Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog

Quoting Vortex95:
its el ninao.

LOL

interesting blowup off of Georgia? and caribbean blob getting interesting again as well

Link

Quoting Acemmett90:

Make that 4-7 days after looking at the met 9 loop
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/eumet/eatl/loop-rb.html

Forming in 7 days named on the 10th day!

LOL, Taz.
Central Time vs Pacific!

Heres why look at the MJO uplift of Moisture into the Caribbean on days 6-10....seldom do you get that kind of uplift without something developing.......RARELY! So its coming!

Quoting kmanislander:
919. moonlightcowboy 12:52 PM GMT on June 09, 2009


Good morning to you too. No swirls out there today. Just the usual wait and see which is typical for June.

Of interest to me is the fact that the EPAC has been very slow out of the gate. Where this has happened in prior years we have seen a few corresponding periods of higher than average activity in the Atlantic. Something else to watch for.

Good Morning All...Good Point K...Might be related to the MJO as it travels across the Pacific towards the Atlantic Basin...Very active in EPAC is usually quiet in our parts and vice versa when the MJO moves into the Gomex/Caribbean ........This year, nothing of significance has happened yet in the EPAC leaving us wondering when something is finally going to pop somewhere.....

Quoting Acemmett90:

yah i know did you see the recent image from the met 9 its not looking good

I did not see that but, rarely look at others forecast...other than a glance.

Quoting TampaSpin:
I find this a little strange.......NOT SURE EL NINO is coming....could this play a trick and go back to La Nina.......not saying thats happening but, this is strange as the waters have actually cooled off South America and moving West...HUM....

Just as El Nino surprised them in 06, La Nina can surprise in 09. Seems to have been flipping back and fourth quite readily the past several years with no real rhyme or reason.

(Re-posting this)

Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Disturbance Summary (0600z 09JUN)
=============================================
An area of convection (96W) located at 8.3N 134,1E or 70 NM north-northwest of Palau. Animated multispectral satellite imagery depicts poorly organized convection embedded within an easterly wave. A 0418z AMSU-B image supports the easterly wave near the surface, however the multispectral imagery shows an upper level circulation with weakening convection. Upper level analysis reveals the feature is encountering 20-30 knots of northeasterly vertical wind shear and is located under a region of weak convergence aloft.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 10-15 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1011 mb. The potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours remains POOR.

System #2
=========
An area of convection (97W) located at 11.8N 113.7E or 390 NM south-southwest of Manila, Philippines. Animated multispectral satellite imagery depicts deep convection developing over a region of mid to upper level turning with tight surface troughing. A 0221z TRMM image indicates that the convection has started to wrap towards the center of the mid-level turning. Upper level analysis indicates a point source providing good outflow with moderate to high vertical wind shear hampering development.


Maximum sustained winds near the center is 10-15 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1010 mb. The potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is POOR.


---
CMC has a developing typhoon this weekend.

So the warm front is progged to stay in place more or less. A continuing source of surface convergence across one area. And the atmosphere south of the boundary continues to get juicier. And enough cap to hold things at bay till later this afternoon.
The 13Z Day 1:



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0710 AM CDT TUE JUN 09 2009

VALID 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN KANSAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK AREA
FROM NERN CO ACROSS KS/MO AND ALONG THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY...AND
FROM THE MDT RISK AREA SOUTH ACROSS CNTRL OK AND INTO CNTRL AND SRN
TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE EAST FROM WRN NC TO SERN
PA...

...SIGNIFICANT REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED OVER PARTS
OF KANSAS...OKLAHOMA...AND MISSOURI TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE SCALE SPLIT FLOW REGIME IS CHARACTERIZED BY TROUGHING ACROSS
THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER AND SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS OVER TX AND THE
ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE SRN STREAM...A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND 50-60KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK WILL SPREAD NEWD FROM
AZ/NM THIS MORNING TO MO BY TONIGHT. DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WITH THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG AND NORTH OF A WELL-DEFINED WARM FRONT FROM KS/OK EWD ACROSS
MO TO THE MID MS VALLEY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE WARM FRONT
ACROSS NRN OK/ERN KS AREA WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR POTENTIALLY
LONG-TRACK SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO
LATER TODAY.

A NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
INTO QUEBEC CANADA TODAY. COLD FRONT TRAILING THIS LOW WILL PASS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NY/PA WITH RESIDUAL/WEAKENING STATIONARY PORTION
OF THIS FRONT REMAINING ALONG THE OH VALLEY. MODEST HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE NRN STREAM TROUGH MAY INDUCE WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS DELMARVA REGION LATER TODAY.

...NRN OK/SRN-CNTRL KS AND INTO WRN MO...
A WARM AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS RESIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THIS MORNING ALONG AND SOUTH OF WARM FRONT FROM SOUTHEAST CO TO THE
OK/KS BORDER. TSTMS...ROOTED WELL ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WERE
INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS KS THIS MORNING AS MASS TRANSPORT AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT ARE MAXIMIZED ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
ALONG THE EDGE OF STRONG CAPPING INVERSION. CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION WITH THE ELEVATED STORMS SHOULD INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT
NWD RETREAT OF THE WARM FRONT AS VERY UNSTABLE TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS DEVELOP FROM SRN/CNTRL KS SWD ACROSS OK. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION/CAPPING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY FUELING ELEVATED STORMS FROM KS INTO MO...AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR THIS AREA...SHOULD BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR LARGE HAIL
PRODUCTION AS STORMS INCREASE THROUGH LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT/INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED AS CAP IS
BREACHED THROUGH A COMBINATION OF WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR DRYLINE/TRIPLE-POINT LOW AND
WARM FRONT...SOMEWHERE NEAR SRN KS/NRN OK BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
AREA SHOULD ALSO LIE NEAR THE SWRN/SRN FLANK OF RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS
FROM EARLIER CONVECTION...IN A REGION WHERE THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG
THE WARM FRONT MAY BE STRENGTHENED AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE
MAXIMIZED.

GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF AVAILABLE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 3000 J/KG/
AND ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS RESULTING IN 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES IN THE
RANGE OF 200-400 M2/S2...AND RELATIVELY LOW LFC NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR LONGER-LIVED
SUPERCELLS/MESOCYCLONES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A STRONG TORNADO OR
TWO. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PREDICT EXACTLY WHERE GREATEST TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL EVOLVE AS THIS IS DEPENDENT ON DISCRETE STORM
INITIATION NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FEATURES. AT THIS
POINT...THE WARM FRONT AND TRIPLE-POINT LOW ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE
LOCATED SOMEWHERE NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER...OR PERHAPS IN SRN/SERN KS
AT THE TIME SURFACE-BASED STORM INITIATION BETWEEN THE HOURS OF
20-22 UTC.

UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO A SEVERE MCS IS LIKELY INTO THE EVENING FROM
NERN OK/ERN KS SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL/NRN MO THROUGH THE
NIGHT. LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH DEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT WHILE DAMAGING WINDS AND A POSSIBLE TORNADO OR TWO WILL
ACCOMPANY THE STORMS NEARER THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED FRONTAL WAVE EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM KS/OK INTO CNTRL MO.

...EAST...
AIRMASS RECOVERY IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF MORNING STORMS FROM
DELMARVA NWD ACROSS ERN PA. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO INCREASE ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES/FOOTHILLS OF THE APPALACHIANS FROM CAROLINAS TO VA.
BROADLY DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER FLOW AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WITH PASSAGE
OF UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL FURTHER AID STORM DEVELOPMENT
WITHIN MARGINALLY SHEARED FLOW. POCKETS OF SLIGHTLY GREATER SHEAR
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND PERHAPS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIAL FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS THESE AREAS.
GREATER PERSISTENCE/ORGANIZATION APPEARS MOST LIKELY ALONG
LEE-TROUGH AND NEAR COLD FRONT/LEE-TROUGH INTERSECTION AND
DEVELOPING WEAK SURFACE LOW FROM PA ACROSS DELMARVA AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS IN THESE AREAS MAY BRIEFLY ACQUIRE SUPERCELL
STRUCTURE WITH HAIL AND HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE. OTHER MULTICELLULAR
STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME WIND/MARGINAL HAIL BEFORE DIMINISHING IN
INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET.

