January 2017: Earth's 3rd Warmest January on Record; Lake Oroville Water Levels Drop

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson , 5:38 PM GMT on February 16, 2017

January 2017 was the planet's third warmest January since record keeping began in 1880, said NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) on Thursday. Along with NOAA, NASA also rated January 2017 as the third warmest January on record. The only warmer Januarys were 2016 (highest) and 2007 (second highest). Global ocean temperatures during January 2017 were the second warmest on record, and global land temperatures were the third warmest on record. Global satellite-measured temperatures in January 2017 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the sixth warmest in the 39-year record, according to the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH).

It's remarkable that Earth saw its third warmest January on record without any help from El Niño, which works to raise global air temperatures by exporting heat from the oceans. Sea-surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region of the tropical Pacific rose into the cool side of the neutral range during January, although a La Niña Advisory was still in effect. In contrast, the warmest and second warmest Januarys (2007 and 2016) both occurred during an El Niño event.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for January 2017, the 3rd warmest January for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Three of the six continents had at least a top six warm January, with South America having its second warmest January since continental records began in 1910 (behind 2016.) Image credit: National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).

No billion-dollar weather disasters in January 2017
No billion-dollar weather-related disasters hit the Earth last month, according to the January 2017 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield. The most destructive weather-related event during the month was Chile’s worst wildfires in modern history, which killed eleven people and cost at least $890 million. The deadliest weather-related disaster of January was the rainy season flooding in the southern African countries of Mozambique and Zimbabwe, which killed at least 179 people.


Figure 2. Smoke settles over Santiago, Chile on January 20, 2017. January fires in Chile cost the nation at least $890 million, and killed eleven people. Pudahuel Airport in western Santiago on January 20 hit 37.7°C (99.9°F), the hottest temperature ever recorded in the Santiago metropolitan area. Santiago Observatory (with records back to 1866) set its all-time heat record on January 25, 2017 with 37.4°C. Image credit: Martin Bernetti/AFP/Getty Images.

So Long, La Niña; Hello again, El Niño?
In its February monthly advisory, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) sounded the death knell for the 2016-17 La Niña. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the benchmark Niño 3.4 region (in the equatorial Pacific) warmed to 0.3°C below average during early February; SSTs of 0.5°C or more below average in this region are required to be classified as weak La Niña conditions. Over the past week, SSTs have warmed rapidly in the Niño 3.4 region to more than 0.5°C above average but this surge may be temporary (Figure 3). We would need to see sustained warmth for many weeks at this level before crying, “El Niño is coming!” NOAA forecasters estimate an approximately 60% chance of neutral conditions lasting through the spring. For the September - November 2017 period, they predict a 12% chance of La Niña conditions, a 40% chance of neutral conditions, and a 48% chance of an El Niño. The latest Australian Bureau of Meteorology models are more aggressive about El Niño, showing development by this spring, and the latest May-June-July run of the UKMET model predicted a moderate El Niño by early summer. El Niño conditions tend to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity by bringing strong upper-level winds to the tropical Atlantic, creating high wind shear that tears storms apart.


Figure 3. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the benchmark Niño 3.4 region (in the equatorial Pacific) have warmed above the 0.5°C above average threshold over the past week; SSTs of 0.5°C or more above average in this region are required to be classified as weak El Niño conditions. This recent surge in SSTs may be temporary; as Micheal Ventrice noted on Twitter today, there was a westerly wind burst over the past week that helped fuel this warming, but near-normal easterly trade winds have resumed. Image credit: Levi Cowan, tropicaltidbits.com.

Arctic sea ice falls to lowest January extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during January 2017 was the lowest in the 39-year satellite record, beating the record set in January 2016, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Very warm air invaded the Arctic in mid-January, part of a trend we’ve seen all winter. A drifting buoy located near the Pole, at about 87°N latitude, has recorded temperatures at or above freezing three times since November: once in November 2016, once in December 2016, and once on February 10. In a February 10 interview in the Washington Post, atmospheric physics expert Kent Moore of the University of Toronto noted that these types of anomalous warming events have been recorded since the 1950s, but only occurred once or twice a decade. Record arctic sea ice loss in recent years is allowing these events to occur more frequently. Moore said: “As that sea ice moves northward, there’s a huge reservoir of heat over the north Atlantic. As we lose the sea ice, it allows essentially this reservoir of warmth to move closer to the pole.”

