A Tale of Two Invests

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 12:17 PM GMT on July 04, 2010

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Good morning, everybody, Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Jeff on Independence Day.

Currently, NHC is monitoring two different areas for possible tropical cyclone development. Invest 95L is about 125 miles west-southwest of the mouth of the Mississippi and it doesn't have much thunderstorm activity associated with it. Dry air from the north and strong wind shear have weakened it considerably from yesterday, and NHC believes it has a 10% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone before the feature makes landfall.

Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean sea and bears watching closely. Earlier in the morning, the convection was all on the east side of the circulation center, but thunderstorms have developed on the southwest side. According to the CIMMS wind shear analysis, 96L is on the outskirts of a low wind shear region just east of the Yucatan peninsula. It's also over warm SST's (>29 deg C), so it could intensify. NHC gives it a 20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Computer models have 96L going through the Yucatan Channel then turning left and making landfall somewhere near the Rio Grande.


Fig. 1 IR satellite composite from 720AM EDT.

Next Update
My next post will be sometime Monday afternoon/evening. If the situation changes significantly before then, I'll make a new post. In any event, enjoy the holidays...

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where has it ever been stated that the only praying allowed was to be christainity. I grew up to believe that prayer was your way of of connection with your religion regardless of what faith.
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Quoting Michaelkaii10:



its Been Soaking Wet and Rather Windy God a Though a woke up to a Tropical storm that How bad it Was

Typical Scottish weather then.... I just found out my uncle in Blackpool past away from heart attack. His cleaner found him. Funeral is on Tuesday, then it's my other Uncle and Aunties 50th wedding anniversary on Friday, he was meant to be guest of honor. A sad time in our Clan at the moment.
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Quoting IKE:
Parallel 12Z GFS @ 90 hours...

Paralell being rather conservative with development. It didn't develop Alex, and isn't doing anything with 96L. It's starting to remind me of the UKMET.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting Drakoen:
Lots of lower level convergence and upper divergence associated with 96L but surface pressures are not falling.


This things identical to 93L so far.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 23012
Quoting Murko:
TX, so much for free speech. Why the hell would I be patriotic about America??
Because we invented your sunglasses...

Do us a favor, then. Do not benefit from the US in any way. You can start by not using any of our satellite information for tropical systems, invented/designed/funded by us. Some of you islanders would be constantly surprised by TCs without the US and European satellites.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Area of Interest #1
Thank you!!!!!!!!!
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395. IKE
Parallel 12Z GFS @ 90 hours...

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Quoting kmanislander:
15 N 59 W

This wave is really starting to amplify.

This little (actually big) guy is going to be a big problem when it gets into the central Caribbean.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
385 is a good example.. poof
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yes kman and that is one that bares great attention by you and yours.
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Quoting Hurricane1956:
Hello good morning!! and happy 4th of July,we are located in Miami and looking at the disturbance East of Florida,what is "AOI #1".means?,some of the models have this mess going east over South Florida,like a tropical disturbance? any comments? thanks!!!!!
Area of Interest #1
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the tropics are really active.. and it's only early JULY..

if it wasn't for shear..
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
AOI #1 is east of Florida. Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean. And AOI #2 is east of the lesser Antilles.


AOI #1... Just needed a few days to detach from the front.
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Looks like Owen Roberts airport in Grand Cayman got its weather station knocked out. It isn't reporting pressure, visibility, or humidity. The last report was 28 minutes ago and it reported a wind gust of 33 mph.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032

Quoting AussieStorm:

Hey Michael... how's the weather in Scotland atm,,, cold and wet?


its Been Soaking Wet and Rather Windy God a Though a woke up to a Tropical storm that How bad it Was
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I don't mind people saying Happy Birthday to our southern neighbours, just as they did to us on July 1st.

If they want to add politics, religion or anything else to it.. then I guess they will just be added to the iggy list.
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15 N 59 W

This wave is really starting to amplify.

