Andrea slowly weakening

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:44 PM GMT on May 10, 2007

Subtropical Storm Andrea has weakened this morning, and currently poses little threat to land--other than some minor beach erosion along the Georgia and northern Florida coasts. Storm tides are running about one foot above normal in these areas, with 2-4 foot surf. Andrea's satellite presentation shows a classic example of a weak storm experiencing significant wind shear. Most of the heavy thunderstorm activity is displaced to the east side of the storm, pushed there by strong upper level winds from the northwest and west. Wind shear is about 20 knots, and is expected to remain this high for another day, then decrease by Saturday. The organization of the spiral bands of rainfall visible on the Jacksonville, FL long range radar is poor. The top winds found by the Hurricane Hunters this morning at their flight level of 1000 feet were 41 mph, as of 9:20am EDT. The central pressure had risen to 1003 mb, according to their 9:20am center fix, and Andrea may get downgraded to a tropical depression later today. The GFS model is calling for Andrea to dissipate by Saturday, and given the marginal Sea Surface Temperatures (24-25 C), significant dry air surrounding the system, and strong wind shear, NHC is also calling for dissipation. However, there is a good possibility that Andrea could hang on and eventually get swept out to sea, as the GFDL model is calling for. In this scenario, Andrea could intensify early next week and threaten Bermuda as a strong subtropical storm.


Figure 1. Forecast smoke levels at 11am EDT Thursday, May 10 from NOAA's air quality computer model. Note the ring of smoke encircling Jacksonville, due to the counterclockwise flow of air around Andrea. Image credit: NOAA.


Figure 2. Observed levels of fine particulate matter pollution (PM2.5) over Florida. Orange circles mark cities where the air is "Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups", and people with heart or lung disease, older adults, and children should reduce prolonged or heavy exertion in these areas. Image credit: EPA.

Andrea and the Florida/Georgia fires
The counter-clockwise circulation of air around Andrea's center of low pressure can be seen in the forecast movement of smoke from the fires burning in northern Florida and Southeastern Georgia (Figure 1). The Hurricane Hunters reported that dense smoke was obscuring visibility over the ocean waters near Jacksonville during their mission into Andrea this morning--the first time I've ever seen that observation during a hurricane hunter mission. This smoke is expected to form a ring encircling Jacksonville, and an air pollution alert for unhealthy levels of particulate matter pollution has been posted today for that city. Particulate matter pollution advisories have also been posted along a swath from Orlando to Miami. People with heart or lung disease, older adults, and children should reduce prolonged or heavy exertion in these areas. A map of current particulate matter pollution levels is posted in Figure 2. Wunderblogger aquak9 has a Floriga/Georgia fire blog for those interested in conversing about the fires.

Rainfall from Andrea has been less than 0.3 inches across the fires zones, which is not enough to douse them. Andrea is a very dry storm; peak rainfall rates are only about 0.25 inches per hour, in the storm's southeastern rainbands. These rainbands are not expected to hit the coast in the next two days. Maximum total rainfall observed by the Jacksonville radar has been less than 1.5 inches.

I'll have an update Friday morning, unless some significant change in Andrea occurs today. The 8am QuikSCAT pass missed Andrea; the next pass is at about 8pm. The next Hurricane Hunter mission is not until 8am Friday.

Jeff Masters

I CAN MAKE IT! (dab)
I CAN MAKE IT! ...no I can't.
I CAN MAKE IT!
Smokey Florida Sunrise (Peacefulbon)
Southwest Florida is being affected by the fires burning on the Georgia/Florida border, some 300 miles away. The smoke plume reduced visability to less than half a mile yesterday, and this morning resulted in this hazy sun at 8 a.m.
Smokey Florida Sunrise

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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246. weatherboykris
9:08 PM GMT on May 10, 2007
Posted By: Thunderstorm2 at 9:07 PM GMT on May 10, 2007.

