2010: tied with 2005 for warmest year in history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 5:23 PM GMT on January 16, 2011

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The year 2010 was tied with 2005 as Earth's warmest year in history, according to separate calculations performed by NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Temperatures during 2010 were 1.12°F (0.62°C) above the 20th century average. Reliable global temperature records go back to 1880. NOAA reported that the Northern Hemisphere had its warmest year on record in 2010, the Southern Hemisphere its 6th warmest, land areas their 2nd warmest, and the oceans their 3rd warmest. Global satellite-measured temperatures of the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere during 2010 were virtually tied with 1998 for warmest on record, according to the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). The 1998 temperatures were 0.01°C warmer than 2010, but the difference is so small that the two years should be considered tied for first place. These measurements are very sensitive to the effect of major El Niño events that warm the waters and atmosphere over the Eastern Pacific. Thus the 1998 El Niño--the strongest such event ever recorded--set a global lower atmospheric temperature record that had been impossible to match until 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for 2010. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

Earth's warmest temperatures in 2010, relative to average, occurred in western Greenland and eastern Canada, where record-duration sea ice loss contributed to temperatures that were 9°F (5°C) above average for the year (Figure 1.) The coolest temperatures, relative to average, were in central Siberia, 5.4°F (3°C) below average. In addition to being the warmest year on record globally, it was also the wettest (Figure 4.)


Figure 2. The latest rankings by NOAA of the hottest years globally since 1880. Earth's ten hottest years have all come since 1998, and the decade of the 2000s was by far the warmest decade in the historical record. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.


Figure 3. Global departure of temperature from average for 1880-2010, as computed by NASA.


Figure 4. Global departure of precipitation from average for 1900 - 2010. The year 2010 set a new record for wettest year in Earth's history. The difference in precipitation from average in 2010 was about 13% higher than that of the previous record wettest year, 1956. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

A record warm year during a deep solar minimum: an unusual occurrence
The 2010 record warmth was unusual in that it occurred during a period when energy from the sun was at its lowest levels since satellite measurements began in the 1970s. The 11-year sunspot cycle causes a 0.1% variation in the amount of energy reaching the Earth. White et al. (1997) found that sea surface temperatures varied by about 0.04 - 0.07°C on time scales of 11 - 22 years due to this change in solar energy, with temperatures lagging the sunspot cycle by 1.5 - 3 years (because the ocean is slow to heat up and cool down in response.) So, although solar activity began to pick up somewhat in 2010, the 1.5 - 3 year lag in ocean temperature response meant that the record low solar activity of 2008 - 2009 was what affected global temperatures in 2010. Given that the departure of Earth's temperature from average during 2010 was 0.62°C, this difference would have been perhaps 10% greater had we been 2 - 3 years past the peak of the 11-year sunspot cycle. The previous global temperature record, set in 2005, occurred 3 - 5 years after the twin-peaked previous solar cycle. It is very difficult to get a record warm year during a deep solar minimum, making the 2010 record one likely to be broken later this decade as the sun begins to exert a greater warming influence on the planet.


Figure 5. During 2008 - 2009, the energy from the sun arriving at the top of Earth's atmosphere (Total Solar Irradiance, or TSI) as measured by satellites fell to its lowest value since satellite measurements began in 1978. Image credit: Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos World Radiation Center.

References
Skepticalscience.com has an in-depth discussion of Solar activity & climate: is the sun causing global warming?

Wunderground climate change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood has a comprehensive 5-part series on how the sun affects climate.

Gray, L.J., J. Beer, M. Geller, J.D. Haigh, M. Lockwood, 2010, "Solar Influences on Climate", Accepted in Rev. Geophys, 2010.

White, W.B., J. Lean, D.R. Cayan and M.D. Dettinger (1997), Response of global upper ocean temperature to changing solar irradiance, J. Geophys. Res., 102, 3255-3266.

