic to the Northeast Caribbean Region.
Although...mid level ridge will hold through tonight...moisture
associated with the weak front will reach the local islands...
inducing scattered showers across the forecast area during the
next 24-48 hours. For today...some showers will affect the north
coast of Puerto Rico through after sunrise...followed with
scattered showers over Western Puerto Rico this afternoon.

Conditions will become more unstable late tonight into Monday as
an upper level trough amplifies across the Northeast Caribbean
Region. The trough aloft will enhance the convective instability.
Therefore...shower coverage will likely increase on Monday.

After the front passes/dissipates, a generally fair weather pattern
will likely establish between Tuesday and Wednesday. Northeast winds
will bring low clouds along windward slopes and cooler temperature
across most of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals through
much of the forecast period. However, SHRA and BKN/OVC cigs btw
FL070-FL120 over the Atlantic waters could reach the northern
sections of PR and IST early in the forecast period. From 19/18z-
23z, SHRA is expected to develop across the northwest quadrant of
PR. This can result in tempo MVFR conditions at JBQ/JMZ. Low level
winds light from the ENE through at least 19/12z...ESE at 10-15 kts
with sea breeze variations after 19/13z.

&&

.MARINE...A moderate swell will continue to reach the Local
Atlantic waters through late tonight. Seas of 4-6 feet in north
swell have increased the risk of rip current along the north coast
of Puerto Rico. Seas will gradually subside Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 73 86 76 / 20 10 30 50
STT 81 74 80 73 / 10 20 20 50
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
123. Tropicsweatherpr
11:10 AM GMT on February 18, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
450 AM AST Sat Feb 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Fair weather pattern will prevail across the islands
most of the weekend. Then...moisture associated with a weak front
will spread over the islands late Sunday into Monday. Potent upper
level trough will swing across the Northeast Caribbean early next
week...increasing the chances of showers across the local area.
Drier and more stable air mass will return to the region by
midweek next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery depicts a weak front just north of
Puerto Rico this morning. A dry air mass have been prevailing
across the local islands resulting in mostly clear skies and no
shower activity. This tranquil conditions will likely persist the
rest of today. However...the sea breeze convergence will lead to
isolated to scattered showers over portions of Southwest Puerto
Rico this afternoon. Elsewhere...mostly sunny skies and limited
shower activity are forecast under the influence of the mid-upper
level ridge. Gentle easterly winds and near normal temperatures
will prevail through tonight.

The ridge aloft will hold the rest of the weekend...however
moisture associated with the weak front will spread over Puerto
Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands by Sunday afternoon. As a
result...moderate northeasterly flow will push some showers over
the islands from time to time. Afternoon showers will be possible
once again over Western PR on Sunday afternoon.

Conditions will become moist and unstable as moisture associated
with the remnants of the front persists over the local islands
and upper level trough enhances the instability. At this time...
wetter conditions are likely between Monday and Tuesday under the
influence of the upper level trough. Dry air will return to the
local islands by midweek... leading to fair weather conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals
through the forecast period. SHRA with max tops around FL250 should
remain over the offshore Atlantic waters due to a weak front. Brief
SHRA expected to develop across the southwest quadrant of PR between
18/18z-22z. This could result in VCSH at JMZ/JPS. Low level winds
ENE at 8-15 kts. Sea breeze variations after 18/13z.

&&

.MARINE...Relatively tranquil conditions are prevailing across the
regional waters. Winds of 5-10 kts and seas of 2-4 feet will continue
to prevail through tonight. Winds will increase slightly and seas
will build to 4-6 feet on Sunday as a northerly swell reaches the
local Atlantic Waters and Caribbean Passages. Tranquil conditions
will return to the region early in the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 73 84 74 / 0 10 10 10
STT 84 72 83 73 / 10 10 10 10
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
122. Tropicsweatherpr
11:07 AM GMT on February 17, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
448 AM AST Fri Feb 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Sub-equatorial ridge will continue to dominate the
local weather. Under the influence of this mid-upper level
ridge...fair weather conditions will prevail over the next few
days. Pattern will change between Sunday and Monday as an upper
level trough amplify across the Western Atlantic. Increasing
clouds and shower activity is anticipated early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Satellite derived precipitable water analysis shows
a dry air mass around 30%-40% below normal upstream of the U.S.
Virgin Islands. This drier and stable air mass will limit the
shower activity across the Northeast Caribbean Islands today.
High pressure over the Eastern Atlantic and frontal boundary over
the Bahamas is inducing gentle east-southeast flow across the
local region today. This will lead to another warm day along the
coastal sections of PR/USVI with maximum temperatures around 86-88
degrees...2-4 degrees above normal for this time of the year.