If this keeps up Aaron will lockdown WU


Yeah,I didn't mean to start a big argument.I was just telling mike to knock it off.
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245. Baybuddy
9:09 PM GMT on May 10, 2007
She will be using it around town here in Daphne. Lots of big shady oak trees.
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244. DocBen
9:08 PM GMT on May 10, 2007
Is that blob in the EPAC developing any circulation? Seems to have some real substance to it.
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243. K8eCane
9:08 PM GMT on May 10, 2007
hey
crazier things have happened than andrea crankin up again
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242. Bamatracker
9:07 PM GMT on May 10, 2007
andrea doesnt even look like a depression on the water vapor.
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241. StoryOfTheCane
9:06 PM GMT on May 10, 2007
Posted By: Baybuddy at 9:05 PM GMT on May 10, 2007.
I just bought my wife a shiny new vespa scooter. I pick it up in Florida tomorrow.



Hope you have plenty of sunblock!!! skin cancer is a terrible problem in Florida, and convertibles, motorcycles and untinted windows play a huge role in the onset.
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240. Baybuddy
9:07 PM GMT on May 10, 2007
I'll wait and see. I want to see a corpse before I write her off.
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239. skibrian95
9:07 PM GMT on May 10, 2007
RL3AO

YES

I bet they were WINTERstorm warnings...LOL
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238. weatherboykris
9:08 PM GMT on May 10, 2007
back
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237. weatherblog
9:05 PM GMT on May 10, 2007
Looking very weak. Looks like Andrea won't make land afterall. :(...we need rain!!lol

By the way come check out my blogs.
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236. Thunderstorm2
5:06 PM EDT on May 10, 2007
If this keeps up Aaron will lockdown WU
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235. Skyepony (Mod)
9:06 PM GMT on May 10, 2007
Shear dropped to ~15..
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234. Bamatracker
9:05 PM GMT on May 10, 2007
well i'll say she is almost dead..but i'm getting my defibrillator out so maybe we can bring Andrea back to life!!!
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233. RL3AO
4:05 PM CDT on May 10, 2007
Off topic, but does anyone remember the last time that northern Idaho and western Montana were under a risk of severe weather. I dont remember.
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232. K8eCane
9:05 PM GMT on May 10, 2007
skibrian
yes andrea looks like she has a few clouds over on the east side
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231. Baybuddy
9:05 PM GMT on May 10, 2007
S.J.ROCKS!!!
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230. Baybuddy
9:03 PM GMT on May 10, 2007
I just bought my wife a shiny new vespa scooter. I pick it up in Florida tomorrow.
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229. StoryOfTheCane
9:03 PM GMT on May 10, 2007
The Glorified Beast


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228. scCane
8:58 PM GMT on May 10, 2007
Yeah posting over 20 posts in less than 15 mins about 1 poster and everyone that disagrees with you really makes "him" look arrogant. But anyway ignorance is bliss I think I will follow my own advice so I dont become the very thing you are.
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227. skibrian95
9:03 PM GMT on May 10, 2007
bamatracker....

I am TRYING to start a fight on whether Andrea is strengthening or not...despite the NHC statement.

any takers?
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226. K8eCane
9:00 PM GMT on May 10, 2007
i have never known stormjunkie to be arrogant or to act like a know it all either
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225. Bamatracker
9:02 PM GMT on May 10, 2007
woohoo!!! i want to argue!!! wait...what are we arguing about?
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224. skibrian95
9:01 PM GMT on May 10, 2007
I have a better idea.

