AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
658 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WILL WORK INLAND THIS
EVENING AND EVENTUALLY ENCOMPASS A MAJORITY OF THE AREA BEFORE 05Z
(MIDNIGHT). SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DECREASE A BIT AFTER
SUNSET...BUT EXPECT SPEEDS TO REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT CEILINGS TO IMPROVE UNTIL AROUND MID
MORNING TOMORROW...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON UNDER GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS.
SHOULD SEE MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON
NEAR THE COAST AND THEN SPREAD INLAND TOMORROW EVENING. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SE TX WAS UNDER A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
LOW CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS AND ROCKIES. THE LOW WILL
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. AS IT DOES...THE MODELS PUSH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AS
THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS SE TX. A DRIER PERIOD IS THEN EXPECTED AS AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS AND THE
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
IN THE SHORT TERM...ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS IN STORE FOR SE TX ON
MONDAY AS A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
AREA. THE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT CAP
IN PLACE. EVEN THOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS WERE BRINGING IN A BIT OF
QPF...FELT THAT A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WILL BE A REPEAT OF THE
LAST TWO DAYS WITH THE EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER DISSIPATING
DURING THE MID AND LATE MORNING. CONTINUED THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAIN ON TUESDAY.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE GFS FORECAST THE TROUGH TO
BE FURTHER TO THE NORTH THAN THE GFS. THE GFS AND NAM BUFR MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS BOTH ERODE THE CAP TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS
ARE ALSO FORECASTING SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS THAN THEY WERE
YESTERDAY. PW/S ARE NOW FORECASTED TO REACH BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7
INCHES. FELT THAT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS WILL BE
MORE OVER NORTH TEXAS...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STRONG OR SEVERE STORM OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. BECAUSE OF THE SLIGHTLY CONFLICTING STRENGTHS OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...DECIDED TO KEEP THE RAIN
CHANCES THE SAME TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
FOR THE LAST PART OF THE FORECAST...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
HELP WARM UP THE AIR MASS BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. FELT THAT THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE
GUIDANCE WAS ON TRACK.
MARINE...
MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY AND
WILL CARRY A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FOR ALL THE
WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY DROP OFF TOWARD MID WEEK.
46
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 73 92 73 91 73 / 10 10 10 20 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 75 91 74 90 73 / 10 10 10 20 30
GALVESTON (GLS) 75 79 75 80 73 / 10 10 10 10 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 5 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...42
