Tropical Storm Nicole lasted only six hours as a tropical storm, but triggered torrential rains that caused havoc from the Caribbean to North Carolina. In Jamaica, flash flooding from Nicole's rains killed at least five, and several other people were swept away by flood waters and are feared dead. The storm cut power to 170,000 island residents. In North Carolina, the the tropical moisture streaming northwards in advance of Nicole generated 21.28" of rain for the five-day period ending at 10am EDT this morning. The incredible rainfall total eclipsed the city's record for heaviest 5-day rainfall event, set in September 1999 during Hurricane Floyd (19.06".) Another 1 - 3 inches of rain are likely today, which may make this month the rainiest month in Wilmington's history.
JeffMasters, • 2:23 PM GMT on September 30, 2010
The season's fourteenth named storm, Tropical Storm Nicole, is here, but not for long. Observations from the Hurricane Hunters and satellite imagery show that the storm is being stretched along a north-south axis as it gets absorbed into a trough of low pressure along the U.S. East Coast. A separate extratropical storm is developing along a stalled-out front along the coast of South and North Carolina, and much of Nicole's moisture and energy will begin feeding into this new storm today and Thursday, leading to the demise of Nicole by Thursday. In North Carolina, the the precursor moisture from Nicole has generated an epic rainfall event. Wilmington, NC has measured 15.83 inches of rain over the past three days. This is the city's second highest 3-day total in history, behind the 19.06" that fell in September 1999 during Hurricane Floyd.
JeffMasters, • 8:29 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
Tropical Depression Sixteen is dumping torrential rains on Southeast Florida, Cuba, the Western Bahamas, the Cayman Islands, and Jamaica, and is expected to become Tropical Storm Nicole later today. TD 16 is likely to bring extremely heavy rains of 5 - 10 inches to the coastal North Carolina through Thursday, which would bring their 4-day rain total to 20 - 25 inches. These rain fall amounts will challenge Hurricane Floyd of 1999 for the title of heaviest rainfall event in coastal North Carolina history, and severe and damaging flooding is likely today and Thursday.
JeffMasters, • 1:54 PM GMT on September 29, 2010
Tropical Depression Sixteen formed just south of Cuba this morning, and is expected to become Tropical Storm Nicole by Wednesday. The storm is expected to bring winds of 25 - 35 mph to South Florida and the western Bahamas on Wednesday, and 3 - 6 inches of rain. Higher rains of 4 - 8 inches are likely on Thursday for coastal North Carolina, including in Wilmington. That city had 10.33 inches of rain yesterday, its 2nd greatest daily rainfall in history, so the new storm is likely to cause serious flooding when it arrives.
JeffMasters, • 7:25 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
A tropical disturbance about 100 miles south of west-central Cuba is close to tropical depression strength, and is bringing torrential rains all across the Western Caribbean. This disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical depression later today, and could be a 50-mph tropical storm when it moves over Cuba, South Florida, and the western Bahamas on Wednesday. The storm is expected to bring 4 - 8 inches of rain to coastal North Carolina late this week, including in Wilmington. That city had 10.33 inches of rain yesterday, its 2nd greatest daily rainfall in history, so the new storm is likely to cause serious flooding when it arrives.
JeffMasters, • 1:54 PM GMT on September 28, 2010
Today, for the first day since August 20, the National Hurricane Center will not be issuing any advisories for an Atlantic named storm. Thus ends a remarkably active 36-day period that saw the formation of ten named storms, six hurricanes, and five hurricanes--an entire hurricane season's worth of activity, compressed into just five weeks of the six-month season. This season is not done yet, as we still have three more weeks of peak hurricane season left to go, and the Western Caribbean is looking poised to generate a tropical storm sometime in the next ten days. In the Western Caribbean, a few hundred miles east of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, a region of concentrated thunderstorms has built this morning, and has a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday.