Now that SOTC has refused to drop it...let us all ignore any further posts unrelated to the weather.

that will surely stop it
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223. Baybuddy
8:57 PM GMT on May 10, 2007
For a small fee I will take the blame for everyone. It is a small price to pay for peace.... Or we could all blame Paris Hilton.
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221. skibrian95
8:59 PM GMT on May 10, 2007
so...does anyone think andrea looks stronger? is the eastern blow up a new lease on life, or typical gulf stream afternoon activity???
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217. skibrian95
8:55 PM GMT on May 10, 2007
SOTC --
Don't misunderstand sarcasm and passion for a topic with arrogance...i don't know well enough, but I can at least say that Storm Junkie has won my respect in previous seasons and I don't remember (not to say he hasn't) but i don't remember him being anything other than passionate.

and hey...at the end of the day, this is all electronic, which should give us all some pretty thick skin.
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215. Thunderstorm2
4:56 PM EDT on May 10, 2007
Can someone please fill me in on what is going on?
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213. scCane
8:50 PM GMT on May 10, 2007
Cane stop trying to make yourself look like the "innocent" one youve been posting 1 post every second belive it or not you dont look any smarter when you post alot aka spaming. stop attacking everyone that you feel are trying to insult you. be the better man by ignoring not by spaming the topic up.
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211. skibrian95
8:53 PM GMT on May 10, 2007
are they all weather underground blogs...but have a following of their own? i have only lurked around master's site.
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210. Thunderstorm2
4:53 PM EDT on May 10, 2007
Advisory already been posted on the blog.
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208. skibrian95
8:51 PM GMT on May 10, 2007
man Andrea's kicking up on the east side again...typical I've been told for there to be afternoon blow ups over the Gulf Stream...maybe that is what it is...my hope is it starts to wrap around and add some more oompf to these light showers that have been passing by.
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207. MZT
8:51 PM GMT on May 10, 2007
WeatherGuy03, Hurricane23, TurtleHurricane, MichaelSTL's blogs. You know, the elitist know-it-alls. LOL
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206. skibrian95
8:51 PM GMT on May 10, 2007
where do you go MZT????
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205. skibrian95
8:49 PM GMT on May 10, 2007
SOTC--

That's great...we'll all know it when we see it...don't need to point it out. Apparently there is a ref that will kick the bad ones out of the game anyway...so let's have fun.

if I see it in July...I'll say this same thing again to anyone with their knickers in a twist.
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204. quakeman55
8:49 PM GMT on May 10, 2007
Where has ol' ST been anyway? I could use another one of his amusing "predictions" right now...that's some good comedy.
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202. MZT
8:47 PM GMT on May 10, 2007
If this blog gets too heated, there are always others. I don't participate much here when it starts getting to be 25+ pages of DOOM! DOOM! at the height of the season.
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200. skibrian95
8:47 PM GMT on May 10, 2007
what's it really matter??? let's just have fun...any praise or criticsm we get comes from total strangers that will have no further effect on our wider lives....so let the praise and critism be fun...and let ANDREA BRING THE RAIN!!!!!!
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199. Inyo
8:39 PM GMT on May 10, 2007
I just checked the latest ENSO weekly advisory posted last monday. there was SLIGHT cooling in the ENSO area since last week but overall, actual warming in the last month. I wouldn't get too excited about La Nina and even if it develops,by now it may be too late to affect the hurricane season. I personally think it will be 'ENSO Neutral' this summer with possible weak la nina for the winter (here in CA we don't want it.)
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198. lilmax
8:45 PM GMT on May 10, 2007
Andrea was a wimpy storm.
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197. skibrian95
8:45 PM GMT on May 10, 2007
it's kinda like bickering with an umpire in church league softball or yelling at the coach of a 10 year old's soccer team.

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196. skibrian95
8:41 PM GMT on May 10, 2007
i guess when i played college baseball, and now near the top levels of USA Rugby, I just don't see competition like everyone else. when there is a serious championship at stake or serious money on the line (in business maybe)...fine, be competitive...I'm all for it.

it just strikes me as insane here...fun as long as it's all tongue and cheek sure...but to get all riled up about it...sheesh
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Cat 6 lead authors: WU cofounder Dr. Jeff Masters (right), who flew w/NOAA Hurricane Hunters 1986-1990, & WU meteorologist Bob Henson, @bhensonweather