...ERN CO/WRN KS...
NARROW CORRIDOR OF DESTABILIZATION /MLCAPE 500-800 J/KG/ IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP ALONG/EAST OF THE STALLED FRONT ACROSS ERN CO. UPSLOPE
FLOW AND MODEST LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT SHOULD PROMOTE STORM
INITIATION AS WEAK CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS OVERCOME. RESULTING
STORMS WILL DRIFT EAST INTO HELICITY-RICH ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND EAST
OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. WITH ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW NORTH OF THE
SURFACE/LEE LOW AIDING STORM INFLOW AND SOME TORNADO/HAIL POTENTIAL
WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

...CNTRL OK SWWD ALONG TX DRYLINE...
AN ENSEMBLE OF VARIOUS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM
INITIATION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG EXTENSIVE TX DRYLINE FROM SPS/ABI
AREAS SWWD TO THE RIO GRANDE. WHILE THIS ENTIRE AREA WILL REMAIN
CAPPED BY STOUT EML...IT DOES APPEAR THAT LOCAL HEATING AND MIXING
ALONG THE GRADUALLY ADVANCING DRYLINE...ALONG WITH VERY WEAK HEIGHT
FALLS ON THE LARGE SCALE...WILL CONTRIBUTE TO POTENTIALLY EXPLOSIVE
STORM INITIATION...ESPECIALLY IN TX. INTENSE UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS
WILL LEAD TO HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN
THIS REGIME.

THREAT ACROSS CNTRL OK IS CONDITIONAL ON STORM INITIATION WHICH
APPEARS LESS LIKELY GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE CAP. THIS AREA LIES
BETWEEN BETTER DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL TO THE NORTH AND STRONGER
HEATING ALONG THE DRYLINE TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...GIVEN DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA ANY CONVECTION BREACHING THE
CAP WOULD POSE A THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS EVEN A TORNADO.
THUS...CONDITIONAL SLGT RISK PROBABILITIES APPEAR WARRANTED AT THIS
TIME.

..CARBIN/HURLBUT.. 06/09/2009

That area off of the GA. and SC coasts...has low shear...nice vorticity forming....LLC,ULD.....

The 12Z NAM puts a 1008 mb low, south of the Caymans in 66 hours....

Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Just as El Nino surprised them in 06, La Nina can surprise in 09. Seems to have been flipping back and fourth quite readily the past several years with no real rhyme or reason.

May not officially go back to La Nina but, it may lock in neutral for Hurricane season.

stillwaitings 2009 atlantic TC outlook


also discusses possible TC development,all comments&questions are welcome!!!!

Good morning,

One interesting thing I'm starting to notice with the ENSO... but I believe the current weak El Nino to Neutral conditions will actually become more Neutral than anything else. I've started to notice some cooling in the East Pacific after it warmed up quite a bit. I personally will lean more towards a Neutral year for 09.

Quoting WxLogic:
Good morning,

One interesting thing I'm starting to notice with the ENSO... but I believe the current weak El Nino to Neutral conditions will actually become more Neutral than anything else. I've started to notice some cooling in the East Pacific after it warmed up quite a bit. I personally will lean more towards a Neutral year for 09.

That could have huge implications in the numbers for the Atlantic.

The reason the NAM has TC development is because of the speed at which it ejects the upper level low to Latin America. This creates a favorable upper level diffluent flow aloft. Same reason the ECMWF has a low in the Caribbean as well.

shear w/be dropping over the western carib in the next 120hrs,spreading north into the GOM area in 168,IMO...something is coming mid-late month better than 70% chance,if all comes together the way it looks right now,I've got june 22 for the first named storm,said it about 1 1/2 months ago when we were all on here guessing :)

Quoting Drakoen:
The reason the NAM has TC development is because of the speed at which it ejects the upper level low to Latin America. This creates a favorable upper level diffluent flow aloft. Same reason the ECMWF has a low in the Caribbean as well.

