Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 ktbw 181143
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin Florida
643 am EST Mon Feb 18 2019
IFR to local LIFR cigs are overspreading coastal terminals
this morning from south to north. These ceiling
restrictions should begin to improve by 15z. VFR conditions
return while south winds become southwest and increase to
around 10 knots by afternoon, with slightly higher gusts.
Prev discussion... /issued 241 am EST Mon Feb 18 2019/
Short term (today - tuesday)...
weak cool front entering the Florida pan handle this morning
will stall between Tampa and Fort Myers overnight, then move
north as a warm front Tuesday. Sea breeze sets up this
afternoon with a small chance of low topped showers inland.
Not much forcing with front overnight or the warm front on
Tuesday. Low chances of showers.
Long term (tuesday night - sunday)...
long wave trough in the western U.S. Begins to fill and
move northeastward Wednesday. A second wave digs into the
southwest U.S. Friday then ejects northeast over the
weekend. This dampens our subtropical ridge but not enough
to change our warm and mostly dry pattern. Most of the area
south of a Tampa to Sebring line will be dry the next 7
days. Otherwise the forecast varies from 0.02" in Lakeland
to 0.24" in Chiefland.
a week cold front will move into the northern waters this
afternoon then stall between Tampa and Fort Myers overnight.
The front will then move northward on Tuesday as a warm
front. Only isolated showers are expected. Unseasonably
moist air could lead to sea fog from time to time. Winds
remain below 15 knots and seas 2 to 4 feet through Friday
a weak cold front settles between Tampa and Fort Myers
overnight. The best chance of fog will be near this stalled
front. The front moves north Tuesday as a warm front.
Unseasonably warm and humid conditions continue. Most areas
will not see rain the next two days.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
tpa 67 82 69 83 / 10 20 20 20
fmy 70 87 69 86 / 10 10 10 20
gif 66 84 68 86 / 20 30 10 20
srq 68 82 67 80 / 10 20 10 10
bkv 64 82 67 84 / 10 20 20 30
spg 68 80 68 81 / 10 20 10 10