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Ambiguity

By: Astrometeor , 9:31 PM GMT on August 14, 2016

Astro's Thesis on Ambiguity

Chapter One: Initial Blog Comments

Quoting 76. TropicalAnalystwx13:

There are no guarantees that this run comes to fruition, or even that one of these waves develops. But as I said yesterday, it's mid-August. Things will get interesting even in the face of hostile conditions (some dust, sinking air aloft, etc.) We saw a borderline Category 4 in the central Atlantic last year among the strongest El Nino on record.


Quoting 90. Astrometeor:



Borderline C4? Joaquin was not borderline.


Commence firestorm of replies (sheesh guys).

Quoting 91. HurricaneFan:


He's talking about Danny


Quoting 92. Articuno:



I think he means is borderline from being a CAT 5


^That I could see (in deference to my original comment).

Quoting 96. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Joaquin was in the central Atlantic? I was referring to Danny.

Borderline is probably not the correct word though, since it didn't hit Cat 4. Peaked as an upper-end (110kt) Cat 3.


Was it? Let's find out.

Quoting 115. SLU:



You need to beef up on your hurricane history.






Accidental mistakes due to someone's not-so-clear statements do not necessitate me needing to "beef up" on hurricane history.

Quoting 119. CaribBoy:



Danny was.


Ah, so this is who Cody meant.

Chapter Two: The evidence.

Now I put forth two images of concrete evidence.

Image #1:

 photo Joaquin was Central Atlantic_zps947h0kiz.png

Note the line of demarcation and also the tip of Cuba and the nice horn-shaped area that will then be compared in Image #2.

Image #2:

 photo Central Atlantic from NOAA SSD_zpskpz1pi9t.png

Now compare. Note the tip of the island nation of Cuba.

Conclusion:

According to the track map on the Wikipedia entry file of Joaquin, and the Satellite and Information Service of NOAA, the hurricane's track started out in, and never ventured west of the Central Atlantic satellite box. Ergo, I concur that my assumption in my earlier comment that the posted was referencing Joaquin was a fair assumption to make. Ambiguity, even in the most gentle and friendly of circumstances is a mistake.

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The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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66. WunderAlertBot (Admin)
10:35 PM GMT on March 13, 2017
Astrometeor has created a new entry.
65. BaltimoreBrian
3:51 AM GMT on March 04, 2017
Geometry illustrated in a 1792 textbook. Perhaps geometry would be more understood if illustrated the same way today. But in these politically correct times, perhaps not.

A Sphere, Projecting Against a Plane by James Gillray, 1792.

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64. BaltimoreBrian
12:59 AM GMT on February 10, 2017
Dallas County Iowa failed to report 5,842 votes cast in 2016 election

to summarize:

* 5,482 absentee ballots were set aside, not counted, and forgotten until February 1st.

* This was 13% of the total voter turnout in Dallas County, Iowa

* Trump received 2,780 votes

* Clinton received 2,587 voes (Trump netted 193 votes)

* Fortunately, all local races in the county still have the same winners.

* State law does not provide for the votes to be added to the official total.

*
If the votes were added, Iowa state turnout would rise from 69.0% of eligible voters to 69.3%

* If any races had their results changed, because the vote had been certified and office-holders sworn in, there is no prevision for changing the results.

What do you think should happen to the county officials who let this happen?
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
63. BaltimoreBrian
1:56 AM GMT on February 02, 2017
Boy Scouts of America will allow transgender children to join

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62. BaltimoreBrian
4:02 AM GMT on January 31, 2017
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61. Astrometeor
5:26 AM GMT on January 27, 2017
Quoting 59. FLwolverine:

"Declining the post" is probably a euphemism for "was asked to go away". She would always be less effective because the plagiarism issue would be raised repeatedly and would always be a distraction, and because some people would always distrust her and doubt her honesty. She might want to move on, but the media and Trump's critics most likely wouldn't let her (and I wouldn't either; that degree of plagiarism is disgraceful).


FL, by your logic Donald Trump should resign from his position. :) Which I would support.
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60. BaltimoreBrian
12:37 AM GMT on January 25, 2017
January 24, 1908, Boy Scouts founded by Robert Baden-Powell, who was also big into espionage via nature sketches...

