WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™
Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.Edouard Dying; Fung-Wong Floods Manila
The Atlantic's strongest and longest-lived named storm of 2014, Edouard, is near the end of its life. Passage over waters cooler than 23°C (73°F) have resulted in the loss of all of Edouard's heavy thunderstorms, and satellite images show that Edouard is just a swirl of low clouds. Edouard will likely be declared dead by Saturday morning.
Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Edouard.
African tropical wave 95L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) that emerged from the coast of Africa on Wednesday night is being given lukewarm support for development by two of our three reliable tropical cyclone genesis models. Satellite loops show 95L has a moderate degree of spin, but its heavy thunderstorm activity is sparse and disorganized. The wave is under light wind shear and over warm waters of 28°C (82°F), conditions that favor development. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 20% and 30%, respectively. This wave is expected to move northwest near or over the Cape Verdes Islands by Sunday. Once it is northwest of the islands early next week, 95L will encounter drier air, making further development difficult. If 95L does develop, I doubt it would affect any land areas besides the Cape Verde Islands.
Figure 2. MODIS true-color image of Invest 95L off the coast of Africa, at approximately 8 am EDT September 19, 2014. Image credit: NASA.
Odile's rains flooding New Mexico and Texas
Moisture left over from Hurricane Odile continues to slosh over the Southwest U.S., where widespread areas of 2 - 4" of rain have fallen. The heaviest rains were over Southeast New Mexico near the Texas border, where a few areas of 6" fell in a 12-hour period ending Friday morning, causing flooded roads and a number of high-water rescues. Additional rains of 1 - 3" are possible in this area through Saturday morning.
Figure 3. Observed precipitation for the 4-day period ending Friday, September 19, 2014. The remnants of Hurricane Odile dumped a large area of 2 - 4 " of rain over the Southwest U.S. Image credit: National Weather Service.
Tropical Storm Polo brushing Southwest Mexico
Sporadic heavy rains continue to fall along the Pacific coast of Southwest Mexico as Tropical Storm Polo heads to the northwest, parallel to shore. The models are in good agreement that the core of Polo will stay offshore of both Southwest Mexico and the Baja Peninsula, but Polo's heavy rains of 2 - 4" along the coast of Southwest Mexico still represent a flooding threat. The 5 am EDT Friday Wind Probability Forecast from NHC gave Cabo San Lucas on the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula a 25% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds from Polo, and a 0% chance of hurricane-force winds. Satellite loops show that Polo is experiencing wind shear that is keeping heavy thunderstorms from developing on its northeast flank.
Figure 4. Tropical Storm Polo as seen by MODIS at 4:35 pm EDT Thursday September 18, 2014. At the time, Polo had top winds of 70 mph. Wind shear was keeping heavy thunderstorms from developing on its northeast flank. Image credit: NASA.
Tropical Storm Fung-Wong floods Manila
In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Fung-Wong brushed the northern end of the Philippines' Luzon Island on Friday morning with sustained winds of 45 mph. Monsoon rains intensified by Fung-Wong dumped 10.6" (268 mm) of rain overnight on the capital of the Philippines, Manila, causing widespread flooding that killed one person and shut down the city. Fung-wong has grown disorganized by its passage over Luzon, and is not expected to become a typhoon when it heads north and affects China this weekend.
Figure 5. Residents are rescued by police and rescue volunteers after continued monsoon rains enhanced by tropical storm Fung-Wong inundated parts of Marikina on September 19, 2014 in Manila, Philippines. Thousands were forcibly evacuated from their homes after heavy rains caused flooding in major parts of the metropolis, shutting down schools and government offices. (Photo by Dondi Tawatao/Getty Images)
Jeff Masters
Figure 1. Latest satellite image of Edouard.
African tropical wave 95L off the coast of Africa
A tropical wave (Invest 95L) that emerged from the coast of Africa on Wednesday night is being given lukewarm support for development by two of our three reliable tropical cyclone genesis models. Satellite loops show 95L has a moderate degree of spin, but its heavy thunderstorm activity is sparse and disorganized. The wave is under light wind shear and over warm waters of 28°C (82°F), conditions that favor development. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 20% and 30%, respectively. This wave is expected to move northwest near or over the Cape Verdes Islands by Sunday. Once it is northwest of the islands early next week, 95L will encounter drier air, making further development difficult. If 95L does develop, I doubt it would affect any land areas besides the Cape Verde Islands.
Figure 2. MODIS true-color image of Invest 95L off the coast of Africa, at approximately 8 am EDT September 19, 2014. Image credit: NASA.
Odile's rains flooding New Mexico and Texas
Moisture left over from Hurricane Odile continues to slosh over the Southwest U.S., where widespread areas of 2 - 4" of rain have fallen. The heaviest rains were over Southeast New Mexico near the Texas border, where a few areas of 6" fell in a 12-hour period ending Friday morning, causing flooded roads and a number of high-water rescues. Additional rains of 1 - 3" are possible in this area through Saturday morning.
Figure 3. Observed precipitation for the 4-day period ending Friday, September 19, 2014. The remnants of Hurricane Odile dumped a large area of 2 - 4 " of rain over the Southwest U.S. Image credit: National Weather Service.
Tropical Storm Polo brushing Southwest Mexico
Sporadic heavy rains continue to fall along the Pacific coast of Southwest Mexico as Tropical Storm Polo heads to the northwest, parallel to shore. The models are in good agreement that the core of Polo will stay offshore of both Southwest Mexico and the Baja Peninsula, but Polo's heavy rains of 2 - 4" along the coast of Southwest Mexico still represent a flooding threat. The 5 am EDT Friday Wind Probability Forecast from NHC gave Cabo San Lucas on the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula a 25% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds from Polo, and a 0% chance of hurricane-force winds. Satellite loops show that Polo is experiencing wind shear that is keeping heavy thunderstorms from developing on its northeast flank.
Figure 4. Tropical Storm Polo as seen by MODIS at 4:35 pm EDT Thursday September 18, 2014. At the time, Polo had top winds of 70 mph. Wind shear was keeping heavy thunderstorms from developing on its northeast flank. Image credit: NASA.
Tropical Storm Fung-Wong floods Manila
In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Fung-Wong brushed the northern end of the Philippines' Luzon Island on Friday morning with sustained winds of 45 mph. Monsoon rains intensified by Fung-Wong dumped 10.6" (268 mm) of rain overnight on the capital of the Philippines, Manila, causing widespread flooding that killed one person and shut down the city. Fung-wong has grown disorganized by its passage over Luzon, and is not expected to become a typhoon when it heads north and affects China this weekend.
Figure 5. Residents are rescued by police and rescue volunteers after continued monsoon rains enhanced by tropical storm Fung-Wong inundated parts of Marikina on September 19, 2014 in Manila, Philippines. Thousands were forcibly evacuated from their homes after heavy rains caused flooding in major parts of the metropolis, shutting down schools and government offices. (Photo by Dondi Tawatao/Getty Images)
Jeff Masters
The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.