Paula continuing to weaken
Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that Tropical Storm Paula continues to weaken. The aircraft's latest center penetration at 3:08pm EDT found top winds at their flight level of 10,000 feet of just 55 mph in the eyewall. The SFMR instrument saw surface winds near 65 mph. The eyewall of Paula has collapsed, and satellite imagery shows the storm has a lopsided appearance due to wind shear. The low-level center is almost exposed to view, the classic satellite signature of a storm under high wind shear. Since the high wind shear affecting Paula is pushing most of the storm's heavy thunderstorms to the north, Cuba is receiving very little rain from the storm. Havana has reported two brief rain squalls from Paula, and top sustained winds of just 20 mph. Sporadic heavy rains are affecting the Florida Keys today, with Key West picking up 1.01" inches of rain thus far. Weather radar out of Key West (Figure 2) noted several regions offshore where Paula has dumped 5+ inches of rain.
Figure 1. Radar image from the Pinar del Rio radar in Cuba at 3:15pm EDT on October 14, 2010, showing that Paula is now very disorganized. Image credit: Cuban Institute of Meteorology.
Figure 2. Radar-estimated precipitation for Paula from the Key West radar.
Forecast for Paula
The models continue to predict that Paula will move along the north coast of Cuba or just inland during the next two days. On this track, Paula will move over Cuba's capital, Havana, tonight and Friday morning. An extended period of time over mountainous Cuba will likely destroy a small storm like Paula by Friday night, particularly since the storm will be under 30+ knots of wind shear. The models are pretty unanimous in showing that wind shear will pull Paula apart over the next day regardless of whether or not the center stays over water. Tropical storm force winds extend out just 45 miles to the north of Paula's center, so it is unlikely that the Florida Keys will experience sustained winds of 39+ mph. The 11am EDT wind probability product from NHC gives Key West a 21% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds; these odds are 70% for Havana. Havana may receive some minor wind damage from Paula, and there may be some minor flooding problems in the mountainous regions of Cuba.
Elsewhere in the tropics
The latest 8am EDT (12Z) NOGAPS and GFS model runs continue to predict the formation of a tropical depression 4 - 5 days from now, in the southern Caribbean off the coast of Nicaragua. The storm is predicted to move northwest or northwards towards the Cayman Islands and Jamaica, once it forms. The GFS model has been pretty reliable in forecasting the genesis of new tropical depressions this year, and the fact that we have two major models predicting the formation of a new Caribbean tropical depression next week is worth paying attention to.
In the Western Pacific, Tropical Storm Megi is nearing typhoon strength, and is predicted to intensify into a major typhoon that will strike the northern Philippine Island of Luzon on Sunday night or Monday morning.
Next update
I'll have an update Friday morning.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Dude I enjoy your words but you are way toooo intense for me.
AOI
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
or do we have ringside seats to its destruction
Sadly I doubt it, but there is the ignore button that works wonders. XD
Where do you find the floaters?Never mind.
"defiantly" is good...
Good evening all.
Showers and gusty winds here this afternoon and this evening.
Very nice temp. drop too.
77F right now.
Hey Pottery, Orca!
Remember when Shen give you chills the other day!!!!
I do!
And I hope he keeps them to himself this time around.
+1000 Amigo, yes there are other human beings in the world some just don't realize it, yet they wonder why the hatred, yet I'm pro -american though not american, but I clearly understand where you're coming from!
That is now how it went down, when he said he was leaving, people ASKED for his new information; so he gave it to them
Every person that is on his site from here, ASKED for the site and his other information.
Oh, c'mon, I'm not that intense. At least not all the time. Just trying to help some of brethren open their eyes and broaden their world view... ;-)
We have had ring side seats here in South La for years! My people(native American) have watched the waters take the land in the century. Of course, we adapt as I am in construction, another great industry lol ;P
I do hope that you are not basing your remarks on "knowledge" gained in the Media....
I don't think even Mexico has really had it all that bad compared to what could have been...
*someone is about to post something about even a single death is significant*
Okay, how many fatalities can be pinned on the entire hurricane season? (Really, what is the number?) Has it even passed [edit] 223? Sure, one isn't good, but if we could have this year every year, that would be GREAT! (compared to what could be, of course)
I'm pretty sure that most people on this forum would agree that Chavez is a lunatic. On the other hand, the original poster might be designated that as well.
Ya know, I just get tired of the "we" are better mentality. Whether its religion, politics, country, wealth, or whatever. Hate is the root of it, and it sucks!!!!
+1 :)
On a happier note. Got a wonderful case of the chills last night watching the positive side of Humanity in Chile last night. Viva Chile!!
Thank you Orca!
+1000 , a breath of fresh air, finally a voice of reason and understanding!!
Ok. now that is funny... sadly its to true of the attitude of many on here... but very funny.
And that shows what man can do!
But Shen,
It was all thanks to the Gringo!
How true!! Felt the same way, What a happy ending, stories like this could make us same like one big happy family, too often it is short lived!
It has been asubmitted for approval, which is done on the first article & it takes 3 days.
For those who would like to check out my blog, I posted the article there Link
Chavez is certainly unorthodox!!
But a Lunatic? I dont think so.
He perfectly understands the role he is playing in South American and Global politics right now. Unless one has an understanding of Venezuelan culture and the relationships that Venezuela has with other countries (Columbia is a good example) in the region (and the importance placed on keeping the US in a state of anxiety, by your competitors), you cant claim that he is crazy.
These are interesting times....
p.s., I am no supporter of his, but when you study the thing, and live next door, bits fall into place.
Because they are different? Maybe they think the same of us. Its a big world, we will never all think alike!
He is aware of the old adage about the squeaky wheel, and the advantages of pulling the tigers tail.
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