WunderBlog Archive » Dr. Ricky Rood's Climate Change Blog
Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.Tracking El Niño: Amongst Other Things
Tracking El Niño: Amongst Other Things
After what seemed a period of climate languidness, there are a number of things I want to write about. There is the compelling news release on West Antarctica and the unbridled melting of glaciers. That’s one I want to think about a while. Almost overwhelmed by West Antarctica is a study on hurricanes creeping northward. And I have a number of entries I’d like to write about the National Climate Assessment. However, I will start tracking El Niño.
El Niño and La Niña are names given to frequently occurring patterns of variation that are concentrated in the tropical Pacific Ocean, but that change the average temperature of Earth for about a year. When there is an El Niño the globe is warmer and when there is a La Niña the globe is cooler.
As Daniel Swain wrote at weatherwest.com, “one of the few things growing more rapidly than the Eastern Pacific sea surface temperature in recent weeks has been the media speculation regarding the future evolution of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean …” Swain goes on with a nice description of El Niño and its global impacts. Joe Romm talks about a Super El Niño. John Upton at Pacific Standard Magazine writes about a Monster El Niño, a “dinosaurian belch of warm water,” and the potential effects on crops. The Motley Fool discusses El Niño and investment strategies.
Back on February 21, 2014, Michael Ventrice wrote in Jeff Master’s blog, “We are seeing increasing evidence of an upcoming change in the Pacific Ocean base state that favors the development of a moderate-to-strong El Niño event this Spring/Summer.” In March NOAA issued an El Niño watch. Then in May 2014 ocean temperatures reached the threshold that if sustained we would have an El Niño. Currently the NOAA prediction is that with 65% probability there will be an El Niño with its official onset at the end of the summer. At the end of this blog, I provide a list of references.
Enough reporting, now I will wander into whatever it is that distinguishes this blog from the others. For that I will reach back to 2010 and the first two blogs in my series called Bumps and Wiggles (number one and number two). In that blog I used the following figure from Judith Lean’s and David Rind’s 2009 paper “How will Earth's surface temperature change in future decades?”
Figure 1 from Lean and Rind (2009), Geophysical Research Letters.
In the Lean and Rind (2009) paper they write about both carbon-dioxide-related warming and internal variability. They investigated the impact of typical events on global averaged temperature, such as volcanic eruptions and El Niño. They considered a “super” El Niño, which was defined as an El Niño similar to the events of 1992-1997. The effect of a “super” El Niño is major warming of the planet. The last strong (dare I say super?) El Niño was 1997-1998, the result of which was a very warm year. 1998 server as fodder for endless ruminations on things like the whole silly warming haitus. Here is a simple graphic of weak and strong El Niños from Golden Gate Weather Services.
One reason there is so much discussion about the possibility of a colossal El Niño is the whole silly warming hiatus. The warming hiatus is the name given to the observation that the global surface temperature has not risen as fast as might be expected. The scientific investigation of the hiatus reveals that there are many things that might be viewed as extreme. Since the 1997-1998 El Niño, the eastern Pacific has remained cool, with strong tropical winds blowing from east to west piling up water in the western Pacific. As discussed in England et al. (2014), and in the blog I referenced above, these extraordinary winds have kept the eastern Pacific and, hence, the planet cool(ish). The amount of water piled up in the western Pacific is enormous and it is natural to imagine an event that might adjust to levels closer to long-term averages. Such a large shift in mass of the Pacific Ocean would be a large El Niño.
If there were such a large El Niño, then there would a large spike in the planet’s temperature. If this proved the end of the warming hiatus, then it would be dramatic in the realm of climate-change news. There are also other possible consequences, such as disruption of the patterns of oceanic and atmospheric heat transport that currently lead to the build up of Antarctic sea ice (see Earth Observatory and Michael Lemonick @ Wunderground News and National Snow and Ice Data Center).
In my 2012 blog Just Temperature, I used this graphic.
Figure 2: Global temperature differences with El Niño (warm) and La Niña (cool) years marked. From National Climatic Data Center.
As pointed out innumerable times by myself and others, the past decade has been historically warm; there is not a convincing warming hiatus. Even the moderate El Niño of 2010, which did not break the larger scale cool pattern of the eastern Pacific, flirted with being a year of record warmth.
