Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

More good news:

Japan raises spectre of Fukushima 'melt-through'

For the first time, Japanese authorities have suggested the situation at the Fukushima nuclear plant may have gone beyond a meltdown.

An official report, which Japan will submit to the UN's nuclear watchdog, says nuclear fuel in three reactors at Fukushima has possibly melted through the pressure vessels and accumulated in outer containment vessels.

Japan's Yomiuri Shimbun newspaper says this "melt-through" is far worse than a core meltdown, and is the worst possibility in a nuclear accident.

This is the first official admission that a "melt-through" may have occurred.

In the report, Japan also admits it was unprepared for the scale of the Fukushima disaster, which struck after a devastating earthquake and tsunami in March.

The report also acknowledges there was insufficient communication between the government and the plant's operator.

ABC News (Australia) Article...

Quoting KoritheMan:
THIS ENVIRONMENT IS RIPE
FOR INTENSIFICATION...PERHAPS EVEN OF THE RAPID VARIETY.

I like the way that's worded. ;-)

Kinda fiqured dat when the Roofs Blew off from the Hydrogen Gas KABOOM's and the er,,situation was said, to be contained was announced.

I think Adrian will hit cat 3, in the E-pac its a lot easier for early season storms to reach major hurricane status, and conditions are good for the next few days, they're prediction takes it to Cat 2 but I think the prediction shows Adrian as a Cat 1 for too long.

Bonus Nocturnal action tonight


Boomers outside..

Quoting all4hurricanes:
I think Adrian will hit cat 3, in the E-pac its a lot easier for early season storms to reach major hurricane status, and conditions are good for the next few days, they're prediction takes it to Cat 2 but I think the prediction shows Adrian as a Cat 1 for too long.

Satellite imagery shows the beginnings of an inner core. Quicker intensification than forecast is definitely a possibility.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
big yellow globe thats our sun and the positions numbers and type of solar flares

Been quite active~

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/warnings_timeline .html

The blast produced an M2-class solar flare, an S1-class radiation storm, and a massive CME. A recording of the blast from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory ranks as one of the most beautiful and dramatic movies of the SDO era: "spaceweather.com"

http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/

Quoting Patrap:
Bonus Nocturnal action tonight


Boomers outside..

Had some rain here in Prairieville, along with some lightning, but little else. I'll get my severe thunderstorm one of these days!

Quoting all4hurricanes:
I think Adrian will hit cat 3, in the E-pac its a lot easier for early season storms to reach major hurricane status, and conditions are good for the next few days, they're prediction takes it to Cat 2 but I think the prediction shows Adrian as a Cat 1 for too long.

Especially if it starts into a phase of rapid intensification.

Soon maybe...Kori

Quoting TomTaylor:
This is a tropics blog, if you'd like to discuss Global Warming or Climate Change, there are many eager debaters right here

That's a bit harsh...
Global Weather and Climate Change are intrinsically linked.

And the Author of this blog has often referred to the issue raised by the person you quoted.
It may annoy a couple people, but there are times that there is a quite healthy debate on Global Warming, right here.

Quoting all4hurricanes:
I think Adrian will hit cat 3, in the E-pac its a lot easier for early season storms to reach major hurricane status, and conditions are good for the next few days, they're prediction takes it to Cat 2 but I think the prediction shows Adrian as a Cat 1 for too long.

personally, I don't like calling peak intensity, because I think its too early. I always think there isnt much forecast skill predicting peak intensity this early in the game.

Nonetheless, I think it will reach hurricane status, but from there I really don't know how much more it will intensify. Could become a major...which would be amazing considering its early June

Quoting Patrap:
Kinda fiqured dat when the Roofs Blew off from the Hydrogen Gas KABOOM's and the er,,situation was said, to be contained was announced.

I think that what is being announced now, is not too surprising to those who thought about it...

Looks like Adrian may intensify very rapidly. We might have a hurricane by late tomorrow morning/early afternoon.