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59. FLwolverine
4:38 AM GMT on January 23, 2017
Quoting 54. Astrometeor:



I saw that. Kinda weird that plagiarism charges would stop someone from accepting a post. Like, just admit it and move on. But okay, whatever.
"Declining the post" is probably a euphemism for "was asked to go away". She would always be less effective because the plagiarism issue would be raised repeatedly and would always be a distraction, and because some people would always distrust her and doubt her honesty. She might want to move on, but the media and Trump's critics most likely wouldn't let her (and I wouldn't either; that degree of plagiarism is disgraceful).
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
58. BaltimoreBrian
2:57 AM GMT on January 23, 2017
From Headline to Photograph, a Fake News Masterpiece

Probability questions:

What is the probability that Cameron Harris will have a six-figure salary as a political consultant within five years?

What is the probability that Carmeron Harris will be more successful in politics than Cody?
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57. BaltimoreBrian
12:33 AM GMT on January 19, 2017
An Odd and Obsolete 1884 Nickname Map of the American States



North Carolina: 'tar heel' and Michigan: 'wolverine' are familiar.

Some are really bad though.

Tennessee: the whelp state
South Carolina: the weasel state
Illinois: the sucker state

Missouri: the puke state.
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56. BaltimoreBrian
12:32 AM GMT on January 19, 2017
I did pretty well at drawing the graphs, always got the trend right but didn't do so well on some inflection points.
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55. Astrometeor
11:25 PM GMT on January 17, 2017
Quoting 51. BaltimoreBrian:

You Draw It: What Got Better or Worse During Obama's Presidency


I did good on Illegal Mexicans, unemployment rate, and basically nailed the national debt.
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54. Astrometeor
10:32 PM GMT on January 17, 2017
Quoting 53. BaltimoreBrian:

Trump national security spokeswoman Monica Crowley to forgo post amid plagiarism charges


I saw that. Kinda weird that plagiarism charges would stop someone from accepting a post. Like, just admit it and move on. But okay, whatever.
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53. BaltimoreBrian
1:36 AM GMT on January 17, 2017
52. BaltimoreBrian
12:25 AM GMT on January 17, 2017
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51. BaltimoreBrian
12:22 AM GMT on January 17, 2017
You Draw It: What Got Better or Worse During Obama's Presidency
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50. Astrometeor
6:22 AM GMT on January 16, 2017
Quoting 49. BaltimoreBrian:

A couple days old but the best summation I have seen of the current Trump/Russia/Intelligence imbroglio:

What We Know and Don't Know About the Trump-Russia Dossier


Thanks Brian. That helps a lot considering the news I've seen is "We don't know anything BUT it's big news."

Edit: Check your g-mail.
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49. BaltimoreBrian
8:29 PM GMT on January 14, 2017
A couple days old but the best summation I have seen of the current Trump/Russia/Intelligence imbroglio:

What We Know and Don't Know About the Trump-Russia Dossier
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48. Astrometeor
5:49 AM GMT on January 13, 2017
Quoting 47. BaltimoreBrian:

Can States Make People Pay Even When Their Convictions Are Overturned?


Colorado is being dumb. Do they honestly think they can say "Hey. Give us money because you were....err...technically not guilty...but we don't like you." and get away with it?

Oral argument was heard on Endrew F v. Douglas County School District. IEPs and standards This strikes home to me, I was on an IEP growing up since I was intellectually disabled...when you are smart and gifted, that makes you disabled. Chew on that one. Anyways. This kid has autism. He gets placed on an IEP which is what everyone does per federal law. He learns nothing and gets in trouble at school. Parents, dissatisfied, transfer him to a private school...where he learns quickly and tremendously and is praised by teachers. Parents seek a monetary claim against the school district, saying the district failed to provide a free education under IDEA (Individuals with Disabilities Education Act) and are thus required to refund tuition to the family. District disagrees. Lawsuit. Family has (surprisingly) lost at every juncture of case. Of note, DOE (D. of Education not Energy) has filed a brief in support of family.

I would tend to agree with the family. I can't see how anyone can possibly argue that the kid was given an appropriate education when he struggled and failed to learn anything of consequence. He shifts schools and all of a sudden does much better. The district, like so many other districts across the nation, have failed not only Drew, but tens of thousands of kids. Tuition should be refunded, and the 10th Circuit should be given a new standard on education for them to learn and understand, as well as the school district at fault here.