At the time of this blog the official Climate Prediction Center Advisory is “Chance of El Niño increases during the remainder of the year, exceeding 65% during summer.” Further, “There remains uncertainty as to exactly when El Niño will develop and an even greater uncertainty as to how strong it may become. This uncertainty is related to the inherently lower forecast skill of the models for forecasts made in the spring.” From Japanese Meteorological Agency, “It is likely that El Niño conditions will develop during the northern hemisphere summer and will continue to autumn.” From the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, “Climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest El Niño development is possible as early as July. These factors indicate that while El Niño in 2014 cannot be guaranteed, the likelihood of an event developing remains at least 70% and we are at El Niño ALERT level.” And from the International Research Institute, “During April through mid-May the observed ENSO conditions moved from warm-neutral to the borderline of a weak El Niño condition. Most of the ENSO prediction models indicate a continued warming trend, with a transition to sustained El Niño conditions by the early northern summer.” Note, none of these centers are predicting, yet, strong, super or monster. I’m not as smart as those others, so right now I am steering away from “monster,” and looking forward to what we learn about prediction, the climate as a whole and, of course, how we communicate our science.
r
Here is a list of resources. I will be informally seeing how usable these are over the next few months. If you have some more that you like, please email me. Plus if you want to see which seem best to you, keep score.
Forecast and Analysis Centers
Climate Prediction Center Alert System and the Climate Prediction Center Diagnostic Discussion
International Research Institute Forecast Products and the Quick Look
Japanese Meteorological Agency El Niño Monitoring and Outlook and a nice graph of historical events
Australian Bureau of Meteorology Wrapup
Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) Forecasts
Information Portals
CLIVAR (Variability and predictability of the ocean-atmosphere system) Forecast Page
World Meteorological Updates
Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory El Niño Theme Page Forecasts
Climate Prediction Center FAQ
NOAA’s El Niño Page and NOAA’s La Niña Page
Summaries in Blogs
Judy Curry El Niño Watch
NOAA’s ENSO Blog
Figure 3: Ortelius World Map with a Monster in the Eastern Pacific. Go here to get a really big version Wikipedia
After what seemed a period of climate languidness, there are a number of things I want to write about. There is the compelling news release on West Antarctica and the unbridled melting of glaciers. That’s one I want to think about a while. Almost overwhelmed by West Antarctica is a study on hurricanes creeping northward. And I have a number of entries I’d like to write about the National Climate Assessment. However, I will start tracking El Niño.
El Niño and La Niña are names given to frequently occurring patterns of variation that are concentrated in the tropical Pacific Ocean, but that change the average temperature of Earth for about a year. When there is an El Niño the globe is warmer and when there is a La Niña the globe is cooler.
As Daniel Swain wrote at weatherwest.com, “one of the few things growing more rapidly than the Eastern Pacific sea surface temperature in recent weeks has been the media speculation regarding the future evolution of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean …” Swain goes on with a nice description of El Niño and its global impacts. Joe Romm talks about a Super El Niño. John Upton at Pacific Standard Magazine writes about a Monster El Niño, a “dinosaurian belch of warm water,” and the potential effects on crops. The Motley Fool discusses El Niño and investment strategies.
Back on February 21, 2014, Michael Ventrice wrote in Jeff Master’s blog, “We are seeing increasing evidence of an upcoming change in the Pacific Ocean base state that favors the development of a moderate-to-strong El Niño event this Spring/Summer.” In March NOAA issued an El Niño watch. Then in May 2014 ocean temperatures reached the threshold that if sustained we would have an El Niño. Currently the NOAA prediction is that with 65% probability there will be an El Niño with its official onset at the end of the summer. At the end of this blog, I provide a list of references.
Enough reporting, now I will wander into whatever it is that distinguishes this blog from the others. For that I will reach back to 2010 and the first two blogs in my series called Bumps and Wiggles (number one and number two). In that blog I used the following figure from Judith Lean’s and David Rind’s 2009 paper “How will Earth's surface temperature change in future decades?”
Figure 1 from Lean and Rind (2009), Geophysical Research Letters.