The continuation of the severe drought in South Florida this far into June has probably not happened in many many years. I have never seen blank radar screens over South Florida in June for this number of days. Certanly, one must hope for some type of tropical connection to break the drought.

SPACE WEATHER BREAKING

An unusual solar flare observed by a NASA space observatory on Tuesday could cause some disruptions to satellite communications and power on Earth over the next day or so, officials said.
The potent blast from the Sun unleashed a firestorm of radiation on a level not witnessed since 2006, and will likely lead to moderate geomagnetic storm activity by Wednesday, according to the National Weather Service.
"This one was rather dramatic," said Bill Murtagh, program coordinator at the NWS's Space Weather Prediction Center, describing the M-2 (medium-sized) solar flare that peaked at 1:41 am Eastern time in the United States, or 0541 GMT.
"We saw the initial flare occurring and it wasn't that big but then the eruption associated with it -- we got energy particle radiation flowing in and we got a big coronal mass injection," he said.
"You can see all the materials blasting up from the Sun so it is quite fantastic to look at."

http://beta.news.yahoo.com/unusual-solar-storm-co uld-disrupt-earth-communications-194814480.html

Quoting Ossqss:


Been quite active~

http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/alerts/warnings_timeline .html

The blast produced an M2-class solar flare, an S1-class radiation storm, and a massive CME. A recording of the blast from NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory ranks as one of the most beautiful and dramatic movies of the SDO era: "spaceweather.com"

http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/

Here's a video of today's amazing solar flare captured in different temperatures. Incredible:

If Japan had land frontiers with other countries, the real magnitud of that meltdown would had been exposed long ago. The localization of the accident with the Pacific to the east, also the fact that usually winds blow East taking long time for the fallout to reach other countries, diluted, favors the coverage given... If that accident would have been in the West, the situation with China would have been really serious...

Quoting pottery:

That's a bit harsh...
Global Weather and Climate Change are intrinsically linked.

And the Author of this blog has often referred to the issue raised by the person you quoted.
It may annoy a couple people, but there are times that there is a quite healthy debate on Global Warming, right here.

yeah you're right. But during hurricane season people get very easily annoyed by the gw debate.

And quite honestly, I can't blame them. Minor comments on the topic are fine, but when we get a full scale debate on the topic it gets ugly. Name calling and countless logical fallacies dominate true gw debates. Not to mention we have a blog purposely created for such debates. For these reasons, unless Jeff specifically makes a post on the topic or it is not hurricane season, I usually dislike seeing the topic debated on this blog.

Remember though, that's just my dos centavos, feel free to tell me to shut up...I ain't the blog police

Two things: Neapolitan, please change your background. it gets too dark to read towards the end - Please.
The next is wondering about the storms that spung up over the south-central region of Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana; I've heard an old-time Civil Defense director tell tales of low pressure forming over land and going back out to sea then developing into a stronger low usually bringing rain and winds to the gulf coast. I haven't found any instances of that happening but I believe this system is compact enough and strong enough to be carried back out... It's unusual for us to get storms of this strength from the east or southeast this time of year.

One of them thangs (sic) that gets my attention

When viewing those pictures of the solar flare, consider this: a full-fledged hurricane on earth would cover approximately three pixels.

Quoting portcharlotte:
The continuation of the severe drought in South Florida this far into June has probably not happened in many many years. I have never seen blank radar screens over South Florida in June for this number of days. Certanly, one must hope for some type of tropical connection to break the drought.

It's a Bad one all right.
Hope that it's not a trend.

The thing is, even if you get rainfalls in later June-july to make up the deficit, and even if this kind of drought never happens again, there are long-term after-effects with soil condition, vegetation stresses, and subtle changes to the eco-system that may not be evident for several seasons.

It's a Serious Situation.

does that mean the sun goona end?

