WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™
Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.Here comes Arlene!
Arlene is gone, leaving behind little in the way of damage, no deaths or injuries, and some beneficial rainfall to areas north of the landafall point that needed it. Overall, I thought the NHC did a nice job forecasting and not overhyping the storm, and the media definitiely overhyped the storm. It's best not to get too excited about June tropical storms! A few rainfall totals from Arlene:
Additionally a cooperative observer near Royal Palm Beach FL
reported 6.8 inches of rain between 7 am June 9 and 7 am CDT June11.
Check out the regional radar landfall loop for Arlene.
Dr. Jeff Masters
Blog Entry for Saturday, June 11
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Arlene is finally starting to resemble a hurricane, with a well-defined eye developing, and deep convection starting to wrap around the eye on the north and west sides. There is still a lot of dry air surrounding the storm, though, and that has prevented Arlene from becoming a hurricane. Dry air is frequently the nemesis of June tropical storms, since in June the jet stream is still far enough south that there is plenty of dry continental air being pulled south over the Gulf of Mexico by mid-latitude low pressure systems.
Arlene will likely hit land before much intensification can occur, so the residents of Alabama and Florida will dodge this blow for the most part. It's amazing how close the track of Arlene is to Hurricane Ivan's track!
Looking ahead to the next few days, strong winds over the Caribbean should keep the tropical wave in the eastern part from developing into anything until perhaps Monday or Tuesday, when the winds will relax and potentially allow a new tropical depression to form. Let's put the odds of this happening at about 25%.
Blog Entry from Friday, June 10
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Arlene has been strengthening today, with maximum sustained winds at 5pm EDT of 65 mph. But again, the storm looks pretty unimpressive on satellite imagery, with an exposed center with deep convection just beginning to wrap around the center. The main weather is in a narrow band to the northeast of the center, and the central pressure is a very high 997 mb, only 6 mb lower than when the storm formed. Arlene still has a ways to go before it reaches hurricane status--75 mph winds and a well-defined eye--and not much time to get its act together before landfall Saturday. The Florida Panhandle will probably get some minor damage from the storm (less than $10 million), but Arlene may end up being more of a boon than a bane, since it will provide a substantial amount of rainfall to areas that need it. Tropical storms provide a important part of the rainfall the Southeast U.S. needs each year, and area agriculture would suffer greatly without the rains these storms provide.
Blog Entry from Thursday, June 9
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Well, we have the first tropical storm of the season, Arlene. As is typical for early-season June storms, Arlene is disorganized and pretty unimpressive looking, with its center devoid of deep convection and tropical storm force winds present only in one modest band northeast of the center. The prospects for the storm to attain hurricane strength appear dim. Upper level winds on the west side of the storm are a little too strong to allow the storm to build up a nice inner core--the winds are disrupting things before they have a chance to get started. Add to this the fact that the sea surface temperatures are still relatively cool, and the storm is only expected to remain over sea until Saturday morning, and you arrive at the conclusion that hurricane status is unlikely for Arlene.
Although the official NHC forecast takes the center of Arlene west of the Florida Panhandle, the Panhandle should take the worst of the storm, since most of the strong winds are in a band northeast of the center. Let's hope that Florida taking the brunt of this first storm of the season is not a portent of things to come--the 2004 hurricane season was quite enough for Florida!
Blog Entry from Wednesday, June 8
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Well, the disturbance in the Western Caribbean got its act together enough to become Tropical Depression One. Since the system is moving slowly, and has plenty of warm water and light vertical wind shear to contend with, it is likely to become Tropical Storm Arlene in the next 36 hours. The current NHC forecast brings the storm northward into the Gulf of Mexico, which as we can see by looking at the Historical Map, is typical for a June storm that forms in this location. The polar jet stream is still active this time of year, and creates many southward-extending troughs of low pressure that steer tropical cyclones northward.
It is interesting to note that the 5 tropical cyclones that formed in June in the Western Caribbean all hit the west coast of Florida. The current best guess NHC forecast takes the storm west of the Florida Panhandle, but includes Florida in its cone of probability, so Florida could be picking up where it left the 2004 hurricane season--in the bullseye.
