New threat near Barbados; Panama disturbance fizzles

The tropical disturbance that has festered over the waters between Panama and Nicaragua the past three days has dissipated, and tropical storm formation is no longer expected in this region.

A new area of disturbed weather has developed about 80 miles south of Barbados this morning. A low level circulation center is apparent near 12N 59W on both visible satellite imagery and an 8 am EDT QuikSCAT satellite pass. Deep convection associated with this 1007 mb low is mostly to its north, where the QuicSCAT satellite saw winds of up to 35 mph. Wind shear is quite high for tropical storm formation to occur, about 20 knots, but this shear is expected to decrease over the next few days. A tropical depression could form as early as Monday as the system crosses the Lesser Antilles islands into the eastern Caribbean. It is more likely, however, that development would occur Wednesday or later as the system moves into the central Caribbean.

The models are not gung-ho on this system, except for the Canadian model, which brings it quickly to hurricane strength just south of Hispanolia on Wednesday. The GFS model doesn't develop the system at all, and the other models forecast a weak tropical storm in the central Caribbean by Thursday.


Figure 1. Early model runs for the disturbance near Barbados.

I'll have an update Monday morning, or late tonight if the system develops.

Jeff Masters