New African disturbance 96L likely to develop
A tropical wave (96L) that emerged off the coast of Africa yesterday has organized rather quickly, and will likely become a tropical depression by Tuesday night. Satellite imagery from the European satellite shows a well-organized circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity near the center of circulation to be considered a tropical depression. The storm is far enough south that the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer is not a major impediment to development. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and ocean temperatures are 1 - 2°C above the threshold needed for tropical cyclone formation.
Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 96L, off the coast of Africa. The remains of disturbance 95L, which are under 30 - 40 knots of wind shear, can be seen at upper left.
The forecast for 96L
Most of the models develop 96L, and the chances are that this disturbance will become Tropical Storm Fred later this week. The system will initially move west-northwest, but by Thursday, a strong trough of low pressure passing to 96L's north will pull the storm to the northwest, and may be capable of fully recurving the storm to the northeast. However, most of the models foresee that 96L will not move far enough north for this to happen, and that the storm will have to wait for the next trough of low pressure. With the steering pattern for this year continuing to feature plenty of deep troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast, the odds of 96L making it all the way across the Atlantic to threaten land areas appear low. Still, much that is unexpected can and does happen in the world of tropical meteorology, and 96L bears watching.
North Carolina low
An area of concentrated thunderstorms has developed off the North Carolina coast in association with the remains of an old cold front. This system is under about 20 - 30 knots of shear, and is not tropical. However, it will bring heavy rain to eastern North Carolina today and Tuesday, as the storm slides north-northeastward along the coast.
I'll have an update Tuesday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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Roughly every 1 1/2 hours. Each orbit takes 100 minutes. The same general area will get two images a day.
As you stated Buoy 13001 is at 11.49N 23W - South of Cape Verdes Island
And a visual...
click on image for the buoy page.
yeah, so, we should definitely all stop fighting over dumb stuff. enough with the name calling, and let's turn our focus back to the tropics xD
29.87 in
That's what I had meant to say... thanks for the correction.
Where in the world do you get the idea Avila makes $2.5 million?!?!?!?!?!?
I want that job! ;)
Afternoon everyone!
eh... maybe, but i was thinking more of a bermuda type storm. It'll move NW soon then turn back west a few days and then start to try a second recurve. Bermuda is ~5-7 days out.
not likely...he's a Fed employee...probably between $120,000 and $150,000
Ssssspppppphhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!
He may have outside interests (books, consulting) that may get him to that but there is no way that is his salary from the NHC. Total labor budget for the whole NHC is about $5.5 million (46 full time employees).
Is that for real?
07/1745 UTC 12.3N 23.5W T1.5/1.5 96L -- Atlantic
Anyone notices that the orientation of t'storm clusters in Gulf is oriented more north and south per the GFS rather than from sw to ne like yesterday afternoon? Should be a sign that shear is beginning to slighten a bit...
Thanks!!
Latest sheer map from CIMSS! Sheer in the GOM is between 20-30KT for the most part, lower near the AOI in the BOC
Not yet, but they have been known to change the data frequently. It does look like EP15 is now a TS.
I just emailed him and asked.
True. But Avila could also have "deferred comp" and that may be worth 2.5 million. I know plenty of State/County employees that if you combine defferred comp, plus an investment plan pension would have over 2 Million in the bank. Granted, it took them 30 years to get there..
E-mailed Avila? That's great... lol
Link
FYI here's the latest sheer map from CIMSS
Good afternoon to you too, WeatherStudent.
yeah, his email is posted on the NHC site lol
Interesting.
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.4N LONCUR = 23.9W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 11.9N LONM12 = 20.9W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 17.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 170NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Model input differs on the pressure. (SHIPs isn't taking it to hurricane force this time, either.)
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