Thunderstorms hurl antimatter into space
NASA announced this week that mature thunderstorms can produce antimatter when exceptionally powerful lightning bolts occur. The antimattter beams were detected by the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope. The amount of antimatter produced is tiny, though, and probably not enough to help power a starship.

"Cap'n, we're running low on antimatter to power the warp engines. Can you fly in low over those thunderstorms to replenish our reserves? We'll use the transporters to gather the antimatter and funnel it into the antimatter containment vessel."

"OK, Scotty!"

I'll have a new post on Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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that my friend has been a disclamer at the top of my blog page for 4 years now and yes it has been written by myself as a legal protection in the off chance someone uses my blog for life or death decisions using info from my page also it protects me from any official weather broabcasting site from claiming iam making official forecasts all entrys are for information purposes only
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54364
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
jf i am not sure if you know this but this is a blog

Of course it's a blog. But that doesn't give people carte blanche to post any unverified and unvalidated claims they wish without being challenged by others. Science demands honesty and openness; anything posted in a science conversation should be sourced, or it should be ignored.
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Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

jf i am not sure if you know this but this is a blog

All the weather images and data on the pages contained herein are provided by external sources. Provided "as is" without warranty of any kind. Any material that is copyrighted is property of the respective owner(s) and is to be used at your own risk. I do not take responsibility for any of the data shown on any maps. That is the sole responsibility of the provider the information comes from. The availability of the data on this site solely depends on the source. Don't use the weather information found here as your basis for life or death information. While the data presented on this blog should be correct, the data feed is not consistent enough to provide all of the data all of the time. More importantly, Your local National Weather Service office and/or NOAA weather radio is where you should get your important severe weather information. Use this blog for your enjoyment, but do not use it when making serious decisions. The information on this blog is gathered from other sources for information purposes only and is not intended for operational use

*******************

Are those your words?

If they are, then you are to be commended for a well written comment.

It needs to be placed as the first comment each time the Dr writes a new blog.

Three gold stars for you sir!


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Quoting JFLORIDA:
This sire has been inundated by trolls posting un sourced and unreferenced information.

Post 55 for instance has several factual errors ALL un sourced.

What if someone were to make a decision based on that. Or even just a statement in knowledgeable company?

jf i am not sure if you know this but this is a blog

All the weather images and data on the pages contained herein are provided by external sources. Provided "as is" without warranty of any kind. Any material that is copyrighted is property of the respective owner(s) and is to be used at your own risk. I do not take responsibility for any of the data shown on any maps. That is the sole responsibility of the provider the information comes from. The availability of the data on this site solely depends on the source. Don't use the weather information found here as your basis for life or death information. While the data presented on this blog should be correct, the data feed is not consistent enough to provide all of the data all of the time. More importantly, Your local National Weather Service office and/or NOAA weather radio is where you should get your important severe weather information. Use this blog for your enjoyment, but do not use it when making serious decisions. The information on this blog is gathered from other sources for information purposes only and is not intended for operational use
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 174 Comments: 54364
Quoting Neapolitan:

... But perhaps people will finally have had enough to do something about the situation in which we're about to find ourselves once again...

One can only hope...


Are you talking about US citizens?
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Quoting EnergyMoron:
Now, does this mean inaction on moving towards a renewables based economy is okay? Of course not... even if AGW is wrong we need to come up with energy for the future.

I would imagine we'll see more urgent movement toward developing renewables beginning again shortly, as more OPEC members announce that the market can handle $100 a barrel crude. Of course, there'll be the usual pushback against renewables from ExxonMobil and the like; after all, they feel constitutionally entitled to hundreds of billions of dollars in annual fossil fuel profits even if that means bringing the nation's economy to its knees, and their lackeys in Congress will do what they can to ensure that happens. But perhaps people will finally have had enough to do something about the situation in which we're about to find ourselves, not surprisingly, once again...

