Marine Weather for HS 102

Forecast

marine weather discussion for N Pacific Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 608 PM PST Mon Dec 10 2018

.Forecast discussion...Major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Pacific N of 30n and E of 150w.

The latest model guidance indicates that the warm front currently approaching the pz5 waters will move across the waters tonight and then inland Tuesday. Gale force winds are still expected with this system. Northwest gales are then expected across the pz5 waters again by late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Another cold front will then move into the pz5 waters Wednesday night with gale force conditions. The front will then weaken across the pz5 waters by Thursday. Low pressure will then move across the pz5 waters by Thursday night with strong gales expected at this time. Farther south, high pressure centered well west of the pz6 waters is currently combining with a low pressure trof along the California coast to produce north to northwest winds up to 25 knots off the coast of central California. By late Tuesday the strongest conditions are expected to be west of Point Conception with winds up to 25 or 30 knots. Conditions will then begin to slowly diminish and by early Thursday mainly light winds are expected across the southern pz6 waters. Mainly light winds will then continue across the southern pz6 waters into Sunday. For wind grids will continue to use the current grids throughout the forecast period. Current warnings look reasonable and few changes should be needed on the next offshore waters forecast.

For wave height grids will also continue to use the current grids throughout the forecast period.

Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.

----------------------------------------------------------------- Previous discussion...

For the wind grids, leaned towards 12z GFS until 06z Thu, then switched to the 06z GFS after 06z Thu until the end of the forecast period Sat night. Did slow down 06z GFS by 6 hours around 18z Thu to slow down timing of low pressure to affect the northern offshore waters, which was in better agreement with the ECMWF and the UKMET.

Latest global model guidance still in good agreement with southerly gales moving into the northern offshore waters tonight ahead of a warm front. Latest ascat pass does show area of southerly gales to the northwest of the offshore waters. Will continue with gales for this package, with fairly high confidence.

Models also continue to show a quick burst of cold air advection moving into the northern offshore waters later Tue into Tue night behind a cold front. Continued to boost winds by 10 percent in the northwesterly flow behind the front due to instability with cold air advection. This is in line with previous forecast and confidence is moderate to high for these gales to occur with this event.

Next cold front expected to move across the northern offshore waters Wed night, with south to southwesterly gales ahead of it beginning Wed. Front then expected to stall over the northern offshore waters Thu before moving north as a warm front Thu night into Fri. 12z GFS a bit further north with the front than model consensus, and thus went with the 06z GFS solution for this event, as it was more in line with the ECMWF and UKMET solutions.

Models still uncertain with mainly the track of low pressure to move across the northern offshore waters Fri into Fri night. 12z GFS further south and weaker with the system. 06z GFS was closer to model consensus with track of the low, but was a bit too fast. Slowed down 06z GFS by six hours beginning around 18z Thu to compromise, but still a bit faster than the ECMWF and UKMET solutions. As for the winds, some guidance indicating 45 kt to possible 50 kt with this low, but capped winds to 40 kt for this package due to the uncertainty of the track of the low. Confidence is fairly high that gales will occur with this system, but less confident as to just how high the winds get, and the placement of those winds.

Global models yet again bring a strong cold front towards the northern offshore waters Sat and Sat night. Guidance seems to be in pretty good agreement with timing and strength of this system. Most of the guidance is suggesting 40 to 45 kt, with some guidance showing even 50 kt in the southerly flow ahead of the front. For a day 5 system, would prefer to be a little conservative with the winds and cap them at 35 kt for now.

.Seas...Latest wave guidance in good agreement when compared to latest surface observations. For the wave grids, leaned towards 12z enp wave watch guidance until about 06z Thu, then went towards 06z enp guidance after 06z Thu until the remainder of the forecast period Sat night. As with the winds, did slow down model by 6 hours beginning around 18z Thu and limited seas to around 27 ft for both system on Fri and Sat.

.Extratropical storm surge guidance...N/A.

.Warnings...Preliminary.

.Pz5 Washington/Oregon waters... .pzz800...inner waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater... gale tonight. Gale Tuesday night. Gale possible Wednesday night. Gale possible Thursday night into Sunday. .Pzz900...Outer waters from Cape Flattery to Cape Shoalwater... gale tonight. Gale Tuesday night into Wednesday. Gale possible Wednesday night. Gale possible Thursday night into Sunday. .Pzz805...Inner waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout... gale tonight. Gale Tuesday night. Gale possible Wednesday night. Gale possible Thursday night into Friday night. Gale possible Saturday night into Sunday. .Pzz905...Outer waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Lookout... gale tonight. Gale Tuesday night into Wednesday. Gale possible Wednesday night. Gale possible Thursday night into Sunday. .Pzz810...Inner waters from Cape Lookout to Florence or... gale Tuesday night. Gale possible Thursday night into Friday. Gale possible Saturday night into Sunday. .Pzz910...Outer waters from Cape Lookout to Florence or... gale Tuesday night. Gale possible Thursday night into Friday. Gale possible Saturday into Sunday. .Pzz815...Inner waters from Florence or to point St. George... gale Tuesday night. Gale possible Thursday night into Friday. Gale possible Saturday night into Sunday. .Pzz915...Outer waters from Florence or to point St. George... gale Tuesday night. Gale possible Thursday night into Friday. Gale possible Saturday into Sunday.

.Pz6 California waters... .pzz820...inner waters from point St. George to Point Arena... gale possible Friday. Gale possible Saturday night into Sunday. .Pzz920...Outer waters from point St. George to Point Arena... gale possible Thursday night into Friday. Gale possible Saturday night into Sunday.

$$

.Forecaster nolt/achorn. Ocean prediction center.

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