JeffMasters, • 12:26 PM GMT on September 27, 2010
Tropical Storm Matthew has dissipated over the high mountains of Mexico, in the same region where Hurricane Karl came ashore. Matthew's remains will dump very heavy rains over a region that doesn't need it, and flash flooding and mudslide will be a concern over this region of Mexico for the next two days. Guatemala was fortunate--Matthew did dump some heavy rain of up to six inches over the country, but the storm unexpectedly moved well beyond the country, and heavy rains have avoided both Guatemala and Belize today. Venezuela was not so lucky, and heavy rains from Matthew are being blamed for the deaths of seven people in Caracas.
JeffMasters, • 5:28 PM GMT on September 26, 2010
Tropical Storm Matthew continues to dump heavy rains over Honduras, Belize, Guatemala, and neighboring regions of Mexico today. Puerto Barrios, in northern Guatemala, has received 4.57" of rain in the past 24 hours. With Matthew expected to slow down and dissipate by Sunday, the storm's heavy rains of 6 - 15 inches can be expected to cause severe flooding and dangerous mudslides. The rains are of particular concern for Guatemala, which suffered its rainiest August in its history, followed by the landfall of Tropical Depression 11E during the first week of September, which dumped torrential rains on the country that triggered flooding and mudslides that killed at least 48 Guatemalans.
JeffMasters, • 3:35 PM GMT on September 25, 2010
Tropical Storm Matthew has made landfall along the Nicaragua/Honduras coast, and is now headed inland through northern Honduras. Data from the Hurricane Hunters showed that Matthew was beginning to intensify as it made landfall, but no further intensification is likely as long as Matthew's center remains over land. Matthew is expected to dissipate in 2 - 3 days, but will dump extremely heavy rains of 6 - 10 inches capable of causing life-threatening flooding and mudslides. The remnants of Matthew are predicted to aid in the formation of a new tropical depression over the Western Caribbean by Wednesday of next week.
JeffMasters, • 8:45 PM GMT on September 24, 2010
Tropical Storm Matthew is bearing down on the Nicaragua/Honduras coast, but wind shear is keeping the storm from intensifying this morning. A hurricane hunter aircraft is in Matthew, and found the center pressure had risen slightly, to 1002 mb, at 8:24am EDT. Top winds seen at the surface remained at 50 mph, but winds at their flight level of 5,000 feet peaked at an unimpressive 48 mph. Matthew is expected to hit Honduras as a 50 mph tropical storm late tonight, and then hit Belize as a stronger tropical storm Sunday morning. Newfoundland continues to clean up from Hurricane Igor, which is being called by meteorologist the worst hurricane to affect the island in memory.
JeffMasters, • 1:53 PM GMT on September 24, 2010
Tropical Depression Fifteen is here, and is destined to become Tropical Storm Matthew by late this afternoon or this evening. An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft left the storm near 2pm EDT this afternoon, and on their final pass through the strong northeast quadrant of the storm, found a substantial area of surface winds of 40 - 45 mph. These winds support upgrading TD 15 to Tropical Storm Matthew. The future track and intensity of TD 15 depends critically upon the storm's interaction with land over the coming days. If TD 15 misses making landfall in Nicaragua and Honduras, and instead skirts the north coast of Honduras, the storm is likely to intensify into a hurricane by Sunday.
JeffMasters, • 7:32 PM GMT on September 23, 2010
A tropical wave moving westward at 15 mph though the south-central Caribbean will bring gusty winds and heavy rain squalls to the northern coasts of Colombia and Venezuela this morning, as well as the Netherlands Antilles Islands. This disturbance will bring dangerous flooding rains to the countries bordering the Western Caribbean this weekend, and may also be a threat to the U.S. Gulf of Mexico coast late next week. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft found a large region of surface winds of 35 - 45 mph on the east side of the disturbance. If they find a closed circulation, this will be upgraded to Tropical Storm Matthew later today. Satellite loops show that heavy thunderstorm activity has increased markedly in recent hours, with a solid curved band of intense thunderstorms growing to the northeast of 95L's center. Low-level spiral bands are also developing to the southeast of the center, but a closed surface circulation is not yet obvious from satellite imagery.