Notable global heat and cold marks set for January 2017
Hottest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: 41.5°C (106.7°F) at N'Djamena, Chad, 24 January
Coldest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: -58.7°C (-73.7°F) at Summit, Greenland, 12 January
Hottest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: 47.0°C (116.6°F) at Bourke Airport, Australia, 13 January
Coldest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: -45.3°C (-49.5°F) at Dome A, Antarctica, 31 January
(Courtesy of Maximiliano Herrera.)

Major weather stations that set (not tied) new all-time heat or cold records in January 2017
Durres (Albania) min. -9.0°C, 8 January
Vlore (Albania) min. -9.4°C, 8 January
Dudince (Slovakia) min. -30.5°C, 8 January
Apia (Samoa) max. 35.2°C, 9 January
Santiago Airport (Chile) max. 37.7°C, 20 January
Isla de Maipo (Chile) max. 37.9°C, 20 January
Santiago Observatory (Chile) max. 37.4°C, 25 January
Rapel (Chile) max. 36.8°C, 25 January
Linares (Chile) max. 41.8°C, 26 January
Chillan (Chile) max. 41.5°C, 26 January
Quinchamali (Chile) max. 43.0°C, 26 January
Los Angeles (Chile) max. 42.2°C, 26 January 
Parral (Chile) max. 40.8°C, 26 January
Concepcion Airport (Chile) max. 34.1°C, 26 January
Cauquenes (Chile) max. 45.0°C, 26 January;  (new national record high for Chile)
Robinson Crusoe Island-Juan Fernandez (Chile) max. 28.8°C, 26 January
Trelew (Argentina) max. 42.2°C, 27 January
Puerto Madryn (Argentina) max. 43.4°C, 27 January

(Courtesy of Maximiliano Herrera.)

One all-time national heat record set in January 2017
One nation set an all-time record for hottest temperature in recorded history in 2017: Chile (see above). Most nations do not maintain official databases of extreme temperature records, so the national temperature records reported here are in many cases not official. I use as my source for international weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, one of the world's top climatologists, who maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website. If you reproduce this list of extremes, please cite Maximiliano Herrera as the primary source of the weather records.


Figure 4. Departures from average temperature (left) and precipitation (right) for the contiguous United States in January 2017. Image credit: NOAA/NCEI.

U.S. in January: Warmer and wetter than average
Last month the contiguous U.S. saw its 18th warmest and 9th wettest January in 123 years of record-keeping, as reported last week by NOAA/NCEI. Warmer-than-average temperatures covered nearly all of the nation east of the Rockies during January as a whole, although there was considerable variability, including a sharp cold spell in the second week of the month. Most states along a swath from Texas to Maine saw a top-ten-warmest January, although no state set a record. Only two states (Washington and Montana) experienced precipitation well below average, while ten states from California to Georgia saw the month place among their top ten wettest Januarys.


Figure 5. Predicted 7-day rainfall amounts in northern California beginning on Thursday, February 16. Image credit: NWS Sacramento.

Water levels in Lake Oroville continue to drop even as rains hit California
The water level at the troubled Lake Oroville reservoir in California continued to drop on Thursday morning, even as rainy weather moved into the region. The lake level fell by nearly 5 feet in the 12-hour period ending at 6 a.m. PST Thursday, to 869 feet, about 30 feet below its capacity. According to reports from the Sacramento Bee, state water officials continued to release 100,000 cubic feet per second (cfs) of water from the lake’s main spillway, and damage to that spillway has not worsened. Water was flowing into the lake at 34,000 cfs Thursday morning. About one half inch of rain is expected in the area on Thursday, with another half-inch on Friday (the rains will be much heavier in Southern California, see embedded tweet below.) Dam operators are expecting inflows of up to 50,000 cfs through Friday, so the lake level will continue to fall as long as the main spillway continues to release 100,000 cfs of water. During last week’s heavy rains that caused the reservoir to overflow, inflow peaked at 197,000 cfs. On Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, another very wet Pacific storm system is expected to dump at least three inches of rain on the area. This is about the same amount of rain that fell during the storm that caused inflow rates to reach 197,000 cfs last week. If the upstream rainfall amounts also end up being similar in magnitude to last week’s storm, we can expect Lake Oroville to begin rising by Monday. However, assuming that dam operators can continuously release 100,000 cfs of water from the reservoir during the coming week, it appears unlikely that the lake will reach 900 feet and force usage of the emergency spillway again.

Climatesignals.org has an excellent summary of how climate change may have contributed to the Lake Oroville Dam emergency.

We'll have a new post on Friday.

