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Heavy Rains mid next week across FL

By: StormTrackerScott , 12:56 PM GMT on February 17, 2017

GFS has this California system over FL next Wednesday & Thursday. This totals could be much higher if the GFS and some of these other models verify. Very unusual to get a cut off low this far south in February.







The system projected to be over FL next week is currently slamming into California.



Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
444 AM EST Fri Feb 17 2017


Mon-Thu... Primary attention continues to focus on a potential GOMex
system that mid range guidance has been hinting at for the past
several days. A very strong zonal jet spans the Pacific Ocean south
of the 40th parallel, with a 180KT core positioned about halfway
btwn the Aleutian and Hawaiian islands. The leading edge of the jet
is beginning to dig off the CA coast and is forecast to become
highly amplified over the next 24-36HRS.

Once it does, the stage will be set for an unsettled WX pattern for
central FL at midweek. The kink in the mid/upr lvl wind field will
work its way into the Central Plains on Mon before its srn extension
cuts off over the GOMex Tue Night into Wed. Interaction with a deep
lyr anticyclone over the Mid Atlc will generate a brisk E/SE breeze
by daybreak Wed, bcmg S/SW on Thu as the storm core works its way
acrs the FL Peninsula.

While the fcst will be subject revision considering the system is in
the 6-7day timeframe, it should be noted that this unusually
southward track can be favorable for strong or possibly severe
storms with hail and and strong wind gusts in east central Florida.


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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632. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
11:37 AM GMT on March 17, 2017
StormTrackerScott has created a new entry.
631. StormTrackerScott
11:34 AM GMT on March 17, 2017
Quoting 630. StPeteFLweather:



Got 1.25" here in St. Pete. Looks like a mess up in the northeast


Not much here at my place. Only .17" from that last system. As the rain moved up from Tampa it weakened to almost nothing.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
630. StPeteFLweather
1:24 PM GMT on March 14, 2017
Quoting 629. severstorm:

Good Morning To All,
I just got back from my trip to PA. Wish I would of pick this week to go so I could see the snowstorm.
Oh well all was good while I was there.
I had .80 in the bucket from last nights rains. Came down hard a few times. could here the grass cheering.
Have a great day!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
John Z-hills


Got 1.25" here in St. Pete. Looks like a mess up in the northeast
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
629. severstorm
10:16 AM GMT on March 14, 2017
Good Morning To All,
I just got back from my trip to PA. Wish I would of pick this week to go so I could see the snowstorm.
Oh well all was good while I was there.
I had .80 in the bucket from last nights rains. Came down hard a few times. could here the grass cheering.
Have a great day!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
John Z-hills
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
628. LargoFl
7:04 PM GMT on March 13, 2017
I just want to say its been fun here with you folks...this is my last post scott..most of us have moved to our new florida blog...lonk is down this page ok...hope you can join us there when doc deletes all the blogs ok..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
627. LargoFl
10:29 AM GMT on March 11, 2017
Florida folks we have moved our Florida weather Blog here........Link please join us there..at the bottom right you'll see page 1-2 etc go to 2 for the latest entry ok...strange I had to click this link a second time to get to our new blog..keep trying ok
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
626. StPeteFLweather
6:54 PM GMT on March 10, 2017
Quoting 625. TheBigBanana:

This blog hasn't died already has it? There's over 3 more weeks left.