One can only hope...
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Tropical Cyclone Zelia has begun it's weakening phase with visible satellite imagery recently revealing the eye filling in with convective activity. The cyclone is currently racing towards the southeast at over 20 knots. Due to it's current direction in heading and speed, the system should be entering into a region of sea surface temperatures that do not support tropical cyclone intensification by tonight, and so, gradual weakening is forecasted to occur after that time period. Zelia will likely be fully extratropical by the time the cyclone approaches New Zealand.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Zelia.
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Quoting EnergyMoron:
em
“The analysis by Hansen et al. (2005), as well as other recent studies…. Indicates that the current uncertainties in the TSI and aerosol forcings are so large that they preclude meaningful climate model evaluation by comparison with observed temperature change.”

What does that actually mean?
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Quoting EnergyMoron:

"Recent warming is unprecedented, but modern hydroclimatic variations may have at times been exceeded in magnitude and duration."

A tree ring study in Europe would document regional variations. It would be expected that regional variations would be larger than global variations.
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Lots of rain forming out in the Gulf as a warm front forms and begins to move north over the state
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Quoting rogervball:
The warmists putting their faith in the protracted solar minimum causing the cooling is probably a crock also. The normal rhythms of the 11-year solar cycle do not have a significant effect on global temperatures - misleading climate scientists into dismissing the effect of the Sun on global temperatures - but history suggests that a protracted minimum of 20-30 years - which Solar experts now believe to be on the cards - most certainly do. Watch this space.

Oh, but wait: for years contrarians have been stating that those solar cycles were the primary force behind the warming of the past several decades...but now that the planet has continued to warm despite the solar minimum, the best those contrarians can come up with is saying that they didn't mean those solar cycles, they meant those other solar cycles?

Now, that is solid science if I ever heard it. ;-)

I've stated many times: if the steadily increasing temperature trend of the last 100 years mysteriously casts aside all upward momentum and begins plummeting, I'll be one of the first to say to my fellow AGW adherents that we may need to rejigger our thinking. But there are no indications in the word of climate science that this could, will, might, or is about to happen. How anyone can look at all the evidence of increasing heat and predict global cooling is beyond me...

It would take a blind man...

P.S. -- Notice how the graph shows ups and downs? Big upward and downward spikes? Metorologists may focus on those spikes--but climate scientists look at the overall trend. And that trend is undeniably headed upward.
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Quoting JFLORIDA:
This sire has been inundated by trolls posting un sourced and unreferenced information.

Post 55 for instance has several factual errors ALL un sourced.

What if someone were to make a decision based on that. Or even just a statement in knowledgeable company?



Yes somebody is going to make a knowledgeable decision based on one person's post on a BLOG.

LOL

Sorry I just spilled my drink.
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The warmist year ever had a real sting in the tail with the GISTEMP anomaly falling from +0.74C in November to +0.40C in December.

This represents the largest month-on-month fall in the GISTEMP record since 1960.

THe UAH Ch.5 satellite temperatures have plummeted from +0.62C in October to +0.18C in December, and the daily anomalies are, so far, running below 0.00C in January. Thirty years of "global warming" gone from the troposphere in just 3 short months.

The warmists putting their faith in the protracted solar minimum causing the cooling is probably a crock also. The normal rhythms of the 11-year solar cycle do not have a significant effect on global temperatures - misleading climate scientists into dismissing the effect of the Sun on global temperatures - but history suggests that a protracted minimum of 20-30 years - which Solar experts now believe to be on the cards - most certainly do. Watch this space.

So, AGW proponents, : Enjoy your "warmist year ever" - it may be the last for quite a while. Argue against the skeptics all you like - call us "deniers" if it floats your boat - whatever helps you sleep at night. But the fact is that the forces of nature are turning against you, and 20-30 years of global cooling appear to be on the cards.

If the world continues to warm, I am prepared to "switch sides". How many AGW-proponents are prepared to do the same if it cools down?
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Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ZELIA (05F)
6:00 AM FST January 17 2011
=====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia, Category Three (970 hPa) located at 22.4S 162.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots and is reported as moving southeast at 25 knots. Position FAIR based on multispectral infrared/enhanced infrared radar imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations.

