Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktbw 210702
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
302 am EDT Fri Sep 21 2018
morning water vapor imagery and upper air analysis shows broad high
pressure over the southeast with a couple of weak retrograding lows-
one off the East Coast of Florida and the other moving into the
central Gulf of Mexico. At the surface, high pressure well to the
north of the region extends southward over the area, with easterly
flow in place.
For today, high pressure aloft over the southeast will start to
slide eastward as a weak low moves westward across the state.
Surface high pressure to our north will keep an easterly flow in
place across the region. Some relatively drier air will nose in to
the north-Central Peninsula from the northeast, keeping rain chances
a bit lower in those spots. Highest rain chances will be south of
the I-4 corridor along the coast, where easterly flow will meet with
a weak West Coast sea breeze.
The weak low aloft will continue to shift farther westward this
weekend as the ridge over the Atlantic extends back over the region
through next week. Surface high pressure will remain stretched from
the mid-Atlantic region over the local area, keeping an easterly
flow in place. In general, we can expect fairly typical late
summertime conditions through the week, with warm and humid
conditions along with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period outside of
any shower and thunderstorm activity. Light and variable winds
overnight will become easterly for Friday, with a weak sea breeze
trying to form at the coast as the day wears on. This leads to a
rather tricky wind forecast for the coastal sites, which could
briefly see variable or onshore winds for a time this afternoon.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible at all sites from around
18z through the evening.
easterly flow will remain across the waters into next week, with a
weak sea breeze forming along the coast each afternoon. In general,
winds and seas will remain below headlines, but will be higher in or
near showers and thunderstorms.
no fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain
above critical levels. A typical distribution of scattered showers
and thunderstorms can be expected. No significant fog is anticipated.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 91 76 90 76 / 40 10 50 30
fmy 91 75 90 75 / 70 40 40 40
gif 90 75 90 74 / 20 0 40 20
srq 89 76 89 75 / 60 30 50 40
bkv 91 73 90 73 / 30 10 40 20
spg 91 77 90 77 / 40 20 50 30
Florida...Beach hazards statement through Monday evening for coastal
Charlotte-coastal Manatee-coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.