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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
That would be "AOI #1".
Hello good morning!! and happy 4th of July,we are located in Miami and looking at the disturbance East of Florida,what is "AOI #1".means?,some of the models have this mess going east over South Florida,like a tropical disturbance? any comments? thanks!!!!!
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Quoting kmanislander:


Lots more to come.
Agreed.
Quoting XL:

Just had a very heavy downpour in West Bay. I was showering my dog when it started - didn't need the hosepipe!
It has been basically pouring up here since mid-day yesterday other than maybe a 1/2 hour here and there. Weather stations up here clocked 46 mph winds.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
AOI #1 is east of Florida. Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean. And AOI #2 is east of the lesser Antilles.


oh ok cool
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114054
Quoting kmanislander:
1500 UTC vort map. The area just East of the islands looking very impressive. This will likely be an invest soon IMO



Agreed.
Wow. I take a 3 day break and return to a very active North Atlantic.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



then where 2 and 3
AOI #1 is east of Florida. Invest 96L is in the western Caribbean. And AOI #2 is east of the lesser Antilles.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting Michaelkaii10:
Happy 4th July to All the Americans From Scotland... Hope You have a Cracking Day :)

Hey Michael... how's the weather in Scotland atm,,, cold and wet?
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Quoting FLdewey:


LOL... I'm not sure that's the "sea breeze" I'm looking for. ;)


There you go... putting stipulations on it, your as bad a Zoo. I want rain really bad... umm not that much rain. She wanted it colder.. we sent you snow... then everyone complained it was to cold.

There is no making some people happy :)
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Quoting extreme236:
20% development chance appears to be the magic number to be classified as an invest.
94L got labeled when it had a 10% chance. If you don't remember 94L it was the wave that interacted with an ULL north of the greater Antilles. To me it just looks like they label an invest as soon as it goes yellow.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
yea maybe...but i am super impressed with the more classic atlantic wave near the islands. Man very nice presentation..perfectly positioned to run the gauntlet..
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Quoting Hhunter:


cyclogenisis occurring x 2...i believe in the next 24 hours we could have double trouble.

I wouldn;t be surprised there could be 3 or 4 areas of interest
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Quoting StadiumEffect:
So much for our holiday Monday, huh kman. I had a small tree fall down in my yard last night, and damage the fence. That wind was a good 35-40mph in gusts.


Yeah, golf game cancelled again this morning. Course underwater.
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:
POOF

So what exactly does this have to do with the Tropical weather in the atlantic?


absolutely nothing...but then again neither did the original comment and you chose not to flag that...I wonder why?
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368. XL
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
East End is POURING and very windy indeed.

Just had a very heavy downpour in West Bay. I was showering my dog when it started - didn't need the hosepipe!
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367. JRRP
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Happy 4th July to All the Americans From Scotland... Hope You have a Cracking Day :)
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
That would be "AOI #1".



then where 2 and 3
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114054
364. Mikla
If the wave at 40W can battle off the SAL and gain some Lat I believe it has a chance to develop. Shear is reasonable, temps are warm and it has some decent convections.
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Quoting kmanislander:
Here comes the heavy stuff from the SE. This image only a few minutes old.

So much for our holiday Monday, huh kman.
Quoting stormpetrol:

Yep, really squally here thats for sure, my brother just called and told me a tree just missed his car by about 5 feet when it fell across the road, not looking good!
I had a small tree fall down in my yard last night, and damage the fence. That wind was a good 35-40mph in gusts.
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20% development chance appears to be the magic number to be classified as an invest.
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Sorry guys, I am letting these nonpatirotic/misinformed bloggers get to me today. I am getting back on track with the tropics. Sorry again
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Quoting Hhunter:


cyclogenisis occurring x 2...i believe in the next 24 hours we could have double trouble.
Possible even triple trouble. The area east of Florida looks suspicious for some cyclogenesis.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and to set the record straight

plywoodstatenative
has been a blogger for over 4 yrs now

theplywoodstate
is a new ly created handle by a former blogger thats trying to decoy himself around a permanent ban under a different username


If you want proof, check the profiles:

plywoodstatenative has blog entries going back to 2007, ThePlywoodState has NOTHING. There's your answer.
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Quoting Tazmanian:


what about that off the E coast of FL
That would be "AOI #1".
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21032
Quoting Orcasystems:


Good morning... its a wonderful day :)
KOG is being good... its a long weekend... there is stuff to watch in the GOM.. and we have T times. What more could you ask for.
nothing more nothing less
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
AOI #1 and 96L



AOI #2



what about that off the E coast of FL
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5089 Comments: 114054


cyclogenisis occurring x 2...i believe in the next 24 hours we could have double trouble.
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Quoting kmanislander:


Lots more to come.
Agreed.
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Quoting soflamac:


wee bit of revisionist history here. they took prayer out of school because it does not belong there. Are you so myopic that you can't even acknowledge that other religions exist? And if you can see beyond your nose, which religion's version of prayer would you allow?


"One Nation, under God" enough said
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.