JeffMasters, • 1:57 PM GMT on September 23, 2010
Hurricane Igor delivered Newfoundland, Canada one of its worst poundings by a hurricane in the past century. Igor brought a peak wind gust of 107 mph to Cape Pine in Southeast Newfoundland, and sustained winds of 58 mph, gusting to 85 mph, to Newfoundland's capital, St John's. Widespread rain amounts of 5 - 9 inches fell over much of southeast Newfoundland's rocky terrain, which is unable to absorb so much water. The resulting severe flooding washed out hundreds of roads, collapsed several major bridges, and forced numerous rescues of people trapped on the second stories of their homes by flood waters. Igor also generated swells of 6 - 8 meters (20 - 26 feet) that pounded the southern coast of Newfoundland.
JeffMasters, • 1:21 PM GMT on September 22, 2010
Category 1 Hurricane Igor is pounding Newfoundland, Canada with heavy rain and winds near hurricane force. In the far eastern Atlantic, Tropical Storm Lisa has formed, but is not expected to threaten any land areas. In the Caribbean, a potentially dangerous tropical disturbance has developed over the Lesser Antilles Islands. This disturbance is headed westward at 10 - 15 mph, and should reach Nicaragua by Friday. If the center of the disturbance stays over water, the disturbance could develop into a hurricane over the Western Caribbean this weekend, and potentially enter the Gulf of Mexico early next week.
JeffMasters, • 2:13 PM GMT on September 21, 2010
The core of Category 1 Hurricane Igor passed approximately 40 miles west of Bermuda at 11 pm AST last night, bringing winds there of 68 mph, gusting to 93 mph, at 11:22 pm AST last night. Bermuda radar shows that the core of Igor is now well past the island, with only a few spiral bands to the south that will bring occasional rain squalls to the island this morning. Pressures are rising rapidly, and the storm is almost over for Bermuda. No injuries or major damage has been reported from Bermuda thus far, though Igor's waves are being blamed for two deaths in the Caribbean, one on Puerto Rico and one on St. Croix. Igor is headed northeastward, out to sea, but will pass close enough to southeast Newfoundland to bring tropical storm force winds there on Tuesday night. Rainfall amounts of 3 - 5 inches are possible for the capital of St. Johns.
JeffMasters, • 1:29 PM GMT on September 20, 2010
Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.
JeffMasters, • 2:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010
Hurricane Karl dissipated early this morning over the high mountains east of Mexico City. Karl made landfall yesterday on the Mexican coast about ten miles northwest of Veracruz at 1pm EDT, as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Karl was the first landfalling major hurricane in the Atlantic basin since Hurricane Ike over Cuba in 2008, and the first major hurricane to make landfall on the Gulf of Mexico coast since Hurricane Wilma in Southwest Florida in 2005. Winds are starting to increase on Bermuda, as Hurricane Igor approaches. Igor is expected to bring hurricane-force winds to the island for 8 - 10 hours beginning near 8pm local time Sunday night.
JeffMasters, • 4:28 PM GMT on September 18, 2010
Hurricane Karl made landfall on the Mexican coast ten miles north of Veracruz at 1pm EDT today as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Veracruz was on the weak (left) side of Karl's eyewall, and did not receive hurricane force winds, except perhaps at the extreme northern edge of the city. Winds at the Veracruz Airport, located on the west side of the city, peaked at sustained speeds of 46 mph, gusting to 58 mph, at 11:54am local time. Radar out of Alvarado shows that Karl has kept its eyewall intact well inland, even as the storm moves into the high mountains east of Mexico City. Karl was the first major hurricane on record in the Bay of Campeche--the region of the Gulf of Mexico bounded by the Yucatan Peninsula on the east.
