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Jan 1 2017 - Feb 28 2017

By: HadesGodWyvern , 12:52 AM GMT on January 01, 2017

========================
Northwest Pacific Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Japan Meteorological Agency

Japan Meteorological Agency

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================
January
TROPICAL DEPRESSION AURING/01W - 1002 hPa

February
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BISING/ 01 - 1000 hPa

------------------------------------------------ ------------------------------------

========================
Northern Indian Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: New Delphi


India Meteorological Department

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

---------------------------------------------- -------------------

========================
Southwestern Indian Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Mauritius
RSMC: Seychelles


Seychelles Meteorological Services

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================
January
03R.NONAME - 1006 hPa

February
04R.Carlos - 975 hPa
05R.Dineo - 974 hPa

-------------------------------------------------
========================
Southeastern Indian Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth (90E-125E)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin (125E-142E)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Jakarta (north of 10S)


Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================
January
09U.NONAME
10U.NONAME
14U.NONAME - 990 hPa

February
15U.NONAME - 984 hPa
19U.Alfred - 994 hPa

------------------------------------------------- -----------

========================
Southwestern Pacific Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin (142E-160E)
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Papua New Guinea (north of 10S)


Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================

February
19U.NONAME

------------------------------------------------ -------------

========================
Southeastern Pacific Ocean
=========================

Area of Responsibility
==============================
RSMC: Nadi (east of 160E)
TCWC: Wellington (east of 160E and south of 25S)


Fiji Meteorological Services

Storm archives (Active Storms in Color)
======================================
January
06F.NONAME - 1003 hPa
07F.NONAME - 998 hPa
08F.NONAME - 1009 hPa

February
09F.NONAME - 999 hPa
10F.NONAME - 993 hPa
11F.NONAME - 1000 hPa
12F.NONAME - 1002 hPa
13F.NONAME - 998 hPa (moved south of 25S)
14F.NONAME - 997 hPa (moved south of 25S) - extratropical low [TCWC Wellington]
15F.Bart - 994 hPa (moved south of 25S)
16F.NONAME - 1005 hPa


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

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293. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
12:22 AM GMT on March 01, 2017
HadesGodWyvern has created a new entry.
292. Grifforzer
2:17 PM GMT on February 28, 2017
RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM RET February 28 2017
=============================

Suspect area west of the Chagos Archipelago
------------------------------------------------- ----
Last satellite data show the building of a rotating movement inside the cloud pattern. The center of this mid-level circulation is around 6.5S 70.2E at 1000Z. However, 0510Z ASCAT swath, in agreement with Diego Garcia, ground observations, depicts a different pattern at sea level. The circulation is ill-defined, probably not close, and seems to be located southern than the previous vortex, around 8S. Thus, the low and mid level circulations are not coupled yet (as seen by CIMSS vorticty data). Strongest winds ranging up to 15 knots are far from the center, in the feedings (especially in the polar one). In relation with this lack of organization, 0341Z GMI and 0751Z AMSR2 microwave swaths, confirm that convective activity is very weak near the broad core. Still, the system benefits from a very good upper divergence and a decaying wind shear (10 knots according to CIMSS). Mean sea level pressure is near 1007 hPa.

By the end of the week, low level environment is expected to improve. Polar and equatorial convergence are forecast to increase with the arrival of a new anticyclone at south, and the strengthening of a near equatorial ridge at northeast. The inner core may become symmetric and contract a little, allowing a deepening phase in a conducive environment at all levels.

Numerical guidance is still in rather disagreement on the evolution of this minimum, with increasing uncertainties from Thursday. Indeed, IFS suggest a strong intensification, on a west southwestwards track meanwhile GFS forecast a slower deepening on the southward track. Theses differences are mostly explained by the different structures. In the GFS scenario, the system is hindered by it monsoon depression pattern, at first, in contrary to the European scenario where it rapidly gains a more classical structure. On the latest guidance, a convergence trend seems to occur towards a median track closer to UKMO. Predictability is expected to increase tomorrow and Thursday.

For the next 5 days, the likelihood of development of a moderate tropical storm becomes MODERATE Thursday and then HIGH from Saturday.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
291. whitewabit
8:49 AM GMT on February 26, 2017
21 degrees just before 3 am .. had a dusting of snow yesterday morning when we got up ..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
290. Grifforzer
12:56 AM GMT on February 26, 2017
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
9:00 AM FST February 26 2017
========================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 16F (1006 hPa) located at 23.4S 165.4W is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on HIMAWARI-8 visible imagery and peripheral surface observations.

Convection slightly displaced east of the supposed low level circulation center. System lies under an upper ridge in a low to moderate sheared environment. sea surface temperatures is around 29C and system moving into lower sea surface temperatures.

Global models move the system southeastwards with no intensification.

Potential for this tropical disturbance to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is LOW.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
289. Grifforzer
1:53 AM GMT on February 25, 2017
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
11:00 AM FST February 25 2017
========================

At 23:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 16F (1006 hPa) located at 21.1S 170.8W is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on HIMAWARI-8 visible imagery and peripheral surface observations.

Organization has slightly improved over the past 24 hours. Convection slightly displaced east of the supposed low level circulation center. System lies under an upper diffluent flow in a low to moderate sheared environment. Sea surface temperatures is around 29C and system moving into lower sea surface temperatures.

Global models maintain a southeastwards with slight intensification.

Potential for this tropical disturbance to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is LOW.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
288. Grifforzer
1:34 AM GMT on February 25, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wellington
Gale Warning
7:00 AM NZDT February 25 2017
====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Low (14F) 979 hPa located at 38.0S 144.0W has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. The low is reported as moving east southeast at 35 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
300 NM from the center in sector from southwest through northwest to east
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
286. Grifforzer
8:20 AM GMT on February 24, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wellington
Gale Warning
19:00 PM NZDT February 24 2017
====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Low (14F) 986 hPa located at 34.0S 153.0W has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. The low is reported as moving east southeast at 25 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
240 NM from the center in sector from southwest through northwest to east
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
285. Grifforzer
5:21 AM GMT on February 24, 2017
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
9:00 AM FST February 24 2017
========================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 12F (1008 hPa) located at 21.2S 171.8W is reported as moving southeast at 25 knots. Position poor based on HIMAWARI-8 visible imagery and peripheral surface observations.

Convection has weakened significantly in the last 24 hours. System lies under an upper ridge in a moderate sheared environment and moving into a higher sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 28 and system moving into lower sea surface temperature.

Global models move 12F southeastwards with no intensification.

Potential for this tropical disturbance to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is VERY LOW.

System #2
--------------

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 16F (1008 hPa) located at 16.2S 177.8W is reported as moving southeast at 25 knots. Position poor based on HIMAWARI-8 visible imagery and peripheral surface observations.