Some of the bloggers have moved to the thunderbolt blog:
http://weatherchatroom.forumotion.com/t139-florid a-weather
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
625. TheBigBanana
6:27 PM GMT on March 10, 2017
This blog hasn't died already has it? There's over 3 more weeks left.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
624. LargoFl
2:20 PM GMT on March 08, 2017
Navy model shows whats coming for Monday..still too early..............................
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
623. LargoFl
2:16 PM GMT on March 08, 2017
CMC model is saying Monday's rains could be quite heavy coming in from the gulf................
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
622. LargoFl
2:12 PM GMT on March 08, 2017
7-day Tampa bay area im waiting to see if sun/mon's rain chances go up some more with that front coming....
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
621. LargoFl
10:56 AM GMT on March 08, 2017
GFS final has joined CMC and Navy models for possible rains on sunday/Monday .............
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
620. LargoFl
10:53 AM GMT on March 08, 2017
Good Wednesday Morning folks!!...nice outside here this morning,i just heard my local met say he doesn't thing today and tomorrow will be any big rain maker,just a few scattered showers a MAYBE for some area's..he's watching to see the front coming for sun/mon,that one may..give us some better showers..still too early yet to know for sure.......have a great day everyone!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
619. LargoFl
10:50 AM GMT on March 08, 2017
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
618. StAugustineFL
11:21 PM GMT on March 07, 2017
Very impressive storm system looking at the WV loop up top. One of the most impressive looking signatures I've seen in awhile. I captured a static loop since the one above auto-updates. StPete's radar image shows it nicely as well.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
617. StPeteFLweather
9:11 PM GMT on March 07, 2017
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
616. LargoFl
5:45 PM GMT on March 07, 2017
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
615. LargoFl
5:11 PM GMT on March 07, 2017
well search says Biggest Gator was seen over in Lakeland,marion county..........(clip).........Mr. Humpback is estimated to be around 14 or 15 feet in length, which could make him Florida's biggest on record, if anyone ever manages to get close enough for an accurate measurement, that is. The current record holder is a 14 foot 3-1/2 inch male from Lake Washington in Brevard County, according to the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
614. LargoFl
5:07 PM GMT on March 07, 2017
they say police and trappers pulled a 13 foot gator out of some swampy area lake...whew..thats a biggie huh.....well biggest ive seen an 8 footer pulled from the lake near me..cannot imagine one almost twice its size wow.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
613. LargoFl
4:53 PM GMT on March 07, 2017
yeah we cant trust any model more than 2-3 days out,lets see what they are saying early Friday morning for this coming weekend front.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
612. LargoFl
3:55 PM GMT on March 07, 2017
Navy model says showers early Sunday..well we have days yet to see what really happens huh......
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
611. LargoFl
3:52 PM GMT on March 07, 2017
so CMC model says the storminess from the front may come Monday
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
610. LargoFl
3:51 PM GMT on March 07, 2017
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
609. LargoFl
3:48 PM GMT on March 07, 2017
Quoting 608. StPeteFLweather:



Local met seemed to think it was going to die out as it came through. We'll see
it would be great if it does,i bet the racers don't want slick or wet roadways huh,especially at the speeds They will be going whew.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
608. StPeteFLweather
2:31 PM GMT on March 07, 2017
Quoting 606. LargoFl:

st pete..I hope the weather holds this weekend..NWS is saying a bit stronger front comes sat-sun, and today thyey are saying 20-40 percent chance for rain..hopefully that doesn't go up as we get closer to the weekend huh


Local met seemed to think it was going to die out as it came through. We'll see
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
607. LargoFl
2:25 PM GMT on March 07, 2017
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
606. LargoFl
2:24 PM GMT on March 07, 2017
Quoting 604. StPeteFLweather:

Getting ready for the Grand Prix this weekend in St. Pete, camera is looking at part of the track

st pete..I hope the weather holds this weekend..NWS is saying a bit stronger front comes sat-sun, and today thyey are saying 20-40 percent chance for rain..hopefully that doesn't go up as we get closer to the weekend huh
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
605. LargoFl
2:22 PM GMT on March 07, 2017
Quoting 603. billsfaninsofla:




Good morning Largo. Still breezy down by me, but I suppose it will gradually lighten up.
yes now here wind gusts are picking up some once again..around 25mph gusts some times
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
604. StPeteFLweather
2:14 PM GMT on March 07, 2017
Getting ready for the Grand Prix this weekend in St. Pete, camera is looking at part of the track
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
603. billsfaninsofla
1:44 PM GMT on March 07, 2017
Quoting 601. LargoFl:

Good Tuesday morning folks!! winds have died down here in my area so far...looks like a nice Warm day ahead..have a great day everyone!