There's a backdoor trof/vort now moving up gulf near the west side of FL..looks neat on satellite..kinda spinning up, except all my gulf only views/links aren't working. So haven't had a close look at it yet. Anybody got one that is?

Actually got a Trace of rain from it a few hours ago. Low level clouds flying in from the east. Had a tropical feel.

Quoting Hurrykane:
Trouble

Thats some quite huge and strong blobs about to exit Africa, seems a little low in terms of latitude.

Good evening. The blog is only showing 2/3 of the page on my computer. Anyone else experiencing this or is it just me? Thanks

Quoting TomTaylor:
yeah you're right. But during hurricane season people get very easily annoyed by the gw debate.

And quite honestly, I can't blame them. Minor comments on the topic are fine, but when we get a full scale debate on the topic it gets ugly. Name calling and countless logical fallacies dominate true gw debates. Not to mention we have a blog purposely created for such debates. For these reasons, unless Jeff specifically makes a post on the topic or it is not hurricane season, I usually dislike seeing the topic debated on this blog.

Remember though, that's just my dos centavos, feel free to tell me to shut up...I ain't the blog police

Yeah, I respect that.
And I agree. The debate is never a fruitful one. People tend to have strong views on both sides and it all gets too Quarrelsom.
Enough of that though. Tonight.

T.C.F.W.
01E/TS/A/CX
MARK
11.90N/101.13W

Quoting tropicfreak:


Thats some quite huge and strong blobs about to exit Africa, seems a little low in terms of latitude.

They look good, yes!
Maybe we will have something to look at tomorrow...
As they dry up LOL.

Quoting midgulfmom:
Good evening. The blog is only showing 2/3 of the page on my computer. Anyone else experiencing this or is it just me? Thanks

Fine here.

Thanks Pottery...Will look around for a "button" of some sort to try..hahaha...geesh, I hate showing my computer lameness...enjoy your commentaries. :)

Quoting RukusBoondocks:
does that mean the sun goona end?

No, but keep an eye on it~! :)

A Carrington event would not be good in today's, or tomorrows world for sure ~~~

Quoting midgulfmom:
Good evening. The blog is only showing 2/3 of the page on my computer. Anyone else experiencing this or is it just me? Thanks

all is good on my computer. are you using Internet Explorer by any chance?

Tom Taylor: YES! tried to quote you but I couldn't. What's up? Do you know? Was fiddling with some stuff but no luck.

Wild Winds: Changes in Weather Patterns Creating More Severe Storms

Tornado. A Kansas State University climate expert attributes the increase in the number and severity of tornadoes and severe storms in 2011 to a change in weather patterns. (Credit: © Chris White / Fotolia)

ScienceDaily (June 7, 2011) — A Kansas State University climate expert attributes the increase in the number and severity of tornadoes and severe storms in 2011 to a change in weather patterns.

John Harrington Jr., professor of geography, is a synoptic climatologist who examines the factors behind distinctive weather events. He credits the increased tornado production this year to jet stream patterns in the upper atmosphere. The patterns have created synoptic events such as the April tornado outbreak in Alabama and recent tornado in Joplin, Mo. While these events are not unprecedented, they are significant, he said.

"To put them in all in one year, that's what has people talking about this stuff," Harrington said. "The fact that this is happening all in one year and in a relatively short time frame is unusual."..................

Link

Max Mayfield said this will probably be the latest start to the rainy season ever in South Florida.
Link

Quoting midgulfmom:
Tom Taylor: YES! tried to quote you but I couldn't. What's up? Do you know? Was fiddling with some stuff but no luck.

I don't know what the problem is exactly, but it seems like most of the people who have trouble viewing the blog are those using Internet Explorer.

So I'd recommend using Mozilla Firefox or Google Chrome instead of Internet Explorer.

Firefox and Chrome are also faster and safer relative to Internet Explorer, from what I've heard.

T.C.F.W.
01E/TS/A/CX
MARK
11.90N/101.13W

Wll try thanks Tom. :)

possible development of an eyewall???