Organization has slightly improved over the past 24 hours. Convection slightly displaced east of the supposed low level circulation center. System lies under an upper diffluent flow in a low to moderate sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is around 29C and system moving into lower sea surface temperature.

Global models maintain a southeastwards with slight intensification.

Potential for this tropical disturbance to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is LOW.


Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
284. Grifforzer
5:15 AM GMT on February 24, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wellington
Gale Warning
13:00 PM NZDT February 24 2017
====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Low (14F) 990 hPa located at 33.0S 155.0W has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. The low is reported as moving east southeast at 15 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
180 NM from the center in sector from southwest through northwest to east
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
283. Grifforzer
7:23 PM GMT on February 23, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wellington
Gale Warning
7:00 AM NZDT February 24 2017
====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Low (14F) 991 hPa located at 32.0S 157.0W has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. The low is reported as moving southeast at 15 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
120 NM from the center in sector from southwest through northwest to east
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
282. Grifforzer
7:42 AM GMT on February 23, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wellington
Gale Warning
19:00 PM NZDT February 23 2017
====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Low (TC BART) 998 hPa located at 31.0S 147.0W has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. The low is reported as moving east at 20 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
240 NM from the center in sector from east through south to southwest

System #2
--------------

At 6:00 AM UTC, Low (14F) 995 hPa located at 29.0S 161.0W has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. The low is reported as moving southeast at 20 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
180 NM from the center in sector from northwest through northeast to east
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
281. Grifforzer
6:07 AM GMT on February 23, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:00 PM WST February 23 2017
=================================

A weak tropical low may develop in the northern Kimberley or Joseph Bonaparte Gulf on Friday or Saturday. The low is likely to move offshore northwest of the Kimberley coast on Sunday but should remain weak and is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
280. Grifforzer
1:12 AM GMT on February 23, 2017
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
9:00 AM FST February 23 2017
=======================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 12F (1002 hPa) located at 16.2S 179.9E is reported as moving east at 30 knots. Position poor based on HIMAWARI-8 infrared/enhanced infrared/visible imagery and peripheral surface obervations.

Convection remains persistent over a supposed low level circulation center in the past 12 hours. Organization remains poor. System lies under an upper ridge in a low sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Global models move td12f eastwards with slight intensification.

Potential for this tropical disturbance to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is LOW.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
279. Grifforzer
1:09 AM GMT on February 23, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wellington
Gale Warning
13:00 PM NZDT February 23 2017
==================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Low (TC BART) 993 hPa located at 30.0S 149.0W has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. The low is reported as moving east at 20 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=============
240 NM from the center in eastern semi-circle
180 NM from the center in western semi-circle

System #2
-------------

At 0:00 AM UTC, Low (14F) 995 hPa located at 27.0S 163.0W has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. The low is reported as moving southeast at 25 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
180 NM from the center in sector from northwest through northeast to east
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
278. Grifforzer
8:11 PM GMT on February 22, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wellington
Gale Warning
7:00 AM NZDT February 23 2017
==================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, LOW (TC BART) 994 hPa located at 29.0S 151.0W has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots and is reported as moving east southeast at 20 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
240 NM from the center in eastern semicircle

System #2
----------

At 18:00 PM UTC, Low (14F) 997 hPa located at 26.0S 165.0W has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots and is reported as moving east southeast at 20 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
120 NM from the center in sector from northwest through northeast to east
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
277. WeatherWise
3:41 PM GMT on February 22, 2017
What's in Bloom at The State Arboretum of Virginia?
Note frin the website: Bloom times may vary according to weather conditions.

Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
276. WeatherWise
3:34 PM GMT on February 22, 2017
Hi Hades, You never got your account straight so you can post. That is strange. Is it possible you banned your own self from you own blog?

Don't think the magnolias are in bloom. Am thinking the are summer flowering trees on into the fall when they start to form those pretty red seed cones. Not sure as to when they really bloom. Many in my neighborhood that were SO pretty in shape and all were sliced in half - like the whole front of tree cut off. There are some trees you just can do that too. I hope they recover from it. The city hired a tree service to trim branches off of the lines - I was surprised by what they actually did.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
275. Grifforzer
2:38 PM GMT on February 22, 2017
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14F
0:00 AM FST February 23 2017
============================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 14F (997 hPa) located at 24.6S 166.9W has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. Position fair based on HIMAWARI-8 and GOES infrared/enhanced infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports. The depression is reported as moving east southeast at 30 knots.

Low level circulation center exposed with convection displaced to the southeast. Organization poor. System under the subtropical jet and in a high sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA. Outflow good to the southeastern quadrant but restricted elsewhere. Sea surface temperature is around 27C. Dvorak analysis based on shear pattern with deep convection greater than 75 nautical miles from low level circulation center yields DT=1.5, met and pt agree. Final Dvorak based on DT. CI held higher due CI rule.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/2.0/W0.5/24HRS

The system is moving into Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wellington Area of Responsibility.

This is the final tropical disturbance advisory on TD 14F from RSMC Nadi...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
274. Grifforzer
2:31 PM GMT on February 22, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wellington
Gale Warning
1:00 AM NZDT February 23 2017
==================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone BART (995 hPa) located at 26.9S 151.6W has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 20 knots.

Gale Force winds
=================
130 NM from the center in eastern semicircle
60 NM from the center in western semicircle
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
273. Grifforzer
8:50 AM GMT on February 22, 2017
Fiji Meteorological Services
Gale Warning
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14F
18:00 PM FST February 22 2017
============================
southeast of Tonga

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 14F (997 hPa) located at 22.8S 169.4W has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. Position poor based on HIMAWARI-8 and GOES infrared/enhanced infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports. The depression is reported as moving east southeast at 30 knots.

Gale force winds within 60-180 NM in the sector from northwest through north to southeast of 14F. Expect northwest to southeast winds of 35-40 knots.

Convection reduced and sheared to the southeast of the system in past 3 hours. Organization becoming poor due to dry air entrainment towards the center. System lies south of an upper ridge in a high sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA. Outflow good to the southeastern quadrant but restricted elsewhere. Sea surface temperature is around 27C. Dvorak analysis based on curved band pattern with 0.3 wrap yields DT=2.0, MET=2.0 and PT=2.5. Final Dvorak based on PT. Ci held higher due to initial weakening.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/W0.5/24 HRS

Global models move the system southeast with slight intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
==============
12 HRS: 25.6S 165.1W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS: 28.1S 161.6W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS: 32.9S 153.4W - 35 knots
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
272. Grifforzer
7:12 AM GMT on February 22, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Wellington
Gale Warning
19:00 PM NZDT February 22 2017
==================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone BART (995 hPa) located at 26.1S 153.8W has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 30 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
130 NM from the center in the eastern semicircle
60 NM from the center in the western semicircle
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
271. Grifforzer
6:54 AM GMT on February 22, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:00 PM WST February 22 2017
=================================

A weak tropical low lies over open water in the Indian Ocean approximately 450 km southwest of the Cocos Islands. The low is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone should continue to move west and be outside the Western Region on Thursday.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred (19U) continues to weaken overland in the eastern Northern Territory. The low will move west and be situated in the northern Kimberley or Joseph Bonaparte Gulf on Friday or Saturday. The low should remain weak and is not expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
270. Grifforzer
3:00 AM GMT on February 22, 2017
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
9:00 AM FST February 22 2017
===========================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 12F (1004 hPa) located at 16.0S 175.0E is reported as slowly moving. Position good based on HIMAWARI-8 infrared/enhanced infrared imagery and peripheral surface observations.

