New African disturbance 96L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:55 PM GMT on September 07, 2009

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A tropical wave (96L) that emerged off the coast of Africa yesterday has organized rather quickly, and will likely become a tropical depression by Tuesday night. Satellite imagery from the European satellite shows a well-organized circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity near the center of circulation to be considered a tropical depression. The storm is far enough south that the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer is not a major impediment to development. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and ocean temperatures are 1 - 2°C above the threshold needed for tropical cyclone formation.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 96L, off the coast of Africa. The remains of disturbance 95L, which are under 30 - 40 knots of wind shear, can be seen at upper left.

The forecast for 96L
Most of the models develop 96L, and the chances are that this disturbance will become Tropical Storm Fred later this week. The system will initially move west-northwest, but by Thursday, a strong trough of low pressure passing to 96L's north will pull the storm to the northwest, and may be capable of fully recurving the storm to the northeast. However, most of the models foresee that 96L will not move far enough north for this to happen, and that the storm will have to wait for the next trough of low pressure. With the steering pattern for this year continuing to feature plenty of deep troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast, the odds of 96L making it all the way across the Atlantic to threaten land areas appear low. Still, much that is unexpected can and does happen in the world of tropical meteorology, and 96L bears watching.

North Carolina low
An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain to eastern North Carolina today and Tuesday, as the storm slides north-northeastward along the coast.

I'll have an update Tuesday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting DocBen:
FRED?????

What kind of hurricane can be named FRED?

:)


one thats married to wilma lol
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
1334. DocBen
FRED?????

What kind of hurricane can be named FRED?

:)
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Quoting StormW:
Hey 456!


hey chief.
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Quoting Weather456:
well Good night all, I'll have another update on my blog 2mr morning.


goodnight, thanks for your input on every
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
well Good night all, I'll have another update on my blog 2mr morning.
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we have FRed
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Here's Joe B. This evening.


MONDAY 10 PM
EL NINO NOT INTENSIFYING.

The latest MEI confirms what we knew looking at various other variables, the El Nino is not intensifying. The SOI run up in mid June to Mid July has cased at bust of .4c on the nino3.4 forecast and the forecasted weak to borderline moderate nino is all there is. In fact the 90 day running SOI shows no response at all in that category. The sub surface water has started to cool. The winter sollapse is likely and even the modeing that has been trying to burn up the planet with the super nino is showing the downturn.

But this nino could be seen coming as plain as the nose on my face. It started throwing hints in January, its a classic reactive nino to the La Nina, and finally, when was the last time within a year and half of a solar min THERE WASNT an el nino. So it was all very predictable and was why I was in such a fit or rage back in March over it, when modeling wasnt showing it ( you can go back and look at posts and the models).

The future of this looks about level the next 3 months then a winter fade. It is getting no love from the Indian Ocean Dipole and there is little SOI love either.

The Long Ranger today showed how bad the climate model was on this from 2 months out, and also showed another major error in Asia and N America, much like the winter, with cold in May-July where it was supposed to be warm.

In defense of the modelers, they do keep their archives up for you to review ( BTW, if you want to get lost in the archives of my posts back the past several year, they are kept too..Hence the fondness for the past)

ciao for now




MONDAY 9:15 PM

ONSLOW BAY OBS

SUSTAINED at 37,,gusts to 45 mph. NO gale warnings yet.

ciao for now ****





MONDAY 8:15 PM

ITS A WACKY WORLD, FOLKS.

There is no question that TD 7 in the atlantic near the Cape Verdes is a tropical depression. But if that is a depression, then what the heck do you call what is now causing gale force gusts ( 35kts) on the NC coast with the radar presentation and cloud presentation we have. When do you see non tropical systems on Labor Day doing what this is doing?

I'll tell you where...in todays world of being more concerned with something near Africa than something that is doing what this is on our own shores. And how can someone call this non tropical. It is plainly warm core, since it is producing banded convection near the center with a tight circulation. We dont see the rain spreading out into the "cool sector" It is being generated by low level forcing of warm moist air. The wind increases toward the center and is strongest right at the center. A thck analysis reveals the warmth at the center. Such tomfoolery is the same thing pulled last year, though that was a stronger system.

I am sorry, I ahve tried to be "nice" about this, but NON TROPICAL SYSTEMS IN SEPTEMBER DO NOT PRODUCE WHAT WE ARE SEEING HERE. A plot of the data in Onslow bay shows the tight circulation this has. I think this is a system that was overlooked and alot of people are going to get a heck of a storm with no name. And its in the same place as Ernesto(downgrade) Bonnie ( downgrade) in 1998.

This is a classic argument for my naming system... CLOSED ROTARY CIRCULATION WITH GALES IN ONE QUAD OVER WATER GREATER THAN 25C.. NAME IT. WINDS GUSTING BUT NOT SUSTAINED AT GALE FORCE..CLASSIFY. It would take away the need for rants like this.

For goodness sakes you are so concerned about a depression near the Cape Verde Islands that will be a recurving hurricane, and its Labor day with gales on the NC coast and already over 5 inch rain amounts reported. When the heck do non tropical systems on Sep 7 do that? Never, thats when

In any case the ideas here still apply, and again you look at all the obs in front and ask when have you seen this at this time of the year not being labeled.

Gales are about to hit the outer banks southwest of Cape Lookout as the band near the center makes its way onshore.

Heh, another first in the making.... gale warnings issued before Sept 10 for a non tropical system on the NC coast. Of course last year we had a first.. hurricane wind warnings in late September, but no hurricane.

