Marine Weather for HS 102

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marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 216 am PDT Wed Oct 18 2017

.Forecast discussion...Major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.

The most recent satellite pictures show a cold front moving into the Washington and Oregon waters. The ascat pass from 06z indicates gale conditions in advance of the frontal boundary, while a ridge axis extends over the northern California waters. The overall forecast pattern will remain very progressive over the pz5 and northern pz6 area, while a stable regime persists further S. For the most part the 00z global models are in pretty good agreement given the progressive pattern. I will populate the wind grids using primarily the GFS throughout the period. Of the three main global models the GFS shows the best agreement with the UKMET, while the ECMWF is the outlier during small portions of the forecast period. I will edit some of the grids to temper some of the winds in certain spots, and get rid of gales in others.

Seas...the wam and enp initialized well at 00z. Given the differences in wave height forecast, especially in areas of highest seas, I will populate the wave grids using a 50/50 blend of the two wave models throughout the forecast period.

.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.

.Warnings...Preliminary.

.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... .pzz800...inner waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater... gale today. Gale possible Friday night into Saturday. .Pzz900...Outer waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater... gale today into tonight. Gale possible Friday night into Saturday. .Pzz805...Inner waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout... gale today into tonight. Gale possible Friday night into Saturday. .Pzz905...Outer waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout... gale today. Gale possible Friday night into Saturday. .Pzz810...Inner waters from Cape Lookout to Florence or... gale today into tonight. Gale possible Friday night. .Pzz910...Outer waters from Cape Lookout to Florence or... gale today into tonight. Gale possible Friday night. .Pzz815...Inner waters from Florence or to point St. George... gale possible Friday night. .Pzz915...Outer waters from Florence or to point St. George... gale today into tonight. Gale possible Friday night.

.Pz6 California waters... .pzz920...outer waters from point St. George to Point Arena... gale possible Friday night. .Pzz840...Inner waters from Santa Cruz Island, CA to San Clemente Island, CA... gale possible Friday night.

$$

.Forecaster Shaw. Ocean prediction center.

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