marine weather discussion for N Atlantic Ocean NWS ocean prediction center Washington DC 410 am EDT Wed Oct 17 2018
.Forecast discussion...Major features/winds/seas/significant .Weather for the North Atlantic ocean W of 50w from 30n to 50n.
The 06z surface analysis shows a stationary front extending E from Hatteras across the offshore waters, while a weakening ridge axis persists over the southern nt2 waters. The ascat pass from 00z indicates the strongest winds have moved E of offshore waters, while a general W 10-20 kt is occurring across much of the nt1 area. S of the stationary boundary the winds are generally variable 5-15 kt. The overall forecast pattern will remain quite progressive during the upcoming week as a series of frontal passages cross the region, each bringing a period of gales. The 00z global models are in in pretty good agreement for the most part, with just slight differences in the timing of the frontal boundaries as they cross the waters. The 00z ECMWF is also very consistent with the prior runs and remains slightly slower than the GFS. I will populate the wind grids using the hireswarw through 00z Fri, then transition to the ECMWF to 18z Sat. From 18z Sat through 18z sun I will keep the official grids in order to keep good continuity with prior forecast. After 18z sun through the remainder of the forecast period I will use the 00z ECMWF.
Seas...both the wna and wam were initialized pretty well at 00z. Since I populated with the ECMWF through much of the wind grids I will use the wam for the waves, except during the period where I used the official grids for the winds, I used the official grids for the seas as well.
.Extratropical storm surge guidance...There is the potential for surge to near one foot off of the far southern South Carolina and Georgia coasts late Thursday into Friday on both the etss and estofs guidance. Both the etss and estofs show a maximum of negative surge, to up to around 2 feet on the estofs, from Delmarva to the se coast of Maine Wednesday night into Thu. Keep abreast of the latest forecasts from coastal National Weather Service offices.
.Nt1 New England waters... .anz800...Gulf of Maine... gale tonight into Thursday night. .Anz805...Georges Bank west of 68w... gale tonight into Thursday. .Anz900...Georges Bank east of 68w... gale tonight into Thursday night. Gale possible Saturday into Saturday night. .Anz810...South of New England... gale tonight into Thursday. .Anz815...South of Long Island... gale tonight into Thursday.
.Nt2 mid-Atlantic waters... .anz820...Hudson Canyon to Baltimore Canyon... gale tonight. .Anz915...Hudson Canyon to the great South Channel... gale tonight into Thursday. Gale possible Saturday night. .Anz920...Baltimore Canyon to the great South Channel... gale tonight. Gale possible Saturday into Saturday night. .Anz905...The great South Channel to the Hague line... gale tonight into Thursday night. Gale possible Saturday into Saturday night. .Anz910...East of the great South Channel and south of 39n... gale tonight into Thursday. Gale possible Saturday into Saturday night. .Anz925...Outer waters from Baltimore Canyon to Hatteras Canyon... gale today. Gale possible Saturday into Sunday. .Anz830...Inner waters from Currituck Beach Light to Cape Hatteras... gale today. Gale possible Saturday into Saturday night. .Anz833...Inner waters from Cape Hatteras to Cape Fear... gale today. Gale possible Saturday into Saturday night. .Anz930...Outer waters from Hatteras Canyon to Cape Fear... gale today. Gale possible Saturday into Saturday night.
.Forecaster Shaw. Ocean prediction center.