The ridge aloft will help to maintain the fair weather pattern
through Sunday Morning. A weak surface high pressure will move
over the Western Atlantic during the weekend...inducing a northeast
flow. With the northeast component...temperatures are forecast to
remain near or below normal through midweek next week. Moisture
will pool again over the islands on Sunday as surface high pressure
brings patches of moisture associated with the remnants of the
boundary over the islands. In addition...upper trough will swing
across the Northeast Caribbean...increasing the convective instability.
As a result...additional clouds and showers can be expected Sunday
through Tuesday. Dry air will return to the local islands by midweek...
leading to tranquil weather conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals
through the forecast period. Isolated to scattered showers possible
in the afternoon across the southwest quadrant of PR. This could
result in VCSH at JMZ/JPS. Low level wind ESE at 10 kts or less. Sea
breeze variations after 14z.

&&

.MARINE...Northerly swell continues to fade out across the local
waters today. Offshore and nearshore buoys have indicated seas of
3-4 feet across the region. Seas will increase to 3-5 feet on
Sunday as another small swell reaches the local Atlantic Waters.
No small craft advisories are anticipated over the next 5 days.
Gentle winds will prevail today, increasing somewhat as shift from
the northeast during the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 73 84 73 / 10 0 0 20
STT 83 71 83 73 / 20 0 10 20

&&
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
121. Tropicsweatherpr
11:07 AM GMT on February 16, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
430 AM AST Thu Feb 16 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Light southeasterly winds are expected to prevail
today and Friday. Relatively dry air will prevail through the
weekend. Mainly fair weather expected and any showers that may
affect the local islands should be limited to brief isolated to
scattered brief showers in the overnight hours over the windward
side of PR and over the USVI, then afternoon shower development
possible due to local effects and diurnal heating over PR. Marine
and surf zone conditions to remain hazardous today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The big story continues to be the local marine
conditions as the northerly swell will continue to cause
hazardous seas and surf zone conditions which includes high
breaking waves and a high risk of rip currents. When it comes to
the local weather, generally fair weather is expected with
possible showers developing across areas of sea breeze convergence
in the afternoon, which is expected today across the central and
western interior as well as some areas of north central PR. Some
of these showers could be moderate to briefly heavy but generally
speaking, the showers that do develop today are not expected to
cause anything more than some ponding of water on roadways and
poor drainage areas. The rest of the local area should remain dry
with only a slight chance of showers. Brief isolated showers are
still expected during the overnight hours for the next few days,
mainly affecting the local waters, USVI, and eastern PR.

A SFC high pressure across the northeastern Atlantic is slowly
moving to the NE while a SFC low pressure across the NE-US
continues to move NE. This will cause a SFC trough to move into the
NW of the local area and in turn cause a COL over the local area
by Friday, which will keep the local islands observing rather
light SE winds through the end of the workweek. A SFC high
pressure will move to the north of the local islands this weekend,
bringing back easterly wind flow. Broad high pressure in the
upper levels is still expected to dominate through the end of the
week. A broad upper trough is forecast to move over the area
early next week. The result of this may be increased shower
activity but at this time it looks like the increase in shower
activity will be for the leeward islands and not to have a
significant effect on the local islands. This is a few days out in
the forecast so the confidence is moderately low, although models
have been consistent.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds are expected to prevail through the forecast
period at all TAF sites with brief MVFR conds possible in and around
JBQ/JMZ due to SHRA aft 16/17z. East southeast winds around 10 knots
with some sea breeze variations aft 16/15z.