Jeff Masters and Bob Henson




The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

Log In or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 197 - 147

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4Blog Index

197. LowerCal
7:34 PM GMT on February 17, 2017
Quoting 116. frank727:

It is sad when the Governor of California Jerry Brown has spent 25 billion dollars on sanctuary cities and not cared about the residents of his state to make repairs on the infrastructure.
Quoting 167. JNFlori30A:

Infrastructure is an inconvenient truth
If you are inclined to do some thinking then here are some things to think about:

FACT CHECK: Did California Divert Dam Repair Funds to Programs for 'Illegals'? | snopes.com
(Below are excerpts. Click the above link for the complete article.)
Money for the state's dam infrastructure does not come from the same fund as programs that would pay for programs serving immigrants, either with or without documents.

....

While it is true that environmental groups have been warning state and federal authorities about structural deficiencies at Oroville Dam since well before Brown took office, the dam and programs for undocumented immigrants are funded from separate budget sources, thus spending on one does not impact the other. Ted Thomas, spokesman for the California Department of Water Resources, told us:

Lake Oroville is part of the State Water Project, which is owned and operated by the California Department of Water Resources. All of the construction, operation, and maintenance costs of the State Water Project are paid by the 29 public water agencies (known as the SWP contractors) that take delivery of water from the project.

....

In October 2005, as the Oroville Dam was going through a re-licensing process, the three groups filed a motion urging a federal regulatory agency to require state officials to armor the emergency spillway with concrete so that in the event of extreme rain and flooding, water would not freely cascade down and erode the hillside. The upgrade would have cost millions of dollars and no one wanted to foot the bill, said Ronald Stork, senior policy advocate for Friends of the River, one of the groups that filed the motion.

"When the dam is overfull, water goes over that weir and down the hillside, taking much of the hillside with it," Stork told The Washington Post. "That causes huge amounts of havoc. There's roads, there's transmission lines, power lines that are potentially in the way of that water going down that auxiliary spillway."

Federal officials, however, determined that nothing was wrong and the emergency spillway, which can handle 350,000 cubic feet of water per second, "would perform as designed" and sediment resulting from erosion would be insignificant, according to a July 2006 memo from John Onderdonk, then a senior civil engineer for the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.

....
Those benefiting from the dam's operation should have paid the cost of upgrading the emergency spillway but they were let off the hook by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.


Then consider what exactly is a "sanctuary city"? Since they are not paid for it some city and county jurisdictions refuse to use their local law enforcement officers and jail facilities to detain those who they are supposed to somehow determine might be undocumented immigrants and assume any liabilities for that detention. The local jurisdictions take the view that these things are ICE's (Immigration and Customs Enforcement, a federal agency) responsibilities and liabilities.

What happened when a pro-Trump county discovered it was a 'sanctuary city' - The Washington Post
(Below are excerpts. Click the above link for the complete article.)
The sheriff didn't know what to make of it. Local politicians and residents were stunned. Word was spreading throughout the Appalachian mountain valley that this county, a place so red that Donald Trump walked away with 83 percent of the presidential vote, was considered a "sanctuary city" - a protective refuge where local law enforcement officials refused to cooperate with federal immigration authorities.

....
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
196. MontanaZephyr
5:42 PM GMT on February 17, 2017
Quoting 171. Patrap:

Shame?

Off with their heads is a better wording...maybe ?

Emboldened by their Trump, they are doing things today that are utterly destructive.

Take the EPA situ.

You dont think NOAA isn't next on their cut list?

Awaken to reality.

The new norm is anything but.

Dont let it hypnotize one.

All that our fathers past sacrificed, fought and strived for can be gone by 1 April.

Let that sink in.




FWIW, I have come to think that the the House bill to end the EPA (sorry have lost the link), which consists of a single sentence, had two purposes.

1) To put such fear in the proponents of EPA that they will gladly accept ANY changes if only it is allowed to survive, and

2) The Brits used to say, regarding the difference in sensibilities between themselves and the Americans, "The British will let and idea brood to see if anything is going to hatch. The Americans will run an idea up a flagpole to see if anyone salutes". I think that this bill may also secondarily be a case of that.

I've never heard of a piece of federal legislation that consisted of a single sentence, and the sponsoring hoodlums should be run out of office for the crime of offending the populace with such contemptuously reckless stupidity posing as public service.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
195. georgevandenberghe
5:23 PM GMT on February 17, 2017
Quoting 189. Gearsts:

What are you talking about?