In the Lean and Rind (2009) paper they write about both carbon-dioxide-related warming and internal variability. They investigated the impact of typical events on global averaged temperature, such as volcanic eruptions and El Niño. They considered a “super” El Niño, which was defined as an El Niño similar to the events of 1992-1997. The effect of a “super” El Niño is major warming of the planet. The last strong (dare I say super?) El Niño was 1997-1998, the result of which was a very warm year. 1998 server as fodder for endless ruminations on things like the whole silly warming haitus. Here is a simple graphic of weak and strong El Niños from Golden Gate Weather Services.
One reason there is so much discussion about the possibility of a colossal El Niño is the whole silly warming hiatus. The warming hiatus is the name given to the observation that the global surface temperature has not risen as fast as might be expected. The scientific investigation of the hiatus reveals that there are many things that might be viewed as extreme. Since the 1997-1998 El Niño, the eastern Pacific has remained cool, with strong tropical winds blowing from east to west piling up water in the western Pacific. As discussed in England et al. (2014), and in the blog I referenced above, these extraordinary winds have kept the eastern Pacific and, hence, the planet cool(ish). The amount of water piled up in the western Pacific is enormous and it is natural to imagine an event that might adjust to levels closer to long-term averages. Such a large shift in mass of the Pacific Ocean would be a large El Niño.
If there were such a large El Niño, then there would a large spike in the planet’s temperature. If this proved the end of the warming hiatus, then it would be dramatic in the realm of climate-change news. There are also other possible consequences, such as disruption of the patterns of oceanic and atmospheric heat transport that currently lead to the build up of Antarctic sea ice (see Earth Observatory and Michael Lemonick @ Wunderground News and National Snow and Ice Data Center).
In my 2012 blog Just Temperature, I used this graphic.
Figure 2: Global temperature differences with El Niño (warm) and La Niña (cool) years marked. From National Climatic Data Center.
As pointed out innumerable times by myself and others, the past decade has been historically warm; there is not a convincing warming hiatus. Even the moderate El Niño of 2010, which did not break the larger scale cool pattern of the eastern Pacific, flirted with being a year of record warmth.
At the time of this blog the official Climate Prediction Center Advisory is “Chance of El Niño increases during the remainder of the year, exceeding 65% during summer.” Further, “There remains uncertainty as to exactly when El Niño will develop and an even greater uncertainty as to how strong it may become. This uncertainty is related to the inherently lower forecast skill of the models for forecasts made in the spring.” From Japanese Meteorological Agency, “It is likely that El Niño conditions will develop during the northern hemisphere summer and will continue to autumn.” From the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, “Climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest El Niño development is possible as early as July. These factors indicate that while El Niño in 2014 cannot be guaranteed, the likelihood of an event developing remains at least 70% and we are at El Niño ALERT level.” And from the International Research Institute, “During April through mid-May the observed ENSO conditions moved from warm-neutral to the borderline of a weak El Niño condition. Most of the ENSO prediction models indicate a continued warming trend, with a transition to sustained El Niño conditions by the early northern summer.” Note, none of these centers are predicting, yet, strong, super or monster. I’m not as smart as those others, so right now I am steering away from “monster,” and looking forward to what we learn about prediction, the climate as a whole and, of course, how we communicate our science.
r
Here is a list of resources. I will be informally seeing how usable these are over the next few months. If you have some more that you like, please email me. Plus if you want to see which seem best to you, keep score.
Forecast and Analysis Centers
Climate Prediction Center Alert System and the Climate Prediction Center Diagnostic Discussion
International Research Institute Forecast Products and the Quick Look
Japanese Meteorological Agency El Niño Monitoring and Outlook and a nice graph of historical events
Australian Bureau of Meteorology Wrapup
Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) Forecasts
Information Portals
CLIVAR (Variability and predictability of the ocean-atmosphere system) Forecast Page
World Meteorological Updates
Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory El Niño Theme Page Forecasts
Climate Prediction Center FAQ
NOAA’s El Niño Page and NOAA’s La Niña Page
Summaries in Blogs
Judy Curry El Niño Watch
NOAA’s ENSO Blog
Figure 3: Ortelius World Map with a Monster in the Eastern Pacific. Go here to get a really big version Wikipedia
Climate Change News Climate Change
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.