Hurricane Earl--First Caribbean Hurricane Since Sandy of 2012--Hits Belize

Hurricane Earl--the first hurricane in the Caribbean since Hurricane Sandy of 2012--made landfall near Belize City, Belize as a Category 1 storm with 80 mph winds near 2 am EDT Thursday, August 4, 2016. Earl was the strongest hurricane to hit Belize since Hurricane Richard on October 23, 2010, which made landfall as a Category 2 hurricane with 100 mph winds. Earl's strongest winds observed at the Belize Airport were sustained at 34 mph, gusting to 58 mph, between 10 pm and midnight local time on Wednesday evening. However, data stopped transmitting at 3 am when the center of the storm reached the airport. A personal weather station on Ambergris Caye, which received a battering from a portion of Earl's northern eyewall, recorded sustained winds of 46 mph, with a wind gust of 69 mph at 10:45 pm local time Wednesday. The station lost power shortly thereafter. Damage is likely to be significant in Belize City.


Figure 1. Storm chaser Josh Morgerman of icyclone.com rode out Earl from Belize City, and took this photo of the storm surge inundating the city at 2 am local time on August 4, 2016. "Definitely the most-epic Cat 1 I've chased. A hurricane of consequence. Will be remembered by Belizeans," he commented on his Twitter feed.


Figure 2. Belize radar as seen at 11:15 pm EDT August 3, 2016, shortly before Hurricane Earl made landfall near Belize City. Check out this extended radar loop of Earl saved by Brian McNoldy.

Dangerous rains coming from Earl
Satellite loops and Belize radar on Thursday morning showed Earl was steadily weakening as it moved inland over the Yucatan Peninsula, with the heavy thunderstorm activity shrinking in areal coverage and intensity. Earl will continue moving on a mostly westward track at 10 - 15 mph over the next few days, and will likely dissipate by Sunday. Earl is not likely to emerge over the Gulf of Mexico far enough to undergo any significant regeneration.

Earl grew into a large hurricane on Wednesday, and was able to tap into the Eastern Pacific as an additional source of moisture. When hurricanes are able to tap into both the Atlantic and Pacific as moisture sources, very dangerous heavy rains that affect a large portion of Mexico and Central America usually result, and Earl's heavy rains are going to be a major concern for the region. With rainfall amounts in excess of 8" expected over a swath of northern Honduras, northern Guatemala, most of Belize, and a big chunk of southern Mexico, expect to see many reports of life-threatening flash floods and landslides.


Figure 3. Lightning lights up the interior of Tropical Storm Earl as seen by the Air Force Hurricane Hunters on August 2, 2016. Image credit: 1st Lt. Leesa Froelich, 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, Air Force Hurricane Hunters Facebook page.


Figure 4. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Thursday, August 11, 2016. Rainfall amounts in excess of three inches (orange colors) are expected along a stretch of the Gulf Coast from New Orleans, Louisiana to Tampa, Florida. Image credit: National Weather Service.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic
There are no other tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming five days. A broad surface low pressure system is forecast to develop near the coast of Alabama early next week, and the counter-clockwise flow of air around this low will bring a moist flow of air over the coast from Alabama to Tampa, resulting in heavy rains. In their 00Z Thursday runs, about 20% of the members of both the European and GFS model ensemble forecasts predicted that this low could develop into a tropical depression sometime Monday through Wednesday. Regardless of development, coastal regions from New Orleans to Tampa can expect heavy rains exceeding three inches next week, as highlighted in the latest precipitation forecast from NOAA (Figure 4.)

Ivette active in the Eastern Pacific
The Eastern Pacific continues to be active, with Tropical Storm Ivette gathering strength in the Pacific waters south of the Mexican coast. Ivette will be moving away from the Mexican coast on a west to west-northwest track, and is expected to peak as a Category 1 hurricane on Sunday before cooler waters and less favorable atmospheric conditions result in weakening. Ivette will likely die out well before reaching Hawaii.

There is one more area of concern in the Eastern Pacific: the possible arrival of the remnants of Hurricane Earl early next week. Earl will cease to exist as a named storm during its long traverse of Mexico during the coming weekend, but if Earl's remnants manage to cross over Mexico and arrive over the waters off the coast of Puerto Vallarta with some spin still intact, regeneration into a tropical storm is possible. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the remnants of Earl 2-day and 5-day development odds of 0% and 60%, respectively. The 00Z Thursday run of the European model predicted that Earl's remnants would regenerate into a tropical storm that would bring heavy rains to the southern tip of Mexico's Baja Peninsula on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Jeff Masters