Convection suppressed and organization poor. System lies south of an upper ridge in a moderate sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Global models move 12F eastwards with no further intensification.

Potential for this tropical disturbance to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is LOW.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
269. Grifforzer
2:55 AM GMT on February 22, 2017
Fiji Meteorological Services
Gale Warning
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14F
1200 PM FST February 22 2017
============================
southeast of Tonga

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 14F (998 hPa) located at 21.8S 171.6W has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. Position fair based on HIMAWARI-8 and GOES infrared/visible imagery and peripheral surface reports. The depression is reported as moving southeast at 30 knots.

Gale Force winds within 60-180 nm in the sector from northwest through north to southeast of the center.

Deep convection remains persistent and organization has improved in past 24 hours. Sea surface temperature is around 28C. System lies under an upper ridge in a low sheared environment with moderate divergence aloft. Cyclone circulation extends up to 500 HPA. Dvorak analysis based on 0.40 wrap yields DT=2.5. MET and PT agree. Final Dvorak based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Global models move the system southeast with some intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS: 24.9S 166.4W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 28.0S 162.5W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
268. Grifforzer
2:48 AM GMT on February 22, 2017
Fiji Meteorological Services
Gale Warning
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #6
TROPICAL CYCLONE BART, CATEGORY ONE (15F)
12:00 PM FST February 22 2017
================================
Southeast of Rarotonga

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Bart, Category One (995 hPa) located at 25.6S 156.8W has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. Position poor based on HIMAWARI-8 and GOES visible/infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 30 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
120 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
60 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Convection reduced and sheared to the southeast of the system in past 3 hours. Organization becoming poor due to dry air entrainment towards the center. System lies south of an upper ridge in a high sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA. Outflow good to the southeastern quadrant but restricted elsewhere. Sea surface temperature is around 28C. Dvorak analysis based on curved band pattern with 0.5 wrap yields DT=2.5, MET and PT agree. Final Dvorak based on DT. Ci held higher due to initial weakening.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Global models maintain southeast movement with gradual weakening.

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS: 28.1S 153.3W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 30.5S 149.3W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
48 HRS: 34.2S 139.7W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)

This is the final tropical disturbance advisory on TC Bart as the system has left RSMC Nadi's Area of Responsibility...
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
267. Grifforzer
9:18 PM GMT on February 21, 2017
Fiji Meteorological Services
Gale Warning
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14F
6:00 AM FST February 22 2017
============================
Northeast of Tonga

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 14F (1000 hPa) located at 20.5S 174.2W has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. Position fair based on HIMAWARI-8 infrared/visible imagery and peripheral surface reports. The depression is reported as moving southeast at 17 knots.

Gale Force winds within 60-180 NM in the sector from northwest through north to southeast

Deep convection has increased and organization has improved in past 24 hours. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. System lies under an upper ridge in a low sheared environment with moderate divergence aloft. Cyclone circulation extends up to 500 HPA. Dvorak analysis based on 0.40 wrap yields DT=2.5. MET and PT agree. Final Dvorak based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Global models move the system southeast with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
==============
12 HRS: 22.9S 170.6W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 25.8S 166.0W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
266. Grifforzer
9:03 PM GMT on February 21, 2017
Fiji Meteorological Services
Gale Warning
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #5
TROPICAL CYCLONE BART, CATEGORY ONE (15F)
6:00 AM FST February 22 2017
================================
South of Rarotonga

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Bart, Category One (994 hPa) located at 24.1S 159.6W has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots. Position poor based on HIMAWARI-8 visible/infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 29 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
120 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
120 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Convection remains persistent. Organization has improved significantly in the past 24 hours. System lies south of an upper ridge in a moderate sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA. Outflow good to the east but restricted elsewhere. Sea surface temperature is around 28C. Dvorak analysis based on curved band pattern with 0.7 wrap yields DT=3.0, MET and PT agree. Final Dvorak based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24 HRS

Global models have picked up the system and move it southeast.

Forecast and Intensity
==============
12 HRS: 26.6S 156.2W - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 29.2S 152.6W - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 33.6S 144.9W - 45 knots (CAT 1)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
265. Grifforzer
6:27 PM GMT on February 21, 2017
Fiji Meteorological Services
Gale Warning
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14F
0:00 AM FST February 22 2017
============================
Southeast of Fiji
Northwest of Tonga

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 14F (998 hPa) located at 18.9S 178.2W has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. Position fair based on HIMAWARI-8 infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports. The depression is reported as moving southeast at 19 knots.

Deep convection has increased and organization has improved in past 24 hours. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. System lies under an upper ridge in a low sheared environment with moderate divergence aloft. Cyclone circulation extends up to 500 HPA. Dvorak analysis based on 0.30 wrap yeilds DT=2.0. MET=2.0 and PT=1.5. Final Dvorak based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Global models move the system southeast with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 21.4S 173.2W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 24.4S 168.0W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 27.3S 164.0W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
264. Grifforzer
2:53 PM GMT on February 21, 2017
Fiji Meteorological Services
Gale Warning
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #4
TROPICAL CYCLONE BART, CATEGORY ONE (15F)
0:00 AM FST February 22 2017
================================
Southwest of Rarotonga

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Bart, Category One (994 hPa) located at 22.6S 162.3W has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots. Position poor based on HIMAWARI-8 infrared/enhanced infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 19 knots.

Gale Force Winds
==============
120 NM from the center in eastern semi-circle
120 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Convection remains persistent. Organization has improved significantly in the past 24 hours. System lies south of an upper ridge in a moderate sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA. Outflow good to the east but restricted elsewhere. Sea surface temperature is around 28C. Dvorak analysis based on curved band pattern with 0.7 wrap yields DT=3.0, MET and PT agree. Final Dvorak based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24 HRS

Global models have picked up the system and move it southeast.