Good morning Largo. Still breezy down by me, but I suppose it will gradually lighten up.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
602. LargoFl
11:00 AM GMT on March 07, 2017
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
601. LargoFl
9:46 AM GMT on March 07, 2017
Good Tuesday morning folks!! winds have died down here in my area so far...looks like a nice Warm day ahead..have a great day everyone!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
600. LargoFl
9:44 AM GMT on March 07, 2017
(clipped from NWs Tampa discussion).for this weekend.............During Saturday night a stronger short wave trough and attendant
cold front will approach from the west bringing with it chances for
showers (Pops in the 20 to 40 percent range) during Sunday and
Sunday night as the attendant front moves into the forecast area,
with the front then stalling out across the southern peninsula
Sunday night which will keep rain chances in the forecast through
Monday as lingering moisture along it combined with the sea breeze
circulations supports additional showers.

Temperatures will run some 5 to 7 degrees above normal through the
period with overnight lows in the upper 50s to around 60 across the
Nature Coast, and lower to mid 60s central and south, with daytime
highs climbing into the upper 70s to around 80 along the coast, and
lower to mid 80s inland.

&&
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
599. LargoFl
9:30 AM GMT on March 07, 2017
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Miami FL
225 AM EST Tue Mar 7 2017

FLZ069-070-071400-
/O.CON.KMFL.SM.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-170307T1400Z/
Coastal Collier-Inland Collier-
Including the cities of Naples and Immokalee
225 AM EST Tue Mar 7 2017

...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* VISIBILITY...one quarter mile or less.

* IMPACTS...reduced visibilities due to smoke from wildfires
could cause roads to be closed to motorists.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Dense Smoke Advisory means wildfires will create smoke,
limiting visibilities. If driving, slow down, use your
headlights, and leave plenty of distance ahead of you in case a
sudden stop is needed.

&&

$$
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
598. QueensWreath
12:28 AM GMT on March 07, 2017
Quoting 570. StPeteFLweather:

Giant avocado attacks the central US:




LOL
Trying to think of the variety.
Bwahahahaha!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
597. QueensWreath
12:19 AM GMT on March 07, 2017
Largo
I would swear that I used all lower case but when I was having the same problem as you I noticed that the Q in Queenswreath was Uppercase in the email they sent me. You know,,,, The one they did not mention. LOL
So I tried again with the first letter in upper case and it worked.
I hope this is your problem.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
596. billsfaninsofla
10:59 PM GMT on March 06, 2017
Thanks for helpful hints StAug. You an old pro over there! :)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
595. StPeteFLweather
7:47 PM GMT on March 06, 2017
Quoting 583. LargoFl:

a lot of events going on around tampa bay area..boy that st pete race is awesome every year.............................................. ..

yep, race cars are arriving they'll start their warm ups soon
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
594. LargoFl
7:16 PM GMT on March 06, 2017
here is the 7-day for the tampa bay area, those rain chances May go up a little for wens-thurs..we'll see.......
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
593. LargoFl
7:13 PM GMT on March 06, 2017
Quoting 592. StAugustineFL:



You can use the same one. I'm sure there's a limit but I don't know what it is since the site only has a few members and we never reached the limit, lol.
ok, well I'm sure once the blogs here get wiped out ..more will join in with us there
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
592. StAugustineFL
7:10 PM GMT on March 06, 2017
Quoting 589. LargoFl:

Aug I have a question please....do we have to make a NEW Florida Blog each day or can we keep the same one running day after day?....I don't know how they run things over there..is there a post count limit?..lots to learn there for sure.


