marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 419 am PDT Tue Mar 28 2017
.Forecast discussion...Major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
Due to a system upgrade, the next offshore and high seas text forecasts will be issued by the National Weather Service forecast office in Honolulu, Hawaii.
----------------------------------------------------------------- Previous discussion...
The ascat pass from 05z indicates an area of gale winds across the inner offshore waters off the Southern California coast. The gradient will weaken this morning to below gale. Further north a weak cold front is approaching the pz5 waters with 20-30 kt in advance of the frontal boundary. A ridge axis extends NE-SW from the SW corner of Oregon across the region. An altimeter pass from 03z shows seas near 17 ft just west of the pz5 waters. This agrees well with buoy 46036 which reported 15 ft at 08z. The overall forecast pattern hasn't changed much over the last few model cycles. The northern stream will remain progressive as a series of short-waves track east then northeast around the periphery of the ridge axis. This will result in primarily SW flow over much of the pz5 waters. Further south the pattern will continue very stable as the ridge/trough combination persists during the week. The gradient will fluctuate...occasionally reaching gale force...mainly during the period from Thursday night through Friday. A cold front moving se into the California waters will disrupt the pattern Wednesday night into Thursday. Once the front clears the waters the pressure gradient will strengthen again along the California coast with gales extending north in the vicinity of Point Reyes.
The 00z global models are in pretty good agreement through the week...while only minor differences indicated over the first 5 days. I will populate the wind grids using a 50/50 blend of the 10m and 30m winds. Will also increase winds a couple of knots early today to better capture the initial gales along the Southern California coast.
Seas...both the enp and wam initialized OK across the region with only minor differences indicated between the two models. I will populate the wave grids using the enp throughout the forecast period.;
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... None.
.Pz6 California waters... .pzz820...inner waters from point St. George to Point Arena... gale possible Friday night. .Pzz825...Inner waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point... gale possible Friday into Saturday. .Pzz830...Inner waters from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas... gale possible Thursday night into Friday night. .Pzz840...Inner waters from Santa Cruz Island, CA to San Clemente Island, CA... gale today. Gale possible Thursday night into Friday night.
.Forecaster Kells/Shaw. Ocean prediction center.