Forecast and Intensity
==============
12 HRS 24.9S 159.1W - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 27.3S 155.8W - 40 knots (CAT 1)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
263. Grifforzer
8:38 AM GMT on February 21, 2017
Fiji Meteorological Services
Gale Warning
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15F
18:00 PM FST February 21 2017
================================
West of Rarotonga

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 15F (998 hPa) located at 21.4S 164.3W has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. Position poor based on HIMAWARI-8 infrared/enhanced infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports. The depression is reported as moving east southeast at 20 knots.

Convection remains persistent near supposed low level circulation center. Organization continue to improve. 15F lies south of an upper ridge region in a moderate sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA. Outflow good to the east but restricted elsewhere. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. Dvorak analysis based on curved band pattern yields DT=2.5, MET and PT agree. Final Dvorak based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Global models have picked up the system and move it east-southeast with gradual intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 23.6S 160.7W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS 26.0S 157.6W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 29.4S 148.0W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
262. Grifforzer
6:14 AM GMT on February 21, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:15 PM WST February 21 2017
============================

A tropical low lies over open water in the Indian Ocean approximately 400 km southeast of the Cocos Islands. Over the next few days the system will continue to move west and move west of the region during Thursday. It is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred (19U) may move west over the northern Kimberley or Joseph Bonaparte Gulf on Friday or Saturday as a weak tropical low, however it is not expected to redevelop into a tropical cyclone.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
261. Grifforzer
6:12 AM GMT on February 21, 2017
tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:15 PM CST February 21 2017
==============================

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred crossed the coast near the Queensland border early this afternoon. The low is expected to remain slow moving near the coastline until Thursday when it will begin to move westwards across the Top End. If the low was to move over water during the next day or so, environmental conditions are no longer favorable for cyclone development.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
260. Grifforzer
2:54 AM GMT on February 21, 2017
Fiji Meteorological Services
Gale Warning
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15F
14:00 PM FST February 21 2017
================================

At 2:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 15F (1002 hPa) located at 20.8S 165.4W has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. Position poor based on HIMAWARI-8 visible imagery and peripheral surface reports. The depression is reported as moving east southeast at 20 knots.

Convection remains persistent over supposed low level circulation center. Organization continue to improve. 15F lies under an upper ridge region in a low sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA. Outflow good to the north and east but restricted elsewhere. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. Dvorak analysis based on curved band pattern yields DT=2.5, MET and PT agree. Final Dvorak based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Global models have picked up the system and move it east southeast with gradual intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
===============
12 HRS 22.9S 161.6W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS 25.1S 158.6W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 29.0S 150.5W - 40 knots (CAT 1)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
259. Grifforzer
1:51 AM GMT on February 21, 2017
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
9:00 AM FST February 21 2017
===========================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 12F (1002 hPa) located at 16.8S 170.6E is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on HIMAWARI-8 infrared/enhanced infrared and peripheral surface observations.

Convection suppressed and organization poor. System lies south of an upper ridge in a moderate sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Global models move 12F westwards with no further intensification.

Potential for this tropical disturbance to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is LOW.

System #2
--------------

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 14F (1001 hPa) located at 15.7S 178.4E is reported as moving southeast at 8 knots. Position poor based on HIMAWARI-8 infrared/enhanced infrared and peripheral surface observations.

Organization poor with convection persistent to the north of low level circulation center. System lies just north of an upper ridge in a low to moderate sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700hpa. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Global models have picked up the system and slowly move it southeastwards with slight intensification.

Potential for this tropical depression to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is LOW.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
258. Grifforzer
1:44 AM GMT on February 21, 2017
Fiji Meteorological Services
Gale Warning
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 15F
9:00 AM FST February 21 2017
================================

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 15F (1002 hPa) located at 20.2S 166.2W has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. Position poor based on HIMAWARI-8 visible imagery and peripheral surface reports. The depression is reported as moving east southeast at 20 knots.

Convection remains persistent over supposed low level circulation center. Organization continue to improve. 15F lies under an upper ridge region in a low sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA. Outflow good to the north and east but restricted elsewhere. Sea surface temperature is around 29C. Dvorak analysis based on curved band pattern yields DT=2.0, MET and PT agree. Final Dvorak based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Global models have picked up the system and move it east-southeast with gradual intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
================
12 HRS 22.4S 162.2W - 30 knots (Tropical Depression)
24 HRS 24.7S 159.2W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 28.9S 151.6W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
257. Grifforzer
8:51 PM GMT on February 20, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Advice #28
TROPICAL LOW, FORMER TC ALFRED (19U)
5:00 AM CST February 21 2017
==================================

At 3:30 AM CST, Tropical Low, Former Alfred (999 hPa) located at 16.1S 137.7E or 145 km east of Borroloola and 170 km west northwest of Mornington Island has 10 minute sustained wind of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving southeast at 2 knots.

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred has weakened near the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast, between Borroloola and the Northern Territory/Queensland border. The tropical low is expected to move slowly to the southeast, close to the coast during today. It is then forecast to turn towards the west near the Northern Territory/Queensland border and move across the Carpentaria District during Wednesday.

Winds near the center have eased below GALE FORCE.

HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLOODING and DAMAGING WIND GUSTS of 90-100 km/h may continue to occur over the far eastern Carpentaria District in the NT and in coastal and adjacent inland parts of the Gulf Country District in Queensland today.

Please refer to the latest Northern Territory and Queensland SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS, FLOOD WARNINGS and FLOOD WATCHES.

Abnormally high tides are expected about the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast during the next day or so, but the sea level is not forecast to exceed the highest tide of the year. Large waves may produce minor flooding along low lying coastal areas.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/2.5/W1.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity:
==================
12 HRS 16.4S 137.9E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS 16.5S 137.9E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS 16.1S 136.7E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 15.4S 133.0E - 20 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=================
The center was located using a combination of a 1300 UTC ASCAT pass, surface observations and satellite imagery. Animated near-infrared shows that a well defined circulation still persists over the far southern Gulf of Carpentaria.

Winds at Centre Island and Morninton Island during the last 6 hours have reported winds of 15-20 knots and easing. The ASCAT pass 1300UTC showed broad area of 25-30 knots and marginally 35 knots around the system. Recent satellite imagery has shown dry air dominating the environment and an absence of deep convection near the low level circulation center for more than 6 hours. FT=1.5, based on MET, while CI is maintained at 2.5.

As such, Tropical Cyclone Alfred was downgraded to a tropical low at 1800 UTC.

The tropical cyclone has moved slowly southeast under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the northeast and a mid-latitude trough to the southeast. A ridge building to the south is expected to slow the southeast movement today, causing the system to stall close to the coast.

Vertical wind shear is around 10-15 knots and is forecast to remain at this amount during the next day or two. Outflow is good in the southern semicircle due to an upper trough to the west. So there is the potential for renewed bursts of convection to develop near the low level circulation center while it remains over water. However significant dry air in the western and northern sectors of the circulation, together with land interaction means there is now only a low chance the system could redevelop into a tropical cyclone.

