Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
651 am EDT Friday may 24 2013
Synopsis...
much cooler air turns drier and today progresses. Chilly high
pressure takes charge tonight into Saturday. Warm front in lower
Ohio Valley gradually shifts NE toward Memorial Day and Tuesday.
&&
Near term /through Saturday/...
final cold front pushing across County Warning Area at this time...at 08z it was
stretching from Clarksburg south to around the WV/VA/KY
intersection. Still seeing some gusty winds along and just behind
the front...which should subside some early this morning before
picking back up with mixing today. Dewpoints also dropping into the
upper 30s behind the front...and expect skies to gradually clear
from west to east across the forecast area today as the moisture
continues east and cool high pressure begins to build over Lake
Michigan. Highs today will be 10-15 degrees cooler than
yesterday...mav/met fairly close...and settled generally between the
two.
The cool high pressure will move over forecast area tonight...with
an unseasonably chilly start to the Memorial Day weekend. Mav a bit
cooler than the met...and again settled in between. This gives
around...to just below freezing for the northern mountains...so
opted for a freeze warning there. A bit harder to figure out where
frost may form due to the warm...wet ground...continued breeze
overnight...and relatively short night to boot. Decided on a frost
advisory across northern two tiers of counties...with continued
mention in severe weather potential statement for the rest of the County Warning Area. Despite temperatures being
cold enough in parts of the southern mountainous counties...thinking
it will remain mixy enough to Nix any frost formation even at 34-36
degrees. At any rate...campers celebrating the unofficial start of
Summer...or those with early morning soccer or baseball will wake up
to a chilly Saturday morning.
&&
Short term /Saturday night through Monday night/...
most notable changes made toward Memorial Day. Timing the eventual
northeast movement as a warm front...of the frontal zone setting up
over the lower Ohio Valley into the Tennessee Valley is a
challenge.
One disturbance rides from northwest to southeast overnight Saturday night into
early Sunday...but will keep any spotty light rain to our SW-S. Did
have more clouds over our southern counties in the form of some
patchy middle/high clouds. Further north...Saturday night will still
be mostly clear and chilly especially for northern and central West
Virginia. Did include some frost in our central WV mountain
counties for the early dawn Sunday.
Will increase probability of precipitation on Monday...thinking the warm front will begin
lifting northeast...at least over the Midwest...leaving US
vulnerable downstream. How active the warm front is...is another
dilemma.
&&
Long term /Tuesday through Thursday/...
high pressure remains in control to at least early Wednesday
providing dry weather with a slow warming trend.
Another middle level shortwave will move through Sunday night for low
chance for rain showers into Monday.
A warm front develops as it approaches the region on Monday. As a
result...there will be a chance of showers and storms Monday and
Tuesday...mainly during the afternoon and evening hours.
For Saturday...temperatures should be near normal with daytime
highs in the 70s across lowlands...with 60s across the higher
elevations. Temperatures will continue to climb in the upper to
middle 80s by the end of the week. Lows will ranging in the 60s.
&&
Aviation /12z Friday through Tuesday/...
for the most part showers have ended across the forecast
area...with MVFR ceilings remaining across The Lowlands and low
MVFR to IFR in the mountains. Ceilings should gradually improve to
VFR from west to east today. Breezy to gusty winds will continue
today out of the N/NW...decreasing some as the sun sets tonight.
Dry air filtering in should keep widespread fog chances at Bay
across The Lowlands tonight...and winds in the higher terrain
should also keep any dense fog away. With that said...very chilly
air over relative warm water in the rivers could produce some
localized MVFR fog by early Saturday morning in river valleys.
Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 12z Saturday...
Forecast confidence...high.
Alternate scenarios: timing of dissipation of MVFR/IFR ceilings
this morning may vary a couple of hours.
Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of weather forecast office forecast to available model information:
h = high: taf consistent with all models or all but one model.
M = medium: taf has varying level of consistency with models.
L = low: taf inconsistent with all models or all but one model.
UTC 1hrly 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EDT 1hrly 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
heights consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h M h M M h h h h h h
ekn consistency h h M l h h h h h h h h
pkb consistency M M h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h M h h h h h h h
After 12z Saturday...
IFR conditions possible in fog early Saturday morning.
&&
Equipment...
krlx 88d remains down. Awaiting new parts.
&&
Rlx watches/warnings/advisories...
WV...frost advisory from 2 am to 8 am EDT Saturday for wvz009>011-
019-020-028>032-039-040.
Freeze warning from 2 am to 8 am EDT Saturday for wvz037-038-
046-047.
Ohio...frost advisory from 2 am to 8 am EDT Saturday for ohz066-067-
075-076.
Kentucky...none.
Virginia...none.
&&
$$
Synopsis...ktb/mz
near term...mz
short term...ktb
long term...arj
aviation...mz
equipment...ktb