Never a dull moment in a world that throws away the past and dictates their own virtual reality.

So just what is this?

ciao for now ****
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000
WTNT42 KNHC 080301
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
1100 PM AST MON SEP 07 2009



THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DUE TO THE
MORE SOUTHERLY LOCATION OF THE CENTER.
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Quoting StormW:


Thanks!

F4...I remember those...nice aircraft.

I guess I do have a few years on you. USMC 1966-1971. OOOORAH
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Quoting serialteg:
Guys, watch this 5day 500-850 steering layer and tell me what you think !!!!


thats old, goes from the 3rd to the 8th.
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
1322. JRRP
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 08/0300Z 11.8N 26.3W 35 KT
12HR VT 08/1200Z 12.0N 28.0W 45 KT
24HR VT 09/0000Z 12.6N 30.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 09/1200Z 13.6N 31.7W 55 KT
48HR VT 10/0000Z 14.8N 32.9W 60 KT
72HR VT 11/0000Z 17.5N 34.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 12/0000Z 19.0N 34.0W 55 KT
120HR VT 13/0000Z 21.0N 34.5W 50 KT
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Guys, watch this 5day 500-850 steering layer and tell me what you think !!!!
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2 down,

2-3 more to go
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WIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIILMA!
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000
WTNT32 KNHC 080257
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRED ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072009
1100 PM AST MON SEP 07 2009

...SIXTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRED WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 26.3 WEST OR ABOUT 245
MILES...390 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS.

FRED IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...11.8N 26.3W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

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...Sixth tropical storm of the Atlantic season forms...

At 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...the center of Tropical Storm Fred was
located near latitude 11.8 north...longitude 26.3 west or about 245
miles...390 km...south-southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde
Islands.


Fred is moving toward the west near 15 mph...24 km/hr. A gradual
turn toward the west-northwest and northwest with a slight decrease
in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days.


Satellite imagery indicates that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 40 mph...65 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some
additional strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.


Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles...55 km
from the center.


The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb...29.65 inches.


...Summary of 1100 PM AST information...
location...11.8n 26.3w
maximum sustained winds...40 mph
present movement...west or 275 degrees at 15 mph
minimum central pressure...1004 mb


the next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
500 am AST.


$$
Forecaster Brennan
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting iceman55:
i was rigth haha


And I was wrong so I will take my "Crow" with catsup LOL
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I know aggie..I know people were praying away Katrina, Ike and Andrew...and the list goes on. I suffered greatly with Wilma...and afterwards my mom gave me a saying....

Sometimes God calms the storm...Sometimes he lets the storm rage and calms his child.

Deep for most people, but helped me.


i like that.
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This is my last post for the night

Moisture convergence reveals an advancing shortwave is advecting dry and cold continental air(sinking air) west of the low pressure system, with moisture convergence (rising air) occurring to the south, east and and north of the system where tropical air is being injected. This is highly non tropical.



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1307. JRRP
Linda no se ve muy linda
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1303. JLPR
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
AL, 07, 2009090800, , BEST, 0, 117N, 256W, 35, 1004, TS

Fred is born


Fred dropped to 11.7? =O
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11.7 N.

BEST, 0, 117N, 256W, 35, 1004, TS, 34
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alright...now I'm REALLY out! later, folks!
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I know aggie..I know people were praying away Katrina, Ike and Andrew...and the list goes on. I suffered greatly with Wilma...and afterwards my mom gave me a saying....

Sometimes God calms the storm...Sometimes he lets the storm rage and calms his child.

Deep for most people, but helped me.


wow...now THAT is awesome!
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Props..
2009 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
07L.FRED
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1298. JRRP
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
AL, 07, 2009090800, , BEST, 0, 117N, 256W, 35, 1004, TS

Fred is born

yeah
Link
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Quoting KoritheMan:


That's just for CV storms, though. Storms forming closer to home are a different story.


DOH! LOL
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Quoting pearlandaggie:


such are the circumstances of chance!


I know aggie..I know people were praying away Katrina, Ike and Andrew...and the list goes on. I suffered greatly with Wilma...and afterwards my mom gave me a saying....

Sometimes God calms the storm...Sometimes he lets the storm rage and calms his child.

Deep for most people, but helped me.
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Thank's Storm.Been lurking for 2 years and decided to post tonight because I'm tired of overraction to every little cloud on a radar screen. All we need to do is read your reports and some others who post here. You nailed Ike a week out and I was prepared. Don't know alot about forcasting but I know how to read charts and pay attention to people who have forcasting knoweldge.
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Quoting serialteg:


now i want to see that...


me too :)
Member Since: June 28, 2006 Posts: 25 Comments: 8360
Quoting pearlandaggie:


GOOD! let's keep it that way! ;)


That's just for CV storms, though. Storms forming closer to home are a different story.
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Quoting Relix:
Fred will not affect the Antilles or I will record myself eating crow and let WU watch it. CONUS should keep an eye though.


now i want to see that...
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Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
AL, 07, 2009090800, , BEST, 0, 117N, 256W, 35, 1004, TS

Fred is born

horray!!
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Tonight's blog is sponsor by The Trinity Broadcasting Network.

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AL, 07, 2009090800, , BEST, 0, 117N, 256W, 35, 1004, TS

Fred is born
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Quoting ackee:
96L going be a fish storm dont see any more CV storm treaten land 4 rest of the seasons


Proof?
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Quoting KoritheMan:


As Haboobs said last night, the longwave pattern does not favor a long-range strike to the United States coast for Cape Verde storms, and he's correct.


GOOD! let's keep it that way! ;)
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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