From later Tuesday and on Wednesday the remnant tropical low is forecast to track towards the west over land south of the Top End as southeasterly steering winds establish.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==========================
No Current Watches or Warning exist for the Northern Territory or Queensland region

This is the final tropical cyclone advice on TC Alfred from TCWC Darwin..
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
256. Grifforzer
6:51 PM GMT on February 20, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Advice #27
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALFRED, CATEGORY ONE (19U)
2:04 AM CST February 21 2017
==================================

At 12:30 AM CST, Tropical Cyclone Alfred, Category One located at 16.1S 137.5E or 130 km east of Borroloola and 190 km west northwest of Mornington Island has 10 minute sustained wind of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as slowly moving.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred is currently crossing the Gulf of Carpentaria coast, between Borroloola and the NT/Queensland border. The cyclone is expected to weaken into a tropical low overnight before heading west over the Carpentaria District later today and on Wednesday.

GALES with GUSTS to 90 km/h are currently being experienced over the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria coast, between Port McArthur in the Northern Territory to Mornington Island in Queensland, but not including Mornington Island and Borroloola.

HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLOODING may continue to occur over the far eastern Carpentaria District in the NT and in coastal and adjacent inland parts of the Gulf Country District in Queensland today.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected about the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast during the next day or so, but at this stage the sea level is not forecast to exceed the highest tide of the year. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING along low lying coastal areas.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for Port McArthur in the Northern Territory to Mornington Island in Queensland, not including Borroloola and Mornington Island
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
255. Grifforzer
2:55 PM GMT on February 20, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Advice #26
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALFRED, CATEGORY ONE (19U)
11:05 PM CST February 20 2017
==================================

At 9:30 PM CST, Tropical Cyclone Alfred, Category One (998 hPa) located at 16.1S 137.5E or 130 km east of Borroloola and 185 km west northwest of Mornington Island has 10 minute sustained wind of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 5 knots.

Tropical Cyclone Alfred is currently crossing the Gulf of Carpentaria coast, between Borroloola and the NT/Queensland border. The cyclone is expected to weaken into a tropical low overnight before heading west over the Carpentaria District later on Tuesday and on Wednesday.

GALES with GUSTS to 90 km/h are currently being experienced over the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria coast, between Port McArthur in the Northern Territory to Mornington Island in Queensland, but not including Mornington Island and Borroloola.

HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLOODING may continue to occur over the far eastern Carpentaria District in the NT and in coastal and adjacent inland parts of the Gulf Country District in Queensland tonight and Tuesday.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected about the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast during the next day or so, but at this stage the sea level is not forecast to exceed the highest tide of the year. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING along low lying coastal areas.

Gale Force Winds
============
50 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
30 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
40 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
40 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/2.5/W0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity:
==================
12 HRS 16.6S 137.4E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
24 HRS 16.8S 137.5E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS 16.4S 136.8E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 15.7S 133.8E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=================
Winds at Centre Island AWS near the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast have eased below 30 knots in the last few hours. The low level circulation center has been difficult to located due to extensive cirrus at 1200 UTC. Low level center location close to the Gulf of Carpentaria coast was based on interpolation from recent radar images, peripheral surface observations and SSMI'S microwave image at 0935UTC.

Recent satellite imagery has shown a significant decrease in deep cloud cover near the low level circulation center, with deep convection well removed to the east of the center. FT=1.5, based on MET and PAT, with CI held at 2.5 with clear signs of weakening.

The tropical cyclone has moved slowly south under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the northeast and a mid-latitude trough to the southeast. A ridge building to the south is expected to block further southward movement during Tuesday, causing the system to stall close to the coast. Vertical wind shear is around 15-20 knots and is expected to increase slightly under the influence of an upper trough to the southwest. Outflow is good in the southern semicircle. Dry air is being entrained into the western and northern sectors of the circulation, which together with land interaction is expected to cause further weakening overnight.

From later Tuesday and on Wednesday the remnant tropical low is forecast to track towards the west overland south of the Top End as southeasterly steering winds establish.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for Port McArthur in the Northern Territory to Mornington Island in Queensland, not including Borroloola and Mornington Island
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
254. Grifforzer
8:07 AM GMT on February 20, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:00 PM WST February 20 2017
=============================

A tropical low lies over open water in the Indian Ocean approximately 700 km south southwest of Christmas Island. Over the next three days the system will continue to move further west and weaken later in the week. It is not expected to develop into a tropical cyclone.

Another tropical low may move west into the Kimberley later in the week, however it is likely to remain weak over the weekend.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
253. Grifforzer
8:04 AM GMT on February 20, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Advice #24
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALFRED, CATEGORY ONE (19U)
4:57 PM CST February 20 2017
==================================

At 3:30 PM CST, Tropical Cyclone Alfred, Category One (994 hPa) located at 15.7S 137.2E or 105 km east northeast of Borroloola and 225 km south southeast of Alyangula has 10 minute sustained wind of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 3 knots.

Tropical cyclone Alfred is expected to remain at category 1 intensity as it moves very slowly south towards the Gulf of Carpentaria coast, between Borroloola and the NT/Queensland border. The cyclone is expected to make landfall later tonight before weakening into a tropical low later on Tuesday and then heading west over the Carpentaria District.

GALES with GUSTS to 110 km/h are currently being experienced at Centre Island and the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria coast, between Borroloola and the NT/Qld border.

GALES may extend along the Queensland coast to Mornington Island tonight, then possibly further east to Burketown during Tuesday if the system takes a more easterly track.

HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLOODING is occurring over the eastern Carpentaria District in the NT and in coastal and adjacent inland parts of the Gulf Country District in Queensland during today and Tuesday.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected about the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast during the next few days, but at this stage the sea level is not forecast to exceed the highest tide of the year. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING along low lying coastal areas.

Gale Force Winds
============
50 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
50 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
40 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
50 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity:
==================
12 HRS 16.0S 137.3E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 16.3S 137.3E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
48 HRS 16.4S 137.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 15.6S 134.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=================
The Centre Island AWS near the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast continues to report sustained southerly gales with gusts 45-50 knots. The low level circulation center is partially exposed to the northeast of the cold cloud, but was obscured by cirrus at 06UTC. The circulation center from radar and surface obs is located east of Centre Island, although the radar center appears to be displaced southeast of the surface center.

Recent satellite imagery has shown a significant decrease in deep cloud cover near the low level circulation center, with a large curved band east of the center. FT=3.0, based on DT with a 0.6 wrap curved band, MET=2.0 and PAT=2.5.