That's what I was just watching...it shoots that ULL down to Belize area...

If those models are correct, it could get interesting....

Looks like the CAPE may help out Vortex 2day

Ike,my brother:the nhc surface has the area offshore SC dissapting on the current surface maps,we'll have plenty to watch come the end of june,imo...with a busy,early ATL TC season starting:)

Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity


The maps display potential minimum pressure and maximum winds, calculated according to a method developed by Dr. Kerry Emanuel. Dissipative heating is handled according to a method described in Bister and Emanuel (1998). The maps are based on data from the 00Z global operational analysis from NCEP for the date shown on the plot. The top panel shows the potential minimum central pressure for a hurricane at any given location (in millibars). Only values less than 1000mb are shaded. Cyan squares indicate grid points where the algorithm failed to converge. Also shown are the sea surface temperatures (°C). The bottom panel shows the potential maximum wind speed expressed in terms of the type and severity of storm they would represent (TD = Tropical Depression, TS = Tropical Storm, H1-H5 = Hurricanes of category 1-5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale).

2006

looks like la nina forming indeed!!!!

Don't know whether it could just be the convective development tricking my eyes, but it seems there's some mid-level circulation becoming well established with the Western Caribbean disturbance that exited Nicaragua overnight.
Disturbance Visible Satellite Loop

MUST SEE!!!

Waters cooling off South AMerica in the Pacific should tell the tale, get ready for an active Atlantic Hurricane season folks can't always listen to the experts.

seems like when we have el nino there is spectacular weather everywhere else and drought and heat over the fla panhandle, maybe the High from hell that parks here sometimes? I like La Nina better! at least it rains!

El Nino is a pretty tough forecast. One person put it as "El Nino is observed not froecasted"

The El Nino of 2004 and 2006 and thier effects were observed but in June it was uncertain.

Quoting JRRP:
2006

Compare that with what actually transpired, lol.

What are the odds of the government on ships going back and forth throwing disposable environmental friendly giant bags of ice to cool the Pacific to keep La Nino conditions and then little heaters to warm the waters to create EL Nino?

Quoting Weather456:
El Nino is a pretty trough forecast. One person put it as "El Nino is observed not froecasted"

The El Nino of 2004 and 2006 and thier effects were observed but in June it was uncertain.

Truly correct. It may just be one of those things we always strive to understand but never do.

Quoting cchsweatherman:
Don't know whether it could just be the convective development tricking my eyes, but it seems there's some mid-level circulation becoming well established with the Western Caribbean disturbance that exited Nicaragua overnight.
Disturbance Visible Satellite Loop

Looks like it but, I've put our little Caribbean disturbance on hold till Wed.

The GA blowup looks like its still firmly embedded in the old frontal boundary.

Quoting twhcracker:
seems like when we have el nino there is spectacular weather everywhere else and drought and heat over the fla panhandle, maybe the High from hell that parks here sometimes? I like La Nina better! at least it rains!

It's hot. I've got 87.8 degrees outside my window.

Next wave just starting to poke his head off the African coast.

Quoting Weather456:
El Nino is a pretty tough forecast. One person put it as "El Nino is observed not froecasted"

The El Nino of 2004 and 2006 and thier effects were observed but in June it was uncertain.

Interesting, that is why I have been asking how the models are impacted by this transition.

2004

2009

Effect of El Nino on U.S. Landfalling Hurricanes, Revisited


Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol.79, No.11 (1998)

During the past 98 years, no El Nino event has ever been associated with more than one major U.S. hurricane. In contrast, the data shows there is a 27% chance for 2 or more major U.S. hurricanes during cold phase and a 8% chance during neutral conditions. It is also possible to see three major hurricanes during these phases of the ENSO cycle: 9% for cold phase, and 2% for neutral. No year has seen 4 or more major U.S. hurricanes.