Quoting pottery:

It's a Bad one all right.
Hope that it's not a trend.

The thing is, even if you get rainfalls in later June-july to make up the deficit, and even if this kind of drought never happens again, there are long-term after-effects with soil condition, vegetation stresses, and subtle changes to the eco-system that may not be evident for several seasons.

It's a Serious Situation.

It is a serious situation, but keep in mind, nature is great at recovering. The biggest issue I think, is that since Florida is normally a wet climate, once we break out of this dry weather, it could bounch back to the other extreme, well above normal amounts of rain and thunderstorms leading to severe weather and flooding. It seems that the climate everywhere is wacked, you are often either in a serious drought, or way too much rain...

Quoting midgulfmom:
Wll try thanks Tom. :)

np, good luck

Thanks Pat I see it's working now..see what I's saying. Look at that spining up the west side of FL.

Recon is out there right now, AF306. They flew out there early afternoon. Found a little shear around 700mb. Flew back then flew out there again with a takeoff time around 2300Z. Shear has dropped considerably.

Sumthings up skye,,as they switching the beam down a tad.


And there be a spin,ahoy...

Quoting Skyepony:
Thanks Pat I see it's working now..see what I's saying. Look at that spining up the west side of FL.

Recon is out there right now, AF306. They flew out there early afternoon. Found a little shear around 700mb. Flew back then flew out there again with a takeoff time around 2300Z. Shear has dropped considerably.

Its an upper low developing with cold air aloft. The problem is we still have dry mid level air over Florida. But if we can get that deep tropical moisture to surge north, that combined with the upper low will lead to very strong thunderstorms and typical summertime torrential rains.

Product: Air Force Temp Drop (Dropsonde) Message (UZNT13 KNHC)
Transmitted: 8th day of the month at 00:56Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Mission: Non-Tasked Mission, possibly not tropical (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Identifier: 110607230851306 (2 digit year/2 digit month/2 digit day/6 digit mission start time/Last 3 digits of aircraft tail number)
Date Mission Started: June 7th in '11
Time Mission Started: 23:08:51Z
Observation Number: 04

Part A...

Date: Near the closest hour of 1Z on the 8th day of the month
Highest Mandatory Level For Which Wind Was Reported: 400mb
Coordinates: 28.3N 86.8W (View map)
Location: 147 miles (236 km) to the SSW (208°) from Panama City, FL, USA.
Marsden Square: 081 (About)

Level Geo. Height Air Temp. Dew Point Wind Direction Wind Speed
1011mb (29.85 inHg) Sea Level (Surface) 28.2°C (82.8°F) 23.5°C (74.3°F) 110° (from the ESE) 10 knots (12 mph)
1000mb 100m (328 ft) 27.4°C (81.3°F) 23.4°C (74.1°F) 110° (from the ESE) 9 knots (10 mph)
925mb 786m (2,579 ft) 23.2°C (73.8°F) Approximately 14°C (57°F) 85° (from the E) 6 knots (7 mph)
850mb 1,518m (4,980 ft) 18.0°C (64.4°F) Approximately 12°C (54°F) 105° (from the ESE) 14 knots (16 mph)
700mb 3,152m (10,341 ft) 8.2°C (46.8°F) Approximately 0°C (32°F) 110° (from the ESE) 10 knots (12 mph)
500mb 5,840m (19,160 ft) -9.5°C (14.9°F) Approximately -22°C (-8°F) 120° (from the ESE) 7 knots (8 mph)
400mb 7,520m (24,672 ft) -20.5°C (-4.9°F) -25.4°C (-13.7°F) 145° (from the SE) 18 knots (21 mph)

Information About Radiosonde:
- Launch Time: 0:31Z
- About Sonde: A descending radiosonde tracked automatically by satellite navigation with no solar or infrared correction.


Well I suppose they maybe home by now..