JeffMasters, • 8:29 PM GMT on September 17, 2010
Hurricane Karl explosively deepened into a dangerous Category 3 hurricane this morning, becoming the fifth major hurricane of this remarkably active 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. Karl is the first major hurricane on record in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche--the region bounded by the Yucatan Peninsula on the east. Given that the Bay of Campeche coast has never experienced a hurricane as strong as Karl, its impact is likely to cause unprecedented damage to a 50-mile wide coastal areas between Veracruz and Poza Rica. Of greatest concern are Karl's winds, which will cause severe damage to thousands of buildings along the storm's path, and the hurricane's torrential rains, since the region has high mountains near the coast that will experience extreme rainfall and flooding.
JeffMasters, • 2:47 PM GMT on September 17, 2010
For the first time in twelve years, we have a rare triple threat in the Atlantic--three simultaneous hurricanes. Hurricane Karl joined Hurricanes Igor and Julia in the steadily expanding Hurricanes of 2010 club this morning, becoming the sixth hurricane of the season. The last time we had three simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic was in 1998. Hurricane Karl continues to steadily intensify, and is expected to reach Category 2 strength before making landfall between Veracruz and Tampico, Mexico Friday afternoon. Hurricane Igor has weakened to a strong Category 3 hurricane, but is expected to remain a major hurricane through Saturday, and will pass very close to Bermuda Sunday night.
JeffMasters, • 8:47 PM GMT on September 16, 2010
Tropical Storm Karl is back over water after popping off the coast of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula early this morning. Karl is near hurricane strength, and is likely to be a Category 2 hurricane when it makes landfall Friday on the Mexican coast between Veracruz and Tampico. Karl is a small storm, and is not likely to bring rain or winds to Texas. In the Central Atlantic, Hurricane Igor is intensifying again, and is poised to bring Bermuda a very long pounding beginning Saturday night. Bermuda can expect a 36-hour period of tropical storm force winds, and up to 8 hours of hurricane force winds if Igor tracks over the island.
JeffMasters, • 2:00 PM GMT on September 16, 2010
The Atlantic hurricane season of 2010 kicked into high gear this morning, with the landfall of Tropical Storm Karl in Mexico, and the simultaneous presence of two Category 4 hurricanes in the Atlantic, Igor and Julia. Tropical Storm Karl's formation yesterday marked the fifth earliest date that an eleventh named storm of the season has formed. This morning's unexpected intensification of Hurricane Julia into a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds has set a new record--Julia is now the strongest hurricane on record so far east. This morning is just the second time in recorded history that two simultaneous Category 4 or stronger storms have occurred in the Atlantic. The only other occurrence was in 1926.
JeffMasters, • 2:37 PM GMT on September 15, 2010
Hurricane Igor remains an impressive Category 4 hurricane with 135 mph winds over the Central Atlantic. Igor has made its long-anticipated turn to the west-northwest, and will be a threat to bring tropical storm-force winds to Bermuda on Friday and Saturday. Igor is not expected to hit the U.S. or Canadian coasts, but it is too early to be highly confident of this forecast. In the far eastern Atlantic, Julia has intensified into a hurricane, bringing our activity tally for the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season to 10 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 names storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, so we've already had a full season's worth of activity, with about 45% of the season still to come.
JeffMasters, • 1:49 PM GMT on September 14, 2010
Hurricane Igor's winds have reached 150 mph, just shy of the 156 mph threshold for Category 5 status. Igor is the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic in three years, since Category 5 Hurricane Felix of 2007. Igor is expected to turn to the northwest Tuesday and Wednesday and miss the Lesser Antilles Islands, and will probably remain a major hurricane until at least Friday, when it will come close to Bermuda. In the Caribbean, a tropical disturbance is bringing heavy rain to Jamaica today, and is a threat to develop into a tropical depression before Wednesday, when it will move over Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.