Sarcastic response to the comment quoted in 185. Intended for humor.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
194. Some1Has2BtheRookie
5:21 PM GMT on February 17, 2017
Quoting 189. Gearsts:

What are you talking about?


I believe that it is the lost city of Atlantis and its urban heat island in the ocean.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
193. frank727
5:21 PM GMT on February 17, 2017
Quoting 174. Patrap:

21 min ago, AP

AP Top News
Trump weighs mobilizing Nat Guard for immigration roundups


The 11-page document calls for the unprecedented militarization of immigration enforcement as far north as Portland, Oregon, and as far east as New Orleans, Louisiana.


What does this have to do with weather. If you want to post this stuff go om GLP.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
192. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
5:20 PM GMT on February 17, 2017
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
191. Some1Has2BtheRookie
5:19 PM GMT on February 17, 2017
Quoting 190. MontanaZephyr:



His (or her) comment was so fatuously stupid that I assumed that everyone would simply ignore it.


There was a time, not that long ago, that I believed that the vast majority of people would have ignored it. I am no longer so certain that this would be the case. 99.9% of the regulars here would ignore it. The regulars are not the only ones here.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
190. MontanaZephyr
5:12 PM GMT on February 17, 2017
Quoting 114. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



There is a difference between seasonal changes in local climate and changes in the global climate. Global scale climate change will create greater changes in the seasonal changes of the local climate. Perhaps this is a viewpoint that you have never considered before?


His (or her) comment was so fatuously stupid that I assumed that everyone would simply ignore it.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
189. Gearsts
5:12 PM GMT on February 17, 2017
Quoting 185. georgevandenberghe:



Check the temperature records for Atlantis.
What are you talking about?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
188. RitaandIke
5:10 PM GMT on February 17, 2017
Quoting 178. civEngineer:



great thread at that forum, ton's of info


For those of you that go there for the first time, there are 2 sister threads for Oroville as well.
1 covering the erosion at the spillways and 1 regarding the expected rainfall impacts.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
187. Some1Has2BtheRookie
5:10 PM GMT on February 17, 2017
Quoting 172. civEngineer:

Oroville Update:

Apparently in the construction of the emergency spillway the contractors used rippers to rip and excavate into the bedrock, removing the rind of rotted rock and anchor into good material and even notes that the good material was so hard as to ruin their equipment made just for such activity. As we discussed before though there is still no way to know if they made the effort to hog out the gullies in the bedrock or simply bridged them with the structure, though in the video of the creation of the main dam it does show them hydro-jetting the bedrock effectively "strip-mining it" so they may have done that under the emergency spillway as well. Also, the spillway was grouted at least on the lakeside to the bedrock as seen in the construction plan detail below. Important to note though that the spillway is not a monolithic concrete block, it has a 4 ft thick concrete cap.

Speculation - the threat was real as the observed erosion indicated. However, the spillway itself may not have catastrophically failed even if the erosion did make it back to the spillway, and then again it might have. Count our blessings that at this point it appears we won't need to find out.

Pithy Comment - Seems like the request for federal disaster funding may have been a little premature.

http://www.petersoncat.com/history/oroville-dam



Also there is a damning picture taken in 2013 going locally viral now showing DWR inspecting an issue at the point of failure suggesting that maybe they new it was a weak spot years ago...




I am not so certain that the request for federal aid was premature. It was modern day engineers that were looking at the current situation at the dam and they were the ones that were sounding the alarm. I am almost certain that the engineers that had designed the gate system and its spillway had ever envisioned that the spillway would fail as it did.

I also read the article that you linked and the article was far more about the construction equipment used than about the actual construction methods being used. There is very little to be known about how stable the emergency spillway crest would be, with the down slope erosion that did occur, when being based on that article. The drawing only pertains to the construction of the emergency spillway crest itself. As we witnessed, the erosion below the emergency spillway crest was quite severe and came to within a few feet of the west end of the spillway. Perhaps the call for federal aid was premature, but you could not make this assumption based on what we saw happening at the gated spillway and the emergency spillway itself.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
186. DeepSeaRising
5:09 PM GMT on February 17, 2017
Mass distraction Wash not mass destruction. Mass destruction of environmental protections should be a concern for us all. History should be a reminder of what America was like before these protections were put in place. To forget is to repeat, history shows us over and over again the truth of just that.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
185. georgevandenberghe
5:09 PM GMT on February 17, 2017
Quoting 131. MrTornadochase:


So are you saying there are cities in the middle of the ocean that create record warm ocean temperatures? Perhaps there's a giant one creating all that heat in the Arctic? I may be mislead, but I am unaware of such cities.