Imagine if the parents couldn't afford a private school? The district can not possibly claim that their plan was proficient in teaching him. It cannot in good faith claim that. Ridiculous.
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47. BaltimoreBrian
12:47 AM GMT on January 13, 2017
Can States Make People Pay Even When Their Convictions Are Overturned?
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46. BaltimoreBrian
12:26 AM GMT on December 06, 2016
Emerald ash borer devastates Tennessee forests The article claims Tennessee has 261 million ash trees. Tennessee has an area of 42,143 square miles according to Wikipedia. That works out to 6,193 ash trees per square mile, or 9.68 ash trees per acre. Sorry Nashville Ledger, but I don't believe that. I should have checked the article more carefully.
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45. Astrometeor
8:21 PM GMT on December 05, 2016
Quoting 43. BaltimoreBrian:

Did the emerald ash borer cause deadwood that helped make the Tennessee fires worse?

Emerald ash borer devastates Tennessee forests

Effects of climate on emerald ash borer mortality and the potential for ash survival in North America


I didn't know we had that many ash trees. I thought that was a western problem. Oak and maple are the trees I grew up around.

Quoting 44. BaltimoreBrian:

The bizarre app of the day: Putin vs. Aliens




Next up Trump v. Aliens ;) ;) And they might not be the aliens of the space kind. :O
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44. BaltimoreBrian
11:26 PM GMT on December 04, 2016
The bizarre app of the day: Putin vs. Aliens

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43. BaltimoreBrian
2:23 AM GMT on December 01, 2016
Did the emerald ash borer cause deadwood that helped make the Tennessee fires worse?

Emerald ash borer devastates Tennessee forests

Effects of climate on emerald ash borer mortality and the potential for ash survival in North America
Member Since: December 31, 1969 Posts: Comments:
42. Astrometeor
9:08 PM GMT on November 26, 2016
*Ohio state QB overshoots player, Michigan defender barely touches the guy* "Oh, that's a pass interference call"

*Michigan QB throws on target, Ohio State defender is dragging Michigan guy to the ground* "Huh? I didn't see anyone"

^Referees. >.< Then on 4th and 1, OSU QB clearly doesn't even reach the first down line, and yet with 10 seconds of reviewing (instead of giving a proper look), the refs give OSU a first down.

Sad.

Roll Tide. I hope Alabama beats Auburn, beats Florida, and meets OSU in playoffs and crushes them.
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41. BaltimoreBrian
10:14 PM GMT on October 28, 2016
The Playborhood
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40. BaltimoreBrian
4:07 PM GMT on October 24, 2016
Back to work Nathan! Strike's over!
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39. Astrometeor
1:34 AM GMT on October 20, 2016
Teachers' union called a strike today. All of my classes but one were cancelled. Teachers have been without a contract since June of last year. Here's what the state wants: Link. Haven't seen what the teachers want.

List of all teachers whose classes are postponed indefinitely

NYT

NPR

Teachers formed a picket line today but most left fairly early on in the morning, around 10 or so. Students took over from 11, chanting and demanding PASSHE to agree to the union's side of the arguments.

Residence halls are open, and food is still open.
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38. BaltimoreBrian
12:00 AM GMT on October 13, 2016
A bizarre but hopefully educational political story:

How One 19-Year-Old Illinois African-American Man Is Distorting National Polling Averages
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37. BaltimoreBrian
1:54 AM GMT on October 12, 2016
36. Astrometeor
1:55 AM GMT on October 03, 2016
Quoting 33. BaltimoreBrian:

From the article in comment #30:

"After the trial was over, two other jurors submitted sworn statements describing what he had said during deliberations."

The judge couldn't declare a mistrial, because the trial was over. So it is a question of the secrecy of jury deliberations vs the rights of the defendant. The judge should have been informed immediately after the one juror made those remarks, but the other jurors didn't do that. What should happen then?


What secrecy if we have sworn statements? I'd declare basically a mistrial (I didn't know the trial still had to be ongoing) and re-try. Our system is based on defendant's rights, not prosecutorial rights.
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35. Astrometeor
1:53 AM GMT on October 03, 2016




Image Credit: Frankie Lucena Link

On Oct. 1st, Earth weather met space weather above Hurricane Matthew. As the giant storm system was approaching the Greater Antilles, Frankie Lucena of Puerto Rico photographed red sprites shooting up from the thunderclouds:

Sprites are a strange and beautiful form of lightning that shoot up from the tops of electrical storms. They reach all the way up to the edge of space alongside meteors, auroras, and noctilucent clouds. Some researchers believe cosmic rays help trigger sprites, making them a true space weather phenomenon.

