Typhoon Higos Makes History in NW Pacific; Heavy Snow, Floods Pummel Southern Europe

With an unexpected burst of intensification on Monday, Typhoon Higos became the strongest tropical cyclone on record for so early in the year in the Northern Hemisphere. The compact typhoon dissipated quickly after its show of strength, having spun out its short life over an empty stretch of the Northwest Pacific roughly midway between the Marshall Islands and Northern Mariana Islands. The official peak intensity of Higos, as recorded by Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JWTC) was 105 kts (120 mph) at 0600 GMT on February 10, making it a Category 3. Satellite imagery suggests that Higos may have briefly spiked at Category 4 strength, with an outside chance of Category 5 strength, so the storm’s peak winds could be revised in later analyses. Two NASA satellites were in place to estimate rainfall rates below Higos.


Figure 1. NASA's Aqua satellite captured this visible image of Typhoon Higos at 0310 GMT on February 10, 2015. Image credit: NASA Goddard MODIS Rapid Response Team.


Figure 2. The satellite image at right of Higos, collected at 0301 GMT on February 10, 2015, shows a solid field of intense convection around the typhoon’s distinct eye. The typhoon’s intensity at this point or shortly thereafter may have been stronger than the officially recorded peak of 105 kts (120 mph). Image credit: NOAA, via @wxtrackercody.


Typhoons do form on occasion in February over the Northwest Pacific, with 36 tropical cyclones on record for the region since 1900 in NOAA’s Historical Hurricane Tracks website. However, these storms tend to develop late in the month, with their peak intensities often occurring in early March. Supertyphoon Mitag formed at the end of February 2002 and attained peak winds of 140 kts (160 mph) on March 5. The strongest intensity in the official record during February is 1970’s Typhoon Nancy, whose winds reached 120 kts (140 mph) on February 24. This also stands as a record for the entire Northern Hemisphere, since water temperatures are normally too cool and wind shear too strong to allow for hurricane development so early in the Northeast Pacific and North Atlantic.

Another noteworthy aspect of Higos is its position-–at peak intensity, it was more than 500 miles east of the track of any other February typhoon. The next closest is 2014’s Typhoon Faxai, although Faxai did not peak until early March. Sea-surface temperatures were close to 1°C warmer than average across the region where Higos developed (see Figure 3), part of a pattern of unusual warmth covering much of the western tropical Pacific.



Figure 3. Departures from average (anomalies) in sea-surface temperature (degrees C) for February 5, 2015, just before Typhoon Higos developed. Image credit: NOAA Office of Satellite and Product Operations.

Big snow, major flooding in Mediterranean Europe
While New England has been dealing with a spectacular onslaught of snow over the past week, southern Europe has gotten its own high-impact weather. The most devastating toll has actually been offshore: on Sunday, 29 migrants attempting to sail from Libya to Italy died of hypothermia after being rescued from the Mediterranean, and the United Nations now reports that at least 300 migrants in all appear to have drowned as several rubber dinghies capsized. Hundreds of motorists were rescued late last week after being trapped by as much as 15” of snow that fell across the Pyrenees and Cantabrian Mountains of far northern Spain. The much-touristed city of Bilboa received its heaviest snow since 1985, according to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera. Further east, the worst flooding in more than 40 years struck southern Albania last week. One district reported more than 11” of rain last week, more than double its average for the entire month. Tents, bedding, and winter clothes are en route from EU members Austria and Slovakia to help hundreds of flooding evacuees. Albanian prime minister Edi Rama asserted in an interview with the Guardian that deforestation and soil erosion contributed to the rainfall’s impact, and that poorly maintained dams and reservoirs could make matters worse.

I’ll have an update Thursday on the next round of bitter cold and potential snow heading for the Northeast U.S.

Bob Henson


Figure 4. Snow covers part of the cloisters at Roncesvalles Church, in the Pyrenees Mountains of northern Spain, on February 5. Image credit: AP Photo/Alvaro Barrientos.