Winston's Damage Highest in South Pacific History; Extreme February Warmth in Eurasia

The nation of Fiji is struggling to recover from the staggering blow Tropical Cyclone Winston delivered on February 20 when the mighty storm made landfall at Category 5 strength on multiple islands. The storm killed at least 42 people, making it the deadliest in Fiji history. Fiji's previous deadliest storm was Category 3 Cyclone Eric of 1985, which made a direct hit on the capital of Suva, killing 25. Cyclones rarely take many lives across the South Pacific, but the modest population of South Pacific islands means that even a relatively small death toll can have a major impact. Fortunately, Winston's human toll was not as large as it could have been. Several South Pacific cyclones since 1980 are known to have taken more lives than the confirmed total from Winston. The deadliest appears to be Cyclone Namu, which killed at least 150 people during its prolonged trek across the Solomon Islands in May 1986. Thanks to WU member skycycle for bringing other South Pacific cyclone tolls to our attention.


Figure 1. VIIRS infrared image of Tropical Cyclone Winston at 0057 UTC February 20, 2016. At the time, Winston was the strongest storm ever recorded in the Southern Hemisphere, with sustained winds of 185 mph. Koro Island (see damage photo below) is in the eye. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.


Figure 2. An example of how Category 5 winds can completely flatten human-built structures: Koro Island received a direct hit from Winston when the storm was at peak strength with 185 mph winds. Image credit: My Fijian Images and Jah Ray.

Winston the most destructive cyclone in South Pacific history
While many cyclones in the South Pacific have caused severe devastation, the roughly half-billion-dollar cost of Winston appears to be a record-setter for this region. Thousands of homes and businesses were destroyed by Winston, with northern and western regions of Fiji receiving catastrophic damage. The government of Fiji estimated on Thursday that the cost of the disaster would be at least $468 million, making it the costliest tropical cyclone in South Pacific history. The previous most costly cyclone in the South Pacific was just last year, when Category 5 Tropical Cyclone Pam tore through Vanuatu, causing $360 million in damage. According to insurance broker Aon Benfield, the previous costliest cyclone in Fiji was Tropical Cyclone Kina in January 1993, at $182 million (2016 USD) in damage. The next-highest damage total was from Cyclone Heta (2003), which inflicted about $150 million in damage (in 2004 US dollars) to American Samoa as well as Niue and Tonga. Fiji's Tropical Cyclone Evan of December 2012 was similar in cost, with damages estimated at $150 million (2016 USD).

Winston's damage is roughly 10% of Fiji's GDP--the type of economic blow that will take many years to recover from. To put this into a U.S. perspective, if the U.S. had a 10% hit to its GDP, that would be a roughly $1.7 trillion disaster, on par with 15 simultaneous Hurricane Katrinas. Unfortunately, insurance penetration in Fiji is only about 2%, making it difficult for people who lost everything to get back on their feet. At least 55,000 people--about 6% of Fiji's population--are in evacuation shelters. Most of the nation's resorts and tourist facilities have reopened, though, and tourism represents about 17% of Fiji's GDP. Another good sign of normalcy returning: schools opened today for the first time since the disaster.


Figure 3. Australian and New Zealand Defense Forces unload relief supplies on February 24, 2016 in Fiji to assist in Tropical Cyclone Winston relief. Image credit: Government of Fiji. Charities asking for donations for Fji cyclone relief include UNICEF, the Australian Red Cross, and Save the Children.


Video 1. The eyewall and eye of Tropical Cyclone Winston, as experienced by a volunteer for Think Pacific working to deliver a youth and sports program for rural school children in the village of Tuatua on Koro, Fiji.

Unprecedented February warmth in Eurasia
December 2015 and January 2016 were Earth's warmest months in recorded history (expressed as the departure of temperature from average), and record-smashing heat in February is making this month a threat to join the parade. Two northward extensions of subtropical heat--one in eastern Europe and one in central Asia--led to phenomenally mild temperatures for February in the last two weeks. At least a dozen countries set or tied their all-time records for February during the latter half of the month, according to international weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera:



Serbia, 26.6°C (79.9°F) at Knjazevac on Feb. 15
Montenegro, 27.8°C (82.0°F) at Ulcinj on Feb. 16
Romania, 26.0°C (78.8°F) at Patarlagele on Feb. 16 (tied record)
Turkey, 32.4°C (90.3°F) at Milas on Feb. 16
Albania, 28.6°C (83.5°F) at Qyteli Stalin on Feb. 16
Austria, 23.2°C (73.8°F) at Pottschach on Feb. 22 (tied record)
Slovakia, 20.3°C (68.5°F) at Bratislava Airport on Feb. 22
Uzbekistan, 30.1°C (86.2°F) at Termez on Feb. 25
Tajikistan, 29.7°C (85.5°F) at Isambaj on Feb. 25
Kyrgyzstan, 25.8°C (78.4°F) at Dzhalalabad on Feb. 25
Kazakhstan, 26.9°C (80.4°F) at Ciili on Feb. 25
Russia, 24.5°C (76.1°F) at Goriatchi Klioutch on Feb. 27
 
Not to be totally outdone, the midsection of North America had an impressively mild weekend, with temperatures between 55°F and 60°F setting daily records across southern Canada from Edmonton to Toronto. Top pick among the U.S. records: Bismarck, ND, where the 73°F high notched on Saturday was the state’s warmest for the entire month of February in 126 years of record-keeping, a full 41°F above Bismarck’s average high for the date of 32°F. Thanks to WU weather historian Chris Burt for catching this noteworthy statistic. Monthly record highs were also set in Mobridge, SD (73°F) and St. Cloud, MN (58°F), as noted by weather.com.
 
Happy Leap Day, everyone!


Jeff Masters and Bob Henson