The tropical low has moved slowly south under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the northeast and a mid-latitude trough to the southeast. A ridge building to the south is expected to block further southward movement overnight or early Tuesday, causing the cyclone to stall close to the coast. Vertical wind shear is around 15-20 knots and is expected to increase slightly under the influence of an upper trough to the southwest. Outflow is good in the southern semicircle. Dry air is being entrained into the western sectors of the circulation, which together with land interaction is expected to cause a forecast weakening trend overnight.

From Wednesday the remnant tropical low is forecast to track towards the west overland south of the Top End.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for Port Roper in the NT to Mornington Island in Queensland

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect for Mornington Island to Burketown in Queensland, including Mornington Island
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
252. Grifforzer
4:59 AM GMT on February 20, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Advice #23
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALFRED, CATEGORY ONE (19U)
2:11 PM CST February 20 2017
==================================

At 12:30 PM CST, Tropical Cyclone Alfred, Category One located at 15.5S 137.2E or 115 km east northeast of Borroloola and 200 km south southeast of Alyangula has 10 minute sustained wind of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 3 knots.

Tropical cyclone Alfred is expected to remain at category 1 intensity as it moves very slowly southeast towards the Gulf of Carpentaria coast, between Borroloola and the NT/Queensland border. The cyclone is expected to remain slow moving near the coast before weakening into a tropical low by Wednesday and moving towards the west, over the Carpentaria District.

GALES with GUSTS to 110 km/h currently being experienced at Centre Island, on the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria coast. GALES with gusts to 110 km/h are expected to develop about coastal and island communities between Port McArthur and the NT/Qld border later today as the cyclone moves closer to the coast.

GALES may extend along the Queensland coast to Mornington Island overnight, then possibly further east to Burketown during Tuesday if the system takes a more easterly track.

HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLOODING is occurring over the eastern Carpentaria District in the NT and in coastal and adjacent inland parts of the Gulf Country District in Queensland during today and Tuesday.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected about the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast during the next few days, but at this stage the sea level is not forecast to exceed the highest tide of the year. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING along low lying coastal areas.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for Port Roper in the NT to Mornington Island in Queensland, including Groote Eylandt

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect for Mornington Island to Burketown, including Mornington Island
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
251. Grifforzer
2:51 AM GMT on February 20, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Advice #22
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALFRED, CATEGORY ONE (19U)
11:24 AM CST February 20 2017
==================================

At 9:30 AM CST, Tropical Cyclone Alfred, Category One (997 hPa) located at 15.4S 137.2E or 120 km northeast of Borroloola and 190 km south southeast of Alyangula has 10 minute sustained wind of 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 4 knots.

Tropical cyclone Alfred is expected to remain at category 1 intensity as it moves slowly southeast towards the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast. The cyclone is expected to cross the coast west of the NT / Queensland border early Tuesday.

GALES with GUSTS to 110 km/h currently being experienced at Centre Island, on the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria coast. GALES with gusts to 110 km/h are expected to develop about coastal and island communities between Port Roper and the NT/Qld border later today as the cyclone moves closer to the coast.

GALES may extend along the Queensland coast west of Mornington Island early on Tuesday if the system takes a more easterly track.

HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLOODING is occurring over the eastern Carpentaria District during today and Tuesday.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected about the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast during the next few days, but at this stage the sea level is not forecast to exceed the highest tide of the year. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING along low lying coastal areas.

Gale Force Winds
============
50 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
50 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
50 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
50 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity:
==================
12 HRS 15.9S 137.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 16.3S 137.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 16.9S 137.6E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 16.4S 136.0E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=================
The Centre Island AWS near the southern Gulf of Carpenataria coast has recorded a wind gust of 60 knots at 0100 UTC and sustained gales since 1800 UTC. The low level circulation center was located using surface obs and radar, moving southeast. The 2334 UTC ASCAT pass shows near-gales at around 50nm east of the low level circulation center.

Recent satellite imagery has shown a 2 degree diameter central cold cover pattern, with a large area of -80C cloud tops, possible indicative of interaction with the coast. FT=3.0 based on MET using developing trend, although a narrow cloud-free wedge suggests intensity closer to T3.5.

The tropical low is located is a balanced steering environment between a weakening mid-level ridge to the southeast and a high centered to the northeast, although a slow south southeast movement has become evident in the last 12 hours. An amplifying upper trough is forecast to weaken the mid-level ridge further today, resulting in a turn towards the south, closer to the coast. A new ridge building on Wednesday is expected to cause the system to stall near the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria coast, before steering the system westwards. Numerical weather prediction is in general agreement with this scenario.

Satellite shows good poleward outflow and also dry air advecting around the western side of the low. CIMSS shows low to moderate vertical wind shear over the area. Over the next 24-48 hours the approaching upper trough may cause shear to increase and curtail further development. There is the possibility of a cyclone formation within the next 12-24 hours. However from later today or during Tuesday, dry-air incursion in the mid-levels becomes another factor and as such the system is likely to weaken during Tuesday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for Port Roper to NT/Qld Border, including Groote Eylandt

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect for NT/Qld Border to Mornington Island, not including Mornington Island
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
250. Grifforzer
1:56 AM GMT on February 20, 2017
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
11:00 AM FST February 20 2017
============================

At 23:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 12F (1002 hPa) located at 18.2S 173.4E is reported as moving northwest at 12 knots. Position good based on HIMAWARI-8 visible imagery and peripheral surface observations.

Convection suppressed and organization poor. System lies under under a upper ridge in a moderate sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 500 HPA. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Global models move 12F northwestwards with no intensification.

Potential for this tropical disturbance to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is LOW.

System #2
---------------

At 23:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 14F (1002 hPa) located at 15.1S 175.7E is reported as moving east at 7 knots. Position fair based on HIMAWARI-8 visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Organization poor with convection persistent to the north of exposed low level circulation center. System lies just north of an upper ridge in a low to moderate sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Global models have picked up the system and slowly move it southeastwards with slight intensification.

Potential for this tropical disturbance to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is LOW.

System #3
---------------

At 23:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 15F (1005 hPa) located at 16.4S 172.6E is reported as slowly moving. Position poor based on HIMAWARI-8 visible imagery and peripheral surface observations.

Convection remains persistent but organization remains poor. System lies under an upper ridge in a low sheared environment. Cyclonic circulation extends up to 700 HPA.. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Global models have picked up the system and slowly move it southeastwards with some intensification.

Potential for this tropical disturbance to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 to 48 hours is LOW.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
249. Grifforzer
10:55 PM GMT on February 19, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Advice #21
Gale Warning
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALFRED, CATEGORY ONE (19U)
7:57 AM CST February 20 2017
==================================

At 6:30 AM CST, Tropical Cyclone Alfred, Category One (998 hPa) located at 15.0S 137.3E or 160 km northeast of Borroloola and 160 km southeast of Alyangula has 10 minute sustained wind of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 6 knots.

