Hurricane warnings for Baja; 94L forming spiral bands
Hurricane warnings are in effect for the southern tip of Mexico's Baja Peninsula, where powerful Hurricane Jimena is expected to make landfall Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. The hurricane is in an environment with low wind shear, 5 - 10 knots, and warm Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs), 30°C. Shear is expected to remain low, and SSTs will decline to 28°C with a corresponding decrease in total oceanic heat content between now and landfall, and these conditions should mean that Jimena will be a Category 3 or 4 hurricane at landfall. Outer rain-bands of the hurricane will be appearing on Los Cabos radar soon, though the Mexican Weather Service web site has been hard to reach today. The computer models are split, with one camp calling for a landfall in southern Baja, and the other camp calling for landfall farther north near central Baja. The official NHC forecast splits the difference between these two solutions, and landfall could occur anywhere along a long stretch of the Baja coast. At this point, the UKMET model's solution taking Jimena westward out to sea is being discounted, since it is an outlier.
After Jimena makes initial landfall on Baja, it will cross over the Gulf of California and make landfall on Mainland Mexico. Depending upon how up along the coast this second landfall occurs, Arizona may receive moisture from Jimena late this week that will be capable of causing flooding rains.
Figure 1. Image of Hurricane Jimena taken by NASA'a MODIS instrument at 2020 UTC Sunday, 8/30/09.
Invest 94L
The well-organized tropical wave (94L) near 14.5N, 52W, about 500 miles east of the central Lesser Antilles Islands, continues to be a threat to develop into a tropical depression. Visible satellite imagery and this morning's QuikSCAT pass do not show a surface circulation yet, though 94L does have a large envelope of moisture and some modest heavy thunderstorm activity. QuikSCAT noted winds up to 30 mph. Water vapor satellite loops show that 94L has moistened the region surrounding it considerably, and dry air from the Saharan Air Layer is not a major impediment to development. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, and the ocean temperature are a moderately warm 28°C. Visible satellite loops over the past two hours show low-level spiral bands developing on 94L's northeast side, and I give a 70% chance the Hurricane Hunters will find a tropical depression or tropical storm on Tuesday when they investigate 94L.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of 94L, showing low-level spiral bands developing on the northeast side.
The center of 94L probably passed over Buoy 41040, located at 14.5N, 53W over the past hour. Winds blew northeasterly early this morning, then went calm, then shifted to southerly late this morning. The winds were less than 10 knots during the center passage, so the circulation of 94L is not yet well-defined. The pressure fell significantly as 94L moved over the buoy (seen only after one removes the wiggles due to daily atmospheric tide effect present in the tropics). 94L will appear on Martinique radar on Tuesday.
The forecast for 94L
Shear will remain low, 5 -10 knots, over the next 5 days, SSTs will be warm, in the 28 - 29°C range, and dry air should have only a minor inhibiting effect, so I can't see anything that will prevent 94L from developing into a tropical depression over the next 1 - 2 days. The HWRF model develops 94L into a hurricane 4 days from now, as does the SHIPS intensity model, but other models, such as the GFDL, ECMWF, and GFS, do not develop 94L at all.
Model solutions for the track of 94L are divergent. Water vapor satellite loops show two upper-level lows to the north and northwest of 94L that are pulling the storm to the west-northwest, and 94L's motion is expected to range between the west-northwest and northwest over the next three days. By Tuesday, 94L will slow down from its current 15 mph forward speed to about 10 mph. Most of the models predict that the steering influence of the upper-level lows will pull 94L far enough north that the storm will miss the Lesser Antilles, with a closest approach occurring Wednesday and Thursday. However, the ECMWF and HWRF models have 94L passing within 200 miles of the islands, and the northern Lesser Antilles may experience tropical storm conditions on Thursday.
At the longer ranges, the fate of 94L is highly uncertain. The Canadian model turns 94L to the north near Bermuda, then out to sea, while the NOGAPS model foresees a threat to the U.S. East Coast early next week. Both of these solutions are believable. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to make their first flight into 94L on Tuesday afternoon at 2pm EDT.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The remains of an old cold front are bringing cloudiness and showers to the northern Gulf of Mexico and waters offshore North and South Carolina. The GFS and NAM models indicate an area of low pressure may develop along this old front near the Florida Panhandle or off the coast of North Carolina by Thursday. However, such a low may be extratropical and not tropical.
My next post will be between 3 - 5pm this afternoon.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 — Blog Index
Not to mention the FP&L charges you paid even though you didn't have electricity for weeks. Never could figure that out..
Huh? What are they sayong?
Aha! A comrade! (or comradette?) lol
Ana went thru the Leewards and Puerto Rico, besides Claudette in the CONUS.
At the time when Bill was still just a wave coming off Africa, the long term models did show Bill going toward Florida.
It looks like it shows a trough or a low, north of 94L, when it makes the turn. It shows a high north of it a day or two before it turns and then.....a dramatic turn after the high is completely eroded by what looks like a significant trough on September 8th.
I'm not sure, but it couldn't be too far given the cold water, at least on the west coast. No hurricane has ever made landfall in California, although there is a murky and meager record from the 1800s of what may have been a hurricane in extratropical transition phasing with the passage of midlatitude trough off San Diego. Other than that, only a single tropical storm during the 1930s which came into LA. There was also the extraordinary extratropical remnant of a typhoon which affected the Oregon and Northern California coastline in 1962, the Columbus Day Storm. I actually recall that firsthand.
Trend is re-curve this year, will it hold?
You gotta be gettin' jacked up right about now. That's gonna be a helluva blow! We'll be praying for you...
Well by watching it on tv, it appears as if it is actually covering the entire state. It's very decieving for people to watch who don't live where the storm is and are watching it on television.
Yes, It's nice to have live coverage of a land falling hurricane! I hope this individual and his organization respects the fact that a CAT 4 OR 5 HURRICANE will be making landfall not too far from where he is at! I hope his suit is 2" titanium if he thinks he's gonna ride out 140-155MPH winds! I believe 155MPH winds will basically destroy almost anything standing except reinforced concrete!!
True. Still no fun if you're the underbrush, though. No picnic for the trees either. But on the larger scale it tends to work out all right in the end.
18 GMT 08/31/09 15.6N 53.4W 25 1008 Invest
18 GMT 08/31/09 14.6N 53.4W 25 1008 Invest
:)
I think it is working on expanding its windfield.
That's why someone here said "I'll never see a cane in Texas after October" and I was wanting to post "I wouldn't use the word never...", especially in a place like the GOM.
Actually, if you check the hi-res NOGAPS it suggests a landfall somewhere north of central Florida.
yeah really. but its about time we get a little potential tropical action!
the next few days will sure be interesting. especially if 94l blows up.
see ya when the action breaks canes.
StSimon - be quiet!! No hurricane in San Diego - they can't be following me.
Well, I and I'm sure many others on here disagree completely. This is one of the more callous things I've seen posted on here.
Those maps are not run on ULL's. Those are storm specific images that are accurate.
Almost looks like it's curving back out at that point.. hard to tell.. But it's still way too early for any landfall predictions. IMO
14.6N 53.4W is the latest data.
No thanks. I'll pass. Don't want to think about it.
Im done explaining...
Viewing: 901 - 951
Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 — Blog Index