marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 1257 am PDT Wed Jun 20 2018
.Forecast discussion...Major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.
The 06z surface analysis indicated high pressure centered near 32n133w, with ridge extending north into Gulf of Alaska and south to south of 30n. The most recent ascat pass from late Tuesday evening indicated the strongest winds around 20 kt over the central California coastal and offshore waters, as well as the northern portion of Southern California waters. Otherwise, winds were less than 20 kt.
The 00z models continue to be in very good agreement during the entire forecast period. A weak pressure pattered will persist the next few days which will result in winds mainly 20 kt or less over the offshore water, with some 25 kt winds over the central California coastal waters. A trough along the California coast will intensify Friday and Friday night, and moreso Saturday into Sunday night. The 00z GFS continues to indicate area of gales over the central and northern California coastal and offshore waters as early as Friday night, and then persisting into Saturday night. The GFS/UKMET and ECMWF all remain in decent agreement indicating gales over these areas, though timing is not in quite as good agreement. Will continue to use the GFS 10m winds through the period as it has been very consistent. This will result in few if any changes to existing warning headlines. The winds will decrease to below gale Sunday as the coastal trough weakens.
.Seas...The 06z sea state analysis indicated that observed seas continue to match up well with the enp forecast values, and see no need to deviate from the enp throughout.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.
.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... None.
.Pz6 California waters... .pzz820...inner waters from point St. George to Point Arena... gale possible Saturday night. .Pzz825...Inner waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point... gale possible Friday night into Saturday night.
.Forecaster kosier. Ocean prediction center.