Tropics remain quiet, typical for June

Although we got an early start to the 2008 hurricane season, things have since slowed down and returned to normal. I spent quite some time this morning scouring through the models and satellite images looking for some signs of tropical development, but none was to be found. The only action in the Atlantic is a weak upper level low moving from the Bahamas across South Florida today. Conditions are not favorable for development as the low enters the Gulf of Mexico.


Atlantic visible satellite

It is still very early in the season. Usually we wouldn't have seen a single storm by this point. Considering that the official long term 'forecasts' all called for climatology, this season remains unremarkable. We're still a couple months away from things getting very exciting.


Hurricane frequency by date (Credit: NOAA)

If you're looking for tropical development in the Atlantic at this time of year, your best bet is looking in the southern Gulf and western Caribbean. It is still very early to see development in the Atlantic proper. Wind shear is still strong at higher latitudes and the central Atlantic has yet to warm to temperatures conducive for tropical development.


June hurricane genesis index and locations (Emanuel and Nolan 2004)

Elsewhere in the country, the severe weather situation seems to have quieted down from earlier in the season. While there are still active areas associated with frontal boundaries draped across the eastern half of the continent, they are significantly less active than earlier this season. Usually by June the severe weather season shifts to the High Plains. Those storms are associated with potential vorticity anomalies advecting off of the Rockies. Below you will find a map of yesterday's severe reports. A similar, though slightly advected pattern is expected today.


Yesterday's severe weather reports from SPC

Bryan Woods, filling in for Jeff Masters