Disturbance 98L forms north of the southern Bahamas

A concentrated area of thunderstorms has developed just north of the southern Bahamas Islands this morning, in association with a broad surface trough of low pressure. The NHC labeled this disturbance "98L" this morning, and the preliminary computer model tracks have the system moving slowly to the north-northeast. An upper-level low pressure system to 98L's northeast is bringing about 15 knots of wind shear over the disturbance. The GFS model predicts that the upper low will move north-northeast in tandem with the disturbance, keeping low enough shear over it that a tropical depression could form. The other reliable models do not develop 98L. At present, it appears that Bermuda is the only place that needs to concern itself with 98L. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the storm Sunday afternoon.


Figure 1. Preliminary model tracks for 98L.

Jeff Masters