Another quiet weekend in the tropics

It's another quiet day in the tropical Atlantic. The persistent area of low pressure off the U.S. East Coast moved ashore this morning in Georgia. An area of heavy thunderstorms south of Jamaica is associated with a westward-moving tropical wave. Wind shear is high here, 20-30 knots, and development is not expected. The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), the area of strong thunderstorms between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Island, is moderately active today, but no real threat areas stand out within it. The GFS and NOGAPS models continue to predict that a tropical storm will develop within the ITCZ by late in the week. However, any development here will have to contend with a large area of dry air and African dust that covers the entire eastern tropical Atlantic, north of the ITCZ.

Wind shear across most of the tropical Atlantic is forecast to drop to very low levels beginning Wednesday, and I expect we'll have at least one tropical storm developing by the end of the week.

Until then, enjoy these quiet days!
Jeff Masters