Check the temperature records for Atlantis.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
184. kestrel68
5:08 PM GMT on February 17, 2017
Quoting 181. washingtonian115:

How is asking for something to spin harmlessly out to sea asking for destruction?

The word used was distraction, not destruction.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
183. MontanaZephyr
5:07 PM GMT on February 17, 2017
Strongest storm in years taking aim at Southern California
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
182. Gearsts
5:05 PM GMT on February 17, 2017
Quoting 148. StormTrackerScott:



No it doesn't at all as the sea surface pattern resembles last year with the warmest sea surface temps near the US. Could be another rough Hurricane Season actually for the US.
US hasn't had a rough hurricane season since 2008.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
181. washingtonian115
5:03 PM GMT on February 17, 2017
How is asking for something to spin harmlessly out to sea asking for destruction?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
180. Lewis101
4:50 PM GMT on February 17, 2017
Societies that understand weather (proxy for science) have better crops, and more of their babies survive, and the gene pool is improved.

Societies that tolerate cults of ignorance, have worse crops, and their babies die, again improving the gene pool.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
179. DeepSeaRising
4:46 PM GMT on February 17, 2017
The American people as a whole are unable to grasp the totality of what's happening. So we need a Cat five right? Or some other form of mass distraction. As if we don't have those in spades in America. We need people to unite around a common goal of doing what's right for each other. It's black and white as can be. And yet, we've been so divided, that we can't even see the glaringly obvious. We need to wake the hell up and stop being played against each other like well trained by wolves sheep.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
178. civEngineer
4:45 PM GMT on February 17, 2017
Quoting 175. RitaandIke:



This was seen on 1/27/2017
http://www.metabunk.org/attachments/20170216-1323 17-vyiah-jpg.24728/


great thread at that forum, tons of info
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
177. nrtiwlnvragn
4:37 PM GMT on February 17, 2017
Quoting 169. weathermanwannabe:


Florida sits atop porous limestone and it could potentially make its way back up into the Aquafer; shame on them........................................


It can mix with the treated sewage already being injected down there.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
176. washingtonian115
4:37 PM GMT on February 17, 2017
A category 5 spinning harmlessly out to sea will do this blog wonders.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
175. RitaandIke
4:31 PM GMT on February 17, 2017
Quoting 172. civEngineer:

Oroville Update:

Apparently in the construction of the emergency spillway the contractors used rippers to rip and excavate into the bedrock, removing the rind of rotted rock and anchor into good material and even notes that the good material was so hard as to ruin their equipment made just for such activity. As we discussed before though there is still no way to know if they made the effort to hog out the gullies in the bedrock or simply bridged them with the structure, though in the video of the creation of the main dam it does show them hydro-jetting the bedrock effectively "strip-mining it" so they may have done that under the emergency spillway as well. Also, the spillway was grouted at least on the lakeside to the bedrock as seen in the construction plan detail below. Important to note though that the spillway is not a monolithic concrete block, it has a 4 ft thick concrete cap.

Speculation - the threat was real as the observed erosion indicated. However, the spillway itself may not have catastrophically failed even if the erosion did make it back to the spillway, and then again it might have. Count our blessings that at this point it appears we won't need to find out.

Pithy Comment - Seems like the request for federal disaster funding may have been a little premature.

http://www.petersoncat.com/history/oroville-dam



Also there is a damning picture going locally viral now showing DWR inspecting weeping where at the point of failure suggesting that maybe they new it was a weak spot years ago...




This was seen on 1/27/2017
http://www.metabunk.org/attachments/20170216-1323 17-vyiah-jpg.24728/
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
174. Patrap
4:27 PM GMT on February 17, 2017
21 min ago, AP

AP Top News
Trump weighs mobilizing Nat Guard for immigration roundups


The 11-page document calls for the unprecedented militarization of immigration enforcement as far north as Portland, Oregon, and as far east as New Orleans, Louisiana.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
173. DeepSeaRising
4:19 PM GMT on February 17, 2017
Truth whispers through the reign "I am measurable, you are detestable, your lying words can't stop me." Science screams through the reign "Measurable knows can not be unknown for all the greed in the world won't stop me." Many Americans say through the reign "I don't get involved, it doesn't matter to me, and I'm too well entertained to look anyway." If we don't move, we will be moved, faster and faster for this lie caster, if we're not careful, we will end up in disaster.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
172. civEngineer
4:14 PM GMT on February 17, 2017
Oroville Update:

Apparently in the construction of the emergency spillway the contractors used rippers to rip and excavate into the bedrock, removing the rind of rotted rock and anchor into good material and even notes that the good material was so hard as to ruin their equipment made just for such activity. As we discussed before though there is still no way to know if they made the effort to hog out the gullies in the bedrock or simply bridged them with the structure, though in the video of the creation of the main dam it does show them hydro-jetting the bedrock effectively "strip-mining it" so they may have done that under the emergency spillway as well. Also, the spillway was grouted at least on the lakeside to the bedrock as seen in the construction plan detail below. Important to note though that the spillway is not a monolithic concrete block, it has a 4 ft thick concrete cap.