JeffMasters, • 1:47 PM GMT on September 13, 2010
A tropical disturbance over the Central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of the Dominican Republic, remains a threat to develop into a tropical depression. Satellite loops this morning show 92L may be starting to form a surface circulation, and an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate this afternoon to see if a tropical depression is forming. Hurricane Igor in the Central Atlantic appears destined to become a large and powerful major hurricane in the days to come. Igor may threaten Bermuda late this week. Off the coast of Africa, Tropical Depression Twelve is forming this morning, near the Cape Verdes Islands.
JeffMasters, • 2:18 PM GMT on September 12, 2010
A tropical disturbance over the Eastern Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico, is steadily organizing and appears likely to develop into a tropical depression by tonight or Sunday morning. The disturbance could bring 3 - 6 inches of rain the the Dominican Republic and Haiti Sunday and Monday, and 4 - 8 inches of rain to Jamaica and the Cayman Islands Monday and Tuesday. The disturbance is expected to track west-northwest and possibly hit Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday, and could be a hurricane at that time. In the Central Atlantic, Tropical Storm Igor is expected to intensify into a hurricane tonight, but is not a threat to any land areas for at least the next four days.
JeffMasters, • 3:04 PM GMT on September 11, 2010
A tropical disturbance over the Lesser Antilles Islands is bringing heavy rain showers and gusty winds to those islands, and is a threat to develop into a tropical depression early next week. The disturbance is expected to bring heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches to the Dominican Republic on Sunday, and these rains may spread to Haiti, eastern Cuba, Jamaica, and the southeast Bahamas early next week. In the far eastern Atlantic, Tropical Depression Igor is poised to begin a period of steady strengthening that will bring it to hurricane status by early next week. Sea Surface Temperatures in the tropical Atlantic were at their warmest levels on record in August, the 7th consecutive month with record warm.
JeffMasters, • 1:44 PM GMT on September 10, 2010
Dangerous flash flooding is occurring in Eastern Oklahoma this morning, where the remains of Tropical Storm Hermine dumped up to 15 inches of rain. Yesterday, flooding from Hermine killed two people in Texas who were attempting to cross flood waters in their vehicles. Two tornadoes touched down near Dallas.In the tropics, a potentially dangerous tropical disturbance has developed over the southern Lesser Antilles Islands, and Tropical Storm Igor has developed off the coast of Africa.The U.S. recorded its 4th hottest summer on record in 2010, with 10 states and over 50 million Americans experiencing their hottest summer ever.
JeffMasters, • 1:41 PM GMT on September 09, 2010
Major flooding is occurring in the Austin, Texas region after Tropical Storm Hermine dumped an estimated 10 - 15 inches of rain over the past 24 hours. Hardest hit was the area ten miles north-northwest of Austin, where an National Weather Serivce station measured 10.11" of rain yesterday. The rains have swollen the South Fork of the San Gabriel River at Georgetown, Texas, to 50-year flood heights. This afternoon, additional significant rains are possible near Austin as the sun's heat drives thunderstorm development in the very moist airmass over Central Texas.
JeffMasters, • 1:24 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
Tropical Storm Hermine hit the coast of Mexico 40 miles south of the Texas border at 9:30 pm EDT last night, with 60 mph sustained winds. Top winds observed in Texas were 50 mph with gusts to 59 mph at Port Isabel Winds at Brownsville hit 45 mph, gusting to 69 mph. Harlingen had the highest gust observed from Hermine, 72 mph, and local storm reports indicate that half of the city lost power and a roof caved in on an apartment complex, with no injuries. Radar rainfall estimates suggest Hermine dumped up to eleven inches of rain over a small region 20 miles north of Brownsville.
JeffMasters, • 1:21 PM GMT on September 07, 2010
Hurricane watches are up for the Texas/Mexico border region as fast developing Tropical Storm Hermine steams towards the coast. Hermine was a tropical depression. Heavy rain will be the main threat from Hermine, though isolated tornadoes may also cause damage, particularly over South Texas. Hermine is expected to accelerate through Central Texas Tuesday and Wednesday, and the storm's rains will help alleviate moderate to severe drought conditions affecting Central Texas. The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston are expected to bring heavy rain showers to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands and Puerto Rico today and Tuesday.