Seeing sprites above a hurricane is rare. Most hurricanes don't even have regular lightning because the storms lack a key ingredient for electrical activity: vertical winds. (For more information read the Science@NASA article "Electric Hurricanes.") But Matthew is not a typical hurricane. It's one of the most powerful in recent years, briefly reaching Category 5 at about the time Lucena photographed the sprites. Perhaps extra-strong winds in the vicinity of the storm set the stage for upward-reaching bolts.

Sprite photographers across the Caribbean and the southeastern USA should be alert for more as the storm system approaches the mainland:


Originally on Spacweather.com
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34. BaltimoreBrian
1:24 AM GMT on September 29, 2016
Follow this rule Nathan :)

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33. BaltimoreBrian
3:55 AM GMT on September 28, 2016
From the article in comment #30:

"After the trial was over, two other jurors submitted sworn statements describing what he had said during deliberations."

The judge couldn't declare a mistrial, because the trial was over. So it is a question of the secrecy of jury deliberations vs the rights of the defendant. The judge should have been informed immediately after the one juror made those remarks, but the other jurors didn't do that. What should happen then?
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32. Astrometeor
5:42 PM GMT on September 27, 2016
Quoting 30. BaltimoreBrian:

Racial Bias Among Jurors at Heart of Supreme Court Case Your thoughts, Nathan?


The setup of the case seems to be Secrecy of Jury Deliberations vs Rights of the Defendant. I don't think that's how the case should be looked at. What happened here is a juror was selected who had an obvious bias against the defendant. This is a failure of jury selection. I have no idea what questions are criteria were asked of the juror, but clearly the court failed to select the proper jury.

I would've thought the proper recourse would've been to declare a mistrial here. In Nashville, we had a Vanderbilt rape case get declared a mistrial after a juror failed to disclose that he was sexually assaulted as a child. What is the difference between that case and this current one apart from subject matter? This juror has failed to disclose that he automatically decided that the defendant was guilty. The defendant was never given a fair trial, not in this case. They should just start all over on the misdemeanors he was convicted of.
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31. BaltimoreBrian
4:59 AM GMT on September 23, 2016
We Gave Four Good Pollsters the Same Raw Data. They Had Four Different Results. Yes, there are 5 poll results given in the graphic on top. The New York Times poll result is on the far right.
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30. BaltimoreBrian
11:26 PM GMT on September 22, 2016
Racial Bias Among Jurors at Heart of Supreme Court Case Your thoughts, Nathan?
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29. BaltimoreBrian
4:03 AM GMT on September 09, 2016
Nathan's roommate decides to wake up Nathan at 7 a.m. on Saturday ;)

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28. BaltimoreBrian
9:59 PM GMT on September 05, 2016
27. BaltimoreBrian
5:11 AM GMT on September 05, 2016
Libertarian Gary Johnson Polls at 10 Percent. Who Are His Supporters?
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26. Astrometeor
3:24 AM GMT on September 05, 2016
Quoting 25. BaltimoreBrian:

Click cartoon to expand:




Basically. Great cartoon. Very provocative too. Thanks Brian.
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25. BaltimoreBrian
3:15 AM GMT on September 05, 2016
Click cartoon to expand:

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24. Astrometeor
3:30 AM GMT on August 30, 2016
"I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it." -Evelyn Beatrice Hall Ms. Hall

On the Colin Kaepernick issue. Although he does bring up a lot points, my posting is more to the action itself and the response it received. The criticism of Kaepernick sitting for the national anthem is totally unwarranted and misunderstands the US Constitution. Criticism of the First Amendment is especially dangerous. None of us realize how important that right is, unless we have experienced it being taken away. He did not in anyway offend the troops, I'd argue his action of protesting is a more beautiful example of what the military protects, and what we're (or at least I) am grateful for (*nods at Brian*), and should be applauded instead of discouraged.

