WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™
Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.La Ni�a strengthens
La Ni�a continues to influence our weather, and has strengthened some in the past month, according the the latest discussion issued today by NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. They predict that La Ni�a will continue at least until June, and probably into October. If this prediction holds true, we are likely to see another very active hurricane season in the Atlantic, as wind shear is typically quite low over the Atlantic during La Ni�a conditions. Dr. Bill Gray's forecast (issued December 6) is calling for 17 tropical storms (average is 11), 9 hurricanes (average is 6), and 5 intense hurricanes (average is 2-3). It will be interesting to see if the stronger than expected La Ni�a conditions will cause him to raise his numbers in his forthcoming April 4 forecast for the 2006 hurricane season. The NOAA hurricane forecast will be issued in mid-May.
Figure 1. Heavy La Ni�a rains fell in mid-February over the Philippines, triggering a devastating mud slide that killed over 1500. Image credit: NASA's TRMM project.
La Ni�a has brought increased rains to portions of Ecuador, northern Peru, Hawaii (which suffered moderate flooding problems last week), and of course the Philippines, where a devastating mud slide killed over 1500 on the island of Leyte. On the flip side, La Ni�a has brought drought conditions to the south-central and southwestern U.S. Phoenix, Arizona has recorded its 142nd consecutive day without rain today, and Flagstaff has recorded only 2.6" of snow this winter--77 inches below normal, and 110 inches below last year's snowfall. The Snowbowl ski area near Flagstaff was unable to open this year for the first time in its history. Rain is forecast to fall over much of Arizona on Saturday, but not enough to significantly dent the drought.
Tornadoes today
My next update depends on the weather--severe weather and tornadoes are expected over much of the southern U.S. today, and we'll see what storms develop. Already this morning, tornadoes have been reported in Arkansas and Tenessee, along with damage from 70 mph thunderstorm winds and baseball-sized hail.
Jeff Masters
Figure 1. Heavy La Ni�a rains fell in mid-February over the Philippines, triggering a devastating mud slide that killed over 1500. Image credit: NASA's TRMM project.
La Ni�a has brought increased rains to portions of Ecuador, northern Peru, Hawaii (which suffered moderate flooding problems last week), and of course the Philippines, where a devastating mud slide killed over 1500 on the island of Leyte. On the flip side, La Ni�a has brought drought conditions to the south-central and southwestern U.S. Phoenix, Arizona has recorded its 142nd consecutive day without rain today, and Flagstaff has recorded only 2.6" of snow this winter--77 inches below normal, and 110 inches below last year's snowfall. The Snowbowl ski area near Flagstaff was unable to open this year for the first time in its history. Rain is forecast to fall over much of Arizona on Saturday, but not enough to significantly dent the drought.
Tornadoes today
My next update depends on the weather--severe weather and tornadoes are expected over much of the southern U.S. today, and we'll see what storms develop. Already this morning, tornadoes have been reported in Arkansas and Tenessee, along with damage from 70 mph thunderstorm winds and baseball-sized hail.
Jeff Masters
RAIN IN PHOENIX after 146 days
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.