JeffMasters, • 9:47 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
Hurricane watches are up for the Texas/Mexico border region as fast developing Tropical Storm Hermine steams towards the coast at 13 mph. Hermine was a tropical depression twelve hours ago, got its name just six hours ago, but already is a threat to intensify into a hurricane by tonight. Heavy rain will be the main threat from Hermine, though isolated tornadoes may also cause damage, particularly over South Texas. Hermine is expected to accelerate through Central Texas Tuesday and Wednesday, and the storm's rains will help alleviate moderate to severe drought conditions affecting Central Texas. The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston are expected to bring heavy rain showers to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands and Puerto Rico today and Tuesday.
JeffMasters, • 4:15 PM GMT on September 06, 2010
For the first time since August 22, when Danielle became a tropical storm, there are no named storms active in the Atlantic. There no indications that today's break in the action represents a beginning of an extended quiet period in the Atlantic, though. The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, located about 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands and moving west at about 13 mph, are close to reaching tropical depression status again. Gaston may threaten the Lesser Antilles Islands on Tuesday, Puerto Rico on Wednesday, the Dominican Republic on Thursday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and/or the Turks and Caicos Islands by Friday.
JeffMasters, • 3:17 PM GMT on September 05, 2010
Tropical Storm Earl roared ashore over western Nova Scotia late this morning, bringing heavy rain and tropical storm force winds to much of the province. The capital of Halifax recorded sustained winds of 51 mph, gusting to 75 mph this afternoon, and the power is out to tens of thousands of residents in Nova Scotia. Earl's center passed about 100 miles southeast of Nantucket, Massachusetts, at 1am EDT this morning, and the winds on the weak left side of the storm never reached sustained tropical storm strength (39 mph) at any New England land station. Earl brought heavy rains of up to five inches to Cape Cod and Marthas Vineyard.
JeffMasters, • 4:30 PM GMT on September 04, 2010
Hurricane Earl has remained roughly constant in intensity over the past six hours, as it heads north-northeast at 20 mph towards New England. Earl's outermost spiral bands have already brought as much as one inch of rain to portions of Massachusetts and Rhode Island, with lesser amounts on Long Island and Connecticut. Earl is still expected to pass 20 - 50 miles southeast of Nantucket and Cape Cod, Massachusetts, at about 2am Saturday, and be a strong tropical storm with 70 mph winds or a weak Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds.In the Central Atlantic, it appears that Tropical Storm Gaston may be regenerating. Models support regeneration, and predict a possible threat to the Lesser Antilles by Wednesday.
JeffMasters, • 9:09 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Category 1 Hurricane Earl sideswiped North Carolina's Outer Banks early this morning, passing just 75 miles east of Cape Hatteras. Earl's 15 foot waves, on top of a 2 - 3 foot storm surge, pushed water over the only road out of the Outer Banks in multiple locations, closing it. The top wind gust from Earl was 74 mph, at Oregon Inlet. Earl is expected to pass 50 miles southeast of Cape Cod, Massachusetts near 2am Saturday morning as a low-end Category 1 hurricane with 75 mph winds, bringing winds of 45 - 55 mph to Cape Cod and Nantucket. Earl is expected to weaken to a tropical storm and hit Nova Scotia, Canada, late Saturday morning.
JeffMasters, • 3:07 PM GMT on September 03, 2010
Category 2 hurricane Earl is moving away from the Outer Banks of North Carolina and is moving NNE towards eastern MA. Tropical storm force winds will start arriving along the Mid-Atlantic coast today, and will arrive in coastal New England later this afternoon. The winds around Cape Cod will increase to hurricane-force by Friday evening. Earl is expected to be a weak hurricane when it makes landfall again in Nova Scotia, Canada.
