marine weather discussion for N Atlantic Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 247 am EST Sat Feb 16 2019
.Forecast discussion...Major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.
There was a high resolution ascat pass at 0130z with a swath across the eastern areas of the New England waters where model guidance indicated the strongest winds were across the offshore waters. Max winds were to 35 kt over the eastern edge of the swath with winds to 40 kt along or just east of a warm front that was currently lifting N. Data from buoy observation 44037 showed about 31 kt with gusts to 38 kt while elevated platform Mount Desert Rock had sustained winds to 40 kt. This data supported the evening gfe grids for this region.
At 06z a cold front is now along the New England coast through the Delmarva coast and moves quickly se across the New England waters into the northern and central mid Atlc offshore through this morning. Model guidance is similar with low pressure tracking NE along the front over the central mid Atlc by early afternoon. The low pressure tracks E of the offshore waters with associated winds to about 25 kt or 30 kt. A high pressure ridge crosses the N and central waters tonight through through sun evening. There are differences among model guidance with the low pressure that crosses the central and northern mid Atlc waters Sun night into Mon. Models do show the low pressure strengthening while crossing the waters. The question is how quickly will be the strengthening of low as it moves over the offshore waters on Mon. The GFS does agree with the UKMET on the position of the low Mon and its track E of the waters Mon night. The GFS and Gem are stronger with the winds than the UKMET and ECMWF as the low pressure moves into the outer waters and E of the area. Will favor the UKMET and have gales along the outer waters Mon into Mon night. With the cold air advection will boost the winds a bit as instability occurs later on Mon into Mon night with the greatest affect over the outer waters. Plan to favor the UKMET from 12z Mon through 12z Wed. From late Wed into Wed night will use the 00z ECMWF which have developing low pressure near Delmarva late Wed into Wed night and track low pressure on a similar track through Thu. Will cap the winds at 30 kt during this event with confidence not great at the moment.
.Seas...Will use a 50/50 blend of the wwiii and ECMWF wam through 12z Mon. Will use the wwiii from 12z Mon through 12z Tue, then will use the ECMWF wam the remainder of the forecast period.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...No significant positive surge events are expected during the next several days. For more details please monitor the latest forecast and information from your local National Weather Service office.
.Nt1 New England waters... None.
.Nt2 mid-Atlantic waters... .anz920...Baltimore Canyon to the great South Channel... gale possible Monday night. .Anz905...The great South Channel to the Hague line... gale possible Monday night. .Anz910...East of the great South Channel and south of 39n... gale possible Monday into Monday night. .Anz925...Outer waters from Baltimore Canyon to Hatteras Canyon... gale possible Monday night.
.Forecaster Rowland. Ocean prediction center.