Speculation - the threat was real as the observed erosion indicated. However, the spillway itself may not have catastrophically failed even if the erosion did make it back to the spillway, and then again it might have. Count our blessings that at this point it appears we won't need to find out.

Pithy Comment - Seems like the request for federal disaster funding may have been a little premature.

http://www.petersoncat.com/history/oroville-dam



Also there is a damning picture taken in 2013 going locally viral now showing DWR inspecting an issue at the point of failure suggesting that maybe they new it was a weak spot years ago...

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
171. Patrap
4:09 PM GMT on February 17, 2017
Shame?

Off with their heads is a better wording...maybe ?

Emboldened by their Trump, they are doing things today that are utterly destructive.

Take the EPA situ.

You dont think NOAA isn't next on their cut list?

Awaken to reality.

The new norm is anything but.

Dont let it hypnotize one.

All that our fathers past sacrificed, fought and strived for can be gone by 1 April.

Let that sink in.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
170. HurricaneFan
4:07 PM GMT on February 17, 2017
Quoting 160. Skyepony:

NASA's GEOS-5 goes pretty far south with that Gulf of Mexico storm..


Could be a very small chance of this system gaining tropical or subtropical characteristics if it emerges far enough south into the GOM, where SSTs are close to 26-27C. However, shear will most likely be too high. Believe it or not, a subtropical storm almost formed in this area in February 2012, so it's not impossible...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
169. weathermanwannabe
4:05 PM GMT on February 17, 2017

Quoting 158. Skyepony:

Wrote a blog.. There is a link to the petition trying to stop the soon to be injected nuclear waste below the SFL aquifer in there. Those deep wells have a history of failure along the East Coast of Florida, studies show it's a bad idea but FPL has won the fight to do it anyways. It's getting down to last ditch efforts on this issue.

Also crazy surge video from Dineo in there.
Florida sits atop porous limestone and it could potentially make its way back up into the Aquafer; shame on them........................................
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
168. Patrap
3:58 PM GMT on February 17, 2017
The strain of anti-intellectualism has been a constant thread winding its way through our political and cultural life, nurtured by the false notion that democracy means that “my ignorance is just as good as your knowledge.”

☛ “A Cult of Ignorance” by Isaac Asimov.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
167. JNFlori30A
3:54 PM GMT on February 17, 2017
Quoting 116. frank727:



It is sad when the Governor of California Jerry Brown has spent 25 billion dollars on sanctuary cities and not cared about the residents of his state to make repairs on the infrastructure.
Infrastructure is an inconvenient truth
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
166. Xandra
3:35 PM GMT on February 17, 2017
From Phys.org:

Climate change doubled the likelihood of the Australian heatwave


Maximum temperature anomalies across NSW on February 11, the peak of the heatwave. Credit: Bureau of Meteorology, Author provided

[...]

Since Christmas, much of eastern Australia has been in a flux of extreme temperatures. This increased frequency of heatwaves shows a strong trend in observations, which is set to continue as the human influence on the climate deepens.

It is all part of a rapid warming trend that over the past decade has seen new heat records in Australia outnumber new cold records by 12 to 1.

Let's be clear, this is not natural. Climate scientists have long been saying that we would feel the impacts of human-caused climate change in heat records first, before noticing the upward swing in average temperatures (although that is happening too). This heatwave is simply the latest example.

What's more, in just a few decades' time, summer conditions like these will be felt across the whole country regularly.

Attributing the heat

The useful thing scientifically about heatwaves is that we can estimate the role that climate change plays in these individual events. This is a relatively new field known as "event attribution", which has grown and improved significantly over the past decade.

Using the Weather@Home climate model, we looked at the role of human-induced climate change in this latest heatwave, as we have for other events before.

