Warmest July--and Warmest Month--On Record for the Globe

July 2016 was Earth's warmest July since record keeping began in 1880, said NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) on Wednesday. In the NOAA database, July 2016 came in 0.87°C (1.15°F) warmer than the 20th-century average for July, beating the previous record for July, set in 2015, by 0.06°C. NASA also reported the warmest July in its database.

Even more impressive, July 2016 was also Earth’s warmest month in recorded history in absolute terms. This is because July is the planet’s hottest month of the year overall. Land areas heat and cool more readily than the ocean surface, and most of Earth’s land area is in the Northern Hemisphere, where summer arrives in the middle of the year. The global average surface temperature is normally about 3-4°C (5-7°F) warmer in July than in January. In relative terms, February 2016 was Earth’s warmest month on record, according to NASA, since it came in at 1.32°C (2.38°F) warmer than the 20th-century average for that month. NOAA rated March 2016 as the month with the warmest anomaly on record, at 1.22°C (2.20°F). Both of these effects--relative and absolute--can be seen in Figure 1 below.


Figure 1. The departure from average (compared to temperatures from 1980 - 2015) of Earth’s surface temperature from 1880 to 2016, with the seasonal cycle left in. July 2016 was Earth’s hottest month on record in absolute terms, while February 2016 had the largest departure from average (in relative terms) from average of any month in the historical record. Image credit: Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies.


Figure 2. Departure of temperature from average for July 2016, the warmest July for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Pockets of record warmth were observed across every major ocean basin and over a few land areas. Image credit: National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).

A year-plus streak of global records
uly 2016 marked the 15th consecutive month that NOAA’s global monthly temperature record was broken, which is the longest such streak since global temperature records began in 1880. The record-warm July extended to both global ocean and global land temperatures in the NOAA database. For the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere, global satellite-measured temperatures in July 2016 were the 2nd warmest for any July in the 38-year record, according to the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH).

With the powerful 2015-16 El Niño event now over, the impressive global warmth in recent months can mostly be attributed to the steady build-up of heat-trapping greenhouse gases due to human activities. NOAA’s global surface temperature for the year so far (January-July 2016) is 1.03°C (1.85°F) above the 20th-century average and a remarkable 0.19°C (0.34°F) warmer than the previous January-to-July record, set in 2015 (see Figure 3 below). Following the 1997-98 “super” El Niño, monthly global temperature records were set through August 1998. The departure of the equally strong 2015-16 El Niño and the possible arrival of La Niña late this year should allow temperatures to drop slightly, perhaps breaking our string of record-warm months sometime in the near future. However, temperatures would have to plummet between now and December in order to keep 2016 from becoming the warmest year in global record keeping. According to Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA’s Goddard Institute of Space Studies, there is a 99 percent chance that 2016 will end up as Earth’s third consecutive hottest year on record.


Figure 3. Departure from average for the global January-through-July temperature for the years 1880 - 2016. This year has seen by far the warmest temperatures on record for the year-to-date period. Image credit: NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).

Weak La Niña favored for this fall
El Niño dissipated in May 2016, giving way to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions as sea surface temperatures declined across the tropical Pacific Ocean. According to NOAA's August ENSO forecast from the Climate Prediction Center, a weak La Niña is favored to develop during the August - October peak of hurricane season and last through the Northern Hemisphere winter. The La Niña odds in the August outlook were 55 - 60%, which were lower than the 75% odds given in their June forecast.

Arctic sea ice hits its third lowest July extent on record
The rate of July sea ice loss was below average last month, due to cool and stormy conditions in the Arctic. As a result, sea ice extent in July 2016 was just the third lowest in the 38-year satellite record, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). So far, March and July have been the only months in 2016 that has not set a new record low for Arctic-wide sea ice extent (March 2016 was second lowest, just above 2015). A new record low September ice extent "now appears to be unlikely", NSIDC said in their August update. However, the “Great Arctic Cyclone of 2016” is currently spinning over the Arctic, as Bob Henson detailed in a Tuesday afternoon post. This massive storm could break up the ice, leading to lower ice extent in September than would otherwise have been observed.