-------

Had a cake in a mug (high density cake, woah), a giant cookie (8" diameter) with three scoops of vanilla ice cream and a giant sparkler (free!!!), and now have cupcakes courtesy of my new best friend at college. :)
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23. BaltimoreBrian
11:16 PM GMT on August 27, 2016
This day in history, August 27th:

1883: Krakatoa explodes and triggers tsunamis which killed at least 36,000 people

1908: LBJ, the 36th president of the United States, is born

1928: The Kellogg-Briand Pact, outlawing war, was signed by the United States, France and Germany, with most other countries signing soon after.

1955: The first edition of the Guinness Book of World Records is published.

1979: The IRA assassinates Lord Louis Mountbatten, second cousin of Queen Elizabeth, with a 50 lb. bomb. The IRA also kills 18 UK paratroopers in Northern Ireland later that day.
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22. BaltimoreBrian
12:02 AM GMT on August 27, 2016
The number one song when Nathan was born, August 27, 1996. This song was #1 during more than 1% of Nathan's lifetime.

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21. BaltimoreBrian
11:51 PM GMT on August 26, 2016
Help Nate get the most cake!

Nathan, whose birthday is tomorrow, asks his mother to make him a cake. His mother is very particular (she is a constructive set theorist, which explains a lot) and she asks him a to solve this puzzle to design a three-layer cake that fits under a hollow glass cone she has on her desk. (The cone was given to her as a prize for solving an obscure theorem long ago.) Nathan is to solve for the cake filling up the maximum amount of volume under the cone possible and that the layers of the cake have straight vertical sides. (Again, she's very particular.) What are the thicknesses of the three layers of the cake in terms of the height of the glass cone? What percentage of the cone’s volume does the cake fill?

An example of what the cake might look like:

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20. Astrometeor
5:34 AM GMT on August 24, 2016
Grand Rapids records 6 tornadoes On the map you can see Holland, Michigan. My family stopped there on our way to Sleeping Bear National Lakeshore. Holland styles itself after the country, with a windmill that the nation personally gifted to the city. Great place with great food and shoes. ;)
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19. Astrometeor
4:50 AM GMT on August 24, 2016
Quoting 18. BaltimoreBrian:

Nashville: The new mayor of Music City's formula for growth


This growth spurt started during Karl Dean's tenure. He was a bold fellow, broke ground on the convention center (that we didn't need) before the city council approved it. There's a pedestrian bridge being built (which we didn't need) in an area of town that makes you go "What! How! Where! Why! Who!" because there's a bridge support sitting in between two businesses (presumably in talks to being sold to the city). They're building big condos left and right all over one side of downtown, right next to the projects. Wonder how long it will be before the poor projects area is forced out. There's already talk of forcing the recycling plant to move, because these young wealthy people who style themselves as green hipsters don't like how ugly a recycling plant looks and sounds.

Meanwhile, the schools suck, the parks are underfunded, poverty is (yea like the article noted) high, we have terrible traffic. We're smaller than Atlanta, but it won't be long until we match Atlanta. Nashville is in only one county, but a lot of the workers commute to and from all neighboring counties (which is what nixed the "local workers bill" thing).

Something like 69 foreign languages spoken fluently when I was at MLK, which is undergoing an expansion project because we the parents, students, and supporters of the school forced the issue against the city. We are very proud of the Kurds being here, and I don't notice any Islamophobia, unlike our southerly neighbors in Murfreesboro (court battle over mosque).

And Nashville is utterly UNPREPARED for the Great American Solar Eclipse, unlike multiple other cities. Sad. We're growing, which I guess is good, but the jeans are getting tighter and tighter and we're refusing to buy new pants.
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18. BaltimoreBrian
12:01 AM GMT on August 24, 2016
Nashville: The new mayor of Music City's formula for growth
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17. BaltimoreBrian
12:14 AM GMT on August 21, 2016
And now a post totally unrelated to that joke I made earlier. Or is it?

Canada's Dick Assman of David Letterman TV Fame Dies at 82

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16. BaltimoreBrian
1:04 AM GMT on August 20, 2016
It was! And it didn't matter :)

The 1988 election was my first presidential election I participated in. Like yours it happened at the latest possible date, November 8. And the same dreary editorializing about how nasty the campaign was. Although Trump/Clinton really is nastier..

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About Astrometeor

Age: 20, b-day is 8/27. Graduate of MLK High in Nashville, TN. Attends MU in PA. Loves football, soccer, Frisbee, Scouts, Science Olympiad.

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