&&

.MARINE...The long period northerly swell will continue to
affect the local waters today. Seas between 6 and 10 feet are
expected across the Atlantic waters and Caribbean passages, which
are currently being confirmed by the local buoys. Elsewhere, small
craft operators are urged to exercise caution due to seas up to 6
feet. Dangerous breaking wave heights will create minor coastal
erosion and hazardous rip currents across some beaches of Puerto
Rico, Culebra and Northern U.S. Virgin Islands. Marine conditions
are expected to slowly improve after Tonight. There are high surf
and small craft advisories in effect, there is also a high risk of
rip currents.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 72 85 72 / 20 10 10 20
STT 83 72 84 72 / 20 20 20 20
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
120. Tropicsweatherpr
11:11 AM GMT on February 15, 2017
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
518 AM AST Wed Feb 15 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Light east to southeasterly winds are expected to
prevail over the next few days. Relatively dry air will prevail
over the next few days as well. Mainly fair weather expected and
any showers that may affect the local islands should be limited
to brief isolated to scattered brief showers in the overnight
hours over the windward side of PR and over the USVI, then
afternoon shower development possible due to local effects and
diurnal heating over PR. Marine and surf zone conditions to become
hazardous today and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A weak SFC high pressure will pass to the north of
the local islands before being absorbed by a larger high pressure
across the eastern Atlantic and then slowly will move to the NE
while a SFC low pressure across the NE-US continues to move NE,
causing a SFC trough to the NW of the local area and in turn
causing a COL over the local area which will then keep the local
islands observing rather light ESE to SE winds through the end of
the workweek. A SFC high pressure will move to the north of the
local islands, bringing back easterly wind flow for the weekend.
Broad high pressure in the upper levels is also expected to
dominate through the end of the week. A broad upper trough is
forecast to move over the area early next week.

The current pattern setup will cause mainly fair weather to
continue through the end of the week. The limited available
moisture that is expected for the next several days will cause
mainly isolated to scattered showers in the overnight and early
morning hours across the local waters, the USVI and the windward
side of PR. But those showers are not expected to cause much
rainfall accumulations. Having said that, the local effects in PR
in combination with the diurnal heating will help develop showers
in the afternoon, especially in the areas of sea breeze
convergence, some of these showers could be significant in terms
of accumulation as it would not be surprising to see some of the
showers produce up to an inch of rain or so across isolated areas,
which could cause some ponding of water in poor drainage areas,
but generally speaking the showers that do develop should produce
a quarter inch of rain or less. For today, given the expected wind
flow and the sea breeze convergence location, the area with the
most expected rainfall is the NW quadrant of PR, similar thing for
Thursday as the general wind flow is not expected to change too
much, showers may make it a bit more towards the interior of PR on
Thursday than today.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds are expected to prevail through the forecast
period at all TAF sites with brief MVFR conds possible in and around
JBQ due to SHRA aft 15/17z. Light winds will continue early this
morning but becoming east southeast at around 10 knots aft 15/15z.


&&

.MARINE...There is a high risk of rip currents today for the
northeast to the northwest coasts of PR as well as some beaches in
Culebra. SW PR will have moderate risk of rip currents early but
will have a high risk of rip currents in the afternoon. Saint
thomas will have a high risk of rip currents across the
northwestern beaches today, worsening surf zone conditions
tonight. Northerly swell will cause local seas to deteriorate
starting tonight with seas rising up to 8 feet. A small craft
advisory will go into effect tonight at 8 PM AST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 85 73 86 72 / 20 10 20 20
STT 83 73 82 71 / 20 10 20 20
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
119. Tropicsweatherpr
11:12 AM GMT on February 14, 2017
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
445 AM AST Tue Feb 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...As trofiness aloft moves away today, a weak mid to
upper level ridge will build across the forecast area and hold
through early next week. This will result in a seasonable weather
pattern during the next several days with warm temperatures likely
across the northern slopes of Puerto Rico Wed and Thu.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Mostly clear to partly cloudy skies with brief shower
activity was observed overnight and early this morning across the
local islands. The overnight minimum temperatures were generally in
the low to mid 70s across the lower elevations and in the mid to
upper 60s across the higher elevations. The wind was light from the
north northeast.

A generally fair weather pattern is expected to prevail across the
local islands during the next few days. However showers embedded in
the trades may reach the coastal areas at times to result in passing
showers. Although ridge aloft will prevail Wed through early next
week; locally induced afternoon showers cant be ruled out due to
sea breeze convergence each afternoon. Unseasonable temperatures
are likely across the northern slopes of Puerto Rico Wed-Thu as a
building surface high north of the area moves into the central
Atlantic by mid week. There is a surface front which is expected
to dissipate north or the area the upcoming weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected across the local terminals with SCT
-SHRA causing VCSH across TIST, TISX, TJSJ in the morning hours.
Light winds early in the morning but increasing to about 10KT and
turning N to NE for TJBQ, TJSJ, TIST after 14/14Z while sea breeze
variations will affect TJPS and TJMZ. TIST, TNCM and TKPK will have
East to ENE winds. SCT to locally NMRS SHRA in the afternoon may
affect the vicinity of TJPS and TJMZ after 14/16Z.