Three billion-dollar weather disasters for July 2016: Typhoon Nepartak, China floods, Netherlands severe weather
According to the July 2016 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield, two billion-dollar weather-related disaster hit the planet in July: $1.5 billion in damage from Typhoon Nepartak's impact on the Philippines, Taiwan, and China; and flooding in northeast China on July 16 - 24 that cost $5 billion. An additional $6 billion in flood damage occurred along the Yangtze River basin, bringing the total flood damage in that region from monsoon rains that began in May to a staggering $28 billion dollars--the third most expensive non-U.S. weather related disaster in recorded history. Additionally, a severe weather outbreak in the Netherlands during June accumulated enough damage claims to be rated a billion-dollar disaster by the end of July. Between January - July 2016, there were 21 billion-dollar weather disasters--one fewer than occurred during January - July 2013, the year that ended up with the most billion-dollar weather disasters on record: 41. Here is the tally of billion-dollar weather disasters for January - July 2016:

1) Flooding, Yangtze Basin, China, 5/1 - 8/1, $28.0 billion, 475 killed
2) Flooding, Germany, France, Austria, Poland, 5/26 - 6/6, $5.5 billion, 17 killed
3) Drought, India, 1/1 - 6/30, $5.0 billion, 0 killed
4) Flooding, Northeast China 7/16 - 7/24, $5.0 billion, 289 killed
5) Wildfire, Fort McMurray, Canada, 5/2- 6/1, $5.0 billion, 0 killed
6) Severe Weather, Plains-Southeast U.S., 4/10 - 4/13, $3.75 billion, 1 killed
7) Flooding, China, 6/18 - 6/23, $2.3 billion, 68 killed
8) Severe Weather, Rockies-Plains-Southeast-Midwest U.S., 3/22 - 3/25, $2.2 billion, 0 killed
9) Winter Weather, East Asia, 1/20 - 1/26, $2.0 billion, 116 killed
10) Tropical Cyclone Roanu, Sri Lanka, India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, China, 5/14 - 5/21, $1.7 billion, 135 killed
11) Severe Weather, Plains-Midwest U.S., 4/29 - 5/3, $1.6 billion, 6 killed
12) Drought, Zimbabwe, 1/1 - 3/1, $1.6 billion, 0 killed
3) Typhoon Nepartak, Philippines, Taiwan, China, 7/8 - 7/9, $1.5 billion, 111 killed
13) Severe Weather, Plains-Southeast U.S., 3/17 - 3/18, $1.3 billion, 0 killed
14) Flooding, Argentina and Uruguay, 4/4 - 4/10, $1.3 billion, 0 killed
15) Severe Weather, Plains-Midwest-Southeast-Northeast U.S., 3/4 - 3/12, $1.25 billion, 6 killed
16) Severe Weather, Plains-Midwest-Southeast-Northeast U.S., 2/22 - 2/25, $1.2 billion, 10 killed
17) Severe Weather, Plains-Midwest U.S., 5/21 - 5/28, $1.1 billion, 1 killed
18) Severe Weather, Netherlands, 6/23 - 6/24, $1.1 billion, 0 killed
19) Flooding, Plains-Rockies U.S., 4/15 - 4/19, $1.0 billion, 9 killed
20) Tropical Cyclone Winston, Fiji, 2/16 - 2/22, $1.0 billion, 44 killed
21) Winter Weather, Eastern U.S., 1/21 - 1/24, $1.0 billion, 58 killed


Figure 3. This summer's Yangtze River basin floods in China are the third most expensive weather-related natural disaster on record outside of the U.S., according to the International Disaster database, EM-DAT.

And here are the three disasters from July 2016 in more detail:


Disaster 1. Severe thunderstorms swept through the Netherlands, causing hail, wind and isolated flash flood damage in South Holland and Utrecht provinces on June 23 - 24. In this image, we an arcus cloud from a severe thunderstorm over the A2 between Utrecht and Amsterdam on 23 June 2016. Image credit: ROBIN VAN LONKHUIJSEN/AFP/Getty Images.


