A Christmas Day Typhoon Headed for the Philippines

Celebrations of Christmas Day in the Philippines this year will have to occur amid emergency declarations as Typhoon Nock-ten puts a huge lump of coal into the stockings of residents of the main Philippine Island of Luzon. Satellite loops on Friday afternoon showed that Nock-ten was undergoing rapid intensification. A prominent eye was developing, surrounded by an intense ring of eyewall thunderstorms with cold cloud tops. With Nock-ten experiencing low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots and traversing very warm waters of 29°C (84°F), which were 1°C (1.8°F) above average, intensification into a Category 4 storm by Sunday appears likely. Unfortunately, the storm is on track to pass over a very heavily populated area of the Philippines, including the capital of Manila.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Nock-ten taken at approximately 06 UTC December 24, 2016. At the time, Nock-ten was a Category 4 super typhoon with 150 mph winds, approaching the Philippines. Image credit: NASA.

A rare out-of-season typhoon for the Philippines
Strong typhoons are rare in December in the Philippines. According to NOAA’s historical hurricane archive, only seven major typhoons of Category 3 or stronger intensity have hit the Philippines in December:

Category 4 Typhoon Harriet on December 31, 1959 (145 mph winds)
Category 3 Typhoon Opal on December 14, 1964 (115 mph winds)
Category 4 Typhoon Nanmadol on December 2, 2004 (135 mph winds)
Category 3 Typhoon Hagupit on December 6, 2014 (125 mph winds)
Category 5 Typhoon Gilda on December 18, 1959 (160 mph winds)
Category 4 Typhoon Manny on December 9, 1993 (130 mph winds)
Category 5 Typhoon Bopha on December 3, 2012 (170 mph winds)

The Philippines—a heavily Catholic nation—is having a bad run of luck for typhoons hitting on major holy days. Just last year, the Philippines suffered their first typhoon ever recorded on Easter Sunday—Typhoon Maysak. Fortunately, Maysak was weakening rapidly at landfall, and caused no deaths or major damage. Nock-ten will be just the third typhoon on record to hit the Philippines on Christmas Day. The others were Category 2 Typhoon Lee in 1981 and Category 2 Typhoon Jean in 1947. The worst tropical cyclone in world history to strike on Christmas Day was Category 3 Cyclone Tracy, which devastated Darwin, Australia in 1974, killing 71 people and destroying 80% of the homes in the city.

Have a safe and happy holiday, everyone, and I’ll be back with an update on Nock-ten this weekend.

Jeff Masters