We compared the likelihood of such a heatwave in model simulations that factor in human greenhouse gas emissions, compared with simulations in which there is no such human influence. Since 2017 has only just begun, we used model runs representing 2014, which was similarly an El Niño-neutral year, while also experiencing similar levels of human influence on the climate.

Based on this analysis, we found that heatwaves at least as hot as this one are now twice as likely to occur. In the current climate, a heatwave of this severity and extent occurs, on average, once every 120 years, so is still quite rare. However, without human-induced climate change, this heatwave would only occur once every 240 years.

In other words, the waiting time for the recent east Australian heatwave has halved. As climate change worsens in the coming decades, the waiting time will reduce even further.

Our results show very clearly the influence of climate change on this heatwave event. They tell us that what we saw last weekend is a taste of what our future will bring, unless humans can rapidly and deeply cut our greenhouse emissions.

[...]

Click here to read full article.

See also: weather@home—development and validation of a very large ensemble modelling system for probabilistic event attribution
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
165. Neapolitan
3:34 PM GMT on February 17, 2017
Quoting 164. nashvillebill:

Shall we return to the mentality that dragged Hypatia through the streets until the flesh was ripped from her bones? Shall we return to the mentality that burned Giordano Bruno at the stake? Shall we return to the mentality that convicted Galileo? Their crimes, of course, were merely voicing scientific thought.
I'm afraid that is precisely what some want. If scientific truth contradicts one's ideology, or shows that one's worldview is skewed and in need of adjustment, or threatens one's riches, why, then, the only obvious recourse for too many is to make that scientific truth vanish; to drown it in an ocean of denial, to burn its corpse atop a bonfire of false indignation, to crush its charred bones under the weight of oppression, and to bury the powdered remains beneath a mountain of illogical and frightened and desperately anti-intellectual nonsense.

Many are going to be judged, and harshly. They may not care about that judgement, or they may only think they don't. But be judged they will...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
164. nashvillebill
3:22 PM GMT on February 17, 2017
"Why must there be so much political talk on this blog?" That question is popping up fairly frequently. Indeed, I (and probably many others) would like a blog totally devoid of politics.
However, what we "would like" is NOT what we must do! We are confronted with one political party which is actively enforcing an anti-science, anti-environment agenda. This present administration denies well-documented facts (both scientific and historical), denounces these as "false news", and substitutes their alternative fiction as "the truth". This present administration has elevated, to the highest levels, those who would willingly destroy the environment and stifle the voice of scientists. This present administration is actively seeking to eliminate any dissidence when it comes to their denial of climate change, going so far as to put in place sanctions against those who dare utter the words "climate change". As an engineer--an applied scientist--I am appalled at the anti-intellectualism sweeping our nation. This anti-intellectualism in my opinion is as dangerous as impending climate change, perhaps even more so.

Shall we return to the mentality that dragged Hypatia through the streets until the flesh was ripped from her bones? Shall we return to the mentality that burned Giordano Bruno at the stake? Shall we return to the mentality that convicted Galileo? Their crimes, of course, were merely voicing scientific thought.

I fear that soon our voices as scientists will be silenced. Still perhaps we may speak quietly, as we are led to our imprisonment, "E pur si muove"...."the earth does move!"
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
163. jimijr
3:14 PM GMT on February 17, 2017
The average flow at Niagara Falls is 100,000 cfs, same as at Oroville, although half (50,000) is diverted unseen into the turbines.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
162. Patrap
3:13 PM GMT on February 17, 2017


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
161. fmbill
3:04 PM GMT on February 17, 2017
Quoting 160. Skyepony:

NASA's GEOS-5 goes pretty far south with that Gulf of Mexico storm..



NAVGEM does too.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
160. Skyepony (Mod)
2:55 PM GMT on February 17, 2017
NASA's GEOS-5 goes pretty far south with that Gulf of Mexico storm..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
159. ACSeattle
2:50 PM GMT on February 17, 2017
Quoting 110. HurricaneFan:


I agree with you. Too much political bickering here on both sides lately. Can't wait for hurricane season to see this blog back to normal.

Many people, if they don't like what's on the menu, don't eat at the restaurant. Just saying'....
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
158. Skyepony (Mod)
2:48 PM GMT on February 17, 2017
Wrote a blog.. There is a link to the petition trying to stop the soon to be injected nuclear waste below the SFL aquifer in there. Those deep wells have a history of failure along the East Coast of Florida, studies show it's a bad idea but FPL has won the fight to do it anyways. It's getting down to last ditch efforts on this issue.