Disaster 2. Super Typhoon Nepartak hit Taiwan on July 7 as a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds, killing 3 and causing $21.1 million in damage. After weakening to a tropical storm, Nepartak made landfall in mainland China, where it killed at least 83 people and caused $1.51 billion in damage. Here, we see a radar image of Super Typhoon Nepartak taken at 11:30 am EDT July 7, 2016 (11:30 pm local time in Taiwan), when Nepartak was a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. Image credit: Taiwan CWB.


Disaster 3. Torrential rains fell in northern sections of China from July 16-24, leaving at least 289 people dead or missing, and causing $5 billion in damage. The hardest-hit provinces included Beijing, Hebei, Henan, Shanxi, Tianjin, and Shandong. More than 300,000 homes were damaged or destroyed and as many as 1.2 million hectares (3.0 million acres) of cropland was submerged. This photo taken on July 21, 2016 shows people making their way through a flooded area in Changping District in Beijing. Image credit: STR/AFP/Getty Images.

Bountiful but deadly monsoon rains continue in India
India, whose $5 billion drought was Earth's second most expensive weather-related natural disaster of the first half of 2016, is finally getting a good monsoon after two straight years of poor rains. According to the India Meteorological Department, monsoon rains during the period July 1 - August 16, 2016 were right at average. However, July monsoon floods left more than 230 people dead or missing in India, Nepal, Pakistan, Indonesia and Afghanistan as tens of thousands of homes were destroyed.

Notable global heat and cold marks set in July 2016
Hottest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: 54.0°C (129.2°F) at Mitribah, Kuwait, 21 July*
Coldest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: -30.5°C (-22.9°F) at Geo Summit, Greenland, 31 July**
Hottest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: 41.1°C (106.0°F) at Matupa, Brazil, 11 July
Coldest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: -82.4°C (-116.3°F) at Concordia, Antarctica, 8 July
(Courtesy of Maximiliano Herrera.)

** Ties lowest temperature ever recorded in July in the entire Northern Hemisphere.

Major weather stations that set (not tied) new all-time heat or cold records in July 2016 (Courtesy of Maximiliano Herrera)
Beru (Kiribati) max. 35.2°C, 2 July
Owase (Japan) max. 38.6 °C,3 July
Ruoqiang (China) max. 43.9°C, 3 July
Shahdad (Iran) max. 51.7°C, 4 July
Indio Hatuey (Cuba) max 38.2°C, 5 July
Ulan Ude (Russia) max. 40.6°C, 8 July
Krasnyj Chikoj (Russia) max. 39.3°C, 8 July
Iquique (Chile) max. 33.4°C, 8 July
La Paz (Mexico) max. 44.0°C, 10 July
Xi Ujimqin Qi (China) max. 39.7°C, 10 July
Deadhorse Airport (Alaska,USA) max. 29.4°C, 13 July
Kuparuk (Alaska,USA) max. 29.4°C, 13 July
San Jon (New Mexico,USA) max. 43.9°C, 13 July
Tindouf (Algeria) max. 48.3°C, 15 July
Ploumanach (France) max. 36.2°C, 19 July
Cap de la Hague (France) max. 32.3°C, 19 July
Salahaddin (Iraq) max. 41.5°C, 20 July
Basra (Iraq) max. 53.4°C, 21 July: New national record high for Iraq; increased to 53.9°C on 22 July
Kut al Yai (Iraq) max. 52.0°C, 21 July
Amarah (Iraq) max. 52.2°C, 21 July
Kanaqin (Iraq) max. 52.6°C, 21 July
Mitribah (Kuwait) max. 54.0°C, 21 July: New national record high for Kuwait *
Al Salmi (Kuwait) max. 50.4°C, 21 July; increased to 50.9°C on 22 July
Dunhuang (China) max. 43.1°C, 30 June
Mazong Shan (China) max. 36.2°C, 30 June

Notes from Maximiliano Herrera:
* 54.0°C at Mitribah is a new record of highest temperature for Asia (being the same value reached at Tirats Tsvi in 1942 highly unreliable- in my opinion around 4-5°C overestimated). It also ties the 54.0°C or 129.2°F (although officially 129°F) set at Death Valley, California on 30 June 2013 as the world record of the highest reliable temperature ever recorded. (The 134°F official record in Greenland Ranch are in my opinion around 12°F to 15°F overestimated). Therefore, It is also a new world record for July.

