Great U.S. Drought of 2012 to Last Into Spring of 2013

Beneficial rains over portions of the Central U.S. during the past week put a slight dent in the nation's worst drought since 1954. According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, the amount of the contiguous U.S. in moderate to extreme drought declined last week to 59%, down from the 65% peak of September 25, 2012. However, the intense drought is likely to persist through the winter, and its already heavily impacting the Winter Wheat growing season, which began in October. NOAA's latest State of the Drought product advised that the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for the Primary Hard Red Winter Wheat area reached the lowest value since the 1950s in October. The persistent drought is also a major problem for Mississippi River navigation. According to a November 17 AP story, the Mississippi is so low that if it drops another five feet, barge traffic may shut down from St. Louis to the confluence of the Ohio River at Cairo, IL. The Army Corps of Engineers plans to lower the level of the Mississippi by 2 - 3 feet over the next few weeks, due to the need to conserve water in the upper Missouri River basin. The latest two-week forecast from the GFS model predicts very little in the way of precipitation over the nation's drought-stricken region over the next ten days, which is good for holiday travel, but will worsen the drought.



Figure 1. The latest seasonal drought outlook from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center calls for drought conditions to persist across most of the nation's drought areas through the winter of 2012 - 2013.


Figure 2. Amount of precipitation needed to bust drought conditions over the U.S., according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. Southeastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas need the most rain, at least 12 - 15".

Long-term drought outlook
NOAA's Climate Prediction Center predicts that neutral El Niño conditions will prevail this winter, and has cancelled their El Niño watch. The expected neutral El Niño conditions have prompted the Climate Prediction Center to forecast equal chances of wetter or drier than average conditions across the heart of the drought region during the coming winter. In general, droughts are more likely in the Central U.S. when warmer than average ocean temperatures prevail in the tropical Atlantic, and cooler than average ocean temperatures are present in the tropical Eastern Pacific (La Niña-like conditions.) Currently, we do have warmer than average ocean temperatures in the tropical Atlantic, but also in the equatorial tropical Pacific (0.5°C above average as of November 19), so this is a lower-risk scenario for Central U.S. drought than we had during the winter of 2011 - 2012. However, considering that most of the nation's drought regions need 6 - 15" of precipitation to pull them out of drought, the Great Drought of 2012 is likely to linger into the spring of 2013.


If you missed it, Sunday night's showing of renowned documentary film maker Ken Burns' new film, "The Dust Bowl" was a fascinating look back at America's greatest drought. I was most struck by the accounts of the great dust storms that swept through the Plains, which grew in frequency and ferocity though the mid-1930s. Part one closed with a song by folk singer Woody Guthrie singing "So Long, It's Been Good to Know You." Guthrie lived through the great dust storms of the Dust Bowl, when the dust storms grew so violent and the skies so black that people thought the end of the world was at hand. Part two of "The Dust Bowl", "Reaping the Whirlwind", shows tonight (Monday night), November 19, from 8 - 10 pm. It opens with Woody Guthrie singing "The Great Dust Storm", about the notorious "Black Sunday" dust storm of April 14, 1935--America's worst dust storm in recorded history.

Lyrics of Woody Guthrie's, "So Long, It's Been Good to Know You"
I've sung this song, but I'll sing it again,

Of the place that I lived on the wild windy plains,

In the month called April, county called Gray,

And here's what all of the people there say:

CHORUS: So long, it's been good to know yuh;

So long, it's been good to know yuh;

So long, it's been good to know yuh.

This dusty old dust is a-gettin' my home,

And I got to be driftin' along.

A dust storm hit, an' it hit like thunder;

It dusted us over, an' it covered us under;

Blocked out the traffic an' blocked out the sun,

Straight for home all the people did run,
Singin':

CHORUS

We talked of the end of the world, and then

We'd sing a song an' then sing it again.

We'd sit for an hour an' not say a word,

And then these words would be heard:

CHORUS

Sweethearts sat in the dark and sparked,

They hugged and kissed in that dusty old dark.

They sighed and cried, hugged and kissed,

Instead of marriage, they talked like this:

"Honey..."

CHORUS

Now, the telephone rang, an' it jumped off the wall,

That was the preacher, a-makin' his call.

He said, "Kind friend, this may the end;

An' you got your last chance of salvation of sin!"

The churches was jammed, and the churches was packed,

An' that dusty old dust storm blowed so black.

Preacher could not read a word of his text,

An' he folded his specs, an' he took up collection,

Said:

So long, it's been good to know yuh;

So long, it's been good to know yuh;

So long, it's been good to know yuh.

This dusty old dust is a-gettin' my home,
And I got to be driftin' along.


Video 1. Woody Guthrie wrote several songs about the Dust Bowl. Here is a version of his "Dust Bowl Blues", illustrated by some remarkable video of Dust Bowl scenes from the 1930s.

Links:
My post on Lessons from 2012: Droughts, not Hurricanes, are the Greater Danger discussed how drought is our greatest threat from climate change.

Ricky Rood blogs about the Dust Bowl

Jeff Masters