Also crazy surge video from Dineo in there.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
157. fmbill
2:47 PM GMT on February 17, 2017
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
156. fmbill
2:45 PM GMT on February 17, 2017
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
155. fmbill
2:43 PM GMT on February 17, 2017
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
154. fmbill
2:41 PM GMT on February 17, 2017
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
153. DeepSeaRising
2:40 PM GMT on February 17, 2017
AGW could give us a show we've never seen before this year. For the second time in recorded history we could see El Nino two out of three years. Too early to tell with any certainty, but it could be another strong El-Nino. With SST's in the Atlantic where they're at we could see for the first time in recorded history an above average hurricane season for the W. Pacific, Central Pacific, E. Pacific, and Atlantic/Gulf/Caribbean during an El-Nino. Not to mention I believe our severe weather season this year will not be so light as we've had in recent years. This year could get very expensive and very dangerous very fast across the globe.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
152. GeoffreyWPB
2:39 PM GMT on February 17, 2017
From the Miami NWS Disco...

Out over the west, a mid-level disturbance will move across the
Rockies by Monday. By Tuesday, it cuts off over Texas and drops
into the Gulf of Mexico. As this disturbance develops and pushes
eastward on Wednesday into Thursday, it will cut across the
peninsula of Florida with the potential of showers and
thunderstorms. The concern for strong to severe storms cannot be
ruled out though great uncertainty remains with an event in the
extended forecast period. One thing to note has been the
consistency over the last few days of the GFS and ECMWF with this
system. The GFS has the cutoff low crossing around Tampa while the
ECMWF takes it between Key West and Cuba. This system bears
watching and expect the forecast to evolve over the coming days as
the potential event time approaches. Much can still change, but
the guidance is being consistent so far with the solution.

Link
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
151. isothunder67
2:27 PM GMT on February 17, 2017
NHC Tropical Cyclone Report is out for Nicole.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL152016_Nicole. pdf
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
150. weathermanwannabe
2:11 PM GMT on February 17, 2017
That low Yall are discussing seems to have the classic signature of a low trajectory gulf low that then swings up the Eastern Seaboard as a potential Nor'Easter so it could be a one-two punch for the South and then the NE............Most important things to look out for is how deep the low gets and whether the jet stream flow sets up over the Gulf as well as the low comes through.  Have to see how much the Pacific jet meanders once the current flow pattern over the Pacific gets to Mexico and the Texas region next week: it looks like a straight shot across Mexico, Texas, and the Gulf headed towards Florida at the moment/current trajectory.


 


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
149. fmbill
2:06 PM GMT on February 17, 2017
NWS Melbourne, Fl...Mon-Thu... Primary attention continues to focus on a potential GOMex
system
that mid range guidance has been hinting at for the past
several days. A very strong zonal jet spans the Pacific Ocean south
of the 40th parallel, with a 180KT core positioned about halfway
btwn the Aleutian and Hawaiian islands. The leading edge of the jet
is beginning to dig off the CA coast and is forecast to become
highly amplified over the next 24-36HRS.

Once it does, the stage will be set for an unsettled WX pattern for
central FL at midweek.
The kink in the mid/upr lvl wind field will
work its way into the Central Plains on Mon before its srn extension
cuts off over the GOMex Tue Night into Wed. Interaction with a deep
lyr anticyclone over the Mid Atlc will generate a brisk E/SE breeze
by daybreak Wed, bcmg S/SW on Thu as the storm core works its way
acrs the FL Peninsula.

While the fcst will be subject revision considering the system is in
the 6-7day timeframe, it should be noted that this unusually
southward track can be favorable for strong or possibly severe
storms with hail and and strong wind gusts in east central Florida.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
148. StormTrackerScott
2:04 PM GMT on February 17, 2017
Quoting 146. islander101010:

potential el nino puts a wrench in everyones 2017 hurricane forecast. it does not reduce the danger.


No it doesn't at all as the sea surface pattern resembles last year with the warmest sea surface temps near the US. Could be another rough Hurricane Season actually for the US.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
147. nrtiwlnvragn
2:02 PM GMT on February 17, 2017
GFS2017 a little stronger with SE low next week




as compared to the current GFS



Then there is the UKMET dreaming of tropical

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 26.9N 79.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.02.2017 144 26.9N 79.7W 1003 31
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 197 - 147

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4Blog Index

Top of Page
Ad Blocker Enabled

Category 6™

About

Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather

JeffMasters's Recent Photos

Mountain wave clouds over Labrador
Mountain wave clouds over Labrador
Mountain wave clouds over Labrador
Labrador ice