Tropical cyclone Alfred has formed in the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria and has recently commenced a track towards the southeast. Heavy rain and squally winds associated with the system are likely. The cyclone is forecast to weaken in the southern Gulf of Carpentaria prior to landfall during Tuesday.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 90 km/h have recently been observed at Centre Island, on the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria coast. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 100 km/h may develop in squalls along exposed areas of the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria coast and over Groote Eylandt during today.

Sustained GALES with gusts to 100 km/h may develop about coastal and island communities between Port Roper and the NT/Qld border later today as the cyclone moves closer to the coast.

GALES may extend along the Queensland coast west of Mornington Island early on Tuesday if the system takes a more easterly track.

HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLOODING is occurring over the eastern Carpentaria District during today and Tuesday.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected about the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast during the next few days, but at this stage the sea level is not forecast to exceed the highest tide of the year. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING along low lying coastal areas.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for Port Roper to NT/Qld Border, including Groote Eylandt

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect for NT/Qld Border to Mornington Island, not including Mornington Island
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
248. Grifforzer
8:16 PM GMT on February 19, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Advice #20
Gale Warning
TROPICAL LOW 19U
4:59 AM CST February 20 2017
==================================

At 3:30 AM CST, Tropical Low (999 hPa) located at 14.5S 137.0E or 95 km southeast of Alyangula and 190 km north northeast of Borroloola has 10 minute sustained wind of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving east at 4 knots.

The tropical low is located to the southeast of Groote Eylandt and is expected to turn towards the south today. Heavy rain and squally winds associated with the system are likely and the low may develop into a tropical cyclone today. The system is forecast to weaken near the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria coast during Tuesday.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS of 85-90 km/h were observed during Sunday afternoon and overnight at Centre Island, on the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria coast. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 90 km/h may redevelop in squalls along exposed areas of the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria coast and over Groote Eylandt today.

Sustained GALES with gusts to 100 km/h may develop about coastal and island communities between Port McArthur and Cape Shield, including Groote Eylandt, as the system develops. GALES may develop between Port McArthur and the NT/Qld border later today as the system moves closer to the coast.

GALES may extend along the Queensland coast west of Mornington Island early on Tuesday if the system takes a more southeasterly track.

HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLOODING is likely over the southeast Arnhem and eastern Carpentaria districts and around the southern Gulf of Carpentaria during today and Tuesday.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected about the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast during the next few days, but at this stage the sea level is not forecast to exceed the highest tide of the year. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING along low lying coastal areas.

Gale Force Winds
============
60 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity:
==================
12 HRS 14.8S 137.3E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 15.2S 137.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 16.0S 137.3E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 15.8S 136.1E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=================
The tropical low is located using surrounding surface observations. Centre Island on the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria coast reported sustained gales for periods between 0330Z and 0700Z yesterday and again more recently from 1800Z this morning, confirming the likelihood that gales are persisting beneath this in the southeast and southwest quadrants.

Recent satellite imagery has shown increased convection over the system with improved banding and increasing curvature with a wrap of 0.3-0.4, giving a Dvorak 0f 2-2.5.

The tropical low is located is a balanced steering environment between a weakening mid-level ridge to the southeast and a high centered to the northeast, although a slow eastwards movement has become evident in the last 6 hours. An amplifying upper trough is forecast to weaken the mid-level ridge further today, resulting in a turn towards the south. A new ridge building on Wednesday will cause the system to stall near the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria coast, before steering the system westwards. Numerical weather prediction is in general agreement with this scenario.

Satellite shows good poleward outflow and also dry air advecting around the western side of the low. CIMSS shows low to moderate vertical wind shear over the area. Over the next 24-48 hours the approaching upper trough may cause shear to increase and curtail further development. There is the possibility of a cyclone formation within the next 12-24 hours. However from later today or during Tuesday, dry-air incursion in the mid-levels becomes another factor and as such the system is likely to weaken during Tuesday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for Cape Shield to NT/Qld Border

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect for NT/Qld Border to Mornington Island, not including Mornington Island
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
247. Grifforzer
6:30 PM GMT on February 19, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Advice #19
Gale Warning
TROPICAL LOW 19U
1:55 AM CST February 20 2017
==================================

At 12:30 AM CST, Tropical Low located at 14.5S 136.8E or 85 km south southeast of Alyangula and 185 km north northeast of Borroloola has 10 minute sustained wind of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving east northeast at 4 knots.

The tropical low is located over the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria, between Groote Eylandt and Borroloola. It is expected to be slow moving before turning towards the south during Monday. Heavy rain and squally winds associated with the low are likely and the low may develop into a tropical cyclone during Monday. The system is forecast to weaken near the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria coast during Tuesday.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS of 85-90 km/h were observed during Sunday afternoon at Centre Island, on the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria coast, but have since moved off the coast. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS to 90 km/h may redevelop in squalls along exposed areas of the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria coast and over Groote Eylandt during Monday.

Sustained GALES with gusts to 100 km/h may develop about coastal and island communities between Port McArthur and Cape Shield, including Groote Eylandt, during Monday as the cyclone develops. GALES may develop between Port McArthur and the NT/Qld border later on Monday as the system moves closer to the coast.

GALES may extend along the Queensland coast west of Mornington Island early on Tuesday if the system takes a more southeasterly track.

HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLOODING is likely over the southeast Arnhem and eastern Carpentaria districts and around the southern Gulf of Carpentaria during Monday and Tuesday.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected about the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast during the next few days, but at this stage the sea level is not forecast to exceed the highest tide of the year. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING along low lying coastal areas.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for Cape Shield to NT/Qld Border

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect for NT/Qld Border to Mornington Island, not including Mornington Island
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
246. Grifforzer
2:39 PM GMT on February 19, 2017
RSMC Reunion
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
16:00 PM RET February 19 2017
==========================

The center of the residual circulation of EX-DINEO is located near 20.0S 16.0E at 1000Z in Namibia. Convective activity is concentrated in a wide northwestern semi-circle under the influence of a moderate upper shear. Last night, there was still heavy rainfall around Ex-Dineo. The rain is now easing off and is likely to stop by tomorrow as EX-DINEO should dissipate for good.

The available monthly forecasts are in good agreement and suggest the arrival of a new active MJO phase by March
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
245. Grifforzer
2:36 PM GMT on February 19, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Advice #18
Gale Warning
TROPICAL LOW 19U
10:59 PM CST February 19 2017
==================================

At 9:30 PM CST, Tropical Low (999 hPa) located at 14.5S 136.6E or 75 km south southeast of Alyangula and 180 km north of Borroloola has 10 minute sustained wind of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving north northeast at 6 knots.