Hurricane Force Winds
======================
25 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
==================
120 NM from the center in northern semi-circle, within 90 NM in southeast quadrant, and 60 NM in the southwest quadrant

Additional Information
========================

Organization has decreased slightly past 24 hours. Primary bands to the north and south decreased significantly with north band influenced by New Caledonia land mass. Eye remains cloud filled. Outflow fair but decreasing to north and south. System is being steered southeastward by the deep layer mean northerly regime. Cyclone is accelerating into a weak sheared environment and cooler sea surface temperatures. Dvorak assessment based on embedded center with LG SURR, yielding DT=4.5, MET=4.5, PT=4.0. Final Dvorak T number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/5.0/W0.5/24HRS.

Most global models eventually move the cyclone southeast with gradual weakening in the next 24 hours than rapid weakening after.

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS: 26.5S 165.9E - 70 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 28.7S 167.6E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 40.3S 175.9E - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services will be issued at around 2:00 AM UTC..
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...when the Water acidifies and a Threshold SST is reached,

Will it release Da Kracken?

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Quoting LoveStormsatNight:
Excuses, and falsifying data do not get it.

There is no evidence of either. Did you read the CRU data page I linked yesterday?


What planet are you from?

NASA and NOAA admit it all the time. And we haven't even mentioned the East Anglia debacle.


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Quoting Neapolitan:

Well, my guess is that Dr. Masters went to a network where the quality of the viewers matters more than the quantity...

Oh, wait: you can't be talking about Fox, right? That network would never let a scientist who--or at least one who wasn't a toady for ExxonMobil--within a mile of the studio. ;-)



Get a hold of yourself son, you're losing the bubble.
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Interesting proxy study reported on by BBC today:

BBC piece

I actually downloaded the article and very interesting... to quote:

"Wet and warm summers occurred during periods of Roman and Medieval prosperity."

Goodness me... the medieval warm period was real according to this paper... what a shock.

"Recent warming is unprecedented, but modern hydroclimatic variations may have at times been exceeded in magnitude and duration."

Wow, imagine all of this in the conclusion. Even McShane and Wyner concluded that there is a 38% chance that this decade was the warmest in 1000 years....

The presented error bars look good...

You know, all this dogmatism... real scientists, when working with noisy data, tend to express this. For example, look at this paper on the NASA Glory mission

Glory Mission

Hansen is one of the coauthors, and this report specifically say, “The analysis by Hansen et al. (2005), as well as other recent studies…. Indicates that the current uncertainties in the TSI and aerosol forcings are so large that they preclude meaningful climate model evaluation by comparison with observed temperature change.”

Now, does this mean inaction on moving towards a renewables based economy is okay? Of course not... even if AGW is wrong we need to come up with energy for the future.
Member Since: December 8, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
Quoting pottery:

You STILL waiting on accurate information??????
You are wasting your time you know.
There will NEVER be information accurate enough to satisfy you.
But you know that already. It's what keeps you going....


I am surprised at your comment.

Those details, that you speak so derisively of, will make the difference between honest scientific discussion of a theory or a dishonest discussion using a false premise in the guise of truth.

Big difference and it hinges on choosing to demand actual scientific truth or settling for second class science.

The consequences of acting on this supposed problem are just too important to accept anything less than the very best from the scientists involved.


Their excuses are so elementary school, and the falsifying of data is so dishonest, they simply do not get it.


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Quoting Xandra:
Some climate change humour! ;)

“In a six minute piece a comedian debunks more Denier memes and gets more science and politics right than most major media manage in a year, and more than some have ever managed!”

