Andrea not dead yet

NHC declared Andrea dead last night, but thunderstorm activity has flared up again on the storm's southeast side this morning, and Andrea may be making a comeback. Wind shear has dropped to about 10 knots, and is forecast to remain low until Sunday. Current radar out of Melbourne, Florida shows a marked increase in rainbands along the southeast side of the low, and recent infrared satellite loops show a burst of thunderstorms with cloud tops developing there. Buoy 41009 23 miles east of Cape Canaveral has not shown much change in winds today, which have been running 23-28 mph. This morning's 7:29am EDT QuikSCAT pass showed top winds in the 30-35 mph range--tropical depression strength. If the storm had had its current presentation at 11pm last night, NHC would have kept it as a subtropical depression. However, the more organized appearance may just be a transitory burst, and the storm will have to continue to improve in appearance until late this afternoon in order to regain her name. That's not going to be easy, given that water vapor loops show some very dry air around the remnants of Andrea, and sea surface temperatures are still a rather cool 24-26 C. I give Andrea a 30% chance of regaining her name over the next 24 hours.

Andrea's remains continue to drift south at about 5 mph, but most of the models show it stalling by Saturday, then getting swept out to sea on Sunday. So it appears now that even if Andrea does make a comeback, it will not bring Florida much in the way of needed rainfall. Bermuda may encounter some gale force winds early next week when the remnants of Andrea interact with an extratropical low pressure system that is expected to develop between Bermuda and the U.S. coast.

NHC had this to say about Andrea's remnants at 3pm today:

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA...IS CENTERED ABOUT 75 MILES OFF THE EAST COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN PRODUCING SPORADIC THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY...BUT IT LACKS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO QUALIFY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. WHILE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.

INTERESTS NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN ALSO BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...


Figure 1. Infrared satellite image at 7:15 GMT Friday May 11 2007.

Interesting infrared satellite image
This morning's 7:15 GMT infrared satellite image of Florida (Figure 1) shows an interesting feature--the fires burning along the Georgia/Florida border. These fires are so hot that they are visible on the infrared satellite image. Infrared satellite images are a map of heat energy emitted, and where the hot fires are burning, we see black pixels. The high, cold cloud tops of the thunderstorms surrounding the remnants of Subtropical Depression Andrea show up white.

Other blogs
The View From the Surface blog shows a nice satellite animation of yesterday's Florida/Georgia fires, and Mike Theiss has posted more photos of his chases in Tornado Alley during last week's incredible severe weather outbreak.

My next update will depend on the weather--
Jeff Masters