The tropical low is located over the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria, between Groote Eylandt and Borroloola. It is expected to be slow moving overnight before turning towards the south during Monday. Heavy rain and squally winds associated with the low are likely and the low may develop into a tropical cyclone during Monday. The system is forecast to weaken near the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria coast during Tuesday.

GALES with DAMAGING wind gusts to 85-90 km/h were observed during Sunday afternoon at Centre Island, on the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria coast, but have since eased along the coast. DAMAGING wind gusts with gusts to 90 km/h may redevelop in squalls along exposed areas of the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria coast and over Groote Eylandt overnight and during Monday.

Sustained GALES with gusts to 100 km/h may develop on Groote Eylandt during Monday. GALES may develop about coastal and island communities between Cape Shield and the NT/Qld border overnight or during Monday if the low develops closer to the coast or takes a more westerly track.

GALES may extend along the Queensland coast west of Mornington Island overnight Monday or during Tuesday, if the system takes a more southeasterly track.

HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLOODING is likely over the southeast Arnhem district and around the southern Gulf of Carpentaria during Monday.

ABNORMALLY HIGH TIDES are expected about the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast during the next few days, but at this stage the sea level is not forecast to exceed the highest tide of the year. Large waves may produce MINOR FLOODING along low lying coastal areas.

Gale Force Winds
============
50 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
50 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/2.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity:
==================
12 HRS 14.5S 136.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 14.8S 137.0E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 15.8S 137.1E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 15.7S 136.9E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=================
The tropical low is located using surrounding surface observations. Centre island reported sustained gales between 0330Z and 0700Z. A 0947Z microwave pass showed convection wrapping into the low level circulation center from the southeast and southwest quadrants and it is assumed that gales may be persisting beneath this convection.

Recent satellite imagery has shown a renewed burst of convection over the low level circulation center, although little curvature is evident. Dvorak analysis FT=1.5, CI=2.0, based on MET as DT was not possible.

Movement has slowed in the last 6 hours. The tropical low is located is a balanced steering environment between a weakening mid-level ridge to the southeast and a high centered to the NE. An amplifying upper trough is forecast to weaken the mid-level ridge further during Monday, resulting in a turn towards the south. A new ridge building on Wednesday will cause the system to stall near the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria coast, before steering the system westwards. Numerical weather prediction is in general agreement with this scenario.

Satellite shows good poleward outflow and also dry air adverting around the western side of the low. CIMSS shows low to moderate vertical wind shear over the area. Over the next 24-48 hours the approaching upper trough may cause shear to increase and curtail further development. There is the possibility of a cyclone formation within the next 12-24 hours. However from later Monday or during Tuesday, dry-air incursion in the mid-levels becomes another factor which could weaken the system, and as such the system is likely to weaken during Tuesday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for Cape Shield to NT/Qld Border

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect for NT/Qld Border to Mornington Island, not including Mornington Island
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
244. Grifforzer
7:57 AM GMT on February 19, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
Tropical Cyclone Advice #16
Gale Warning
TROPICAL LOW 19U
5:00 PM CST February 19 2017
==================================

At 3:30 PM CST, Tropical Low (999 hPa) located at 15.0S 136.3E or 120 km north of Borroloola and 130 km south of Alyangula has 10 minute sustained wind of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving north northwest at 3 knots.

The tropical low is located off the Gulf coast to the northwest of Centre Island. It is expected to move slowly in a northerly direction overnight over the southwest Gulf of Carpentaria and may develop into a tropical cyclone overnight or early Monday. The system is expected to turn towards the south during Monday and is forecast to cross the coast to the west of the NT/QLD border late on Tuesday or early Wednesday.

GALES with gusts to 90 km/h may occur in squalls along exposed areas of the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast. Sustained GALES with gusts to 100 km/h may develop on Groote Eylandt overnight or early Monday.

GALES may develop about coastal and island communities between Cape Shield and the NT/Qld border overnight or during Monday if the low develops closer to the coast or takes a more westerly track. GALES may extend along the Queensland coast to Burketown, including Mornington Island late on Monday or during Tuesday, if the system takes a more southeasterly track.

HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLOODING is likely over eastern Carpentaria and southeast Arnhem districts in the Northern Territory during today and Monday. HEAVY RAIN which may lead to FLOODING is likely in the Gulf Country District, west of Normanton in Queensland today and Monday.

Abnormally high tides are expected about the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast during the next few days, but at this stage the sea level is not forecast to exceed the highest tide of the year. Large waves are likely along low lying coastal areas.

Dvorak Intensity:

Forecast and Intensity:
==================
12 HRS 14.6S 136.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 14.7S 136.6E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 15.7S 136.6E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 16.4S 136.7E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
=================
The tropical low is located using surface observations with a consistent southeast wind on Centre Island and neighboring locations. Centre Island has been reporting intermittent gales since 0400Z. Satellite and microwave imagery does not show a clear low-level center but is supportive of the offshore location just to the north of Centre Island. Recent satellite imagery has shown a broken band of convection flaring to the south and east of the low-level center, with weak curvature evident. Dvorak analysis is yields a DT of 2.5 based on curved band wrap of 0.4, however this may be a short-lived feature and therefore confidence is low. FT based on PAT 2.0.

Recent movement in a north to northeast direction is due to a middle-level ridge to the southwest. An amplifying upper trough is forecast to break the mid-level ridge on Monday, resulting in a turn towards the south, with the system forecast to make landfall along the southern Gulf of Carpentaria coast during Tuesday or early Wednesday. Numerical weather prediction is in general agreement with this scenario for the next 24 hours, although there is increasing divergence in the system's track beyond then, with some models tracking the system toward the west.

CIMSS satellite winds indicate that the system lies in an environment favorable for development with low to moderate vertical wind shear and sea surface temperatures are sufficiently warm at 30 degrees. However, the system is not vertically aligned, due to the recent interaction with land, and so its development rate has recently stalled. Over the next 24-48 hours the approaching upper trough may cause shear to increase and curtail further development. Cyclone formation remains possible within the next 12-24 hours. Later Monday or during Tuesday, dry-air incursion in the mid-levels becomes another factor which could weaken the system, and so development beyond Category 1 intensity is not considered likely.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
==========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for Cape Shield to NT/Qld Border

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH is in effect for NT/Qld Border to Burketown
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
243. Grifforzer
6:16 AM GMT on February 19, 2017
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
2:06 PM WST February 19 2017
==============================

A tropical low lies over open water over 750 km northwest of the Northwest Cape. Over the next few days the system will continue to move further west away from the Western Australia mainland into the central Indian Ocean and is unlikely to develop into a tropical cyclone.
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:

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