- Mike Kaulbars, research biologist -




Excellent! My favorite part: "The weather where you live is not the global climate. If you're hard of thinking, get a pen and write it down!"
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Quoting cchsweatherman:


Guess the dinosaurs didn't cope very well with a much warmer planet than the one we have right now. They only survived over a period of 300 million years before an asteroid wiped them out. lol


300 million? your math is wrong. Dinosaurs originated from small croc-like creatures 235myo and went extinct 65myo, that is 170 million years.

And during the middle of that time span, the early Cretaceous Period, the Earth was NOT in a Hot-House phase, but in a mild Ice-House phase. Not cold enough for an ice age, bit similar to Earth in the Miocene. That cool climate is probably the cause of the diversification of the feathered Coelurosaur therapods, incuding birds, raptors, and tyrannosaurs
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Great stuff, Doc!

Fargo's going into a Siberian deep-freeze this week, and is going to have a couple more bursts of it over the next couple weeks according to the GFS. Prolly -30F on Wednesday morning!
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Some climate change humour! ;)

“In a six minute piece a comedian debunks more Denier memes and gets more science and politics right than most major media manage in a year, and more than some have ever managed!”

- Mike Kaulbars, research biologist -



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You know maybe they didn't want to flash the wunderground logo because people might get confused with the violent left winged political group. Would make complete sense.

Oh and how many viewers does MSNBC even get not many. He could go some place else and get his message out so much clearer.
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A vulcanologist standing on the newest rocks of the planet. Mt Etna.

Link
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Quoting PensacolaDoug:
RE:21
If Dr. Masters wants to get the message out, he really ought to go on real network that actually has viewers.

Well, my guess is that Dr. Masters went to a network where the quality of the viewers matters more than the quantity...

Oh, wait: you can't be talking about Fox, right? That network would never let a scientist who--or at least one who wasn't a toady for ExxonMobil--within a mile of the studio. ;-)
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..could have been worse,,it could of said, ACCUWEATHER.

LOL

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In the meantime, the weather here is Fantastic.
Typical January day-
88F
58% humid
18 mph from the east
cloudless and bright.
Rains have certainly gone away, and everything is green and pretty.
Had to prop the branches on several citrus trees today. The weight of the fruit is threatening to break the branches.....

Will start monitoring the Calabash Tree from now, so I will be able to provide ACCURATE forecasts on the coming DrySeason as we proceed to Hurricane Season 2011.
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Quoting calusakat:
We are all going to die in a hot tub called earth all caused by man.

An extremely complex system, aka Global Climate, cannot be broken down into such truly simplistic terms without loosing a serious amount of confidence in the accuracy of our interpretations. We do ourselves a serious disservice when we claim to have rendered such a complex system to a single point of influence.

10 years and we are showing 0.1 C increase and 0.18 F increase. And over that time period, how much more accurate were our tools of measurement, or for that matter, how 'smoothed' was the data set that was used to determine those 'anomalies'.

We need to know these things in order to determine the validity of any graph, even those presented in this blog today.



You STILL waiting on accurate information??????
You are wasting your time you know.
There will NEVER be information accurate enough to satisfy you.
But you know that already. It's what keeps you going....
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RE:21
If Dr. Masters wants to get the message out, he really ought to go on real network that actually has viewers. I particullarly liked the WEATHE CHANNEL graphic they flew to open Dr. Masters segment!
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Brazil slide survivors left to fend on own
Government has been trying to fly in 11 helicopters to remote areas, but has found it difficult because of the rain and low clouds


By JULIANA BARBASSA
The Associated Press
updated 1/16/2011 10:17:29 AM ET 2011-01-16T15:17:29

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TERESOPOLIS, Brazil — Weary from days of steady rain, and bracing for severe thunderstorms predicted for Sunday, survivors of mudslides that have killed 611 in Brazil carried food, water and blankets to friends, neighbors and relatives still stranded in remote, stricken villages.

A slow stream of wet, muddy men and women, some in their bare feet, tied supermarket bags together and slung them over shoulders to carry basic provisions to those too frail to make the treacherous hike down to the city Saturday.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.