marine weather discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 159 PM EST Wed Dec 13 2017
Marine weather discussion for the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, and tropical North Atlantic from 07n to 19n between 55w and 64w and the southwest North Atlantic including the Bahamas
...Gulf of Mexico...
A cold front extending from The Straits of Florida to near Tampico Mexico will exit the basin by the afternoon. Seas over the eastern Gulf were up to 9 ft earlier, but are subsiding to 5 to 7 ft as winds diminish. Another cold front will enter the northern Gulf Thu, then reach from the Florida Big Bend area in the NE Gulf to near Tampico Mexico by Fri afternoon, then stall from Tampa to the Bay of Campeche on Sat before lifting back to the W and NW through sun as a warm front over the western Gulf. Good cold air advection and a tight pressure gradient will allow gale force winds along the coast of Mexico near Tampico Fri afternoon and night, and farther south off Veracruz by late Fri night. Seas will build to 8 to 11 ft, maybe a little higher off the coast of Mexico in the area of gale force winds Fri night into Sat. Fresh to strong southerly flow is anticipated over the north central Gulf by late Sat behind the warm front. Looking ahead, another cold front may enter the NW Gulf late sun into Mon, although there is some uncertainty among global models regarding the timing and strength. The official forecast will reflect a consensus approach for now showing a modest frontal boundary moving across the western Gulf through Mon.
...Caribbean Sea and tropical N Atlantic from 07n to 19n between 55w and 64w...
A weakening stationary front extending from the Windward Passage to central Panama will dissipate to a remnant trough tonight. An earlier scatterometer satellite pass along with a concurrent altimeter pass indicated fresh to strong northerly winds and seas to 9 ft between the front and coast of Central America south of 18n. The winds and seas will gradually diminish from the through Thu evening as the front weakens.
Meanwhile farther north, moderate to locally fresh northerly winds will follow another front entering the northwest Caribbean later this morning through the afternoon. The front will stall from central Cuba to central Honduras Thu and dissipate Thu night. High pressure will build behind the front allowing for the return of strong nocturnal trades offshore of Colombia starting Thu, with at least near gale force winds possible Sat night and Sun night. The fresh to strong trades will cover the entire central Caribbean for the second half of the weekend into early next week, with plumes of stronger winds across the approaches to the windward and Mona passages.
...SW N Atlantic including the Bahamas...
A cold front reaching from 31n70w to The Straits of Florida will move se and reach from 26n65w by early Thu before stalling and eventually dissipating along 22n into Fri. Winds were reaching gales force earlier ahead of the front near 30n, but are now diminishing below gale force. Winds and seas will diminish across the region Thu as a ridge builds along 25n through Thu in the wake of the front. Strong southerly winds will increase again Thu night north of 27n ahead of another cold front that will move off the NE Florida coast early Fri, and reach from Bermuda to South Florida Sat, before reaching from 24n65w to eastern Cuba early sun. High pressure builds off the Carolina coast in the wake of the front, maintaining moderate to fresh trade winds south of 22n through sun. Looking ahead, there is some indication southerly winds will increase off the NE Florida coast Mon ahead of yet another front moving off the se United States coast, but timing and strength remain uncertain at this time.
.Warnings...Any changes impacting coastal NWS offices will be coordinated through AWIPS ii collaboration chat, or by telephone:
.Gulf of Mexico... .gmz017...W central Gulf from 22n to 26n W of 94w... gale conditions possible Fri into Fri night. .Gmz023...SW Gulf S of 22n W of 94w... gale conditions possible Fri night.
.Caribbean Sea and tropical N Atlantic from 07n to 19n between 55w and 64w... .Amz031...Caribbean from 11n to 15n between 72w and 80w including Colombia basin... gale conditions possible Sat night. Gale conditions possible Sun night.
.SW N Atlantic including the Bahamas... None.
*For detailed zone descriptions, please visit: http://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/abouttafbprod.Shtml#owf
Note: gridded marine forecasts are available in the National digital forecast database (ndfd) at: http://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/marine/grids.Php
For additional information, please visit: http://www.NHC.NOAA.Gov/marine
.Forecaster Christensen. National Hurricane Center.