JeffMasters, • 9:49 AM GMT on September 03, 2010
Category 2 hurricane Earl is near the Outer Banks of North Carolina and is moving NNE towards eastern MA. Even though Earl is losing strength, tropical storm force winds will arrive in the Cape Cod area Friday afternoon. The winds will increase to hurricane-force by Friday evening. Tropical storm force winds are possible elsewhere along the East Coast. Earl is expected to be a weak hurricane when it makes landfall again in Nova Scotia, Canada.
JeffMasters, • 5:11 AM GMT on September 03, 2010
Hurricane Earl has significantly weakened today. The Hurricane Hunters found a central pressure of 948 mb at 4:06pm EDT, a large 20 mb rise from the 928 mb pressure at 5am this morning. Earl will probably be a Category 2 hurricane as it passes North Carolina early Friday morning. By Friday night, as Earl gets caught in the jet stream and accelerates to the northeast, weakening will occur due to high wind shear and colder waters. The storm will still probably be a Category 1 hurricane early Saturday morning, when it will make its closest approach to New England. Earl is more likely to be a strong tropical storm early Saturday afternoon, when it is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia or New Brunswick, Canada.
JeffMasters, • 9:54 PM GMT on September 02, 2010
Hurricane Earl strengthened significantly overnight, and its Category 4 140 mph winds make it the third strongest Atlantic hurricane on record so far north in U.S. coastal waters. Earl is headed for a close brush with North Carolina's Outer Banks, and rain bands will begin to spread over coastal North Carolina this afternoon. Earl is expected to maintain major hurricane status as it passes North Carolina early Friday morning, but weaken to a Category 2 hurricane early Saturday morning, when it will pass near Nantucket and Cape Cod, Massachusetts. Earl is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada on Saturday as a Category 1 hurricane.
JeffMasters, • 3:36 PM GMT on September 02, 2010
Category 4 hurricane Earl continues to approach the East Coast. Earl is expected to maintain strength and pass near the Outer Banks late Thursday night and then go by the Delmarva peninsula Friday morning. It will then weaken as it passes by Cape Cod Friday afternoon. It will likely impact Nova Scotia as a strong tropical storm sometime Saturday.
JeffMasters, • 5:49 AM GMT on September 02, 2010
Hurricane Earl has regained Category 4 strength this afternoon, and continues on a steady northwest path towards the North Carolina coast. The latest set of model runs from 8am EDT this morning shows little change to Earl's track. Earl should maintain major hurricane status as it passes North Carolina early Friday morning. By Friday night, as Earl gets caught in the jet stream and accelerates to the northeast, wind shear will rise and ocean temperatures will plunge, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane early Saturday morning, when it will make its closest approach to New England. Earl is more likely to be a strong tropical storm or weak Category 1 hurricane early Saturday afternoon, when it is expected to make landfall in Nova Scotia, Canada.
JeffMasters, • 9:23 PM GMT on September 01, 2010
Hurricane warnings are flying for the coast of North Carolina, as Category 3 Hurricane Earl heads to the northwest at 17 mph. Earl has weakened some over the past day, but is still likely to make its closest approach to North Carolina's Outer Banks as a Category 3 hurricane early Friday morning. Earl is likely to weaken to a Category 2 hurricane at its closest approach to Massachusetts Friday night, and is expected to hit Nova Scotia, Canada late Saturday morning as a Category 1 hurricane. Tropical Storm Fiona is headed northwest towards Bermuda, and newly-formed Tropical Depression Nine should become Tropical Storm Gaston by Thursday, and could threaten the Lesser Antilles by Tuesday.
JeffMasters, • 3:21 PM GMT on September 01, 2010
Category 3 hurricane Earl continues to approach the East Coast with winds of 125 mph. While the storm center will stay out to sea, tropical-storm force winds in excess of 34 mph are expected to affect the Outer Banks of North Carolina Friday. Earl is then expected to move to the northeast and weaken, but it is possible winds from Earl will affect the East Coast anywhere from Virginia to New England this weekend.
JeffMasters, • 4:13 AM GMT on September 01, 2010