Location Storm total
===============================================
Panama City FL 5.4
Naples FL 5.3
Fort Myers FL 4.8
Mobile al 4.5
Pace FL 4.4
Homestead FL 4.2
Columbus MS 4.2
West Kendall FL 3.4
Pensacola FL 3.4
Milton FL 3.3
Atmore al 3.3
Macdill AFB FL 3.3
Additionally a cooperative observer near Royal Palm Beach FL
reported 6.8 inches of rain between 7 am June 9 and 7 am CDT June11.
Check out the regional radar landfall loop for Arlene.
Dr. Jeff Masters
Blog Entry for Saturday, June 11
--------------------------------
Arlene is finally starting to resemble a hurricane, with a well-defined eye developing, and deep convection starting to wrap around the eye on the north and west sides. There is still a lot of dry air surrounding the storm, though, and that has prevented Arlene from becoming a hurricane. Dry air is frequently the nemesis of June tropical storms, since in June the jet stream is still far enough south that there is plenty of dry continental air being pulled south over the Gulf of Mexico by mid-latitude low pressure systems.
Arlene will likely hit land before much intensification can occur, so the residents of Alabama and Florida will dodge this blow for the most part. It's amazing how close the track of Arlene is to Hurricane Ivan's track!
Looking ahead to the next few days, strong winds over the Caribbean should keep the tropical wave in the eastern part from developing into anything until perhaps Monday or Tuesday, when the winds will relax and potentially allow a new tropical depression to form. Let's put the odds of this happening at about 25%.
Blog Entry from Friday, June 10
---------------------------------------------------------
Arlene has been strengthening today, with maximum sustained winds at 5pm EDT of 65 mph. But again, the storm looks pretty unimpressive on satellite imagery, with an exposed center with deep convection just beginning to wrap around the center. The main weather is in a narrow band to the northeast of the center, and the central pressure is a very high 997 mb, only 6 mb lower than when the storm formed. Arlene still has a ways to go before it reaches hurricane status--75 mph winds and a well-defined eye--and not much time to get its act together before landfall Saturday. The Florida Panhandle will probably get some minor damage from the storm (less than $10 million), but Arlene may end up being more of a boon than a bane, since it will provide a substantial amount of rainfall to areas that need it. Tropical storms provide a important part of the rainfall the Southeast U.S. needs each year, and area agriculture would suffer greatly without the rains these storms provide.
Blog Entry from Thursday, June 9
---------------------------------------------------------
Well, we have the first tropical storm of the season, Arlene. As is typical for early-season June storms, Arlene is disorganized and pretty unimpressive looking, with its center devoid of deep convection and tropical storm force winds present only in one modest band northeast of the center. The prospects for the storm to attain hurricane strength appear dim. Upper level winds on the west side of the storm are a little too strong to allow the storm to build up a nice inner core--the winds are disrupting things before they have a chance to get started. Add to this the fact that the sea surface temperatures are still relatively cool, and the storm is only expected to remain over sea until Saturday morning, and you arrive at the conclusion that hurricane status is unlikely for Arlene.
Although the official NHC forecast takes the center of Arlene west of the Florida Panhandle, the Panhandle should take the worst of the storm, since most of the strong winds are in a band northeast of the center. Let's hope that Florida taking the brunt of this first storm of the season is not a portent of things to come--the 2004 hurricane season was quite enough for Florida!
Blog Entry from Wednesday, June 8
------------------------------------------------------------
Well, the disturbance in the Western Caribbean got its act together enough to become Tropical Depression One. Since the system is moving slowly, and has plenty of warm water and light vertical wind shear to contend with, it is likely to become Tropical Storm Arlene in the next 36 hours. The current NHC forecast brings the storm northward into the Gulf of Mexico, which as we can see by looking at the Historical Map, is typical for a June storm that forms in this location. The polar jet stream is still active this time of year, and creates many southward-extending troughs of low pressure that steer tropical cyclones northward.
It is interesting to note that the 5 tropical cyclones that formed in June in the Western Caribbean all hit the west coast of Florida. The current best guess NHC forecast takes the storm west of the Florida Panhandle, but includes Florida in its cone of probability, so Florida could be picking up where it left the 2004 hurricane season--in the bullseye.
arlene
Stormy Surfing
Beach under water
TS Arlene 3 hrs Later
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