&&

.MARINE...Seas are expected to remain below 5 feet today. Another
northerly swell is forecast to reach the local Atlantic waters
and Passages by Wednesday afternoon. A moderate risk of rip
currents continues along the Atlantic shorelines today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 86 73 / 40 20 20 10
STT 84 73 84 73 / 40 20 20 10

&&
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
118. Tropicsweatherpr
10:51 AM GMT on February 12, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
501 AM AST Sun Feb 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will continue to move closer to the islands.
The moisture associated with this boundary is expected to pool
over the region late this afternoon into at least Tuesday. At the
same time, an upper-level trough will swing by through mid
midweek. As a result, cloudiness will increase, as well as the
chance of scattered to widespread showers late this afternoon into
the first half of the week. Surface winds are forecast to shift
from the east-southeast and a ridge pattern aloft could return
after mid week. This weather pattern will result in warmer than
normal temperatures across the islands.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The northeast wind flow brought a patch of moisture with clouds
and showers across the northern half portion of Puerto Rico and
the northern U.S. Virgin Islands overnight. This wind flow
supported pleasant climatological temperatures across the local
islands. Isolated showers embedded in the northeasterly winds are
expected to move through the islands this morning. High
resolution model are suggesting the development of afternoon
convection over the interior and southern portion of Puerto Rico.

A surface high pressure across the Western Atlantic will push the
frontal boundary into the region through Tuesday. This will
combined with a mid to upper level trough enhancing instability
across the region. The trough pattern was suggested by the 500 mb
temperatures and 200 mb heights (among other variables) which are
forecasting colder than normal temperatures and lower than normal
heights, respectively.

Model guidance suggested the return of an upper level ridge after
mid week. In addition, surface winds are forecast to shift from
the east-southeast around Thursday into the end of the week. As a
result, the combination of a stable air mass with a southerly
wind flow will result in limited shower activity with warmer than
normal temperatures. However, patches of low level moisture are
expected at times each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions are expected across the forecast area
through 12/12Z. Increasing cloudiness with SHRA are expected at
TJBQ and TJSJ from around 12/12z producing brief periods of MVFR
conditions. Brief periods of MVFR conditions can be expected
elsewhere after 12/18Z as frontal boundary moves through the area.
Low level winds will be mainly from the east northeast at 10 to
15 kts with higher gusts in showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A northerly swell is propagating across the Western Atlantic.
A high surf advisory was issued due to breaking waves between 10
and 14 feet along the north facing beaches of Puerto Rico. Marine
conditions are deteriorating across the local Atlantic waters and
Caribbean Passages as a swell produces seas between 7 and 10 feet
with occasional seas up to 11 feet.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 82 72 / 30 50 50 20
STT 83 72 82 72 / 30 50 50 20
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
117. Tropicsweatherpr
10:36 AM GMT on February 11, 2017

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
520 AM AST Sat Feb 11 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Ridge is weakening aloft as an upper level trough amplifies over
the region. A high pressure on the West Atlantic will move
eastward pushing a frontal boundary near and into the region late
Saturday night into the upcoming week. As a result, cloudiness
will increase, as well as the chance of widespread showers Sunday
into the first part of the upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The northeast wind flow brought pleasant climatological
temperatures across the local islands. However, clouds and
showers slowly increased across the surrounding waters and some of
them moved inland over the windward sections overnight and early
this morning. The northeast wind flow will continue to push clouds
and showers mainly to the north of the Cordillera Central,
Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands during the morning hours.
Then, afternoon convection is expected to develop over the
interior and southwest portion of Puerto Rico.

A migratory surface high pressure will continue to move eastward
across the Western Atlantic. This pressure system will push a
frontal boundary near and across the local Atlantic waters late
Saturday night into early next week. This feature will combine
with a mid-upper level trough to bring an increase in low level
moisture and local instability across the region.

Model guidance suggested the arrival of a dry air mass and the
return of an upper level ridge by the upcoming mid week. The
surface winds are forecast to become more from the southeast,
increasing the local temperatures through this period.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all TAF sites
through the forecast period. Some passing showers are expected
over TNCM AND TKPK. VCSH are possible over TIST, TISX and TJSJ.
Low level winds will be mainly east northeast at around 15 kts
with higher gusts.

&&

.Marine...Seas of 3 to 6 feet expected across the region today.
However, seas will increase by late tonight, as a northerly swell
is expected to move from the north-northwest across the region.
Therefore, a small craft advisory is in effect across the Atlantic
waters and Caribbean passages late tonight into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 84 74 82 74 / 20 40 70 40
STT 85 72 83 73 / 20 20 50 40
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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