You can use the same one. I'm sure there's a limit but I don't know what it is since the site only has a few members and we never reached the limit, lol.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
591. LargoFl
7:09 PM GMT on March 06, 2017
oh and I found the blank box at the bottom..kinda hard to see at first but now I know where it is..thanks for letting us know.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
590. LargoFl
7:07 PM GMT on March 06, 2017
Quoting 588. StAugustineFL:



Not sure what is causing that. If you can find your way back in maybe check the "log in automatically" box. If I ever get logged out I only have to click "log in" and I'm all set.


yes I checked that auto box and still the next time I go in..have to log in again lol..but..its ok,i'll keep going in each day and see how it goes.,i just changed my password and I got right in so maybe everything is ok now.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
589. LargoFl
7:05 PM GMT on March 06, 2017
Aug I have a question please....do we have to make a NEW Florida Blog each day or can we keep the same one running day after day?....I don't know how they run things over there..is there a post count limit?..lots to learn there for sure.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
588. StAugustineFL
7:03 PM GMT on March 06, 2017
Quoting 586. LargoFl:

well when I go in there..it refuses to recognize me,makes me try to log in and when I do it gives several excuses why I cant,i try to log in 3-4 times..no good..so I give up


Not sure what is causing that. If you can find your way back in maybe check the "log in automatically" box. If I ever get logged out I only have to click "log in" and I'm all set.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
587. LargoFl
7:03 PM GMT on March 06, 2017
Quoting 585. StAugustineFL:

Good afternoon. Breezy here as well.

Just a couple notes about the other place while I check in over lunch. I've been there over 4 years. I've never had log in issues. Maybe a password was fat-fingered?

There is a blank comments box. No need to quote. It's at the bottom versus here where it's at the top. Easiest way for me to navigate is go to the home page and check the latest topics scrolling in the top left. You can see what has most recently been commented on. Click a link of choice and the blog page opens.

Here is a screen shot of the comments box.


Quoting 586. LargoFl:

well when I go in there..it refuses to recognize me,makes me try to log in and when I do it gives several excuses why I cant,i try to log in 3-4 times..no good..so I give up
ok thanks AUG..i changed my password and now I just got in there...our Florida blog is beginning to go nicely now,once everyone here..joins in....we'll have a great friendly blog there too..now I hope Scott joins in also there.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
586. LargoFl
6:56 PM GMT on March 06, 2017
Quoting 585. StAugustineFL:

Good afternoon. Breezy here as well.

Just a couple notes about the other place while I check in over lunch. I've been there over 4 years. I've never had log in issues. Maybe a password was fat-fingered?

There is a blank comments box. No need to quote. It's at the bottom versus here where it's at the top. Easiest way for me to navigate is go to the home page and check the latest topics scrolling in the top left. You can see what has most recently been commented on. Click a link of choice and the blog page opens.

Here is a screen shot of the comments box.


well when I go in there..it refuses to recognize me,makes me try to log in and when I do it gives several excuses why I cant,i try to log in 3-4 times..no good..so I give up
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
585. StAugustineFL
6:50 PM GMT on March 06, 2017
Good afternoon. Breezy here as well.

Just a couple notes about the other place while I check in over lunch. I've been there over 4 years. I've never had log in issues. Maybe a password was fat-fingered?

There is a blank comments box. No need to quote. It's at the bottom versus here where it's at the top. Easiest way for me to navigate is go to the home page and check the latest topics scrolling in the top left. You can see what has most recently been commented on. Click a link of choice and the blog page opens.

Here is a screen shot of the comments box.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
584. billsfaninsofla
6:35 PM GMT on March 06, 2017
Quoting 579. LargoFl:

what that site there needs..is a blank box like we have here instead of just quotes so people can have different threads,well maybe I'm not getting it...maybe it does huh


I agree on that!
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
583. LargoFl
6:11 PM GMT on March 06, 2017
a lot of events going on around tampa bay area..boy that st pete race is awesome every year.............................................. ..

Valspar Championship



Grand Prix of St. Petersburg



Spring training game



Gasparilla Music Festival
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
582. LargoFl
6:01 PM GMT on March 06, 2017
FXUS62 KTBW 061501
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1001 AM EST Mon Mar 6 2017

.UPDATE...
High pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast continues to control the
weather over the area. Mostly sunny skies will prevail and winds
will remain out of the east through the day. Temperatures will warm
up quickly to the mid 70`s for the entire region. No changes needed
for the forecast at this time.

&&
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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