On 9 July Hong Kong tied its record of highest temperature ever with 37.9°C at Happy Valley. The same value was recorded at the same location in 2015.

On 22 July, Delhoran, Iran recorded 53.0°C, tying the Iranian highest reliable temperature on record which was set at the same station and at Gotvand.

Four all-time national heat records set or tied in July 2016
Four nations or territories--Kuwait, Iraq, Iran, and Hong Kong--set or tied records in July 2016 for their all-time hottest temperature on record. From January through August 16, 2016, a total of sixteen nations or territories tied or set all-time records for their hottest temperature in recorded history. Only 2010 has had more all-time heat records set--seventeen. Also, one all-time cold temperature record has been set so far in 2016 (in Hong Kong.) "All-time" record here refers to the warmest or coldest temperature ever reliably reported in a nation or territory. The period of record varies from country to country and station to station, but it is typically a few decades to a century or more. Most nations do not maintain official databases of extreme temperature records, so the national temperature records reported here are in many cases not official. Our data source is international weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, one of the world's top climatologists, who maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website. If you reproduce this list of extremes, please cite Maximiliano Herrera as the primary source of the weather records. Here are 2016's all-time heat and cold records as of August 16:

Iraq set its all-time hottest record on July 22, 2016, when the mercury hit 53.9°C (129.0°F) at Basrah.

Iran tied its all-time hottest record on July 22, 2016, when the mercury hit 53.0°C (127.4°F) at Delhoran.

Kuwait set its all-time hottest record on July 21, 2016, when the mercury hit 54.0°C (129.2°F) at Mitribah.

Hong Kong Territory (China) tied its all-time hottest record on July 9, 2016, when the mercury hit 37.9°C (100.2°F) at Happy Valley.

Niger set its all-time hottest record on June 8, 2016, when the mercury hit 49.0°C (120.2°F) at Bilma.

Palau tied its all-time hottest record on June 8, 2016, when the mercury hit 34.4°C (93.9°F) at Koror AWS.

India set its all-time hottest record on May 19, 2016, when the mercury hit 51.0°C (123.8°F) at Phalodi.

Maldives set its all-time hottest record on April 30, 2016, when the mercury hit 35.0°C (95.0°F) at Hanimaadhoo.

Thailand set its all-time hottest record on April 28, 2016, when the mercury hit 44.6°C (112.3°F) at Mae Hong Son.

Cambodia set its all-time hottest record on April 15, 2016, when the mercury hit 42.6°C (108.7°F) at Preah Vihea.

Burkina Faso set its all-time hottest record on April 13, 2016, when the mercury hit 47.5°C (117.5°F) at Dori.

Laos set its all-time hottest record on April 12, 2016, when the mercury hit 42.3°C (108.1°F) at Seno.

Vanuatu in the South Pacific set its all-time hottest record on February 8, 2016, when the mercury hit 36.2°C (97.2°F) at Lamap Malekula.

Tonga set its all-time hottest record on February 1, 2016, when the mercury hit 35.5°C (95.9°F) at Niuafoou.

Wallis and Futuna Territory (France) set a new territorial heat record with 35.8°C (96.4°F) on January 10, 2016 at Futuna Airport. This is the second year in a row that Wallis and Futuna has beaten its all-time heat mark; the previous record was a 35.5°C (95.9°F) reading on January 19, 2015 at the Futuna Airport.

Botswana set its all-time hottest record on January 7, 2016, when the mercury hit 43.8°C (110.8°F) at Maun.

Hong Kong Territory (China) set its all-time coldest mark on January 24, 2016, when the mercury dipped to -6.0°C (21.2°F) at Tai Mo Shan.

TD 6 likely to become Tropical Storm Fiona
Tropical Depression 6 in the remote eastern Atlantic is likely to become Tropical Storm Fiona by later Wednesday, according to the National Hurricane Center. See our post from Wednesday morning for more on TD 6's status and outlook. We'll be back Thursday with our next update.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson