The ARkStorm: California's coming great deluge

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:04 PM GMT on January 28, 2011

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For thirty days and thirty nights the rain fell in unending torrents. By the end of the biblical deluge, rivers of water ten feet deep flowed through the streets of Sacramento, and an astounding 29.28 inches of rain had fallen on San Francisco. According to wunderground's weather historian, Christopher C. Burt, in the Sierras, the moist flow of air from Hawaii--often called an "atmospheric river" or the "Pineapple Express"--hit the steeply sloping mountainsides and rose upwards. The air expanded and cooled, causing truly prodigious rains, with the mining town of Sonora receiving 8.5 feet of rain over a 2-month period. The resulting floods inundated California's Central Valley with a lake 300 miles long and 20 miles wide.

The above event occurred in January 1862, and similar extreme rain events have deluged in California seven times in the past 2,000 years--about once every 300 years. Great storms like the flood of 1862 will happen again. If the planet continues to warm, as expected, the odds of such an event will at least double by 2100, due to the extra moisture increased evaporation from the oceans will add to the air. A group of scientists, emergency managers, and policy makers gathered in Sacramento, California earlier this month to discuss how the state might respond to a repeat of the 1862 rain event--the ARkStorm Scenario. The "AR" stands for "Atmospheric River", the "k" for 1,000 (like a 1-in-1000 year event), and of course "ARkStorm" is meant to summon visions of biblical-scale deluge, similar to the great flood of 1862. The team's final report envisions the most expensive disaster in world history, with direct damages and loss of economic activity amounting to $725 billion.

"Atmospheric Rivers" was a term coined in the 1990s to describe plumes of moisture that ride up out of the subtropics into the mid-latitudes along the axis of a cold front. Traditional water vapor satellite imagery does not show these plumes very well, and it was only when microwave satellite imagery from polar orbiting satellites became available in the late 1990s that the full importance of these Atmospheric Rivers came to be revealed. Atmospheric Rivers account for a significant portion of California's cold season rainfall and snowfall, and an entire session was devoted to them at the December 2010 American Geophysical Union (AGU) meeting in San Francisco, the world's largest Earth Science meeting.


Figure 1. The total amount of rainfall one could get if all the moisture in the air were condensed and fell out as rain is called the Total Precipitable Water (TPW). Here, TPW values from microwave satellite measurements are plotted, and show a plume of very moist air connecting the subtropics near Hawaii with Southern California. TPW vales in excess of 20 mm (about 0.8 inches, blue and warmer colors) are "Atmospheric Rivers", and are often associated with heavy rainfall events capable of causing flooding. This Atmospheric River occurred on December 21, 2010, and brought very heavy flooding rains to Southern California. Image credit: University of Wisconsin CIMSS.

California's Delta Region levees at high risk of failure
Much of Central California's water supply and agricultural areas are protected by an antiquated and poorly maintained set of levees along the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers that are in serious danger of failure during an extreme flood or major earthquake. The 1,600 miles of levees protect 500,000 people, 2 million acres of farmland, and structures worth $47 billion. Of particular concern is the delta at the confluence of California's Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers, about 80 miles inland from San Francisco Bay. The Delta Region receives runoff from more than 40% of California, and is the hub of California's water supply system, supplying water to 25 million people and 3 million acres of farmland. Key transportation and communication lines cross the region. The Delta Region is home to dozens of islands with highly productive farms that have subsided to elevations as much as 25 feet below sea level. Jeffrey Mount, director of the Center for Integrated Watershed Science and Management at the University of California at Davis, said in a recent interview with MSNBC, "The chances of a catastrophic flood occurring in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta sometime in the next 50 years are about two out of three." He called Sacramento, which is only protected to a 1-in-80 year flood by its levees, "the most at-risk large metropolitan area in the country, with less than half the protection that New Orleans had. It is at extreme risk due to levee failure and subsidence."" The most serious catastrophe for the levees in the Delta Region would be a major earthquake occurring during the dry season. Such a quake would allow salt water to intrude from San Francisco Bay, shutting off the fresh water supply for millions of Californians for months. Collapse of the levees during the wet season would be less devastating, as water pressure from the relatively high flow rates of the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers would keep salt water from intruding into the Delta Region. There are no good solutions to California's Delta Region water vulnerabilities, but a new $10 billion dollar canal that would route fresh water around the region is being proposed as a possible way Califoria could avoid losing its fresh water supply if a catatrophic failure of the Delta Region levees allowed salt water intrusion to occur.

A 2009 study by the California Department of Water Resources concluded:

The Delta Region as it exists today is unsustainable. Seismic risk, high water conditions, sea level rise and land subsidence threaten levee integrity. A seismic event is the single greatest risk to levee integrity in the Delta Region. If a major earthquake occurs, levees would fail and as many as 20 islands could be flooded simultaneously. This would result in economic costs and impacts of $15 billion or more. While earthquakes pose the greatest risk to Delta Region levees, winter storms and related high water conditions are the most common cause of levee failures in the region. Under business-as-usual practices, high water conditions could cause about 140 levee failures in the Delta over the next 100 years. Multiple island failures caused by high water would but could still be extensive and could cause approximately $8 billion or more in economic costs and impacts. Dry-weather levee failures [also called sunny-day events] unrelated to earthquakes, such as from slumping or seepage, will continue to occur in the Delta about once every seven years. Costs to repair a single island flooded as the result of a dry-weather levee failure are expected to exceed $50 million. The risk of flooding in the Delta Region will only increase with time if current management practices are not changed. By the year 2100, Delta levee failure risks due to high water conditions will increase by 800 percent. The risk of levee failure from a major earthquake is projected to increase by 93 percent during the same period.


The ARkStorm scenario and Great Flood of 1862 are discussed in much more detail by weather historian Christopher C. Burt in his latest post.


Figure 2. Levee failure on the Upper Jones Tract in the Delta Region on June 4, 2004. Image credit: California Department of Water Resources. A 1997 flood in the Delta Region did $510 million damage, damaged or destroyed 32,000 homes and businesses, and left 120,000 homeless.

Wilma pounding New Zealand; Australia eyes two potential new tropical cyclones
With February nearly upon us, the traditional peak of the Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season is here. Activity has picked up markedly this week, with the formation of the year's first two Category 4 tropical cyclones, Tropical Cyclone Wilma and Tropical Cyclone Bianca. Wilma passed over American Samoa as a strong tropical storm, and hit Tonga as a Category 3 storm, causing substantial damage to the islands, but no deaths or injuries. Wilma is currently pounding New Zealand's North Island with heavy rains and strong winds, and is the strongest tropical cyclone to affect that country in fourteen years, according to weatherwatch.co.nz. Tropical Cyclone Bianca is expected to skirt the west coast of Australia over the next few days and rapidly weaken, but could bring heavy rains to the coast near Perth when it makes landfall on Sunday as a tropical storm. Of much greater concern for Australia are two potential tropical cyclones that could hit the flood-ravaged state of Queensland next week. Both the European Center and GFS models predict that the remains of Tropical Cyclone Anthony will regenerate into a tropical storm and hit Queensland early next week. A second and potentially more powerful storm is forecast by the European model to form next week in the islands to the east of Australia, and threaten Queensland at the end of the week. The GFS model has backed off on its prediction of such a storm forming. If the cyclone were to form, it would be a serious blow for Queensland, which is struggling to recover from record floods. As reported in the latest Bureau of Meteorology climate statement and flood summary, the past four months (September - December) have been the rainiest such period in Queensland's history, and the resulting flooding disaster has been Australia's most expensive natural disaster in history.


Figure 3. Tropical Cyclone Bianca, the globe's second major tropical cyclone of 2011, as seen at 06:30 GMT on January 28, 2011 by NASA's Aqua satellite. Biana is expected to rapidly weaken and hit the Australian coast near Perth as a tropical storm on Sunday. Image credit: NASA.

Have a great weekend, and I'll be back Monday with a new post.

Jeff Masters

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Warming North Atlantic Water Tied to Heating Arctic



ScienceDaily (Jan. 28, 2011) %u2014 The temperatures of North Atlantic Ocean water flowing north into the Arctic Ocean adjacent to Greenland -- the warmest water in at least 2,000 years -- are likely related to the amplification of global warming in the Arctic, says a new international study involving the University of Colorado Boulder.

Led by Robert Spielhagen of the Academy of Sciences, Humanities and Literature in Mainz, Germany, the study showed that water from the Fram Strait that runs between Greenland and Svalbard -- an archipelago constituting the northernmost part of Norway -- has warmed roughly 3.5 degrees Fahrenheit in the past century. The Fram Strait water temperatures today are about 2.5 degrees F warmer than during the Medieval Warm Period, which heated the North Atlantic from roughly 900 to 1300 and affected the climate in Northern Europe and northern North America.

The team believes that the rapid warming of the Arctic and recent decrease in Arctic sea ice extent are tied to the enhanced heat transfer from the North Atlantic Ocean, said Spielhagen. According to CU-Boulder's National Snow and Ice Data Center, the total loss of Arctic sea ice extent from 1979 to 2009 was an area larger than the state of Alaska, and some scientists there believe the Arctic will become ice-free during the summers within the next several decades.

Link
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hmmm wonder if birds are falling outta the sky near Austin, TX

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701. Skyepony (Mod)
Here it is~ most recent TRMM pass but animated (in quicktime), so it shows much more. The pass is the SW drier side.. TRMM shows precipitaion, by a bad pass I ment the drier side. At the very end it get to the eyewall, there's a gap or two there.
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Applied Climate Information System


ACIS is a fully functional system with a flexible design. ACIS will evolve to incorporate additional data sources, generate new and improved data products, take advantage of emerging technologies, and respond to the needs of its users.
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Quoting Grothar:


Mean looking storm though, Skye!

Stop showing that!!.Read post 683.I have some friends down their.And yes they actually live their.
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Quoting Grothar:


"Wrap" it up any way you want to.


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Quoting presslord:
...so....guys...please tell me....Was Cleopatra really all that?


O yeahhhhhhhhhhhhhh...


U betcha..

A tad too much Eye Shadow though,
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696. Skyepony (Mod)
Awesomr TRMM about 18hrs ago right throught the middle as 11P was developing quickly out of nothing. There's some extremely heavy rain there. Click pic for quicktime animation.

Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 156 Comments: 36148
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, you weren't part of the "Library Incident" at Alexandria, were you?? Now that was something. Ah, the good old days. It was so hot then, we thought the whole globe was that way. Who knew about snow.



I have some books stashed.....from before dat fire.

In a Place with No Levee's too.

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...so....guys...please tell me....Was Cleopatra really all that?
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Quoting Skyepony:
TRMM pass on Yasi wasn't all that great.


Mean looking storm though, Skye!

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Quoting Skyepony:
TRMM pass on Yasi wasn't all that great.


It kind of shows the partial eye wall.
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691. Skyepony (Mod)
TRMM pass on Yasi wasn't all that great.
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Quoting Patrap:
...I still cant go to Alexandria or Cairo over dat er, "incident" Gro..


Hey, you weren't part of the "Library Incident" at Alexandria, were you?? Now that was something. Ah, the good old days. It was so hot then, we thought the whole globe was that way. Who knew about snow.
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689. Skyepony (Mod)
Atleast the backside of Anthony wasn't another flooding.

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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


"Dry"...What direction should I take that into?


"Wrap" it up any way you want to.
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...I still cant go to Alexandria or Cairo over dat er, "incident" Gro..
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Quoting Patrap:
How do you think the Sphinx Nose got Broken press..?


That was just a college prank that went bad, Pat. Could have happened to anybody. I still have a picture of it right before "the incident"
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Quoting Grothar:


Very troublesome. Most Egyptians are very warm and nice people, although they have a 'dry' sense of humor.


"Dry"...What direction should I take that into?
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Quoting presslord:


Weren't you childhood friends with one of the Pharoahs?


Didn't like to hang around them much. They always made us walk sideways. Not easy to do you know.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I hope this goes out to sea.Or wind shear just comes from out of no where,and destroy it.Yeah I know these things are interesting in all,but theirs,a time,and a place where such storms aren't needed at the moment.And the more I see it materialize,and strenghten the more angrier I get.Becuase you feel so powerless,and you can't do any god damn thing about it ya know?.This is just how I felt about the hati earthquake in January last year.All we can do is get people ready.Damn.
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How do you think the Sphinx Nose got Broken press..?
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Quoting Grothar:


Very troublesome. Most Egyptians are very warm and nice people, although they have a 'dry' sense of humor.


Weren't you childhood friends with one of the Pharoahs?
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Climate change carbon dioxide including the ice core record of atmospheric CO2. Also the distant past climate. Taken from the excellent National Environmental Education modules.


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Volcanic Activity Report 19 January-25 January 2011

New Activity/Unrest: | Fuego, Guatemala | Kirishima, Kyushu | Mayon, Luzon | Tengger Caldera, Eastern Java (Indonesia)

Ongoing Activity: | Bulusan, Luzon | Chaitén, Southern Chile | Karymsky, Eastern Kamchatka (Russia) | Kilauea, Hawaii (USA) | Kizimen, Eastern Kamchatka (Russia) | Merapi, Central Java (Indonesia) | Pacaya, Guatemala | Sakura-jima, Kyushu | Sangay, Ecuador | Santa María, Guatemala | Shiveluch, Central Kamchatka (Russia) | Suwanose-jima, Ryukyu Islands (Japan) | Taal, Luzon
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Quoting AstroHurricane001:




Compared to this time last year (El Nino Modoki):



A stretch of above-normal SSTs is continuing to envelope the midlatitudes of the southern oceans.


Which is interesting because that belt strengthens the subtropical ridges in the southern hemisphere, increasing the pressure gradient between them and the tropics. This results in faster trade winds which tend to cool equatorial waters.
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Quoting Levi32:
The sun continues to look extremely anemic, with sunspot numbers dwindling on average during the month of January, extraordinarily contrary to the sharp increase that we should be seeing racing towards the solar maximum of cycle #24. The solar disk even went spotless on the 28th, a ridiculously rare occurrence more than 2 years after the solar minimum.

Quoting Neapolitan:

Hey, Levi. As you no doubt noticed, that NESIS scale measures a storm's impact on populations; it can't be used for direct meteorological comparison. An analogy: no one will argue that an EF5 tornado isn't far more powerful than an EF2, but an EF5 spinning across open farmland will have far less impact than an EF2 cutting through the middle of a large city. Likewise with hurricanes; a Cat 2 storm striking New Orleans can be far more devastating than a Cat 5 making landfall on some lightly-inhabited coastline. The fact of the matter is, as Dr. Masters noted in his last blog entry, five of New York City's top-ten snowfalls of the past 142 years have occurred in the past decade, and four of Philadelphia's all-time top ten snowfalls have occurred in a little over a year. Those numbers are probably more than just coincidence.

Any would-be scientist who wants to be taken seriously should really stop reading WUWT--or at least stop using it as a primary teaching tool... ;-)


So as the population grows, those F5's that would have been "harmless" a few years ago are now causing damage. So population density has an effect on whether a storm can be called catastrophic.
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Hi Grothar….Being the world traveler you are, what are the thoughts on the situation in Egypt?


Very troublesome. Most Egyptians are very warm and nice people, although they have a 'dry' sense of humor.
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Quoting Neapolitan:

The reason the chart shows a "straight up" section at 2008 is that it's massively compressed on the horizontal scale; the beginning of that "straight up" portion is around 1800, while the end is at 2100.

Call us "alarmists" if you wish, but the truth is that we humans have caused CO2 levels to climb to the highest they've been in hundreds of thousands (if not millions) of years, and we've caused that 100 ppm increase to take place between 20 and 95 times faster than it's ever happened before. Those facts are not in dispute by scientists.


So, in short, they've grafted a "worst case scenario" line on to the existing Antarctic ice core data.

Using their "scenario", then, they're supposedly showing that the CO2 COULD rise to "...roughly 2 to 3 times the highest level occurring over the glacial-interglacial era that spans the last 800,000 or more years..."

Their data (taken from the same paper as the original chart), showed highest at 339.

2x = 668ppm.

3x = 1007ppm.

So their "2100 Highest Emissions Scenario" estimates a possible 612ppm rise in the next 90 years? That's about 6.8ppm PER YEAR (or 68ppm per decade).

And you actually believe that's possible?
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Quoting sunlinepr:
Corals moving north
As oceans warm, reefs off Japan shift to higher latitudes
By Marissa Cevallos
Web edition : Friday, January 21st, 2011

Some Pacific corals have done the equivalent of moving from sunny Atlanta to Detroit, possibly in response to rising ocean temperatures.

A new study of reefs around Japan reveals that a handful of coral species have migrated from the balmy subtropics to temperate climate zones over the last 80 years. The study is the first to track coral reefs for such a long time and over several latitude lines, a Japanese team reports in an upcoming Geophysical Research Letters.

More.... Link




Compared to this time last year (El Nino Modoki):



A stretch of above-normal SSTs is continuing to envelope the midlatitudes of the southern oceans.
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Looks like nice Super Bowl party watching weather down here in West Palm!

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Quoting Levi32:


Whether the person on the other side of the debate with me will ever believe a word I say or not, perhaps what I post will resonate with some of the lurking readers and prod them to think carefully about the issues and research for themselves and look at this stuff. Such issues are what this blog is about during the winter, as unfortunate as it is. Dr. Masters himself is bold in putting forth literature on the subject.

Atlantic hurricane season will be here soon enough.


You have the patience of Job, Levi; I for one appreciate the insight you provide here.
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Corals moving north
As oceans warm, reefs off Japan shift to higher latitudes
By Marissa Cevallos
Web edition : Friday, January 21st, 2011

Some Pacific corals have done the equivalent of moving from sunny Atlanta to Detroit, possibly in response to rising ocean temperatures.

A new study of reefs around Japan reveals that a handful of coral species have migrated from the balmy subtropics to temperate climate zones over the last 80 years. The study is the first to track coral reefs for such a long time and over several latitude lines, a Japanese team reports in an upcoming Geophysical Research Letters.

More.... Link
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Hi Grothar….Being the world traveler you are, what are the thoughts on the situation in Egypt?
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Glaciers largely stable in one range of Himalayas
Ice in Karakoram region may even be growing, thanks to debris cover
By Janet Raloff
Web edition : Sunday, January 23rd, 2011

Link

An important portion of the Himalaya’s glacier cover is currently stable and, thanks to an insulating layer of debris, may be even growing, a new study finds. The study’s conclusion contradicts a portion of the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report that had to be retracted last year because it could not be substantiated.

Though the IPCC report stated that the risk of the region’s glaciers “disappearing by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner is very high,” the new study finds that ice cover is stable in the Karakoram mountains, a northern range that holds about half of the Himalaya’s store of frozen water.
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Looks like Boston, MA could see about 11 inches of snow. Central Oklahoma is also battling a wildfire, and the extra snow could be some help to firefighting efforts.
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THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL WATERS
OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON TUESDAY...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE AREA OF GREATEST
RISK WILL GENERALLY BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM PIERRE PART
TO POPLARVILLE...THOUGH THERE IS AT LEAST SOME RISK ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA AS WELL.

ACROSS THE AREA OF HIGHEST RISK...ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE POSSIBLE. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. STRONG WINDS AND
TORNADOES WILL BE MUCH LESS LIKELY DUE TO MORE STABLE AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WILL GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5
INCHES. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MARINE...
THIS STORM SYSTEM TUESDAY WILL ALSO BRING THE RISK OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ALL OF
THE GULF WATERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHILE SEAS COULD REACH 8
FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS.
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Quoting Neapolitan:

Perhaps you feel I "needn't have brought the issue up." I, on the other hand, feel I did need to. If you don't wish to have your sources questioned, don't use questionable sources. Fair enough?


You never questioned my data and the original source via the comments about Watts. You were apparently questioning a visual illustration of the data created by someone other than the source, but you never got around to saying as much.
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How climate change is making a direct impact on today's headlines:

Rising Food Prices Can Topple Governments, Too

"In large part, the food-price crisis [contributing to the rioting in Tunisia, Yemen, Egypt and other Arab countries] reflects the simple law of supply and demand. The supply of food has been diminished by bad weather in many crucial crop-growing areas of the world. Russia, Ukraine and Argentina have had severe droughts, while Pakistan and Australia have had massive flooding."

Article
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The areas (US States and Canadian provinces/regions) that will recieve >0.25 in/6 hr of water equivalent in snowfall, roughly 2.5+ in of snow accumulation, from the Groundhog Day storm in approximate order:

New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, Kentucky, Ohio, Indiana, Missouri, Illinois, Arkansas, West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, New York, Maryland, Virginia, Delaware, S. Ontario, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massechusetts, Vermnot, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, Maine, Nova Scotia, S. Quebec, New Brunswick, Newfoundland.

The area consistently predicted to see 10"+ in 12 hours or less: Central Oklahoma, Southern Ohio, Missouri, Northwestern Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Central Pennsylvania, Northern and Eastern Connecticut, and Southern Vermont and Southern New Hampshire.
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Quoting Neapolitan:

As I've said so many times, my intention here isn't to teach or convince; there are others far better suited to that role than me. As such, it's a bit hard for me to have wasted anything. As such, while your comments are probably appreciated by some, one really shouldn't waste their own "masses of energy" here telling others what to say or not say. IOW, if you don't like what I have to say, please feel free to ignore me--or "Ignore" me.
Personally it's not the content but the amount that sometimes annoys me from all in this "debate". I've learned a lot from the serious folks on either wing and have no desire to ig-nore anyone. I only ignore TROLLS.
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TC Yasi




Multiplatform Tropical Cyclone Kinetic Energy and Intensity
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Quoting Levi32:


Which had nothing to do with my post, so you needn't have brought the issue up. We can avoid such rabbit trails if you confront only my data next time. Thank you.

Perhaps you feel I "needn't have brought the issue up." I, on the other hand, feel I did need to. If you don't wish to have your sources questioned, don't use questionable sources. Fair enough?
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Quoting BahaHurican:
BTW, that earlier post goes out to Nea and Levi, both of whom IMO are wasting masses of energy and basically convincing none of the oldies or newbies on the blog of .... well.... anything to do with GW, either way.

Agree to disagree, fellas, and lets talk about the peak of the Southern hemisphere season instead....
From your lips to God's ear. I doubt those 2 are listening.
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Quoting Patrap:


TYVM,....



YW
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Quoting 1900hurricane:
Heck of a good game that was. 6 more months until more college football, unfortunately. Gig 'Em!!!

And to make this post at least somewhat weather-related, check out this doomsdayish forecast discussion out of Norman!

000
FXUS64 KOUN 302032
AFDOUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
232 PM CST SUN JAN 30 2011

.DISCUSSION...
POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING COMBINATION OF WIND... COLD AND WINTER PRECIP NOW
APPEARS IMMINENT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WE
WILL BE ISSUING A PDS VERSION OF THE WSW BY 3 PM WHICH WILL EXPAND
THE WINTER STORM WATCH INTO THE REST OF WCENTRAL/SW OK AND OUR TX
ZONES... UPGRADE CENTRAL AND NCENTRAL OK TO A WINTER STORM WARNING
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN THE POTENTIAL FOR MAJOR IMPACTS...
AND ADD A WIND CHILL WATCH FOR NW OK WHERE COMPUTED WIND CHILLS ARE
-15 OR LESS DURING MUCH OF THE PERIOD FROM LATE MON NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. PARTS OF THE AREA EVENTUALLY COULD NEED AN UPGRADE TO
BLIZZARD WARNING BY TUESDAY MORNING.


CONDITIONS LOOK OKAY FOR THE MOST PART BETWEEN NOW AND LATE
MONDAY... ALTHOUGH PARTS OF N AND CENTRAL OK MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH A
LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WE WILL HANDLE
THAT WITH AN ADVISORY IF NEEDED. OTHERWISE THE EMPHASIS AT THIS TIME
IS ON GETTING EVERYONE TO TAKE PROPER STEPS NOW BY OBTAINING
NECESSARY PROVISIONS... AND NOT PLANNING ON GOING ANYWHERE FROM LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY UNLESS ABSOLUTELY NECESSARY.


ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AT SOME
POINT MONDAY NIGHT AS N-NE WINDS INCREASE AND COLD AIR GETS COLDER
AND DEEPER. PRECIP IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
00-06Z AND ESPECIALLY 06-12Z MONDAY NIGHT. TRANSITION FROM LIQUID TO
FREEZING TO FROZEN SHOULD BE FAIRLY RAPID GIVEN THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION... ALTHOUGH SLEET MAY PERSIST INTO TUE MORNING SE
PARTS OF AREA. LIMITED ICE ACCRETION WILL BE OFFSET BY STRONG
WINDS... WHICH MAY BRING DOWN EVEN LIGHTLY-COATED TREES AND POWER
LINES. FOCUS WILL BE LESS ON SNOW/ICE AMOUNTS AND MORE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR PARALYZING WINTER STORM CONDITIONS DUE TO SNOW AND
BLOWING/DRIFTING ALONG WITH LIFE-THREATENING WIND CHILLS. THAT BEING
SAID... WE CURRENTLY PAINT A BROAD BAND OF 4-8 INCHES CENTERED
ROUGHLY LAWTON-OKC-STILLWATER WITH 2-5 OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
WATCH AREA. GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE BLOWING/DRIFTING... WE
MAY NEVER REALLY KNOW. OBVIOUS ANALOG WOULD BE XMAS EVE 2009... AND
FOR SOME AREAS THIS MAY BE AS BAD OR WORSE THAN THAT ONE.


SNOW TAPERS OFF LATE TUE BUT WIND AND BLOWING/DRIFTING TO CONTINUE
AS TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS DROP FURTHER. WIND CHILL ADVISORIES
CERTAINLY WILL BE NEEDED ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS EVENT... OR WIND
CHILL WARNINGS EXPANDED. THIS MAY BE THE COLDEST THAT MANY AREAS
HAVE EXPERIENCED IN YEARS.


STANDARD INITIALIZATION ROUTINE INVOKED FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST. MAY HAVE TO ADD SOME LOW POPS EVENTUALLY FOR ANOTHER
EVENT TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BUT FOCUS IS SQUARELY ON THE
EARLY-WEEK EVENT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 32 44 15 20 / 10 10 100 100
HOBART OK 28 42 12 20 / 0 10 90 70
WICHITA FALLS TX 31 48 16 20 / 0 10 100 70
GAGE OK 18 30 9 14 / 0 10 70 60
PONCA CITY OK 23 41 15 18 / 20 10 100 100
DURANT OK 41 48 29 29 / 20 20 100 100

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR
OKZ007-008-012-013-018>020-023>031-040.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR OKZ006-011-014>017-021-022-032>039-041-042-044>046-050.

WIND CHILL WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR OKZ004-005-009-010.

TX...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR TXZ083>090.

&&

$$

24 & 26


Yeah I saw that. Looks like places like Oklahoma City are gonna get slammed. And then we have TC Yasi about to slam Queensland..
Member Since: July 7, 2008 Posts: 2 Comments: 3237
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If accessing any NOAA info in the Morning,..

...remember,



Many of our web systems will be unavailable on Monday, January 31 from 7:00 am EST to 8:30 am EST due to scheduled maintenance.


Er,,they have to Update the Grand Cultists Theories in a secret Skype Conference with all the Global Warming conspiracy scientists.






Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 415 Comments: 125681
Quoting BahaHurican:
BTW, that earlier post goes out to Nea and Levi, both of whom IMO are wasting masses of energy and basically convincing none of the oldies or newbies on the blog of .... well.... anything to do with GW, either way.

Agree to disagree, fellas, and lets talk about the peak of the Southern hemisphere season instead....

As I've said so many times, my intention here isn't to teach or convince; there are others far better suited to that role than me. As such, it's a bit hard for me to have wasted anything. And while your comments are likely appreciated by some, one really shouldn't waste their own "masses of energy" here telling others what to say or not say. IOW, if you don't like what I have to say, please feel free to ignore me--or "Ignore" me.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13292

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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