Caribbean disturbance grows disorganized; Super Typhoon Cimaron batters the Philippines

A tropical wave (93L) moving through the Caribbean south of Jamaica has grown less organized today, despite having only 10 knots of wind shear over it. Wind shear is forecast to remain below 15 knots over the Caribbean over the next two days, which may allow some slow development of the system. However, none of the models are developing the system, and I am not expecting it to become a tropical depression. 93L will bring heavy rains and flooding to Jamaica and Cuba over the next day. These rains should spread into the Bahamas on Monday.


Figure 1.Preliminary model tracks for tropical disturbance 93L.

Philippines hammered by Super Typhoon Cimaron
Super Typhoon Cimaron made landfall on the northern Philippine island of Luzon this weekend as a Category 5 storm with winds of at least 160 mph. There is no word yet on damage from the storm, and I'll have much more on this extraordinary typhoon in my blog Monday morning.


Figure 2.Super Typhoon Cimaron a few hours before landfall in the Philippines. Cimaron may have had sustained winds as high as 180-195 mph at landfall! Image credit: NOAA.

Jeff Masters